2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Valmy77 12,817]

1 minute ago, South Austin said:

It’s less baffling when you understand that a large portion of those people are not Christians in any resemblance of Christ.

I mean there always is that. Evangelicals are not real Christians in some sense, at least not this 75% of them that seem to be in the Trump bubble.

But it is still bizarre and blows my mind. It would be one thing if they were holding their nose and voting for him because they just hate abortion that much...but no. They see him as some kind of divinely favored figure. Despite everything.

[Js1 83,679]

1 minute ago, quigley said:

It's true that we don't know any of the methods for Selzer's polling.

That said, she's seen a MASSIVE shift just this cycle:

- this summer: Trump ahead big when it was Trump-Biden

- August: Trump up 4

- October: Harris up 3

Rather than this election being won because of abortion only, I would contend that the deciding factor would be abortion plus candidate quality. Harris has run a great campaign and tacked to the center. Trump has set himself on fire in new and exciting ways and tacked to the right.

She talked about it on MSNBC and mentioned the from the ground up enthusiasm for Harris, considering neither campaign has been in Iowa. She mentions that Harris’ entrance gained her new voters and expanded the voting base, mostly from senior and middle aged women 

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13,485]

45 minutes ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

 

They can all pry the last bag of Cool Ranch Doritos from my cold dead hands

Still really funny to watch GOP all the sudden be 100% onboard with Michele Obama health initiatives for the totally wrong reason (Crazy ass RFK Jr)

First they came for those who woke up feeling the cheesiest, and I said nothing...

[David Dennison 17,804]

Economist gonna Economist:

 

[Js1 83,679]

Just now, David Dennison said:

Economist gonna Economist:

 

It’s like I’ve been transported back to Democrats saying that in 2020 about the final Selzer poll 

[Sawbonz 26,904]

35 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

amazing referance

Oh you mean an actual attempt at a truly random sample?

[TexasHooch 5,088]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Economist gonna Economist:

 

I saw that too, but didn't post because it's pay-walled.  Let's see it.

[Tonesky 856]

26 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Again, how fucking stupid is this guy? Does he really think Trump is going to let him ban any of this stuff?

Of course. Trump will do everything he can to perpetuate Obama policy. 

[Sawbonz 26,904]

37 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1852921202567688416.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I know of one rural hospital in Texas that is ending L&D after the first of the year. In rural Texas, OB and Gyn care is mostly Family Medicine physicians, and although no one is talking I wonder if the providers at this hospital are resigning their OB/GYN privileges 

[chainsaw 9,668]

7 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Economist gonna Economist:

 

[Dahobbs 17,254]

7 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Oh you mean an actual attempt at a truly random sample?

Exactly. All the weighing and assumptions are the reasons the polls have sucked. Trying to "fix" the sample just creates greater volatility.

[Js1 83,679]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

Exactly. All the weighing and assumptions are the reasons the polls have sucked. Trying to "fix" the sample just creates greater volatility.

Yep. She doesn’t make assumptions about the electorate. She gets the data, she publishes the data. 

[quigley 1,377]

17 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yeah, I’m calling bullshit. While that may be how they view themselves, and while that may be what they say out loud, their fucking voting record tells an entirely different story. Same as they bemoan immigration while they 100% fucking need it to survive. 
 

Farming is already heavily subsidized, and they cashed those fucking checks and voted for Trump and against policies in their own self interest. They are their voting record. 
 

You, me, and everyone else lose who’s sat on this thread and pointed out that people who vote for trump at this point have to be racists on some level…we don’t get to apply a different criteria to fucking farmers. They are how they vote. 

You bring up several important, but nuanced points.

I'm talking about the small farmers who I grew up with. I know they are racists. The n-word was not normalized, it was normal.

I know they cashed the checks. But 2 things: the checks weren't that big and it cuts against the way they view of themselves.

Industrial farming got the biggest bailout. We know that industrial farming provides the most product, and it gets a disproportionate amount of subsidy. Small farmers are more numerous, less overall productive, and get disproportionately less subsidy (data and reference below).

