2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[mooseoutfront 3,643]

9 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Let her know that she isn't alone, my wife, who did 2 tours in Iraq has never felt the need to carry as a civilian.  However, should shit go south Tuesday, she is adamant about carrying from now on, while we finalize where we will be moving to out of the country (I don't really want to leave, but hey life is an adventure, so ok).  She is also adamant about laying low for a couple of weeks post election because at least a few nutjobs will do something (I think she's absolutely right on that).  

I very rarely carry a gun on my person when I’m not out in the woods, but with all the nut bags around here I’ll be packing for a few weeks no matter who wins. 

[Aqua Buddha 14,582]

I just leave this here:

 

[Underdog 28,584]

31 minutes ago, immamac said:

Should I call chillis and try to get a national surly deal for Wednesday? Dead serious. 

Limit you to no more than three Shirley Temples… 

 

[quigley 1,562]

18 minutes ago, Chopper said:

The NYT l-i-t-e-r-a-l-l-y used his polls to drive their political coverage and form the over-arching "story." I don't know if it's an early mea culpa or trying to escape responsibility for his work but everything he's saying is what I've been saying for weeks. Fuck him and fuck the polls. 

psst... you and I agree. We're among many critical of polling.

[BevoAbyss 2,058]

This for all the Bush-loving conservatives in here, especially the Texans:

I have a question for you in the aftermath of Trump proposing a firing squad for Liz Cheney -- the daughter of his VP?

Where is W on this?

What isn't he denouncing Trump, right now. 

What's he waiting on? 

Where's your Texas hero? 

Just wondering...

Edited November 1 by BevoAbyss

[MrBig 5,385]

29 minutes ago, immamac said:

Should I call chillis and try to get a national surly deal for Wednesday? Dead serious. 

Some Chili’s will be experiencing Winner Wednesday while others will experience Wipe Your Tears Wednesday. 

[quigley 1,562]

26 minutes ago, G650 said:

I'm not sure what a Tobias is, but there's a lot more of the people I'm referring to than Cleeti in this country.

Tobias = rich kid.

Are you saying that Trump doesn't have strong support from poor White people?

[Chopper 17,230]

6 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

Can we also get Tony Hinchcliffe booked as guest of honor for next tailgate?

Only if for the appearance fee he agrees to sit in a dunking booth. But nobody tell him it's for the symbolism.

[Evil Bill Obrien 3,267]

6 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

 

Trump better watch it, gets any sort of actual sun combined with that spray tan and he's gonna slide far enough down this handy dandy scale that even his most devout GQP followers won't vote for him anymore....

[HenryJames 66,038]

[Reynolds Woodcock 4,739]

2 minutes ago, BevoAbyss said:

This for all the Bush-loving conservatives in here, especially the Texans:

I have a question for you in the aftermath of Trump proposing a firing squad for Liz Cheney -- the daughter of his VP?

Where is W on this?

What isn't he denouncing Trump, right now. 

What's he waiting on? 

Where's your Texas hero? 

Half this thread (if not more) voted for Bush, but I don’t think a single one would stand up for him now. Most have realized they were duped by their upbringing and environment (although some still cling to some silly notion of fiscal conservatism or libertarianism). 

[GreenspointTexas 9,598]

12 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

 

Sigh

[quigley 1,562]

4 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

this genius says that minority votes in Georgia are down

There may be something weird going on in ATL / Athens specifically regarding GOTV. Anecdotally, fewer Black people doing canvassing than in past years.  Maybe simply because Warnock isn't on the ballot like 2022, but I've heard it.

[HOOKEM4 5,036]

I am going to hide at the ranch for 5 days. I can't quit this thread but I need to quit MSM. Waiting on the boar I named turnip to walk out so I can get rid of his ass.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,437]

8 minutes ago, BevoAbyss said:

This for all the Bush-loving conservatives in here, especially the Texans:

I have a question for you in the aftermath of Trump proposing a firing squad for Liz Cheney -- the daughter of his VP?

