2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[chainsaw 9474]

I love how, when it's Trump saying to execute Liz Cheney, it's incumbent on us to scour the internet for context and we're being disingenuous for criticizing his choice of words and violent imagery, but when it's Biden stepping on his words while defending Puerto Ricans and borrowing the words of a hack comedian to admonish that comedian, we need to disregard Biden's clarification and the fact that he's been a lifelong stutterer.

[Js1 82606]

3 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Well he’s not finishing (giggity) in Wisconsin so that’s a sign. It’s also a sign that he’s camping out the final hours in Nawf Carolina. 

that doesn’t signal to me a campaign that thinks they are winning but I’l defer to @Js1 and @Bozo_Casanova.

Him cancelling his appearance at the Ohio State-Penn St game, in State College, read like "bailing," while his campaign is terrified of losing North Carolina, so he's finishing up there. 

1 appearance in Michigan - probably conceding it
0 in Wisconsin
0 in Arizona
0 in Nevada
3 in PA
4 in NC 

Either they are absolutely delusional about where they stand in the blue wall or he's flailing.  And based on his Truth Social rants and Kirk, et al., flipping out about the senior + female vote in PA, they aren't confident.  

They're playing defense.

Edited 4 hours ago by Js1

[GreenspointTexas 9357]

33 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Right?  Oh no... the panhandle turnout is shooting up like crazy.  We now have to contend with at least 50-100 more Trump voters.  Like is there anyone left there that doesn't vote Trump?

2020 county results and as a Travis County resident all I can say 

Good job Marfa/Presidio

Alpine/Marathon…. Get your shit together

 

[South Austin 51506]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

They're playing defense.

With Gary Darnell as DC.

[SimonBolivar 10656]

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

that doesn’t signal to me a campaign that thinks they are winning

I don't know what's going to happen, but I do know that one side is going to be incredibly disappointed. Both sides have convinced themselves that they are absolutely going to win based on the available data. Of course, the Ds are taking a relatively measured approach but that's just the nature of the base.

[Born to Run 6220]

18 minutes ago, safe sex said:

Not like...good ones

Bullshit, there is an awesome dispensary in Bee Cave that feels exactly like a Cali or CO shop crossed with a coffee house. Great experience. A fourth of an indica gummy and I'm sleeping great.

So nice not flying back with a bag full of weed.

[BamaATL 15786]

29 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I know @BamaATL mentioned it, but in case it got lost, Georgia is confirming fast results on Tuesday.

All early voting will release about an hour after polls close and Georgia officials anticipate being done counting by midnight. 

Hard for me to see this drag through the week - GA says they will finish Tuesday night, FL is fast, NC is pretty quick, Michigan/Wisconsin are quicker than 2020 and PA had a Senate call just after 1am eastern time, so there's 5 of your 7 swing states who could finish or be close to finished Tuesday night.  We will, of course, wait all week for NV/AZ due to how slowly they count the mail and how long it can be received for. 

I do believe we will have a winner in Georgia relatively early, however, I'm not convinced that every county will be on the same schedule of data dumps.  I.E., while the plan is for everyone to start dumping data from EV at 8 EST, I think that's unrealistic.  I still expect big counties to lag.  

[SydneyCarton 47177]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Him cancelling his appearance at the Ohio State-Penn St game, in State College, read like "bailing," while his campaign is terrified of losing North Carolina, so he's finishing up there. 

1 appearance in Michigan - probably conceding it
0 in Wisconsin
0 in Arizona
0 in Nevada
3 in PA
4 in NC 

Either they are absolutely delusional about where they stand in the blue wall or he's flailing.  And based on his Truth Social rants and Kirk, et al., flipping out about the senior + female vote in PA, they aren't confident.  

They're playing defense.

He still has 3 stops in PA. He should cancel Michigan and not the football game. Except little bitch doesn’t want to get boo’d. 

[Bozo_Casanova 25579]

Just now, Pancho said:

Well he’s not finishing (giggity) in Wisconsin so that’s a sign. It’s also a sign that he’s camping out the final hours in Nawf Carolina. 

that doesn’t signal to me a campaign that thinks they are winning but I’l defer to @Js1 and @Bozo_Casanova.

