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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

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gmr548

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8 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

I don't understand why these numbers are different, even slightly.

 

5 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

No, I mean is Kamala going to be the 47th President and is a woman going in win in 2024 is the same question.

Fewer shares on the right maybe makes it more sensitive to swings? Not familiar with the ins and outs of predict it.

Edit: Wait, I bet it's some MAGA nutjobs holding out on the Michelle Obama bit. That might unironically be my answer.

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Brisketexan

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Just now, InkaUtexas said:

If there was a time for an ex-President to say something it is now. Bush really should. Or even better, Laura. The Emperor, I mean his VP, came out against Trump.

 

Honestly, of Bush's many unforgiveable sins -- and there are many -- his failure to come out and condemn Trump is up there at the top.  Because it's easy, it's right.  And it's a shot at a sliver of redemption....but he won't take it.  He's either a complete shit human (for his many failings, I truly don't believe that he is 100% shit), or a gutless coward (this seems quite likely), or both (an option that's on the table).

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quigley

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2 hours ago, G650 said:

Exactly. Core Trump support isn't remotely tied to who didn't win the inflation lottery of the past couple years, in fact it can't be tied to it at all because of the very fact it goes back 8+ years.

 

To this day it is insane how people writ large still don't get who the core Trump supporters really are. It's upper middle suburban/exurban whites of certain persuasions. It's not Cleetus and Meemaw.

It's both. I know PLENTY OF Cleetus's and Meemaw's that see Turmp as their champion. And there are far more of Cleetus's than there are Tobias's.

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Red Five

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Just now, Brisketexan said:

Honestly, of Bush's many unforgiveable sins -- and there are many -- his failure to come out and condemn Trump is up there at the top.  Because it's easy, it's right.  And it's a shot at a sliver of redemption....but he won't take it.  He's either a complete shit human (for his many failings, I truly don't believe that he is 100% shit), or a gutless coward (this seems quite likely), or both (an option that's on the table).

It's possible he realizes he's popular with exactly no one, and thinks it could have the opposite effect. 

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InkaUtexas

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Just now, Brisketexan said:

Honestly, of Bush's many unforgiveable sins -- and there are many -- his failure to come out and condemn Trump is up there at the top.  Because it's easy, it's right.  And it's a shot at a sliver of redemption....but he won't take it.  He's either a complete shit human (for his many failings, I truly don't believe that he is 100% shit), or a gutless coward (this seems quite likely), or both (an option that's on the table).

Yeah. I think it is not wanting to break with the party.

But imagine if Laura did. She said fuck it, I vote how I want, like an independent strong woman who cares about the future of her daughters.

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G650

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Honestly, of Bush's many unforgiveable sins -- and there are many -- his failure to come out and condemn Trump is up there at the top.  Because it's easy, it's right.  And it's a shot at a sliver of redemption....but he won't take it.  He's either a complete shit human (for his many failings, I truly don't believe that he is 100% shit), or a gutless coward (this seems quite likely), or both (an option that's on the table).

I think its number 2

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Chips O'Toole

Chips O'Toole 1322

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5 minutes ago, immamac said:

Should I call chillis and try to get a national surly deal for Wednesday? Dead serious. 

Can you invite an age group/ generational historian or scholar to come and give a presentation so we can stop having these Boomer/genX arguments seemingly across the entire board?

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G650

G650 14233

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2 minutes ago, quigley said:

It's both. I know PLENTY OF Cleetus's and Meemaw's that see Turmp as their champion. And there are far more of Cleetus's than there are Tobias's.

I'm not sure what a Tobias is, but there's a lot more of the people I'm referring to than Cleeti in this country.

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quigley

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Cohn basically saying “I wouldn’t trust my own results bc they don’t match my vibes” is pure CYA. And pretty much why, unless polls are 150% correct this year, going to lead to them being ignored forever 

I really wish they'd been more upfront about the fact that they're current methods don't allow them to know shit about fuck. It could have lead to improvement of the system and less horserace with blinders on both the horses and the jockeys.

But, American media...

