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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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Js1

Js1 82683

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Chopper said:

Cook is independent but their lead analyst is Dave Wasserman who's apparently had his brain infested with lizards so I'd put them most likely to err on the R side.

image.png.f4cae06012a259ad5d9dcb9e4e57517a.png

That is just a huge range.  But way higher range for Dems

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Js1

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Posted
1 minute ago, hookem2010 said:

I've said it before, but @Js1 has put me into a zen-like state the last 2 weeks. He's either Morpheus, seeing the prophecy of our salvation unfolding, or I am Cypher, allowing myself to be willfully deluded in order to avoid dealing with the coming horror.

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Jive Turkey

Jive Turkey 12223

Posted
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23 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i think my favorite thing about walz, and there's a lot to like, is that he doesn't seem like he wants to be president.

i've always thought that was a massive reason why Kamala picked him.  i'm sure Newsom, Shapiro, Beshear, and Whitmer were thinking that if either Shapiro or Beshear got the VP nod, then the others could kiss POTUS away since the incumbent VP would most certainly be the odds on favorite to be the Dem nominee in 2034.  that may have stressed Kamala a bit, to give such a huge boost to one of those guys.  but i bet Walz told her that if she picks him and they win, he'd be 68 after 2 terms and has no interest in being POTUS. 

that will leave the race wide open in 2032 for Newsom (who will be 65), Shapiro (who will be 59), Whitmer (who will be 62), and Beshear (who will be 54).

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 13955

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Jive Turkey said:

i've always thought that was a massive reason why Kamala picked him.  i'm sure Newsom, Shapiro, Beshear, and Whitmer were thinking that if either Shapiro or Beshear got the VP nod, then the others could kiss POTUS away since the incumbent VP would most certainly be the odds on favorite to be the Dem nominee in 2034.  that may have stressed Kamala a bit, to give such a huge boost to one of those guys.  but i bet Walz told her that if she picks him and they win, he'd be 68 after 2 terms and has no interest in being POTUS. 

that will leave the race wide open in 2032 for Newsom (who will be 65), Shapiro (who will be 59), Whitmer (who will be 62), and Beshear (who will be 54).

From what I understand, that’s what happened.  Walz said he had no interest in ever running for president whereas, Shapiro said he saw himself as a “co president.”

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Royalfan5

Royalfan5 2207

Posted
Posted
Just now, Aqua Buddha said:

From what I understand, that’s what happened.  Walz said he had no interest in ever running for president whereas, Shapiro said he saw himself as a “co president.”

Walz is a DC to the core. He knows his role, and it's to get stops. 

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Js1

Js1 82683

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

From what I understand, that’s what happened.  Walz said he had no interest in ever running for president whereas, Shapiro said he saw himself as a “co president.”

Yep!  His big selling point is he is a team player because he has no ambition to be president.  Shapiro would have been an absolute headache. 

Also the idea that he pitched that to Harris' team is so insulting.  Like the first female president can't do the job without a man next to her, holding her hand. 

Edited by Js1
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nolongerU2horn

nolongerU2horn 695

Posted
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21 minutes ago, Chopper said:

They've been intercepting certain packages at their Indiana hub and I think one other at the very least. Currency in many cases, which shows it doesn't need to be a package from China, or giving off weird vibes, or have metal inside. If you recall the twat who set off bombs in Austin that was through U*PS because they don't xray unlike fe*ex. I live in CO and have knowledge of people who've used just regular U*ps on the regular to ship edibles, cartridges and concentrates to tx. Plus if you ship U*PS and pay cash there's no record of the shipper. 

The Austin bomber did not use USPS. The first 4 were left on doorsteps/at the curb, then the next two were fedex. The last one was another roadside package

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Helobious

Helobious 9395

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, nolongerU2horn said:

The Austin bomber did not use USPS. The first 4 were left on doorsteps/at the curb, then the next two were fedex. The last one was another roadside package

And his fedex one would’ve made it out if it didn’t explode at the facility

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Chopper

Chopper 16032

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, nolongerU2horn said:

The Austin bomber did not use USPS. The first 4 were left on doorsteps/at the curb, then the next two were fedex. The last one was another roadside package

Ah gotcha. Detail forgotten. Must've been another bomber. Point stands.

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flatdawgs

flatdawgs 1224

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, UpperWestside said:

So thank you for all of the advice and information you provided. I can best explain the plan by saying that none of it has to do with finding an island paradise. That includes coming to Hawaii. Moving to Hawaii has more to do with having the ability to gain more historical knowledge that I want about the war as well as the people who lived in the countries we fought in as we moved through the Central Pacific.

