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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10957

Posted
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7 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I take issue with your suggestion that a national championship does not matter.  

If they mattered, then teams from Alabama and South Carolina wouldn't have the most titles in the CFP era.


What else is top notch coming from these areas? (excluding the exquisite and forward-thinking art from @RDCanecutter that is adorning my walls)

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13225

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19 minutes ago, heso said:

Just to throw a little cold water on that tweet about the senior numbers: There are a fair number of older voters registered as democrats that love Trump in PA.

Washington county is a perfect example of this. Mondale and Dukakis won Washington county by 18 and 24 points respectively.

In 2020 the voter registration for Washington county was D/R/I 59k/65/17. In the 65+ age bracket there are still more registered democrats than republicans. 

Trump won 72k to 45k. 

Lost of old school democrats that never changed their party affiliation voting for Trump. 

It’s a similar story in a lot of western PA but Southwest specifically. 

Yet Mondale, Dukakis, and Trump all lost Pennsylvania. Not sure Washington is a great bellwether.

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Js1

Js1 85283

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1 minute ago, Valmy77 said:

What are we supposed to learn from this?

I guess to see if the gap remains the same and if we can pick up a House seat or two in Iowa?

Queen Ann basically nails the race in Iowa. Her last poll was Trump +4. If he is still hovering around 4-5 point lead, it’s going to be a good night for Harris in the Midwest. If he’s up near 8-10 points, he’s probably winning. Anything less than 4 is a Harris blowout. 

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

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5 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

If they mattered, then teams from Alabama and South Carolina wouldn't have the most titles in the CFP era.


What else is top notch coming from these areas? (excluding the exquisite and forward-thinking art from @RDCanecutter that is adorning my walls)

It's Auburn that fucks everything up.  

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9927

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2 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

What are we supposed to learn from this?

I guess to see if the gap remains the same and if we can pick up a House seat or two in Iowa?

 

1 minute ago, MrX said:

I think if it’s like Trump by 5 (4?) or less in Iowa it’s a great sign for Harris. 

I'm posting with a note at screen bottom that @Js1 has replied, so I'm sure this is duplicative, but a narrow-ish trump lead in Iowa means she's doing well in the rest of the midwest.  Selzer doesn't put her thumb on the poll to try and get a reasonable result. She just asks people who their going to vote for, weights for demographics, and fires. She's been quite accurate for Iowa for multiple elections.  To be clear: Dems ain't winning in Iowa. 

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Js1

Js1 85283

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1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

 

I'm posting with a note at screen bottom that @Js1 has replied, so I'm sure this is duplicative, but a narrow-ish trump lead in Iowa means she's doing well in the rest of the midwest.  Selzer doesn't put her thumb on the poll to try and get a reasonable result. She just asks people who their going to vote for, weights for demographics, and fires. She's been quite accurate for Iowa for multiple elections.  To be clear: Dems ain't winning in Iowa. 

Yep. She basically caught Trump’s late surges in 2016 and 2020. 

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heso

heso 2786

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11 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Yet Mondale, Dukakis, and Trump all lost Pennsylvania. Not sure Washington is a great bellwether.

I’m not saying it’s a bellwether. I’m using it as an example of a county in PA that has swung from LBJ +50 to Trump +45. There are still more olds registered Dem than gop. In the 65+ age bracket there the ballot returns alone will be positive for Dems while the actual votes are heavily Trump. 

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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Queen Ann basically nails the race in Iowa. Her last poll was Trump +4. If he is still hovering around 4-5 point lead, it’s going to be a good night for Harris in the Midwest. If he’s up near 8-10 points, he’s probably winning. Anything less than 4 is a Harris blowout. 

