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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

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Chult86
Chult86

I don't post all that often, though don't mistake that for not enjoying this board's discourse, OUsucks/Texags point and laughs, and quality original content on a frequent basis. I haven't felt t

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I’m a thread lurker and really only jump in for some sarcasm here and there. But, as an attempt at sincerity and to help get things back on track, here we go: I was generally raised as a republic

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WelfareBuysMyWeed

WelfareBuysMyWeed 5249

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1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Honestly this is the best argument flippable Haley/Bush/normie Republicans who plan to hold their nose for Donald Trump: presidents come and go until they decide they don’t want to leave office. We can be reasonably certain if President Harris is voted out she’ll leave. Trump has already proven he won’t. 

I honestly can't believe this message isn't banged about more. It's not a policy issue at stake, this is a referendum on democracy itself. One candidate wants to continue our political system of peaceful transfer of power going forward. The other is vowing to dismantle it and replace it with an authoritarian implementation. He says it'll be the last time we ever have to vote. He already started riots over this. He said he should be able to serve more than two terms.

This isn't about the economy, or immigration, or any of that shit. More fundamentally, this is an election on whether the USA as we know it continues to exist or gets replaced with a defacto dictatorship. This is fucking scary.

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G650

G650 13087

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4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Disagree

 

Totally fine to disagree. Empirical evidence has shown who they are to where I'm pretty confident in my opinion though.

 

At the end of the day, from what you have posted over the year I surmise our policy preferences are pretty closely aligned, at least economically. The only real difference I see is you have an eye to the middle class outcomes and I wouldn't care if the US middle class drove off a cliff.

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Beantown Express 2.0

Beantown Express 2.0 6506

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So, I know the end of America is important and all, but this thread has brought up Chili's talk and I must be the only one who does the following.  At Chili's and nowhere else do I order the ranch to dip my chips in along with the salsa and it's fucking delicious.   Also, earlier in this thread there was talk about Project 2025 taking away Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc....  Yeah, I guess those are important since they give people money to live on and health care but the thing that really hurts most people that Project 2025 looks to take away is porn.  

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Js1

Js1 82702

Posted
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5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Disagree

Honestly this is the best argument flippable Haley/Bush/normie Republicans who plan to hold their nose for Donald Trump: presidents come and go until they decide they don’t want to leave office. We can be reasonably certain if President Harris is voted out she’ll leave. Trump has already proven he won’t. 

And this. 

Literally, just fucking elect her and then go back to picking Republicans in 2025/2026 and beyond.  For the love of God, you will get another chance in 2028 if she wins.  

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WelfareBuysMyWeed

WelfareBuysMyWeed 5249

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Just now, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

So, I know the end of America is important and all, but this thread has brought up Chili's talk and I must be the only one who does the following.  At Chili's and nowhere else do I order the ranch to dip my chips in along with the salsa and it's fucking delicious.   Also, earlier in this thread there was talk about Project 2025 taking away Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc....  Yeah, I guess those are important since they give people money to live on and health care but the thing that really hurts most people that Project 2025 looks to take away is porn.  

ranch dip at a restaurant? I'll dip chips in ranch at home, but I don't think I've ever done that at a restaurant. I always go for the queso with beef.

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gmr548

gmr548 16275

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Queen Ann basically nails the race in Iowa. Her last poll was Trump +4. If he is still hovering around 4-5 point lead, it’s going to be a good night for Harris in the Midwest. If he’s up near 8-10 points, he’s probably winning. Anything less than 4 is a Harris blowout. 

Trump + 5.5 incoming lol

3 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

ok, after the wisconsin shift (the blue wall state i was most concerned with), i started looking at the math. i think most people don't understand where we are with the electoral math, so let's take a quick look.

if everything holds, then wisconsin + pennsylvania + michigan = 270. that's the election. we don't need north caro, georgia, arizona, nevada. those 3 get us there and i think it's important people know that. she can get there with those, he cannot.

i already felt good about michigan, and now with the wisconsin news, i shift back to pa. what happens if we lose pa?

look at the other 4 swing states - nc, ga, az, nv. 

if we lose pa, we need any 2 of these swing states unless the 2 are az and nv. adding only those 2 gets us to 268. so if we get mi/wi and lose pa, then that's the deal.

ga + any of those = win

nc + any of those = win

az + nc or ga = win

nv + nc or ga = win

i just had to explain the rust belt path, which really does seem too easy, to someone who was skeptical. i don't know shit about fuck, but i can math pretty good.

i still think it's going to be a boatrace and all this is academic, but for the doom-and-gloomers out there, who often get distracted by all the bells and whistles and shiny objects, just concentrate on those 3 states and pour something expensive. we're gonna win.

