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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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Js1

Js1 82633

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, fuggled said:

Those numbers aren't that reassuring.  There have been 1,625K votes so far in Pennsylvania.  5,300K votes on election day would match 2020 total turnout (6.9M).  If we apply those ratios from the Marist poll to those turnout numbers, Trump wins by <100K votes.  😰

It's not just raw numbers, it's who is showing up Tuesday (more Dems, less GOP), crossover votes, and how indies vote. 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9511

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

Bottom line: ain't nobody know what's gonna happen.  There are so many predictions out there that yes, ONE of them will surely be right, but that doesn't mean they are particularly brilliant or prescient.  It just means that if you get 10,000 guesses, odds are that a person or two is going to get it right and correctly state that there are 1,455 jelly beans in the jar.  That's it.

Tuesday could absolutely go either way.

And based on this timeline, always bet on the worst outcome.  Because fuck us.  

 

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BevoAbyss

BevoAbyss 1900

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Kel Varnsen said:

Friends of mine, all educated, white women in Texas, dressed as garbage and bragged about their votes.

I got news for ya: Your friends are fascists. It's 100% obvious. Why are you friends with them? 

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fuggled

fuggled 576

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It's not just raw numbers, it's who is showing up Tuesday (more Dems, less GOP), crossover votes, and how indies vote. 

Sure, it all comes down to turnout.  FYI, I plugged in your updated EV number (1,688,551) and went with your assumption of 150K more dropping on Monday.  If PA hits 2020 turnout with those numbers and you assume the Marist poll is accurate, Harris would win by 6K votes.

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Clintonaldo

Clintonaldo 2323

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

God damn you! There's a fucking Chili's within walking distance to me.

I live .4 miles from a Chili’s and have ubered there. Matter of fact I might walk there and blast some beers in another hour. 

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Skipper

Skipper 5959

Posted
Posted

I've been far too busy this week to follow the detail day to day much less minute to minute.  But the contrast between extreme confidence both 'sides' seem to have is fascinating.  I spend a few minutes catching up on this thread and see some of the screenshots/links and feel better.  Then i get texts from Trump supporters with similar screenshots and links with right leaning data scientist claiming it is all but over for Trump based on early voting demographics.  Trumpers that are closely following this are extremely confident.  And of course at least most true national people seem to just hedge and think it's going to be close.   I get that is all by design, particularly on the Trump side, and that even if their internal polling showed he was losing bigly they would project otherwise in order to challenge it as 'rigged'.

But it sure seems like everyone's algorithm is just amplifying their preferred view on things.   I think inevitable that no matter the actual outcome, we are going to have 40% of this country not only pissed off but in shock at the results based on what their social media is telling them.

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Pancho

Pancho 41923

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, safe sex said:

 Also who the fuck FLIES back with weed? FedEx overnight that shit like a civilized person

 

Ehh, was told to always put it in your checked bag because TSA isn’t looking for that, they are looking for bombs.

 

Another win for #teamcheckbags

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David Dennison

David Dennison 17696

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I've been far too busy this week to follow the detail day to day much less minute to minute.  But the contrast between extreme confidence both 'sides' seem to have is fascinating.  I spend a few minutes catching up on this thread and see some of the screenshots/links and feel better.  Then i get texts from Trump supporters with similar screenshots and links with right leaning data scientist claiming it is all but over for Trump based on early voting demographics.  Trumpers that are closely following this are extremely confident.  And of course at least most true national people seem to just hedge and think it's going to be close.   I get that is all by design, particularly on the Trump side, and that even if their internal polling showed he was losing bigly they would project otherwise in order to challenge it as 'rigged'.

But it sure seems like everyone's algorithm is just amplifying their preferred view on things.   I think inevitable that no matter the actual outcome, we are going to have 40% of this country not only pissed off but in shock at the results based on what their social media is telling them.

One thing is certain, he's losing the popular vote for the third time in a row.

He might win for a second time because this country is hopelessly backward.