To put it a different way, it’s seen as an accurate poll of Midwestern middle class whites. If he’s losing ground there he is fucked in Wisconsin and probably Michigan. Similar to NE-2, although NE-2 is tainted by the last minute attempt to disenfranchise the voters.
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Js1

Js1 85283

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2 minutes ago, Tuco said:


To put it a different way, it’s seen as an accurate poll of Midwestern middle class whites. If he’s losing ground there he is fucked in Wisconsin and probably Michigan. Similar to NE-2, although NE-2 is tainted by the last minute attempt to disenfranchise the voters.

NE-02 is also suburban, which is where she needs to overperform Biden. And has been in polling 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9927

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12 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

 

 

 

I don't want to get my hopes up, because we don't know shit about fuck, but this fits my theory of what is happening in the election:  Undecideds were generally uncomfortable with Trump, but are grumpsy about the economy and weren't sold on Harris (but also hadn't ruled her out the way a bunch of indies just could not bring themselves to vote for Clinton).  They remained Trump curious because of rosey memories of his economy, and his low grade flood the zone with shit created white noise that allowed indies to start living with the idea of another Trump term (I'm not sure if people really remember, but Trump got relatively quiet towards the end of the 2016 campaign, which really amplified the Comey memo and created the impression Trump could be just a buffonish but normal republican.) It meant late deciders who were trying to stomach Clinton in 2016 the incentive they needed to YOLO into Trump. I know there are people on this board who qualified for that. 

The last two weeks have absolutely shattered that status qou, with Trump storming around the country as a facist and giving late breakers the incentive they need to YOLO into Harris. 

 

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UpperWestside

UpperWestside 6161

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3 hours ago, flatdawgs said:

Serious question, from someone who's been to most of these island countries (Polynesia/Micronesia/Melanesia all) - do you have a specific game plan as to how to obtain residency in any of them? If not, you'll find that it's nearly impossible and for a very good reason - there is an extreme scarcity of resources for their own people, let alone folks who see the swaying palm trees, beaches, and lagoons and think "paradise!" and have since the Bounty mutineers decided they wanted to go back to Tahiti. You'll find some of the loveliest people anywhere out there - and you'll also find that as happy as they are to see you, they're at least as happy when you go. Go out to say, Tarawa in Kiribati (I know you're familiar with that particular island's place in history) and see what a shitshow the i-Kiribati themselves have made it. Hell, even as an American citizen you can't just pick up and move to one of the American territories like you can to Hawai'i.

A further aside to the expat life in general - and there's several on the board who can attest to this - you will be much more successful in your quest to find the right place for you if you aren't doing it just to flee somewhere else. Everywhere on Earth has their share of problems, assholes, and greedy shitbags who will happily give you a big "Fuck you!" to your face. Generally speaking, like here, it's 30-40% and that's easily borne out looking at election results (Europe is a great example of this). The Solomon Islands, for example, are a freaking mess between the pro-Western and pro-Chinese factions, both of whom just see them as strategic and don't give a rat's ass about them. In Fiji, the Fijian native population and those of Indian descent brought by the British cordially hate one another (I was there when a coup occurred, which was fun). It goes on and on no matter where you are. Doesn't mean there aren't great places - I've looked at many - but there's no perfect place where you can avoid the troglodytes and venality that are a function of being human. 

I know your affinity for that part of the world - we have a similar love of history - and I truly wish you luck in finding the right place, and one where you'll be able to relocate. I just hope that it's an "eyes wide open" move. Being an expat can be really, really hard without that.

So thank you for all of the advice and information you provided. I can best explain the plan by saying that none of it has to do with finding an island paradise. That includes coming to Hawaii. Moving to Hawaii has more to do with having the ability to gain more historical knowledge that I want about the war as well as the people who lived in the countries we fought in as we moved through the Central Pacific.

