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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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The Dog

The Dog 42901

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17 minutes ago, mantis toboggan said:

Someone with more knowledge than me please tell me why Ohio will spilt Dem/repub for senate/president?  Is the repub senate candidate that bad?  Seems off. 

“Trump only” voters. It’s a thing.

Unrelated:

 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 25624

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2 hours ago, HenryJames said:
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Today, in his always interesting Substack, Silver Bullet,

@NateSilver538

took time off from his Twitter spat with Bette Midler to write about me. Nate correctly noted the unreliability of early voting in predicting results, a lesson that anyone who has worked in campaigns has probably learned, often painfully. Nate was taking me to task for a tweet in which I pointed out that so far in early voting, 10% more women had voted than men, and the average in final results since 2004 has been a 4% gender gap. I did not mention party breakdown, but Nate used it as a straw man to attack those making assumptions about final partisan turnout based on early voting. He’s correct. Given many factors, including the oddity of a Covid 2020 election, it’s treacherous ground to use early voting to predict the final party breakdown of an electorate. But even the most crackpot of Republican sponsored polls show Harris winning women by a larger margin than she is losing men. If that holds and more women vote than men, the math does not seem complicated. I suspect that Nate has me in his sights because I Tweeted that he is working for Polymarket and that a Peter Thiel fund is Polymarket’s lead investor. This simple stating of previously reported facts seemed to set Nate off. He sent me a direct message on Twitter declaring, “You picked the wrong guy to fuck with,” which, I assume, given his apparent interest in cinema, was a line from one of his favorite gangster films. He then proceeded to threaten libel action. Over at the Lincoln Project, we routinely get death threats, mostly more humorous than troubling, and Donald Trump tried to get the DOJ to shut down the Lincoln Project, so I’m not sure he realized that the huffing and puffing about an imaginary libel suit might not have his desired chilling effect. I’ve always enjoyed the oddball characters that float around the political world, though it was more fun before they started running the Trump Republican party and, for four years, the country. It’s easy to imagine Rick Moranis playing Nate as the swashbuckling nerd who takes his mastery of spreadsheets to the poker tables of Vegas. I confess to having a prejudice in favor of political pundits and prognosticators who have worked in politics, but that’s as unfair an assumption as claiming only the opinions and analysis of those who have played a sport are valid. I’ve enjoyed Nate’s writings and found his first book, "The Signal and the Noise," well written and informative. He’s a good writer. In his recent Op-ed in the NYT about the dangers of relying on gut instincts to predict election outcomes, I thought his musings on his neighborhood in New York to have the observant qualities of good travel writing, a genre I admire so much that my first three books were travel books. The 2024 presidential race has been very stable since the VP became the nominee. Trump reliably clocks in around 47% and the difference in credible polling only reflects the percentage that the VP is receiving of the remaining 53%. When I look at the wildly fluctuating lines in Nate’s model of likely winner, it strikes me as amusingly silly, though perhaps that’s my lack of any interest in gambling. As to who should have received a 1991 Academy Award for Best Actress, I have no dog in that fight and will leave it to Nate and Bette Midler.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Chopper said:

No offense but I can only assume your brain is fried from too much lsd or something else. 

image.png.37a10baaacba54dc488f912b6173dfc2.png

image.png.6659f71b7bd77336f33fc6fc0f54ab20.png

You seem very committed to missing the point. 

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wood

wood 10851

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2 hours ago, Horn Dog said:

 

Can we also get Tony Hinchcliffe booked as guest of honor for next tailgate?

Heh. He lives in Austin. Sure, why not? He'd probably bring his bro Rogan, too.

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F250

F250 28408

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16 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

I completely forgot to add maybe the biggest driver of their Republican support. Religion. The poor in Mexico have been extremely susceptible to religious, especially Catholic and protestant, nuttery brainwashing for centuries. They pass that garbage down to their children, but recently many in the 50 and under generations who have strived to become educated have realized the stupidity of it all. That said, the majority still remain brainwashed and still believe Republican garbage is somehow "more Christian". Sheer delusion. 

As much as I love the culture and enjoy visiting with her family I've had to make sure my 19 and 17 yr old daughters understand their grandma and grandpa, as well as other family members, are ignorant of truth and reality. But it was born out of poverty and no access to proper scientific education and that brainwashing is something very difficult to overcome. That's been a challenge for the last decade for sure. 

Your posts are bordering on insulting.

Personally, I think if you are a white dude opining on Mexicans you should just fuck your own face.