The thing about PA is that if Harris loses it, it's hard to see a path where she both holds on to WI and MI, and picks up a GA/NC/AZ/NV combo to win. Like yes the path is mathematically there but demographically it's very dicey without PA.

2 hours ago, David Dennison said:

It's infuriating.

Look at any "liberal" media page. The name Trump dominates the headlines.

I haven't listed to Pod Save America in two months because every episode is just "Trump did XYZ!"

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

They feel like they don't.  But they're fucking wrong.

Just one easy example: rural broadband.  That's a Biden-Harris issue, not a Trump one.

Another easy example: massive reinvestment in manufacturing (see chip production).  A shitload of those jobs are perfect for the Trumpy class.

They still have things that Trump and Project 2025 want to fucking take away (SS, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.).

They don't SEE anything because they don't look for shit except what's on their chosen platforms.  

And the hell of it is, there is no way to ever, ever get them to see.  They won't look.  They can't look.  We just have to fucking do what we can with their idiocy dragging us down.

This. Having benefitted and feeling like you benefitted are two different things. It's the latter that matters in an election though.

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

I have been on the record that everything is going to go one way, for the most part.  There will be some ticket splitting for incumbents like Tester/Brown and some challengers, like Allred and DMP, because Cruz and Scott are not well liked.

What it feels like, to me, is they're polling, finding House Dems/Senate Dems up, but then adjusting topline numbers only for the presidential race.  Like if you poll Arizona, and find Gallego up 8, and Harris up 3-4, it feels like they're fudging the top line to get the presidential result they want. 

Ticket splitting isn't rare, but it's not going to be this massive thing where Gallego, Rosen, Casey, Slotkin and Baldwin all win and Trump wins those states.  The only possible state that should see legit ticket splits are Montana, Ohio and NC GOV. 

I'd just add it depends on the margins. Trump +0.5 with a D +1 Senate race, maybe. But Gallego or Rosen aren't winning by 3, 5, 8, whatever while Trump wins those states.

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

You should go door to door and tell them that. And you do, consider, who signed the repeal of Glass Steagal? Who implemented NAFTA? Who implemented TARP? Who made the decision not to break anybody up or prosecute the leadership of firms that created the financial crisis? Who signed the bill that made the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts permanent? Who declined to sever the connection between healthcare and employment insurance? Hey, who was married to the guy who signed the repeal of Glass Steagal? Oh, right. The 2016 Democratic Nominee. Who authored and co-sponsored the 2005 bankruptcy bill that stripped protections from millions and unleashed a wash of private student loans? The 2020 Democratic Nominee.
Here's a famous chart - did the trendline change when Democrats were in power?
image.png.52a9498197544b9c47ebf8bfe958e193.png

 

 

I'm all in on defeating Trump and Trumpism, but the idea that Democrats have been champions of the American middle class over the last 30 years is utter horseshit.  

 

 

Obviously this is a generally fair analysis but I think it's important to point out Biden has been the most progressive POTUS on domestic policy since... LBJ? Tons of investment funneled into these communities. I don't think it's fair to say the working class has not benefitted from a Biden presidency; but I also agree perception is reality.

35 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Not only the margin, but having Trump capped at 48-49%. You'd think they could manufacture a 50%-51% sample in the rust belt states for the circle jerk.

Knock on wood but today is the day where I'm starting to feel a hint of confidence. Maybe it's just the info bubble. You can still pick out data to make the case for Trump. But there are a lot of flashing red lights if I'm the Trump campaign.

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25523

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24 minutes ago, mchookem said:

Pete will be 50 😁

and still gay.   I love the dude just short of blowing him, but this country won't elect a gay man. 