I have read four books by a travel writer that @InkaUtexasput me onto. J. Maarten Troost. His book from the late 90’s about living on Tarawa with his then girlfriend and now wife really helped push me in the direction I have gone. I hope that I can perhaps go down to DC to meet him before I leave to hear from him in person. I will gladly listen to anymore stories and advice you have to share as well. You can DM me and share contact info with me as I like to be as prepared as possible for what is coming. Yesterday when I was opening up a bank account here my banker asked me about my move and I mentioned wanting to live in The Solomons. To her it is a place to go for, in her words, the pristine beaches it is. For me the reality has nothing to do with that. Living there would be difficult and the geopolitical situation, along with competing factions wanting control of the area for their own selfish reasons makes it a fairly unstable place. Yet still I know that’s a place I will live. I could stay in Hawaii and live comfortably for the rest of my life, but that is not how I am wired I suppose. The desire to either help people live a better life and help to educate them is something that keeps pushing me forward each day. We as a country did not do right by the people of The Solomons, or really any of those island nations we moved through and they are still paying the price for that eight decades later.
 

I have attempted to explain to friends and co-workers that while Hawaii may look like paradise to them if they visit it is just home to those who have to live and work there. Will I enjoy living on an island? Absolutely because it fits the lifestyle and personality I have, but coming here for me is part of a journey that will lead me into teaching. Whether that winds up being at a university level or below I do not know, but I am okay with whatever happens. That’s life in a nutshell for me I guess. You take the good and not so good and just keep going each day trying to do better for those you meet and come across each day. 
 

 

Good on ya, seriously. You're going into it with the right perspective (and we did very few favors to many of the Pacific island peoples after the war - throw on that pile our still shameful refusal to fully recognize the Philippine Scouts for what they did under occupation as well).

Melanesia is a fascinating place; i slightly preferred Vanuatu to the Solomons, save for the war history, but both amazing people and places. Maybe you'll be the one to make a difference there. it's sad to me to see China making inroads in a place that holds some of our most sacred ground (Guadalcanal, for others reading).

Love Troost - worked with his mom many years ago, although never met him. Funny guy and good writer who slayed some demons along the way. His description of Tarawa is spot on, BTW. 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 25599

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34 minutes ago, Chopper said:

To add to what was posted earlier about candidate schedules:

image.png.710e5387ea4bf4cd4573d6f1c57c12bf.png

Trump's weather machine. It works though. He's done the same thing the last two campaigns and closed very strong each time because it gives the press the impression of momentum. 

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Goredho

Goredho 17160

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Skipper said:

I've been far too busy this week to follow the detail day to day much less minute to minute.  But the contrast between extreme confidence both 'sides' seem to have is fascinating.  I spend a few minutes catching up on this thread and see some of the screenshots/links and feel better.  Then i get texts from Trump supporters with similar screenshots and links with right leaning data scientist claiming it is all but over for Trump based on early voting demographics.  Trumpers that are closely following this are extremely confident.  And of course at least most true national people seem to just hedge and think it's going to be close.   I get that is all by design, particularly on the Trump side, and that even if their internal polling showed he was losing bigly they would project otherwise in order to challenge it as 'rigged'.

But it sure seems like everyone's algorithm is just amplifying their preferred view on things.   I think inevitable that no matter the actual outcome, we are going to have 40% of this country not only pissed off but in shock at the results based on what their social media is telling them.

It’s almost like the goal is discord and violence with the election just being the mechanism to achieve it.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 17705

Posted
Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

The idea that nothing would really change is folly. They might not be successful in implementing any policy, but a Trump election would have pretty grave effect (affect?) on the rest of the world. It would signal a stronger shift back towards fascism and authoritarianism, it would be the end of Ukraine and Palestine, and would have big ramifications on the electoral process moving forward.

Of course, you're right. It just baffles me to no end that nearly half the country supports this man and his brand of politics. Part of me feels like his supporters are so protected by privilege that they believe they'll never be subjected to any of the negative consequences of another Trump presidency. 

 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 103338

Posted
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1 minute ago, Goredho said:

It’s almost like the goal is discord and violence with the election just being the mechanism to achieve it.

Someone in a position of power needs to send a very fucking clear message to these fucknuts.

"Some of you seem to want violence.  You talk about your 'second amendment rights,' and 'seeking retribution' against the opposition.  You need to understand one thing, very, very clearly.  If you are dumb enough to start shooting, we the American people will shoot back.  You aren't the only people who own weapons.  We just don't cosplay about it.  But I promise you - there are millions of Americans who can, will, and are ready to shoot back if you take up arms against our country and the people in it.  You in the back, you hear me?  You best fucking hear me."

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Covri

Covri 6141

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

i think my favorite thing about walz, and there's a lot to like, is that he doesn't seem like he wants to be president.

Maybe that’s just what he wants us to think….