I have read four books by a travel writer that @InkaUtexasput me onto. J. Maarten Troost. His book from the late 90’s about living on Tarawa with his then girlfriend and now wife really helped push me in the direction I have gone. I hope that I can perhaps go down to DC to meet him before I leave to hear from him in person. I will gladly listen to anymore stories and advice you have to share as well. You can DM me and share contact info with me as I like to be as prepared as possible for what is coming. Yesterday when I was opening up a bank account here my banker asked me about my move and I mentioned wanting to live in The Solomons. To her it is a place to go for, in her words, the pristine beaches it is. For me the reality has nothing to do with that. Living there would be difficult and the geopolitical situation, along with competing factions wanting control of the area for their own selfish reasons makes it a fairly unstable place. Yet still I know that’s a place I will live. I could stay in Hawaii and live comfortably for the rest of my life, but that is not how I am wired I suppose. The desire to either help people live a better life and help to educate them is something that keeps pushing me forward each day. We as a country did not do right by the people of The Solomons, or really any of those island nations we moved through and they are still paying the price for that eight decades later.
 

I have attempted to explain to friends and co-workers that while Hawaii may look like paradise to them if they visit it is just home to those who have to live and work there. Will I enjoy living on an island? Absolutely because it fits the lifestyle and personality I have, but coming here for me is part of a journey that will lead me into teaching. Whether that winds up being at a university level or below I do not know, but I am okay with whatever happens. That’s life in a nutshell for me I guess. You take the good and not so good and just keep going each day trying to do better for those you meet and come across each day. 
 

 

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Blotto

Blotto 23490

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4 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

 

I am working on the most tedious of anti-trust filings.  Before I had to start doing that, the social media algorithm put those "Garbage" pics through. And these are people I have been friends with for 35+ years.  Sigh.  So just not a good start to my Friday.

Is it your theory that they just joined the trump cult this morning?

4 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

It amazes me that after about a decade, there is still only one source for that gif on the internet and it's still choppy AF. 

image.gif.b523be9e07300dcdf398f508ba765a22.gif

 

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Senior Harris campaign officials say campaign’s internal data show them winning by double digits among battleground state voters who made up their mind in the last week.

What is that, another  5 or 6 votes for the good guys? 

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safe sex

safe sex 11697

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1 hour ago, Da Fino said:

USPS. Safer I have been told. 

I'd rather a private company handle my illegal drugs instead of the federal government that makes the drugs illegal. Never had an issue with FedEx.

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hobbes2702

hobbes2702 13029

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19 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Can we send a Secret Service detail to Tony Hinchcliffe's house on Nov 6? We must protect this national hero.

 

9 minutes ago, Clintonaldo said:

This might be the funniest thing Tony Hinchcliffe has ever done. 

I dunno the roast of Brady was pretty damn funny. That said, he sucks on Kill Tony and is usually the least funny on the panel.

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52485

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4 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

 

I dunno the roast of Brady was pretty damn funny. That said, he sucks on Kill Tony and is usually the least funny on the panel.

I think I saw him on the flava flav or ice-t roasts getting laughs.  But, proper environment for that humor.  And who knows how much of those sets he wrote himself. 

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BearSchlong

BearSchlong 8083

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Woke up to the sound of Mrs GOTJ crying at 2AM. She'd woken from a nightmare that TFG won, and mobs of Trumpkins were wandering the streets in search of immigrants, LGBTQ+, and women to lock up.

Trying to calm her fears & reassure her that Harris is going to win gets more challenging every day w/ the constant onslaught of bullshit polling & media frenzy in search of clicks & eyeballs.

Here is some solace - I just had my regular Friday lunch at Luby’s with 6 other white men on average 20 years older than me. (I'm 52)

With the exception of my lawyer/best friend who is startlingly reasonable, They are all smugly confident in a Trump landslide but are terrified of a Kamala win. Conversation turned towards one of our old friends, a retired MD who moved to rural NE AZ and built a 100% off the grid compound complete with bomb shelter where he can watch right wing propaganda while jerking off to his prodigious arsenal.

These guys are all retired steel plant, refinery managers, utility execs, and they are harmless codgers. But no way could I interrupt their programmed minds to consider alternate sources.