6 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

So, I know the end of America is important and all, but this thread has brought up Chili's talk and I must be the only one who does the following.  At Chili's and nowhere else do I order the ranch to dip my chips in along with the salsa and it's fucking delicious.   Also, earlier in this thread there was talk about Project 2025 taking away Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc....  Yeah, I guess those are important since they give people money to live on and health care but the thing that really hurts most people that Project 2025 looks to take away is porn.  

chili's chips, when warm and fresh, are as good as tortilla chips get.   

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Hank Kingsley

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1 minute ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

IF all those Puerto Ricans in FL voted and turned the state of FL blue on election night (yeah, I know it's not gonna happen) I may have to crack open the Pappy 23 I have been hoarding.  

Kamala winning is reason enough to open it. 

 

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Js1

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7 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

IF all those Puerto Ricans in FL voted and turned the state of FL blue on election night (yeah, I know it's not gonna happen) I may have to crack open the Pappy 23 I have been hoarding.  

Fuck that, I’ll be booking a summer vacay in PR and throw my money around like paper towels after a hurricane to thank them. 

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honolulu horn

honolulu horn 6067

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Fuck that, I’ll be booking a summer vacay in PR and throw my money around like paper towels after a hurricane to thank them. 

I'm heading to PR next March. If they help seal the election for Kamala I will kiss every Puerto Rican I find until I'm arrested

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17138

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20 minutes ago, G650 said:

Aren't there like half a million of them in Florida?

 

14 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

1.2 millones Papi.

So you're saying that could have an impact when Trump won Florida in 2020 by *checks notes * 371,000 votes? 

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Mole

Mole 4267

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1 hour ago, immamac said:

my 5 year old is aware of who Trump and Harris are, but everything he hears about is how Trump is a bad man and he asks about it and we just explain to him in plain English not in some weird partisan way that the way Trump behaves and the things he does are not good for anyone to do. It's not about being political, it's about teaching your kids that being a scoundrel piece of shit isn't ok. I don't have all the positive things and whatever to say about Kamala, but it's easy not to have to explain why she is in court or why she is saying Mexicans are bad. It's crazy to think that my son who strongly identifies as Mexican can pick up on the background noise of ABC World News with Dave Miur and be like why doesn't he like Mexicans?

That's what is wrong with Trump. 

Family values and protecting our children, supposedly conservative values:

My 7-year-old loves learning about presidents. He can tell you info about most presidents — their party, when they were elected, who they beat, something interesting about their presidency, etc. He wanted to watch the debate and I had to tell him that it wasn’t appropriate for children since that guy would likely say terrible things — which he did. Anything involving the former president should be rated NC-17.

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 74835

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33 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

So, I know the end of America is important and all, but this thread has brought up Chili's talk and I must be the only one who does the following.  At Chili's and nowhere else do I order the ranch to dip my chips in along with the salsa and it's fucking delicious.   Also, earlier in this thread there was talk about Project 2025 taking away Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc....  Yeah, I guess those are important since they give people money to live on and health care but the thing that really hurts most people that Project 2025 looks to take away is porn.  

 

wing stop and pappaduexes have Michelin star ranch, better than chilis 

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flatdawgs

flatdawgs 1227

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So, all this talk of Chili's and I got to thinking - here on the Surl I'm in Virtual Texas, but in my very blue corner of this country that is my home, there are no Chili's. None. None in WA or in OR. Zero. (No Bennigans either.) So - you can talk all the rah-rah Kamala progressive liberal stuff you want, but keep that in mind before you make Bah Gawd Texas into a progressive hellstate bereft of Chili's. You have been warned....

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flatdawgs

flatdawgs 1227

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2 minutes ago, Mole said:

Family values and protecting our children, supposedly conservative values:

These are common values of humanity. This phrasing has always pissed me off (not directed at you, Mole, just 40 years of propaganda).

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 74835

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4 minutes ago, flatdawgs said:

So, all this talk of Chili's and I got to thinking - here on the Surl I'm in Virtual Texas, but in my very blue corner of this country that is my home, there are no Chili's. None. None in WA or in OR. Zero. (No Bennigans either.) So - you can talk all the rah-rah Kamala progressive liberal stuff you want, but keep that in mind before you make Bah Gawd Texas into a progressive hellstate bereft of Chili's. You have been warned....