I think they think they are winning, and in the same way that you wouldn't evaluate Texas chances in a tie game against Bama based on the sideline behavior of Kalen DeBoer, I don't take we can take anything from how the Trump campaign acts or where they go, other than that it's a combination of shoring up their support in the places they need and making the weather they want Harris to contend with. 
John McLaughlin went on Tara Palmeri's podcast and wasn't chest beating, but talked through their theory of winning and said he was cautiously optimistic. The Tony Fabrizio memos are more bombastic, but all of them contain some version of saying that their projections depend on various assumptions that were baked into their strategy from the beginning, which essentially means "we will win unless we are wrong about us winning."
Unlike 2016 and to a greater degree than 2020, Trump's campaign has a strategy to win and is applying it in a somewhat professional manner. They are acting in support of their strategy, and they think it's working. The Harris team is doing the same things. 

[The Dog 42773]

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Him cancelling his appearance at the Ohio State-Penn St game, in State College, read like "bailing," while his campaign is terrified of losing North Carolina, so he's finishing up there. 

1 appearance in Michigan - probably conceding it
0 in Wisconsin
0 in Arizona
0 in Nevada
3 in PA
4 in NC 

Either they are absolutely delusional about where they stand in the blue wall or he's flailing.  And based on his Truth Social rants and Kirk, et al., flipping out about the senior + female vote in PA, they aren't confident.  

They're playing defense.

PA is also one of the very few states where Trump has a ground game. IIRC he has about the same number of offices there as Harris - but that may not be the case anymore.

[Pancho 41915]

 

[wildcat09 28396]

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I think they think they are winning, and in the same way that you wouldn't evaluate Texas chances in a tie game against Bama based on the sideline behavior of Kalen DeBoer, I don't take we can take anything from how the Trump campaign acts or where they go, other than that it's a combination of shoring up their support in the places they need and making the weather they want Harris to contend with. 
John McLaughlin went on Tara Palmeri's podcast and wasn't chest beating, but talked through their theory of winning and said he was cautiously optimistic. The Tony Fabrizio memos are more bombastic, but all of them contain some version of saying that their projections depend on various assumptions that were baked into their strategy from the beginning, which essentially means "we will win unless we are wrong about us winning."
Unlike 2016 and to a greater degree than 2020, Trump's campaign has a strategy to win and is applying it in a somewhat professional manner. They are acting in support of their strategy, and they think it's working. The Harris team is doing the same things. 

Fabrizio giving Trump the RCP averages rather than his own polling tells me they know he's losing, but don't want to tell him that.

[BamaATL 15786]

2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I do believe we will have a winner in Georgia relatively early, however, I'm not convinced that every county will be on the same schedule of data dumps.  I.E., while the plan is for everyone to start dumping data from EV at 8 EST, I think that's unrealistic.  I still expect big counties to lag.  

I should add, however, that once the big EV dump occurs in all counties, if my math is more or less correct, we will have approximately 75% of all votes accounted for.  That's why I think Georgia will be called fairly early either way, because the bulk of the remaining vote will be Atlanta, and the math gets pretty easy for analysts at that point.  I've been saying Wasserman says he's seen enough come 10:30 est, and right now, I'd actually bet the under on that.  

[G650 13071]

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I think they think they are winning, and in the same way that you wouldn't evaluate Texas chances in a tie game against Bama based on the sideline behavior of Kalen DeBoer, I don't take we can take anything from how the Trump campaign acts or where they go, other than that it's a combination of shoring up their support in the places they need and making the weather they want Harris to contend with. 
John McLaughlin went on Tara Palmeri's podcast and wasn't chest beating, but talked through their theory of winning and said he was cautiously optimistic. The Tony Fabrizio memos are more bombastic, but all of them contain some version of saying that their projections depend on various assumptions that were baked into their strategy from the beginning, which essentially means "we will win unless we are wrong about us winning."
Unlike 2016 and to a greater degree than 2020, Trump's campaign has a strategy to win and is applying it in a somewhat professional manner. They are acting in support of their strategy, and they think it's working. The Harris team is doing the same things. 

Overall I think this is correct. I have sensed a little uptick in the Harris campaign vibes and maybe pause in the Turnip campaign ones this week though. I'm guessing that is probably from analysis of where the votes are coming from so far but that's just a shot in the dark.

[South Austin 51506]

3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

PA is also one of the very few states where Trump has a ground game. IIRC he has about the same number of offices there as Harris - but that may not be the case anymore.

That's a lot of Pennsylvania landlords who are getting stiffed on office rent.

[Born to Run 6220]

43 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Final turnip schedule 

 

That's the frantic pace that ygifs predicted would finally end Trump.  Lets fucking go!

Also he's going to be 4 hours or more late to the later rallies. People are going to be passing out, sleeping, leaving maybe dieing.