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aggie08

aggie08 21482

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Just now, Brisketexan said:

Honestly, of Bush's many unforgiveable sins -- and there are many -- his failure to come out and condemn Trump is up there at the top.  Because it's easy, it's right.  And it's a shot at a sliver of redemption....but he won't take it.  He's either a complete shit human (for his many failings, I truly don't believe that he is 100% shit), or a gutless coward (this seems quite likely), or both (an option that's on the table).

Yep. I've been on the "He's probably a pretty good dude that just had no business whatsoever being the President" train for two decades. But being a gutless pussy--we all know he's not voting for Trump-when his voice carries the weight of the only other living Republican President makes him an absolute shit heel. 

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Js1

Js1 85275

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Even Nate Silver’s new article is how he doesn’t trust the polls. In his words, roughly half of polls should show a result within 2.5 points of a tied race. It’s 80% this year. So much herding 

1 in 9.5 trillion odds of this happening 

1 in 2.8 million odds on Wisconsin having 33/36 polls showing the race within 2.5 points

1 in 300,000 for PA for 42/47 polls 

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gmr548

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2 minutes ago, Red Five said:

It's possible he realizes he's popular with exactly no one, and thinks it could have the opposite effect. 

THIS.

GWB left office with disapproval pushing 70%. Trump or Biden could only dream of that. To the extent his endorsement would swing anyone, it's at least as likely to help Trump as it is Harris.

It's also very possible he is voting Trump, because he fucks with the whole tax cuts and privatization over everything line of thinking.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89626

Posted
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6 hours ago, Skipper said:

 Then i get texts from Trump supporters with similar screenshots and links with right leaning data scientist claiming it is all but over for Trump based on early voting demographics.  Trumpers that are closely following this are extremely confident. 

Don’t listen to Trumpanzees.  They are being gaslighted every which way by Fox News and pumped full of disinformation on social media.

Listen to Donald Trump himself.  He will tell you everything you need to know.

His meltdowns on social media the past two days, his raging about how Liz Cheney should be shot, these are not the ramblings of a man who thinks he’s winning.

6 hours ago, Skipper said:

And of course at least most true national people seem to just hedge and think it's going to be close.   

The media wants a horse race, not a blowout.  Everybody tunes out on a blowout.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17525

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1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

THIS.

GWB left office with disapproval pushing 70%. Trump or Biden could only dream of that. To the extent his endorsement would swing anyone, it's at least as likely to help Trump as it is Harris.

It's also very possible he is voting Trump, because he fucks with the whole tax cuts and privatization over everything line of thinking.

0% chance he is voting Trump. 

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Chopper

Chopper 17230

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2 minutes ago, quigley said:

I really wish they'd been more upfront about the fact that they're current methods don't allow them to know shit about fuck. It could have lead to improvement of the system and less horserace with blinders on both the horses and the jockeys.

But, American media...

The NYT l-i-t-e-r-a-l-l-y used his polls to drive their political coverage and form the over-arching "story." I don't know if it's an early mea culpa or trying to escape responsibility for his work but everything he's saying is what I've been saying for weeks. Fuck him and fuck the polls. 

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

And this. 

Literally, just fucking elect her and then go back to picking Republicans in 2025/2026 and beyond.  For the love of God, you will get another chance in 2028 if she wins.  

That's actually not true, and part of the issue for their leadership, the math moving forward gets much more difficult for Republicans.  Their most bankable base, the elder automatic R voter will be dying in droves between now and then, and they know it.  

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mdmost

mdmost 42999

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4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Ha ha ha ha:

TL:DR -- we pissed off a lot of Puerto Ricans in some key states and now we're going to lose.

 

 

Take the loss pussy.

Oh the panic has set in. Tony might be a national hero after this is all over. 

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wildcat09

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10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Even Nate Silver’s new article is how he doesn’t trust the polls. In his words, roughly half of polls should show a result within 2.5 points of a tied race. It’s 80% this year. So much herding 

1 in 9.5 trillion odds of this happening 

1 in 2.8 million odds on Wisconsin having 33/36 polls showing the race within 2.5 points

1 in 300,000 for PA for 42/47 polls 

We're going to win the popular by 5+. We're gonna keep the Senate. We're gonna win the House. Florida is a possible EC pickup.  LFG.