Where is W on this?

What isn't he denouncing Trump, right now. 

What's he waiting on? 

Where's your Texas hero? 

Just wondering...

The Dixie chicks were wrong about Bush. He’s from Connecticut. Michael Bolton is the one who should be embarrassed.

[bolverk 29,656]

1 hour ago, aggie08 said:

So we're all going to our local Chili's on Wednesday in solidarity if the election goes our way, correct?

If I see any of you, I'll knowingly nod.

 

50 minutes ago, Dr. Teeth said:

 

41 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Don't forget Aubrey Plaza too. 

 

40 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Please work out a deal with Aubrey Plaza while you're at it. Thanks!

[G650 14,244]

1 minute ago, quigley said:

Tobias = rich kid.

Are you saying that Trump doesn't have strong support from poor White people?

He does from some. I spend my days with poor white dudes among others, they aren't universally, or even majority, Trumpy.

Upper middle suburban white dudes who like F250s, or have construction companies, or work in finance or plenty of other cross sections are like 99% Trump true believers and there are millions of them.

 

Hell I posted the dude with the Trump Train Fountain speedboat in here, that's like the median Trump acolyte.

 

How many of you guys know anyone that was at the J6 riot? I talk to one almost every day in a professional capacity. Owns a small excavation and grading company, been raking it in past few years. Literally 100% opposite of people who have been left behind supposedly in this economy.

[Js1 85,291]

Just now, G650 said:

Upper middle suburban white dudes who like F250s, or have construction companies, or work in finance or plenty of other cross sections are like 99% Trump true believers and there are millions of them.

Aggy

[Chuckie Finster 22,694]

Winning vibes.

[InkaUtexas 25,874]

3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The Dixie chicks were wrong about Bush. He’s from Connecticut. Michael Bolton is the one who should be embarrassed.

[Chopper 17,230]

12 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

No offense, but I can only assume you’re being willfully obtuse here.

[Bullneck 19,073]

16 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

No offense, but I can only assume you’re being willfully obtuse here.

Can you be unwillfully obtuse?  I think that’s just being “dumb.”

[MissingInAction 25,015]

27 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

can you also call my wife and tell her there’s a free beyoncé concert that night in downtown burbank?

I'm your Huckleberry.

[NAVY 6,740]

4 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

 

Winning vibes.

… if you’re playing musical chairs 

[Baboontyme 2,809]

That's wild. Macomb loves them some Trump. They have a fucking parade for his ass a few miles north of Warren in Shelby Township every Sunday. Seriously. I don't even like driving through, it gives me the heebie-jeebies. 

[Js1 85,291]

1 minute ago, Baboontyme said:

That's wild. Macomb loves them some Trump. They have a fucking parade for his ass a few miles north of Warren in Shelby Township every Sunday. Seriously. I don't even like driving through, it gives me the heebie-jeebies. 

Macomb was about Trump +8. 

[atomheartbevo 89,629]

48 minutes ago, G650 said:

I'm not sure what a Tobias is, but there's a lot more of the people I'm referring to than Cleeti in this country.

Thank you for attempting to use the proper form of Cletus when referring to multiple numbers of them.

[Baboontyme 2,809]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Macomb was about Trump +8. 

My wife teaches in Macomb. 

I won't trash it too much because I think there are a couple of surly posters who seem like decent people that live there. But yeah. Lots of large pickup trucks. Lots of I seen. 

[pantone159 719]

1 hour ago, aggie08 said:

I don't understand why these numbers are different, even slightly.

There is always some chance that she would be elected, but die/become incapacitated before inauguration, even in the absence of fuckery. Also, the wins-election bet might pay sooner than becomes-president bet, so there would be a time value of money/interest value difference. So they might reasonably not be *exactly* the same.

 

[CTC2 2,791]

23 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Half this thread (if not more) voted for Bush, but I don’t think a single one would stand up for him now. Most have realized they were duped by their upbringing and environment (although some still cling to some silly notion of fiscal conservatism or libertarianism). 