[Hank Kingsley 19877]

8 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I love how, when it's Trump saying to execute Liz Cheney, it's incumbent on us to scour the internet for context and we're being disingenuous for criticizing his choice of words and violent imagery, but when it's Biden stepping on his words while defending Puerto Ricans and borrowing the words of a hack comedian to admonish that comedian, we need to disregard Biden's clarification and the fact that he's been a lifelong stutterer.

It's been almost 10 years of this shit with Trump. Republicans abandoned good faith and sincere discussion at least a generation ago. It takes a lot of discipline to defeat this bullshit, and that discipline is impossible due to social media where any asshole can "report" indiscretions and flood the zone with information. Everything gets muddled and serious scandals become less likely to be properly absorbed by voters. 

 

[Gatorubet 29446]

10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This.  Lawyers on here.  Discussing the law.  Yet, not fully grasping the truth that when it comes to the Amarillo division, the 5th Cir., and SCOTUS....the "law" doesn't matter.  At all. As in, it matters 0.0%.  They will rule how they want, for who they want, to get the result they want.  And that's it.  That's the entire game. In much of this country, "the rule of law" does not exist anymore. 

How timely.  I just read a Louisiana Supreme Court decision from last week.  I was flabbergasted, so I called the attorney representing the plaintiff, who I knew, and he confirmed that the plaintiff was an undocumented Hispanic who got a fake ID in Texas and then move to Louisiana to do dangerous work at a recycling center.

During an outage, a 3000 pound steel plate fell on the guy and it is a miracle he lived. Crushed every bone in his body and massive internal injuries. Weirdly he survived.   While he was laying unconscious in the hospital, he was automatically set up with Worker’s Compensation medical care.

When he lived, he went to see an attorney to sue the company who made the defective components that crushed him.  Suit was filed under the name on the medical records . The plaintiff never signed a verified petition, and never answered verified discovery. 

The client eventually disclosed his true identity, and after notifying defendant, the suit was amended.  Lawyers for recycling center filed a motion to dismiss for lying to the court about his identity….that he disclosed voluntarily.   Louisiana is the only state in the country that is not common law.  We do not follow president, and decisions are merely a courts attempt at interpreting the civil code, and the civil code always wins.

In this case the plaintiff opposed the motion by reminding the court that the Louisiana Constitution says that the only sanctions a court can give must come from the legislature.  The sanction for lying to the court is a $500 fine and up to 90 days in jail.  There is no statute or code in Louisiana that allows a dismissal of a claim for misrepresenting your name to a court (you can get dismissed for lying under oath in a deposition or discovery if the offense is bad enough). The plaintiff did none of those things.

Another rule of Louisiana civil law is that if there is a legislative expression on something, like the maximum penalty for misrepresentation to a court, that statute or code article controls to the exclusion of any judge made rule.  

Republicans on the Louisiana Supreme Court dismissed the case entirely, citing two federal out of state cases as grounds for the dismissal. Remember, we don’t follow precedent and we certainly don’t follow precedent from common law states under federal court procedures in our state Civil law system.  

The decision also specifically directed everyone to check and monitor their client to see if they were illegal aliens.  I guess we have to give the third degree to any brown person or someone with a Hispanic name. We might need papers to cross the state line next.

I can’t even begin to tell you how Completely intellectually dishonest  that decision was, or the depth to which they ignored every important principle of Louisiana law to come to that decision.

This is a long post to say that Brisket is correct.

[Clintonaldo 2320]

Why anyone is trying to apply logic to Trump’s campaign is beyond me. He will go where he thinks he gets the biggest crowd. That’s all there is to it. 

[safe sex 11554]

Ok well agree to disagree on the quality of weed products in Texas vs legal states. 

[Js1 82606]

8 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

John McLaughlin went on Tara Palmeri's podcast and wasn't chest beating, but talked through their theory of winning and said he was cautiously optimistic.

Never forget, McLaughlin was the pollster who told Eric Cantor he would win his primary by 34 points. He lost by 11

The RNC told campaigns not to use or trust McLaughlin's data. 

 

[TwiceHorn 30764]

25 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

SIAP

 

Dick is way too big.  I may be seeing shadow, but still too big.

[safe sex 11554]

 Also who the fuck FLIES back with weed? FedEx overnight that shit like a civilized person

Edited 3 hours ago by safe sex

[heso 2559]

23 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

So basically the GOP said "Vote early, but make it a mail in ballot, so it will take time to tabulate and I can scream Fraud." Not surprisingly, but Jesus the detail that went into them claiming fraud is insane. 