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Chopper

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

They will undo anything good Biden did and re-pass it as the DONALD J TRUMP CHIPS ACT THAT IS BETTER THAN BRANDON’s

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

This is the shit I don’t understand. Ignoring the inevitable Brisket post. Why would anyone want to repeal that act? There is no upside, even political or perception based, to gutting that act and costing jobs. Even billionaires are making bank off that act. So why would it even be a discussion?

I believe they view it as part of their planned trade war with China which is exacerbated by their lack of understanding of policy or details.

 

34 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

20241101_204746.jpg

Sadly I cannot possibly vote for Harris/Walz any harder.

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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 31704

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13 minutes ago, Pancho said:

So….

They really, seriously think they will be saved on Election Day because their underground messaging to male turnip supports is to vote on Election Day and not early vote.

They…seriously believe this?

 

 

 

 

 

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bolverk

bolverk 28940

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1 hour ago, Zonahorn said:

REAL

 

I realize this isn't how it works and shit.

But, if we take that poll as credible and spot-on (big reach), and if Texas were experiencing a similar swing (unlikely, demographics and all that jazz), this is the implied result for us:

image.png.1acb71c9bd834995437e92a38da88bd8.png

 

Stop laughing. This is my dose of copium for the night.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45125

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35 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

It's not that we don't believe you, it's that we just don't care. No, sorry, we are actually hoping it happens. 

I mean, I've already pretty much zeroed out my . . . nothing

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 74866

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1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Amazing that they feel comfortable writing that and dispensing it to the public.  Election integrity by preventing federal election monitors. 

 

texas maga gqp is confident in a low voter turnout, and/or very long waiting times on tues

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 25624

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2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Georgia EV - nearly 55% turnout already 

IMG_2963.thumb.png.6a22d1962e73f4d36f8266bb61966882.png

18-24 - nice 

Oooweee!

 

1 hour ago, Hermanator said:

Yep, starting tonight I'm carrying my .40 for at least a week. Usually leave it at home. 

I don’t carry generally but I’ll be wearing a shoulder holster and my Harris/Walz shirt for a few days 

56 minutes ago, mantis toboggan said:

Someone with more knowledge than me please tell me why Ohio will spilt Dem/repub for senate/president?  Is the repub senate candidate that bad?  Seems off. 

Because Sherrod Brown is the kind of Democrat that held the house for decades and has credibility with the middle class in a way that the rest of the Democratic Party doesn’t.

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cattail

cattail 111

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The dirty truth is a ton of Mexicans living in the US are very racist against blacks. Also, they're very prejudiced against other latinos coming into the US (whether legally or illegally) because they feel it will invalidate their standing here, or ruin their ability to improve their standing. 
My wife's parents moved here from Mexico in the 1970s. Her dad and several of his brothers were illegally here for a couple of decades before becoming citizens. Her extended family in DFW, about 100+ people strong, are a mix of a few college educated sane Harris supporters and a ton of shit show low educated, ignorant, goobers. 
Mostly they vote out of prejudice and fear while being completely ignorant of the dangers maga fascist authoritarianism presents to them regardless of their citizenship status. 

This is spot on. Some of the most anti black racist folks I’ve ever been around are Texas Hispanics. It was eye opening and shocking. The democrats aren’t living in reality when they think otherwise. A not small percentage of that demographic will NEVER vote for a black presidential candidate. Makes zero sense, but it is what it is.
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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 26899

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8 minutes ago, scottsins said:


I mean…you realize whose post you’re replying to, right? His twitter is so broken.m, there’s no coming back from it.

To be fair, the Kamala Wins handle is prone to running it back through if they're bored. They got me a little while ago. 

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Chopper

Chopper 16093

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1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

I saw that earlier but didn't share it because I couldn't source it.

Is there a link to the original story?

The French dude and polymarket: The Trump-Betting Whale Speaks Out: ‘I Have Absolutely No Political Agenda’
Self-described French trader says he bet more than $30 million on U.S. election after analyzing polls

https://archive.ph/zs5Q9

Frustrated George Costanza GIF

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Hermanator

Hermanator 6582

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25 minutes ago, F250 said:

Your posts are bordering on insulting.

Personally, I think if you are a white dude opining on Mexicans you should just fuck your own face.

You can feel however you want, but I've been married into the family and have lived in that culture far more than my own family's white culture for over 20 years. My daughters are half Mexican.  I've discussed all of this with my wife and members of her family many times over. 

I'm not apologizing for saying what I know to be the god damned truth. 