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Js1

Js1 82633

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, fuggled said:

Sure, it all comes down to turnout.  FYI, I plugged in your updated EV number (1,688,551) and went with your assumption of 150K more dropping on Monday.  If PA hits 2020 turnout with those numbers and you assume the Marist poll is accurate, Harris would win by 6K votes.

Glad to see. Let’s see what Monday’s numbers do look like! Don’t forget this is basically implying 100/0 for Dem and GOP votes. Which isn’t the best assumption.

I know when Ralston does his, I think it’s 95/5 or something? But I think in PA, it could be 90/10 for GOP and 95/5 for Dems 

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gmr548

gmr548 16270

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, fuggled said:

Sure, it all comes down to turnout.  FYI, I plugged in your updated EV number (1,688,551) and went with your assumption of 150K more dropping on Monday.  If PA hits 2020 turnout with those numbers and you assume the Marist poll is accurate, Harris would win by 6K votes.

 

16 minutes ago, fuggled said:

Those numbers aren't that reassuring.  There have been 1,625K votes so far in Pennsylvania.  5,300K votes on election day would match 2020 total turnout (6.9M).  If we apply those ratios from the Marist poll to those turnout numbers, Trump wins by <100K votes.  😰

With voting data out there now, I'm not sure assuming 2020-level turnout is correct.

58 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

SIAP

 

Kensington is not a nice neighborhood. That took dedication and a not insignificant amount of balls.

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32190

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It's not just raw numbers, it's who is showing up Tuesday (more Dems, less GOP), crossover votes, and how indies vote. 

Yeah if Trump wins the PA election day vote 63-35 (what I think that poster is basing their concerns on) it would be surprising. People aren't grasping that before COVID, election day went to Democrats. My dad is a lifelong Democrat and last night I texted him and asked why he hasn't voted yet after looking at the Travis County election rosters. He said he is going back to his tradition of voting on election day. 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47183

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Js1 said:

PA Firewall update:

394k (D-R) - Dems have surpassed this portion of the firewall
441k (D-R and winning indies 70-30)

Should grow some more after the Monday update that covers Fri-Sat-Sun

Just to be clear, this isn't an Either/Or situaiton, right? Suddenly a 70% share of Independants feels awfuly optimistic. 

28 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

C'mon, man. Bigger picture, his Cheney comments are an absolute nothingburger. The fact that it's taking up oxygen for Democrats 3 days before the election really sucks. 

 

This take is borderline fucking absurd. You're literally whining about bringing Cheney, and her giving Rs permission to cross the line if they're going, which has merit, but then fucking blaming the Democrats becuase Tucker fucking Carlson asks Trump about her and Trump says she's a POS and should face a fucking firing squad. WHY DID THE DEMOCRATS DO THIS!?!?! Fucking stop it. I realize many people hate involving Cheney, but jesus christ acting like it's the D's fault becuase the orange fucking nutbar actually suggested she should face live fucking hire 3 days before an election is no one's fault but fukcing Donald Trump. 

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 74815

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I've been far too busy this week to follow the detail day to day much less minute to minute.  But the contrast between extreme confidence both 'sides' seem to have is fascinating.  I spend a few minutes catching up on this thread and see some of the screenshots/links and feel better.  Then i get texts from Trump supporters with similar screenshots and links with right leaning data scientist claiming it is all but over for Trump based on early voting demographics.  Trumpers that are closely following this are extremely confident.  And of course at least most true national people seem to just hedge and think it's going to be close.   I get that is all by design, particularly on the Trump side, and that even if their internal polling showed he was losing bigly they would project otherwise in order to challenge it as 'rigged'.

But it sure seems like everyone's algorithm is just amplifying their preferred view on things.   I think inevitable that no matter the actual outcome, we are going to have 40% of this country not only pissed off but in shock at the results based on what their social media is telling them.

