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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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Chult86
Chult86

I don't post all that often, though don't mistake that for not enjoying this board's discourse, OUsucks/Texags point and laughs, and quality original content on a frequent basis. I haven't felt t

Frank The Tank
Frank The Tank

I’m a thread lurker and really only jump in for some sarcasm here and there. But, as an attempt at sincerity and to help get things back on track, here we go: I was generally raised as a republic

Francisco 2.0
Francisco 2.0

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 13955

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29 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I don't want to get my hopes up, because we don't know shit about fuck, but this fits my theory of what is happening in the election:  Undecideds were generally uncomfortable with Trump, but are grumpsy about the economy and weren't sold on Harris (but also hadn't ruled her out the way a bunch of indies just could not bring themselves to vote for Clinton).  They remained Trump curious because of rosey memories of his economy, and his low grade flood the zone with shit created white noise that allowed indies to start living with the idea of another Trump term (I'm not sure if people really remember, but Trump got relatively quiet towards the end of the 2016 campaign, which really amplified the Comey memo and created the impression Trump could be just a buffonish but normal republican.) It meant late deciders who were trying to stomach Clinton in 2016 the incentive they needed to YOLO into Trump. I know there are people on this board who qualified for that. 

The last two weeks have absolutely shattered that status qou, with Trump storming around the country as a facist and giving late breakers the incentive they need to YOLO into Harris. 

 

That's a really good comparison between the two races.  Well done.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 103337

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8 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I really appreciate the use of profanity this election cycle. 

 

 

5 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Walz is my kind of dude. I hope if he becomes VP he continues to make noise about these issues.

Fuck yes.  Quit tiptoeing around this shit.  Decorum is for losers.  Calling it like it is is what winners fucking do.  Call them out on their bullshit.  Call them assholes.  Drive them back into their holes, back under their rocks.  Don't just hate them, humiliate and mock them relentlessly.  We're fighting for the possible future of the Republic.  Every fucking tool within the law should be used.

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19222

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22 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

 

I dunno the roast of Brady was pretty damn funny. That said, he sucks on Kill Tony and is usually the least funny on the panel.

He's funny as a roast comedian, where everyone goes in expecting some off-color insults. But even in that environment, he has a meanness about him you don't see in some of the other great roast comedians. Jeff Ross, Jesilnek, Nikki Glaser are all great roast comics, but they say stuff with a bit of a wink and grin that keeps it light. Hinchcliffe comes off as an asshole more often than not. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17136

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57 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Queen Ann basically nails the race in Iowa. Her last poll was Trump +4. If he is still hovering around 4-5 point lead, it’s going to be a good night for Harris in the Midwest. If he’s up near 8-10 points, he’s probably winning. Anything less than 4 is a Harris blowout. 

I wouldn't go that far. He won Iowa by 8.2% in 2020. I don't think a repeat of that number signals a likely Trump win by any stretch.  

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Slacks

Slacks 6666

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On 10/30/2024 at 1:55 PM, kevwun said:

You don't even have to be in the mountains.  Everything loves to eat dogs and cats.  Coyotes, foxes, raccoons, owls, hawks, eagles, etc.

How you gonna leave Haitians off the list?

I'm 2 days behind... I was actually in Denver / Boulder Mon-Thu. I didn't see mountain lions or El Salvadorian gangs...  But I did have dinner with Shadeur Sanders (well, he was at the next table.)

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 28687

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ok, after the wisconsin shift (the blue wall state i was most concerned with), i started looking at the math. i think most people don't understand where we are with the electoral math, so let's take a quick look.

if everything holds, then wisconsin + pennsylvania + michigan = 270. that's the election. we don't need north caro, georgia, arizona, nevada. those 3 get us there and i think it's important people know that. she can get there with those, he cannot.

i already felt good about michigan, and now with the wisconsin news, i shift back to pa. what happens if we lose pa?

look at the other 4 swing states - nc, ga, az, nv. 

if we lose pa, we need any 2 of these swing states unless the 2 are az and nv. adding only those 2 gets us to 268. so if we get mi/wi and lose pa, then that's the deal.

ga + any of those = win

nc + any of those = win

az + nc or ga = win

nv + nc or ga = win

i just had to explain the rust belt path, which really does seem too easy, to someone who was skeptical. i don't know shit about fuck, but i can math pretty good.

i still think it's going to be a boatrace and all this is academic, but for the doom-and-gloomers out there, who often get distracted by all the bells and whistles and shiny objects, just concentrate on those 3 states and pour something expensive. we're gonna win.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47186

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1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

I don't think he'll implement mass deportation, no. That would crash the economy and no matter what Elon Musk says, they aren't doing that by shutting off the supply of cheap labor.

Do you also think they won't try to implement any Project 2025 shit? Because I'd bet on it. 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 28687

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15 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Walz is my kind of dude. I hope if he becomes VP he continues to make noise about these issues.

i think my favorite thing about walz, and there's a lot to like, is that he doesn't seem like he wants to be president.

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Upgrayedd

Upgrayedd 5749

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4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Do you also think they won't try to implement any Project 2025 shit? Because I'd bet on it. 

Good segment on Maketplace yesterday addressing the potential issues with replacing career bureaucrats/statisticians with political appointees at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (per Project 2025).  Wasn’t a good picture.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 25599

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1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

 

I'm posting with a note at screen bottom that @Js1 has replied, so I'm sure this is duplicative, but a narrow-ish trump lead in Iowa means she's doing well in the rest of the midwest.  Selzer doesn't put her thumb on the poll to try and get a reasonable result. She just asks people who their going to vote for, weights for demographics, and fires. She's been quite accurate for Iowa for multiple elections.  To be clear: Dems ain't winning in Iowa. 