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BamaATL

BamaATL 15803

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2 minutes ago, cattail said:


This is spot on. Some of the most anti black racist folks I’ve ever been around are Texas Hispanics. It was eye opening and shocking. The democrats aren’t living in reality when they think otherwise. A not small percentage of that demographic will NEVER vote for a black presidential candidate. Makes zero sense, but it is what it is.

Well, some Republicans would never ever ever vote for a black woman, but here we sit.

I'm not a Texas Hispanic, but the point is, giving up on people isn't the way.  Even if we can't get to one generation, the next one may well be one election or two from being on the clock, and things change.  

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bolverk

bolverk 28940

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33 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

 

Listen to this woman. Her money shot:

Do we really trust this man with our economy? Our economy!

A man who cares only about making himself rich, and tax cuts for his billionaire friends. I don't even get a tax cut.

Today is your wallet. Tomorrow, he'll be conning you out of your healthcare rights. And that's a fact. I want you to hear that again. Today, he's hustling you with a "Oh, buy my sneakers." Tomorrow, it's going to be your healthcare rights. He's going to take it away from you. He's gonna snatch it.

Donald Trump talks about how he has a concept of a plan, but, America, the only concept of a plan he has is a plan to hustle you."

She's certainly not a policy analyst or a polished political speaker, but that woman gets it. I hope her fans are listening.

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 26899

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6 minutes ago, Chopper said:

The French dude and polymarket: The Trump-Betting Whale Speaks Out: ‘I Have Absolutely No Political Agenda’
Self-described French trader says he bet more than $30 million on U.S. election after analyzing polls

https://archive.ph/zs5Q9

Frustrated George Costanza GIF

Allsome

Trump whale exposes the limits of today’s prediction markets: Even though volumes have surged on Polymarket this year, it is still small enough for one wealthy, opinionated individual to push prices around with a multimillion-dollar bet.
Théo emailed the Journal after the publication of an Oct. 18 article about his wagers. To prove that he was behind the Polymarket wagers, the Journal asked him to place a bet on whether Taylor Swift would announce that she is pregnant in 2024—one of the many small, nonpolitical wagers available on the platform. Minutes later, Polymarket’s website showed that one of the four accounts, Theo4, had placed a small bet on Swift’s pregnancy. 
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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 30796

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6 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

Listen to this woman. Her money shot:

Do we really trust this man with our economy? Our economy!

A man who cares only about making himself rich, and tax cuts for his billionaire friends. I don't even get a tax cut.

Today is your wallet. Tomorrow, he'll be conning you out of your healthcare rights. And that's a fact. I want you to hear that again. Today, he's hustling you with a "Oh, buy my sneakers." Tomorrow, it's going to be your healthcare rights. He's going to take it away from you. He's gonna snatch it.

Donald Trump talks about how he has a concept of a plan, but, America, the only concept of a plan he has is a plan to hustle you."

She's certainly not a policy analyst or a polished political speaker, but that woman gets it. I hope her fans are listening.

Game recognize game.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 25624

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2 hours ago, Tuco said:

No, he's not.  You are doing what a lot of people do: you see a problem and you attribute the cause as something you see as deficient.  But, if there was really a cause and effect between these problems and that deficiency, if Trump was winning this voting block due to economic policy, nobody would be talking about "white working class"

Um, I’m not talking about the “white working class,” yall are.

Again, I’m saying: Democrats have not represented the interests of the middle and lower middle class effectively for 30 years. Over and over, when the interests of the lower middle-middle class  and the top decile came into conflict,  the Democratic leadership chose the latter. When they had the opportunity to protect or expand the tools available to the lower middle and middle to protect their own interests or build equity, they opted not to take them. With the rare exception of people like Sherrod Brown,  the Democratic Party mostly represents the cultural and social agenda of well educated knowledge workers in urban centers mixed with Clinton-era corporatism. To the extent that labor Democrats exist at all anymore, they are an anachronism. 
 

It seems silly to pretend otherwise. 

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Tuco

Tuco 5024

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It's not that we don't believe you, it's that we just don't care. No, sorry, we are actually hoping it happens. 

You know, might send a message to other billionaires that’s it is a bit risky to try to buy a Presidential Election.
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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9894

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Treasury Market continues to price in trump win and wicked inflation that comes with his economic policies.

Weak employment data today (deflationary) was unable to counter the greater risk of Trump inflation.  
 

IMG_1460.thumb.jpeg.813a5974cd84a296c3d7d6f29a7ae624.jpeg

Trump loves the poorly educated. 

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