I feel embarrassed that at the time, I thought if Bush, McCain, and Romney were elected, the world would end.  Little did I know what was coming. 
I long for the day that the Republicans were at least sane. 

[closetohumping 17,435]

[quigley 1,562]

18 minutes ago, G650 said:

He does from some. I spend my days with poor white dudes among others, they aren't universally, or even majority, Trumpy.

Upper middle suburban white dudes who like F250s, or have construction companies, or work in finance or plenty of other cross sections are like 99% Trump true believers and there are millions of them.

 

Hell I posted the dude with the Trump Train Fountain speedboat in here, that's like the median Trump acolyte.

 

How many of you guys know anyone that was at the J6 riot? I talk to one almost every day in a professional capacity. Owns a small excavation and grading company, been raking it in past few years. Literally 100% opposite of people who have been left behind supposedly in this economy.

I'm not doubting your experience. I don't know anyone who went to the J6 riot. And I agree that wealthy White folk without college degrees break for Trump bigly.

What I do know is that I grew up in rural OK, and went to a small school (65 in my senior class) where most kids didn't go to college (3 of 65). Pre-Trump, no political discussion was had. Post-Trump, there are flags flying all over.

So those are our experiences. Data says Trump wins 60% of working class White folk in 2016 and 2020. I anticipate he'll get a similar percentage this year.

That why I said "it's both."

[tx 3 putt 76,874]

johnson has just admitted trump is killing the CHIPS and Science act ….

 

[WhatTheBuck 28,775]

4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Seriously, does he think Liz has, I dunno, bone spurs or something?

Maybe he’s thinking about all the deferments her father got that kept him out of Vietnam and just got confused. 

[Francisco 2.0 32,389]

Edit.  Beaten to the punch.

Edited November 2 by Francisco 2.0

[Pancho 44,712]

 

[Red Five 40,846]

Good lord. By Monday night we'll be seeing "Trump accidentally reveals plan to give every American very advanced AIDS". 

[G650 14,244]

5 minutes ago, quigley said:

I'm not doubting your experience. I don't know anyone who went to the J6 riot. And I agree that wealthy White folk without college degrees break for Trump bigly.

What I do know is that I grew up in rural OK, and went to a small school (65 in my senior class) where most kids didn't go to college (3 of 65). Pre-Trump, no political discussion was had. Post-Trump, there are flags flying all over.

So those are our experiences. Data says Trump wins 60% of working class White folk in 2016 and 2020. I anticipate he'll get a similar percentage this year.

That why I said "it's both."

I'm certainly not saying the uneducated whites aren't breaking Trump, but what I see is people underestimating just how many middle class suburbanites exist.

 

At any rate, it's an interesting conversation but now its time for me to retire and read a bit before bed so I'll leave it here. I have full faith the night shift will have much for us to ponder in the morning.

[Pancho 44,712]

[HenryJames 66,038]