Season 2 Nbc GIF by The Office

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Willfully Horn

Willfully Horn 7836

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Interesting article from the Daily Beast about mounting pressure on shrub Bush to endorse Harris. 

“During a live interview that aired Friday on The New Yorker Radio Hour podcast, Liz Cheney said, “I can’t explain why George W. Bush hasn’t spoken out, but I think it’s time, and I wish that he would.””

Shrub’s daughter is all in with Harris. Of course she is.

 

 

 

https://www.thedailybeast.com/resizer/v2/IGYLHUXDCBG2TPUUTLDLGPYZO4.jpg?auth=dc5491d5d536a929242432da817d5584718ffb67dc54011d4e0f832624504612&width=1440&height=810

image.jpeg

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 18350

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Posted
4 hours ago, Blotto said:

Is it your theory that they just joined the trump cult this morning?

image.gif.b523be9e07300dcdf398f508ba765a22.gif

 

What is that, another  5 or 6 votes for the good guys? 

No. But after the anti-vax stuff, was hoping she had come around.  The rest, I am happy to wash my hands of. 

I think there has been complete supression of the suffering of women in Texas. Evidence is that in the last week, two stories have started to be talked about, one from 2021 and one from 2023. Why are we just hearing about this now? Fucking ridiculous.

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wildcat09

wildcat09 28415

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This is about to be a bloodbath. Nate Cohn is basically saying pollsters are smol beans who didn't want Republicans to yell at them and were scared we'd realize that everything they do is worthless:

Quote

Perhaps the very best reason to think the polls might underestimate Kamala Harris this cycle is simply that many pollsters are so concerned — understandably — about underestimating Mr. Trump.

It’s hard to overstate how traumatic the 2016 and 2020 elections were for many pollsters. For some, another underestimate of Mr. Trump could be a major threat to their business and their livelihood. For the rest, their status and reputations are on the line. If they underestimate Mr. Trump a third straight time, how can their polls be trusted again? It is much safer, whether in terms of literal self-interest or purely psychologically, to find a close race than to gamble on a clear Harris victory.

At the same time, the 2016 and 2020 polling misfires shattered many pollsters’ confidence in their own methods and data. When their results come in very blue, they don’t believe it. And frankly, I share that same feeling: If our final Pennsylvania poll comes in at Harris +7, why would I believe it? As a result, pollsters are more willing to take steps to produce more Republican-leaning results.

Over the last month, I’ve written about one such example: weighting on past vote. Many of the blue-ribbon pollsters using this method know it doesn’t go by the book. They didn’t do it in the past, and they’re probably aware that it would have induced polling error over the last half century of survey research. (Among the problems is that a surprising number of respondents are likelier to remember voting for the winner.)
But after the last few cycles, they don’t trust their data to represent some of Mr. Trump’s supporters. Their data may still look implausibly “blue,” and using this method moves their result toward Mr. Trump. They wouldn’t do it otherwise.

Even the pollsters who haven’t taken such heavy-handed measures may still, subtly, be tugged by a decade’s worth of focus on finding the full measure of Trump support. Whenever there’s a choice between two equally defensible paths, they have almost certainly erred toward the right.

 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 103354

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Posted
45 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

Admit it.  You tell everyone you're a Spaniard.

Funny thing is, when I was a wee one, my mom enjoyed scandalizing the white Houston oilfield trash with whom we mostly associated.  People would hear my name, and so as to avoid even the hint of suggesting that I was low-born, they'd ask "oh...is he Spanish?"  My mother would grin, and cigarette in hand, would answer "naah...he's a little mexican."

My mom was a tacky bitch, and lord did she have fun with it.

41 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

So, I know the end of America is important and all, but this thread has brought up Chili's talk and I must be the only one who does the following.  At Chili's and nowhere else do I order the ranch to dip my chips in along with the salsa and it's fucking delicious.   

Ummmmm......

39 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

not a bad play at Chuys either

THIS.  The Chuy's jalapeno ranch may well be the main reason to ever go to a Chuy's again.

16 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

What if the republican is jv?

If that's the case, then nationally....

laughing-haha.gif

...because we fucking SMOKE that clown.  He won't get nearly enough of the MAGAs inspired enough to vote, women loathe him....God, please let him be the future of the party [spoiler - he's not].

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