They said their piece and I chirped in “next week is gonna be awesome!! So many frivolous lawsuits, so much entertainment, so many MAGA tears, my God I wish I could be a fly on the wall at (aforementioned MD, Mike)’s house to see the ensuing insanity. I'd love to witness his thoughts during the meltdown, its gonna be spectacular”

We all know Mike has brainworms, he just happened to have the funds to take the cosplay to new levels. He is the one guy who I will say “you're out of your fucking mind, idiot” to his face - the other guys talk a big game but luckily we have other things in common so we can remain friends but I can smile and eyeroll them.

They were my dad’s friends first, and if he were alive he'd be smiling and saying “fucking Mike is nuts” under his breath.

Oh - tell your wife the right is way more scared than her. Those pussies aren't going to do fuck about shit.
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C-Man

C-Man 27194

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Your Body Wasn't Built To Handle Three Trump Elections

https://lizplank.substack.com/p/your-body-wasnt-built-to-handle-three?utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

The human body wasn’t built for this—I know mine definitely wasn’t. No amount of free Deepak Chopra meditations on YouTube can soothe our collective, election-induced acid reflux.

We’ve got one candidate who could’ve handled a question about Biden with a bit more finesse, and another who climbs inside garbage trucks to distract from the fact that his quotes are indistinguishable from Hitler’s. As Van Jones puts it, we’re looking at a woman who’s flawless and a man who’s lawless.

But here’s why I’m feeling genuinely hopeful as we head into the final stretch. Two weeks ago, Trump seemed to have the momentum, but now, Harris is picking up speed. Here are some uplifting trends I’ve noticed, and I hope they bring you a little peace of mind to help quiet any election anxiety you’re feeling. Consider this a toolkit for mental wellness during election season—something to keep you grounded, focused, and feeling good as we approach the finish line.

1-Silver Surge: Pennsylvania Seniors Ditch Trump for Harris: In Pennsylvania, (where i’m writing to you from right now!) early voting data reveals a surprising twist: seniors, a group that’s long leaned Republican, are favoring Kamala Harris over Donald Trump. Democrats currently make up 58% of early ballots cast by voters aged 65 and older, compared to 35% for Republicans, despite both parties having nearly equal senior registrants. Polls confirm Trump trailing Harris by 5 points among these voters, a stark shift from 2020 when he captured 53% of the senior vote. Democratic strategist Tom Bonier calls this unexpected “silver surge” a hopeful sign for Harris, as seniors play a crucial role in battleground states. Grumpy old men FTW!!

2-High Black Voter Turnout Signals Hope for Democrats: Early voting in Georgia has shattered records, with nearly 873,000 Black voters casting ballots before Election Day—part of an impressive 3.2 million early votes statewide. This surge goes beyond previous years, and while metro Atlanta leads the charge, smaller counties are also seeing unprecedented participation. With a 45% statewide turnout already, Georgia is shaping up to be a fierce battleground, and this historic turnout among Black voters signals a promising boost for Kamala Harris in the final stretch. This is a really good sign!!

3-Unprecedented Female Turnout Could Become Harris’ Secret Weapon: Women are turning out in record numbers for early voting in the 2024 election, with women accounting for roughly 55% of early ballots cast across battleground states, compared to 45% by men. This 10-point gender gap is a hopeful sign for Kamala Harris, as female voters are seen as key to her victory. Democratic strategists, surprised by the surge in female turnout, see the lack of a similar surge among male voters as encouraging, with some states even exceeding female turnout from 2020. Harris has focused on winning over moderate suburban women, especially following the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade. Polling shows Harris making inroads, especially among suburban women and non-college-educated white women. This high female turnout is providing Democrats with optimism, counterbalancing concerns over increased Republican early voting numbers. Women cancelling out their conservative husband’s vote??? We love to see it.