 

There’s technically no early voting in PA, only mail in. But you can go to the county elections office and request a mail in ballot in person, fill it out right there, and then put it into the mail in ballot drop box. 

[texasdago 7385]

Some good analysis from CNN for your daily hopium hit:

https://www.threads.net/@republicansagainsttrump/post/DByr3o1R7NE?xmt=AQGzX2tO5RfqKWONvHEdTxGFyEzjWEP3mucnSiP-JbjFgw

[Js1 82606]

PA Firewall update:

394k (D-R) - Dems have surpassed this portion of the firewall
441k (D-R and winning indies 70-30)

Should grow some more after the Monday update that covers Fri-Sat-Sun

Edited 3 hours ago by Js1

[heso 2559]

24 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Well no, in-person early voting in PA is basically being handed a mail-in ballot, filling it out and handing it back.  It's kind of dumb, but it is essentially "in-person early mail voting."  These in-person requests categorize as a requested mail ballot, which is why the GOP's request and return rates increased last week. 

The only true "in person voting" by machine is Tuesday. 

Beat me to it. 

It’s a way to allow early voting within the constraints of the law that was passed expanding mail in voting in 2019. 

[TexEx15 16849]

 

Edited 3 hours ago by TexEx15

[chainsaw 9474]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

PA Firewall update:

394k (D-R) - Dems have surpassed this portion of the firewall
441k (D-R and winning indies 70-30) - 441k

Should grow some more after the Monday update that covers Fri-Sat-Sun

Do we have an idea how many people will be trickling in on those dates?

[Hank Kingsley 19877]

27 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Agreed. The democratic strategists that told Donald Trump to bring up Liz Cheney in an interview and suggest she get shot should be seriously reprimanded for this stupidity...

C'mon, man. Bigger picture, his Cheney comments are an absolute nothingburger. The fact that it's taking up oxygen for Democrats 3 days before the election really sucks. 

 

[BurntOrange&White 38733]

Wonder what the percentages will be overall as well as per state for registered R's who voted for Kamala? Any educated guesses? 

[Js1 82606]

Just now, chainsaw said:

Do we have an idea how many people will be trickling in on those dates?

Nope, but "in person" early voting in PA ended on Wednesday

Thursday - 1,625,706

Friday - 1,688,551

So looks like ~53k ballots got processed overnight.  Maybe 150-200k ballots to report Monday?  Smithley expects both Dems and GOP to get into the low-80s in return % (Dems 79%, GOP 77.5% right now) 

[Brisketexan 103260]

16 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I think they think they are winning, and in the same way that you wouldn't evaluate Texas chances in a tie game against Bama based on the sideline behavior of Kalen DeBoer, I don't take we can take anything from how the Trump campaign acts or where they go, other than that it's a combination of shoring up their support in the places they need and making the weather they want Harris to contend with. 
John McLaughlin went on Tara Palmeri's podcast and wasn't chest beating, but talked through their theory of winning and said he was cautiously optimistic. The Tony Fabrizio memos are more bombastic, but all of them contain some version of saying that their projections depend on various assumptions that were baked into their strategy from the beginning, which essentially means "we will win unless we are wrong about us winning."
Unlike 2016 and to a greater degree than 2020, Trump's campaign has a strategy to win and is applying it in a somewhat professional manner. They are acting in support of their strategy, and they think it's working. The Harris team is doing the same things. 

 

15 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Bottom line: ain't nobody know what's gonna happen.  There are so many predictions out there that yes, ONE of them will surely be right, but that doesn't mean they are particularly brilliant or prescient.  It just means that if you get 10,000 guesses, odds are that a person or two is going to get it right and correctly state that there are 1,455 jelly beans in the jar.  That's it.

Tuesday could absolutely go either way.

And based on this timeline, always bet on the worst outcome.  Because fuck us.  

[David Dennison 17694]

3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

C'mon, man. Bigger picture, his Cheney comments are an absolute nothingburger. The fact that it's taking up oxygen for Democrats 3 days before the election really sucks. 

 

What do you want Democrats to be talking about? Policy?

Sir, this is America.

[Bozo_Casanova 25579]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Never forget, McLaughlin was the pollster who told Eric Cantor he would win his primary by 34 points. He lost by 11

The RNC told campaigns not to use or trust McLaughlin's data. 

 

I'm not going to defend John McLaughlin (well, maybe if it came to a head to head between him and Mark Penn), but he was right about 2016 and deep inside the campaign so I figure he's good for a vibe check.