 

Spoiler

image.png.3ef17db4c23e04d1466e4b46d9421754.png

 

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 19890

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Of course, you're right. It just baffles me to no end that nearly half the country supports this man and his brand of politics. Part of me feels like his supporters are so protected by privilege that they believe they'll never be subjected to any of the negative consequences of another Trump presidency. 

 

Most of them are trying to reclaim that privilege, IMO. 

 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9516

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That is just a huge range.  But way higher range for Dems

I like Charlie Cooke, Amy Walter, and Wasserman.  They are good people and are honest. 

I think Dave is showing the dissonance of this race:  Dems are overperforming down ballot across the board, and even have small, but not impossible chance of holding on to the Senate. 

But here we are pissing down our legs about the Presidential.  American's haven't ticket split like that since the 80s. 

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 51939

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Pancho said:

His surrogates were doing a rough—and I mean rough—job of cleaning this up this morning because you can’t defend it

 

image.thumb.png.78ab040d02efaaf1df71ae8a7d52fd93.png

Will his followers be able to put together that Chaney is a Republican and he’s saying we don’t need republicans leading us?

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 25599

Posted
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8 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Part of me feels like his supporters are so protected by privilege that they believe they'll never be subjected to any of the negative consequences of another Trump presidency. 

I know this is hard for progressives to accept, but the problem is that Trump's real core supports do not benefit from any of the positive consequences of a Harris presidency, in the same way they didn't benefit from the economic recovery under Biden or really any of the prosperity of the last 30 years. They are mad about it, and rightfully so. They don't think Trump will make it better and they don't give a fuck. Trump is revenge on the winners. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17136

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

Not suitable for copium addicts.

 

 

50 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Sean Trende works for Real Clear Politics.

Nothing real or clear about their politics.  

LOL, from the article:

Quote

 

On October 23, you wrote an article with the headline “It’s Close, But the Signs Aren’t Good for Harris.” I’m wondering if that’s still your basic view of the election a few days out. 


I think the headline was a little bit overstated, in retrospect. I think, overall, the polls are close — all point to a very close race. But if you look at the bigger picture and everything else surrounding the race — I think to the extent we’re going to rely on vibes, they’re better for Trump. I think Trump’s had a couple rough news cycles since then, but I still think, on balance, once you get past the polls — which, again, point to a very close race — the way I might put it is I’d rather be playing his hand than hers.

And why is that?
Well, you look at what the campaigns are doing beyond what the polls say. Harris went to Texas, which I thought was perhaps an encouraging sign for her campaign, but he’s doing things like going to Coachella …

 

Ah, yes, he went to Coachella. Not the concert mind you, just the general area. And the his supporters were left without busses (https://ktla.com/news/california/attendees-describe-absolute-chaos-after-trumps-southern-california-rally/). Apparently, according to Sean, this is good vibes for Trump. 

Let's see what else Sean has got:

Quote

 

And you mentioned the Madison Square Garden rally in your piece. Of course, that didn’t end up going so well for Trump.


No. But these are the types of things you do when you think things are going well and you’re trying to maybe win the popular vote or save some House seats.

 

Oh. Yes, yes, of course. I guess the thing that went horribly counts as good vibes. And that's pretty much all he had to say in favor of Trump in the article. There is some stuff about Nevada I guess, but beyond that he had nothing. So vibes are what everyone is missing. And apparently the vibes for Trump are good. Thanks, Sean. 

 

 

 

 

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Valmy77

Valmy77 12584

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I know this is hard for progressives to accept, but the problem is that Trump's real core supports do not benefit from any of the positive consequences of a Harris presidency, in the same way they didn't benefit from the economic recovery under Biden or really any of the prosperity of the last 30 years. They are mad about it, and rightfully so. They don't think Trump will make it better and they don't give a fuck. Trump is revenge on the winners. 

I completely accept that. It basically what made me a leftist in 2016 and why I want things like UBI and Medicare for all. 

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Chopper

Chopper 16032

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Posted
6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Wait, Trump is accusing someone of lacking the guts to go fight?  That's rich.

1 on 9. 9 on 1 is the only way the dotard would fight and he'd hide around a corner.

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I know this is hard for progressives to accept, but the problem is that Trump's real core supports do not benefit from any of the positive consequences of a Harris presidency, in the same way they didn't benefit from the economic recovery under Biden or really any of the prosperity of the last 30 years. They are mad about it, and rightfully so. They don't think Trump will make it better and they don't give a fuck. Trump is revenge on the winners. 

WHAT? They may not know how they benefitted but they benefitted among the highest levels. They're just too ignorant to understand how. 

 

Anyway

image.png.d5cd8b590fa2668ab5830bb538ffc95b.png

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