4-Kamala Harris Is Closing In on Trump Even in Some Deep Red States: A new Kansas Speaks survey shows Harris trailing Trump by only five points, sparking excitement about a potential shift in this traditionally conservative stronghold. While the survey primarily focuses on state issues, these close margins hint at broader political change. Kansas has already shown progressive momentum, from rejecting abortion restrictions to re-electing Democratic Governor Laura Kelly. Although a full swing-state transformation may be ambitious, Trump’s shrinking lead suggests Kansas voters may be more open to change. With Democrats working to break the Republican supermajority in the state legislature, these results offer a hopeful sign that even the reddest states are inching toward a new political landscape.

Kamala Harris is also positioned to achieve the Democratic Party’s strongest presidential performance in Texas since 1992, according to preliminary data from YouGov’s Cooperative Election Study. The survey puts Trump with a narrow 4-point lead over Harris, a notably tight margin in Texas, where Democrats have been steadily closing the gap. Recent election cycles saw a 15.8-point Republican win shrink to 9 points for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and just 5.6 points for Biden in 2020. While Harris may not flip Texas, this trend signals a shift in voter sentiment, with Harris holding a significant lead among younger voters and Democrats increasingly hopeful that Texas could become a competitive state in the near future.

5-Black Men Shift Toward Harris as Trump’s Support Slips: One of the stories in this election was that Trump was going to get record support from Black men, but a new NAACP survey reveals a significant drop in his support among young Black men, with numbers falling from 27% to 21% in just a month. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris has seen her support among this group climb from 51% to 59%, reflecting growing enthusiasm in a critical voter demographic. The poll suggests that young Black men who were leaning toward Trump are losing motivation, while Harris’ focus on reaching Black voters is resonating. NAACP President Derrick Johnson is confident this trend will intensify as more voters realize what’s at stake, making Harris’ campaign increasingly optimistic about securing the Black vote in battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. It doesn’t help that Trump held a Coachella for racists rally where a “comedian” made a watermelon joke about a Black man in the audience. Black men are taking notice, and Harris is gaining momentum.

6-Speaking of That Rally…It Might Make Him Lose the Election: Trump's racist rally comments about Puerto Rico being an “island of garbage” are reportedly “spreading like wildfire” among Pennsylvania’s 500,000 Puerto Rican voters, and the backlash could be a game-changer. Many Puerto Ricans, including some former Trump supporters, are reconsidering their vote or switching to Harris in response to offensive remarks made by the pro-Trump comedian who won’t be named. With Pennsylvania’s razor-thin margins, losing support from this sizable and mobilized group could cost Trump the state—and potentially the election. Wouldn’t that be Shakespearean!

As we head into the final days of this election, let’s hold onto hope. We’ve seen incredible shifts, record-breaking turnouts, and people showing up with passion and purpose. This is a reminder that change is not only possible but happening right before us. No matter how loud the noise or how tense the race, our voices are stronger—and together, we’re pushing for a future built on progress, empathy, and unity. So let’s keep moving forward, keep showing up, and remember that each vote and every bit of hope we bring is part of a much bigger story we’re writing together!! Even with all this momentum, this election will be down to a few votes so every conversation you have matters! I know I sound like a broken record by now, but you’d be surprised how persuadable people are when you just listen!! Let’s win this!!
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105072

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Posted
42 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

You know what....no fucking apologies here....that song was catchy as shit when it came out, it's catchy now, and I love hearing it.  Puerto Rico can fucking lay down some tunes.

27 minutes ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

 

huh.

Is that ridiculous, absurd, and embarrassing as hell at a political rally?  Fuck yeah.

Also, if someone did that drunk at a party at my house would I laugh my fucking ass off and applaud?  Yep.  That was fucking stupid funny.

15 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

Post this in the football board. I double dog dare you. 

Good sir, I try to spend minimal time in that cesspool of negativity.  I much prefer the sunnier climate of the Cloak Room.

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