 

right wing radio is preaching a big trump win and +5 senate

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wood

wood 10816

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, mchookem said:

grocery this evening, elderly man (~70ish) with 'White Guys For Harris' cap. as we passed in produce i said 'love your hat!' he nodded and smiled. took a few steps then doubled back to me, leaned in and said 'there are more of us than you think' and winked. 

she's gonna win big. 

Nice. I think I want this, too.

B1cRsgg-hzL._CLa%7C2140,2000%7C91foM7Hia

Edited by wood
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Js1

Js1 82633

Posted
Posted
Just now, SydneyCarton said:

Just to be clear, this isn't an Either/Or situaiton, right? Suddenly a 70% share of Independants feels awfuly optimistic. 

This is just early mail-in indies.  Not all indies.  

According to Smithley, based on 2020/2022, those indies go about 70-30 for the Dems.  It's what the Tuesday indies will look like

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'stache

'stache 21510

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I've been far too busy this week to follow the detail day to day much less minute to minute.  But the contrast between extreme confidence both 'sides' seem to have is fascinating.  I spend a few minutes catching up on this thread and see some of the screenshots/links and feel better.  Then i get texts from Trump supporters with similar screenshots and links with right leaning data scientist claiming it is all but over for Trump based on early voting demographics.  Trumpers that are closely following this are extremely confident.  And of course at least most true national people seem to just hedge and think it's going to be close.   I get that is all by design, particularly on the Trump side, and that even if their internal polling showed he was losing bigly they would project otherwise in order to challenge it as 'rigged'.

But it sure seems like everyone's algorithm is just amplifying their preferred view on things.   I think inevitable that no matter the actual outcome, we are going to have 40% of this country not only pissed off but in shock at the results based on what their social media is telling them.

Hmm, let's think about which party's world view is shaped entirely by lies, and which party is actually tethered to reality. That's all I need to know about anything saying the trump is gonna win, especially when they say it'll be a blowout. There is zero chance he wins the popular vote, and a very low chance at the EC.

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safe sex

safe sex 11557

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Ehh, was told to always put it in your checked bag because TSA isn’t looking for that, they are looking for bombs.

 

Another win for #teamcheckbags

And have some random TSA agent take some of my shit, because am I gonna file a complaint about my missing weed? No way

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Js1

Js1 82633

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

To me that's a tell that they know they're about to lose bigly.

I mean, a +5 Senate means 3 unexpected losses (Casey, Rosen, Slotkin, Gallego, Baldwin).  Polling says otherwise. 

Also I worry for putt, listening to AM talk radio willingly. 

10 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Ehh, was told to always put it in your checked bag because TSA isn’t looking for that, they are looking for bombs.

 

Another win for #teamcheckbags

I always put it in my carry-on, with the toiletries.  Never had it searched.  

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Js1

Js1 82633

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Yeah if Trump wins the PA election day vote 63-35 (what I think that poster is basing their concerns on) it would be surprising. People aren't grasping that before COVID, election day went to Democrats. My dad is a lifelong Democrat and last night I texted him and asked why he hasn't voted yet after looking at the Travis County election rosters. He said he is going back to his tradition of voting on election day. 

He's not going to win E-Day 63-35.  Marist says 54-44.  I do think it'll be +10 or less, just based on how people are voting. 

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Firemans4Horn

Firemans4Horn 16914

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Just to be clear, this isn't an Either/Or situaiton, right? Suddenly a 70% share of Independants feels awfuly optimistic. 

This take is borderline fucking absurd. You're literally whining about bringing Cheney, and her giving Rs permission to cross the line if they're going, which has merit, but then fucking blaming the Democrats becuase Tucker fucking Carlson asks Trump about her and Trump says she's a POS and should face a fucking firing squad. WHY DID THE DEMOCRATS DO THIS!?!?! Fucking stop it. I realize many people hate involving Cheney, but jesus christ acting like it's the D's fault becuase the orange fucking nutbar actually suggested she should face live fucking hire 3 days before an election is no one's fault but fukcing Donald Trump. 