[MissingInAction 24278]

11 hours ago, 6th Street said:

God damn you! There's a fucking Chili's within walking distance to me.

[RDCanecutter 25808]

1 hour ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

i wish some prominent Dem would tell Trump supporters to eat shit.  i'd set up a food truck immediately and serve nothing but heaping plates of steaming dog shit, cat shit, baboon shit, orangutan shit (we have a local zoo so i'd get paid to shovel it and turn profit on it)...all kinds of shit, whatever shit they wanted to eat to troll the Dems, i'd sell it to 'em.  heaping plates of it.

You got Gibbon Shit? But not too salty. Those other guys put too much salt on it. I want to taste the gibbon, not the salt.

[chainsaw 9474]

2 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

God damn you! There's a fucking Chili's within walking distance to me.

waddling distance

[Pato del Muerto 51933]

27 minutes ago, South Austin said:

With Gary Darnell as DC.

Bobby Jack Wright 

[Js1 82606]

4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

in (well, maybe if it came to a head to head between him and Mark Penn

[Born to Run 6220]

14 minutes ago, Clintonaldo said:

Why anyone is trying to apply logic to Trump’s campaign is beyond me. He will go where he thinks he gets the biggest crowd. That’s all there is to it. 

And to anyplace that will still book him. He's running out of venues.

[Bozo_Casanova 25579]

5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

Bottom line: ain't nobody know what's gonna happen.  There are so many predictions out there that yes, ONE of them will surely be right, but that doesn't mean they are particularly brilliant or prescient.  It just means that if you get 10,000 guesses, odds are that a person or two is going to get it right and correctly state that there are 1,455 jelly beans in the jar.  That's it.

Tuesday could absolutely go either way.

And based on this timeline, always bet on the worst outcome.  Because fuck us.  

[jimmyjazz 45108]

1 minute ago, RDCanecutter said:

You got Gibbon Shit? But not too salty. Those other guys put too much salt on it. I want to taste the gibbon what the gibbon ate, not the salt.

fify

[Born to Run 6220]

16 minutes ago, safe sex said:

Ok well agree to disagree on the quality of weed products in Texas vs legal states. 

You can get products from CO easily in Austin. Delivered.

Edited 3 hours ago by Born to Run

[fuggled 576]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

So breaking that Marist poll for PA:

The early vote/already voted from that poll is 63-35 Harris.  The "yet to vote" is 54-44 Trump.  You can tell the GOP has cannibalized some of their E-Day voters, while a significant number of Dems have shifted to E-Day voting, since 2020 E-Day was 65-35 Trump and the EV was 76-28 Biden.  

Democrats also have a few more days to push their EV margins up, since Thursday-Monday are all mail ballot returns, no "in-person voting" until Tuesday.  GOP encouraged their voters to show up early, request a mail ballot and then immediately cast it, which is effectively what PA's early in-person voting is. 

Also Smithley points out Marist nailed the 2022 Senate topline in their final poll, when others were trying to push it to a tie/Oz lead. 

Those numbers aren't that reassuring.  There have been 1,625K votes so far in Pennsylvania.  5,300K votes on election day would match 2020 total turnout (6.9M).  If we apply those ratios from the Marist poll to those turnout numbers, Trump wins by <100K votes.  😰

[BevoAbyss 1899]

2 hours ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

constant onslaught of media frenzy in search of clicks & eyeballs.

I got some news for ya: At this point, there is a better explanation other than clicks and eyeballs. I'm betting there are lot of MAGA-friendly people working in the media who don't mind Trump winning.

That means they are fascists or fascist enablers.

 

Edited 3 hours ago by BevoAbyss

[Pato del Muerto 51933]

1 minute ago, Born to Run said:

You can get products from CO easily in Austin. Delivered.

Do you even surly sponsor, bruv?

[Born to Run 6220]

17 minutes ago, safe sex said:

 Also who the fuck FLIES back with weed? FedEx overnight that shit like a civilized person

I've done that too but it's a pain.

[Bozo_Casanova 25579]

Just now, Born to Run said:

You can get products from CO easily in Austin.

go on

[Js1 82606]

1 minute ago, fuggled said:

Those numbers aren't that reassuring.  There have been 1,625K votes so far in Pennsylvania.  5,300K votes on election day would match 2020 total turnout (6.9M).  If we apply those ratios from the Marist poll to those turnout numbers, Trump wins by <100K votes.  😰

It's not just raw numbers, it's who is showing up Tuesday (more Dems, less GOP), crossover votes, and how indies vote.