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Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand

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24 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Are you saying the same people who are concerned about private student loans -- which Biden has tried and tried to take off the books only to face opposition at every turn from the GQP -- are the same people who were against Universal Healthcare but also in favor of a much stricter regulatory approach to banking? But also they're NOT 50 to 80 year olds but they're pissed about a financial services law passed 25 years ago. Oh you mentioned the law that stabilized the banking system from collapse, signed into law by SHRUB. And they hate Elizabeth Warren and any consumer protection too. What a bizarre conglomeration of laws those people are theoretically pissed about. Those people definitely seem incredibly confused at the very least. Please tell me what segment of the population is this delusional. Subscribers to a Matthew Yglesias substack? I don't think that's considered a demographic, sir. 

Circa after Obamacare became available 

"Thanks, Obama!"- fellow WWC employee at company meeting responding to the owner discussing that they dropped insurance coverage due to rising costs

"That was before Obama" (happened in 2005)- Me, grateful to have a Blue Cross Blue Shield Silver Plan for 101 dollars a month thru Obamacare

"Oh"- fellow WWC employee whom I can almost guarantee is still voting straight GOP

The notion this guy is blameless for obstinately voting against his own interests is absurd.

 

 

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SydneyCarton

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1 hour ago, Jive Turkey said:

Simple Trump thinks the guy is saying "who cares" about Biden.  no dumbass, he's making fun of you for still talking about Joe Biden WHO ISN'T YOUR OPPONENT.

Yeah he was saying who cares about Biden. 

21 minutes ago, immamac said:

Should I call chillis and try to get a national surly deal for Wednesday? Dead serious. 

National deal? There’s one by my office. I haven’t eaten at a chilis in 20-15 years. 

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

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17 minutes ago, Horndog said:

In a state decided by 11,000 votes in 2020.

Just runs up the score a bit more in my opinion, I'll have some final math tomorrow with the totals of EV, but my guess right now it's over 100k Harris in Georgia right now.   

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Js1

Js1 85275

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6 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

We're going to win the popular by 5+. We're gonna keep the Senate. We're gonna win the House. Florida is a possible EC pickup.  LFG.

clap please GIF

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26435

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55 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Are you saying the same people who are concerned about private student loans -- which Biden has tried and tried to take off the books only to face opposition at every turn from the GQP -- are the same people who were against Universal Healthcare but also in favor of a much stricter regulatory approach to banking? But also they're NOT 50 to 80 year olds but they're pissed about a financial services law passed 25 years ago. Oh you mentioned the law that stabilized the banking system from collapse, signed into law by SHRUB. And they hate Elizabeth Warren and any consumer protection too. What a bizarre conglomeration of laws those people are theoretically pissed about. Those people definitely seem incredibly confused at the very least. Please tell me what segment of the population is this delusional. Subscribers to a Matthew Yglesias substack? I don't think that's considered a demographic, sir. 

No offense, but I can only assume you’re being willfully obtuse here.

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Chopper

Chopper 17230

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4 minutes ago, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

Circa after Obamacare became available 

"Thanks, Obama!"- fellow WWC employee at company meeting responding to the owner discussing that they dropped insurance coverage due to rising costs

"That was before Obama" (happened in 2005)- Me, grateful to have a Blue Cross Blue Shield Silver Plan for 101 dollars a month thru Obamacare

"Oh"- fellow WWC employee whom I can almost guarantee is still voting straight GOP

The notion this guy is blameless for obstinately voting against his own interests is absurd.

Heck I'm not even talking about Obamacare. Obamacare was a compromise because the single payer plan that Clinton tried to pass went down in flames due to insurance companies, the AMA (doctors) and Republicans. Everyone knew it was imperfect but the key facets - portability (not tied to your job), no lifetime maximum (so you have actual insurance in case of a catastrophe) and to prohibit insurers from canceling individuals if they became too expensive -- are the reasons it was crafted the way it was. Imperfect but necessary. Can you imagine where we'd be if your healthcare were still tied to your job? And if insurance companies could just cancel you if they didn't want to pay for your care any longer? Talk about cancel culture - we actually had that. 

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