 

image.thumb.jpeg.a51adb38a12db1bf3a2600ee03c519b1.jpeg

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 74815

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

I mean, a +5 Senate means 3 unexpected losses (Casey, Rosen, Slotkin, Gallego, Baldwin).  Polling says otherwise. 

Also I worry for putt, listening to AM talk radio willingly. 

I always put it in my carry-on, with the toiletries.  Never had it searched.  

 

texans 3rd string OL talk gets old 

i catch the opening and then switch over to 93 da beat 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47183

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

I mean, a +5 Senate means 3 unexpected losses (Casey, Rosen, Slotkin, Gallego, Baldwin).  Polling says otherwise. 

Also I worry for putt, listening to AM talk radio willingly. 

Well, there's no left wing radio that scratches his conspiracy theory itch, so he has to go for any fucking port in a storm. 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 24852

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Better start jerking off like the rest of you Kamala voters. Sigh. 

shit. Wife knew I was voting D on most issues. Only one was another candidate. D is an ass with multiple DWI's. Had a hard time voting mayor. One thinks we should keep selling water cuz the river is flowing. Yeah, at 50%.

The I Voted sticker got me a very fun after voting surprise.

Maybe if you told your wife what to do you would get laid more. Like a good republican.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 19880

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

This take is borderline fucking absurd. You're literally whining about bringing Cheney, and her giving Rs permission to cross the line if they're going, which has merit, but then fucking blaming the Democrats becuase Tucker fucking Carlson asks Trump about her and Trump says she's a POS and should face a fucking firing squad. WHY DID THE DEMOCRATS DO THIS!?!?! Fucking stop it. I realize many people hate involving Cheney, but jesus christ acting like it's the D's fault becuase the orange fucking nutbar actually suggested she should face live fucking hire 3 days before an election is no one's fault but fukcing Donald Trump. 

We're all on edge right now.

The Cheney comments are just bait. And everyone's taking it. Even Hillary is tweeting about it. The clock is ticking and there are more productive things to amplify to voters.

 

 

Edited by Hank Kingsley
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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 51936

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This is just early mail-in indies.  Not all indies.  

According to Smithley, based on 2020/2022, those indies go about 70-30 for the Dems.  It's what the Tuesday indies will look like

It seems counterintuitive that early voting indies would skew dem heavy while saying that normally dems wait to vote on Election Day.  I guess dems aren’t indies and I’m looking at “dem voting” which is not monolithic. 

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'stache

'stache 21510

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

We're all on edge right now.

The Cheney comments are just bait. And everyone's taking it. Even Hillary is tweeting about it. The clock is ticking and there are more productive things to amplify to voters.

 

 

I don't think I'm not following this conversation correctly. He's calling for the execution of someone who opposes him but are people saying the dems shouldn't make it an issue? I mean, it's part of the overall issue, that he is a completely unhinged maniac with fascist ambitions. It's appalling that he would say anything like that, period.

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South Austin

South Austin 51516

Posted
Posted
Just now, &#x27;stache said:

I don't think I'm not following this conversation correctly. He's calling for the execution of someone who opposes him but are people saying the dems shouldn't make it an issue? I mean, it's part of the overall issue, that he is a completely unhinged maniac with fascist ambitions. It's appalling that he would say anything like that, period.

It's just locker room talk.

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'stache

'stache 21510

Posted
Posted

Are they exit polling early voters to determine who they're actually voting for? I've seen a lot about how many registered Rs and Ds are reporting but a big part of this election is registered Rs who are sick of dotards shit and are voting Kamala to make him go away forever. That's why I think she'll win and it won't be close. I've never in my adult life seen so many open Rs supporting the opposing candidate. I think there are lots of people doing that without saying so even to a pollster.

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elguapo

elguapo 4552

Posted
Posted

Has anyone heard the Robinhood commercials on sxm advertising betting on the presidential race? They make clear in the commercial that you only get the $ if the candidate you bet on is confirmed by congress, you know just in case Trump loses but is actually able to steal the election this time.

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