Spoiler

Today, in his always interesting Substack, Silver Bullet,

@NateSilver538

took time off from his Twitter spat with Bette Midler to write about me. Nate correctly noted the unreliability of early voting in predicting results, a lesson that anyone who has worked in campaigns has probably learned, often painfully. Nate was taking me to task for a tweet in which I pointed out that so far in early voting, 10% more women had voted than men, and the average in final results since 2004 has been a 4% gender gap. I did not mention party breakdown, but Nate used it as a straw man to attack those making assumptions about final partisan turnout based on early voting. He’s correct. Given many factors, including the oddity of a Covid 2020 election, it’s treacherous ground to use early voting to predict the final party breakdown of an electorate. But even the most crackpot of Republican sponsored polls show Harris winning women by a larger margin than she is losing men. If that holds and more women vote than men, the math does not seem complicated. I suspect that Nate has me in his sights because I Tweeted that he is working for Polymarket and that a Peter Thiel fund is Polymarket’s lead investor. This simple stating of previously reported facts seemed to set Nate off. He sent me a direct message on Twitter declaring, “You picked the wrong guy to fuck with,” which, I assume, given his apparent interest in cinema, was a line from one of his favorite gangster films. He then proceeded to threaten libel action. Over at the Lincoln Project, we routinely get death threats, mostly more humorous than troubling, and Donald Trump tried to get the DOJ to shut down the Lincoln Project, so I’m not sure he realized that the huffing and puffing about an imaginary libel suit might not have his desired chilling effect. I’ve always enjoyed the oddball characters that float around the political world, though it was more fun before they started running the Trump Republican party and, for four years, the country. It’s easy to imagine Rick Moranis playing Nate as the swashbuckling nerd who takes his mastery of spreadsheets to the poker tables of Vegas. I confess to having a prejudice in favor of political pundits and prognosticators who have worked in politics, but that’s as unfair an assumption as claiming only the opinions and analysis of those who have played a sport are valid. I’ve enjoyed Nate’s writings and found his first book, "The Signal and the Noise," well written and informative. He’s a good writer. In his recent Op-ed in the NYT about the dangers of relying on gut instincts to predict election outcomes, I thought his musings on his neighborhood in New York to have the observant qualities of good travel writing, a genre I admire so much that my first three books were travel books. The 2024 presidential race has been very stable since the VP became the nominee. Trump reliably clocks in around 47% and the difference in credible polling only reflects the percentage that the VP is receiving of the remaining 53%. When I look at the wildly fluctuating lines in Nate’s model of likely winner, it strikes me as amusingly silly, though perhaps that’s my lack of any interest in gambling. As to who should have received a 1991 Academy Award for Best Actress, I have no dog in that fight and will leave it to Nate and Bette Midler.

 

[Jive Turkey 12,594]

1 hour ago, aggie08 said:

So we're all going to our local Chili's on Wednesday in solidarity if the election goes our way, correct?

If I see any of you, I'll knowingly nod.

wife said tater tot casserole on Tuesday night, Chili's on Wednesday.

[TwiceHorn 31,440]

[HenryJames 66,038]

13 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Is it pronounced De Penis or Deep Anus?

[BamaATL 16,593]

5 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Bingo at the senior home has more heat.  

[Red Five 40,846]

I was thinking earlier that it might be a good idea to have my posting privileges suspended late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Because I guarantee you that Trump will declare victory, and will say something along the lines of "Wait until you see what happens on January 6th!". 

More importantly, AOC is looking shockingly rude on MSNBC right now.

Edited November 2 by Red Five

[chainsaw 9,859]

4 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

He sent me a direct message on Twitter declaring, “You picked the wrong guy to fuck with,” which, I assume, given his apparent interest in cinema, was a line from one of his favorite gangster films. He then proceeded to threaten libel action.

[Irwin F Fletcher 3,550]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Don’t listen to Trumpanzees.  They are being gaslighted every which way by Fox News and pumped full of disinformation on social media.

Listen to Donald Trump himself.  He will tell you everything you need to know.

His meltdowns on social media the past two days, his raging about how Liz Cheney should be shot, these are not the ramblings of a man who thinks he’s winning.

The media wants a horse race, not a blowout.  Everybody tunes out on a blowout.

I'm here for the Harris blowout. I'll tune in and pop the champagne!

[SizzleChest 8,283]

6 hours ago, Js1 said:

Yeah. Math isn’t my strong suit lol 

[quigley 1,562]

8 minutes ago, G650 said:

I'm certainly not saying the uneducated whites aren't breaking Trump, but what I see is people underestimating just how many middle class suburbanites exist.

 

At any rate, it's an interesting conversation but now its time for me to retire and read a bit before bed so I'll leave it here. I have full faith the night shift will have much for us to ponder in the morning.

It's okay to say "we agree."

[NAVY 6,740]

20 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

I’ve been laughing solidly for 2 minutes, so far