 

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Yep. She basically caught Trump’s late surges in 2016 and 2020. 

I guess. I mean, she's an exceptional state pollster and I wish every state had one that good, but to extent that it's directionally predictive of the rest of the midwest is limited to the parts of Wisconsin, Minnesota, Nebraska, illinois and michigan that are demographically and economically similar to Iowa.
In other words,  if Trump is up by 5 or less, that's a good sign for Harris in Wisconsid and Michigan, but if it's more than that I'm not going to get the sweats. Biden lost by 8.2 and she had him down 7. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Chopper

Chopper 16032

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41 minutes ago, safe sex said:

I'd rather a private company handle my illegal drugs instead of the federal government that makes the drugs illegal. Never had an issue with Fe_Ex.

They've been intercepting certain packages at their Indiana hub and I think one other at the very least. Currency in many cases, which shows it doesn't need to be a package from China, or giving off weird vibes, or have metal inside. If you recall the twat who set off bombs in Austin that was through U*PS because they don't xray unlike fe*ex. I live in CO and have knowledge of people who've used just regular U*ps on the regular to ship edibles, cartridges and concentrates to tx. Plus if you ship U*PS and pay cash there's no record of the shipper. 

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Helobious

Helobious 9395

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6 minutes ago, ConferenceRoom said:

So what are they missing?

Same things they missed in 2016 and 2020. Trump always exceeds the polls, never the other way around. So the fact that the polls are so close now means he will likely win

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Js1

Js1 82683

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1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

It's just another example of the massive media narrative out there right now that Donald Trump is poised to win.

 

Because:

Trump is going to win:  Dems panic, read every article, watch every cable segment, etc.

Harris is going to win: Republicans bury their heads and stick to Fox News

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troph

troph 23964

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I just don’t see how he wins? His support is capped and hidden women vote and enthusiasm should allow KH to garner more votes, basically her ceiling is higher. I could see NV going red potentially on the tips issues but the rest I think Trump getting his ass kicked is very possible and her winning barely seems like the floor not the ceiling.

what am I missing?

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Valmy77

Valmy77 12584

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Just now, troph said:

I just don’t see how he wins? His support is capped and hidden women vote and enthusiasm should allow KH to garner more votes, basically her ceiling is higher. I could see NV going red potentially on the tips issues but the rest I think Trump getting his ass kicked is very possible and her winning barely seems like the floor not the ceiling.

what am I missing?

You are missing that we are very nervous and panicking over every little thing. 

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 19890

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Just now, David Dennison said:

It's just another example of the massive media narrative out there right now that Donald Trump is poised to win.

It's everywhere.

I theorize that mainstream media is leaning Trump out of survival. If he wins a close election, then they are validated with their coverage. If Kamala wins, then they believe they'll be forgiven. 

I don't think the latter is necessarily true, though. 

 

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David Dennison

David Dennison 17705

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Just now, Js1 said:

Because:

Trump is going to win:  Dems panic, read every article, watch every cable segment, etc.

Harris is going to win: Republicans bury their heads and stick to Fox News

It's infuriating.

Look at any "liberal" media page. The name Trump dominates the headlines.

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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 38747

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3 minutes ago, Chopper said:

They've been intercepting certain packages at their Indiana hub and I think one other at the very least. Currency in many cases, which shows it doesn't need to be a package from China, or giving off weird vibes, or have metal inside. If you recall the twat who set off bombs in Austin that was through U*PS because they don't xray unlike fe*ex. I live in CO and have knowledge of people who've used just regular U*ps on the regular to ship edibles, cartridges and concentrates to tx. Plus if you ship U*PS and pay cash there's no record of the shipper. 

What about D*L

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Valmy77

Valmy77 12584

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2 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Same things they missed in 2016 and 2020. Trump always exceeds the polls, never the other way around. So the fact that the polls are so close now means he will likely win

Well there it is. Trump is doomed.

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ConferenceRoom

ConferenceRoom 5967

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3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Because:

Trump is going to win:  Dems panic, read every article, watch every cable segment, etc.

Harris is going to win: Republicans bury their heads and stick to Fox News

This is why I didn't click on the article. Instead I received critical information about the source's integrity from Js1 and confirmation of a Harris win from Helobious. Surly is a one-stop shop. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 103337

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16 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

My neighbors would be gone and the food would fucking suck.

I mentioned this before, but it's actually a real-deal, and how we should look at our fellow human beings as an asset, not a liability.

The boy has lived overseas in the UK and Germany the past several years.  When he was home for Xmas this last year, as we were running errands on N. Lamar, he sighed and commented "man...I really miss mexicans.  It's just something I grew up so used to, and you really notice their absence over there."  He went on to talk about how it wasn't just the food, it was the vibe.  Generally happy folks, often going to or from working hard.  Just, literally, the kinds of attitudes and behaviors you WANT to see in your neighbors.

A generation ago, we would describe someone wearing work boots and a hard hat from sunup to sundown during the week, then having a backyard bbq with lots of family and friends, as the ideal American.  Now.....we hate him, because he's brown and speaks spanish.  WTF?  Hispanics are great Americans.  They are, quite often, the best of us.

9 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

how much for 3.5 minutes? 

Dude.  Like you can go TWICE at your age.

4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

What's with the * in these carrier posts?

I du*no.

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hobbes2702

hobbes2702 12490

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19 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

They'll definitely try. Not sure how much of it they'll actually implement.

As with mass deportation, I'd prefer not to find out.

 

The idea that nothing would really change is folly. They might not be successful in implementing any policy, but a Trump election would have pretty grave effect (affect?) on the rest of the world. It would signal a stronger shift back towards fascism and authoritarianism, it would be the end of Ukraine and Palestine, and would have big ramifications on the electoral process moving forward.

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