Plus, small farmer aren't comfortable on the public dole (even though they've been subsidized for decades--don't bring that up), for the same reason they feel comfortable using the n-word.

The discrepancy is between reality and self perception, which we all also acknowledge.

 

https://www.ewg.org/interactive-maps/2021-farm-subsidies-ballooned-under-trump/

For example, through the MFP in 2018 and 2019:

• The top 1 percent of recipients received 16 percent of payments, with an average total payment for both years of $524,298 per farm. The top 10 percent received 58 percent of payments, with an average total payment of $185,340.
• The bottom 80 percent of recipients received only 23 percent of payments – an average payment for both years of only $9,109 per recipient.

Edited Sunday at 03:06 PM by quigley

[David Dennison 17,804]

9 minutes ago, TexasHooch said:

I saw that too, but didn't post because it's pay-walled.  Let's see it.

https://archive.is

[quigley 1,377]

14 hours ago, Goofyboy said:

Does this translate to taking the House and keeping / improving in the Senate?? Harris needs both to really do work.

This is the REALLY big picture point of the Selzer poll. Watch NE Senate seat.

[Js1 83,679]

1 minute ago, quigley said:

This is the REALLY big picture point of the Selzer poll. Watch NE Senate seat.

I posted in the other thread that her down ballot races had Dems flipping IA01/03. IA-01 margin is skeptical (D+16) but the R is at 37% so there’s a lot of room for her to grow but the D was at 53%

[quigley 1,377]

9 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I know of one rural hospital in Texas that is ending L&D after the first of the year. In rural Texas, OB and Gyn care is mostly Family Medicine physicians, and although no one is talking I wonder if the providers at this hospital are resigning their OB/GYN privileges 

Yes they are. There are several published reports of this in many states. I don't know if I've seen this directly for Texas.

[Js1 83,679]

I’m certainly not going to go back to 2020 posts and find it, but I know for a fact I was a Selzer denialist. We all thought Biden was leading or close in Iowa and that poll dropped and I recall posting something to the effect of “outlier, whatever” and pretending it didn’t happen 

Not falling for that again. But will laugh at the GOP now picking apart a Selzer poll they loved in 2016 and 2020

[TexasHooch 5,088]

 

 

 

 

 

[G650 13,335]

1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

Playing to the whistle 

 

That was one of the things David Plouffe tweeted the other day. Its basically all GOTV from here and they are full speed.

[Superhero 8,636]

 

[quigley 1,377]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

I posted in the other thread that her down ballot races had Dems flipping IA01/03. IA-01 margin is skeptical (D+16) but the R is at 37% so there’s a lot of room for her to grow but the D was at 53%

We agree

24 minutes ago, Js1 said:

She talked about it on MSNBC and mentioned the from the ground up enthusiasm for Harris, considering neither campaign has been in Iowa. She mentions that Harris’ entrance gained her new voters and expanded the voting base, mostly from senior and middle aged women 

Did she talk about her methods and how they may differ from other pollsters?

[cactusflinthead 27,242]

Edited Sunday at 03:20 PM by cactusflinthead

[LCHorn 2,564]

28 minutes ago, quigley said:

If you know farmers, they HATE that shit.

Small farmers are independent people who WANT TO FARM. They're smart, self-sufficient problem solvers who don't like being told what to do.

And they don't want handouts.

I don’t want to be overly presumptuous about farmers in Iowa, none of whom I know and in a state I’ve never visited.  
 

That said, I grew up around SE Texas rice farmers (and after rice didn’t make money they cycled through sorghum, soybeans, even cotton and of course now everyone is growing corn) and they are just are plenty happy to take a handout.  I watched those families get bailed annually in the 80’s and that “bail-out” money wasn’t going to just food, it got spent in new trucks, boats, 4 wheelers and the like.  I wouldn’t get overly sanctimonious about their dislike of federal support when it’s meant for them.  
 

I’ll tell you something else you probably don’t know about those hard working, independent problem solvers.  Most of them aren’t farming anymore (too much work, too little profit) but they are still getting USDA money for leasing their fields to other farmers, sometimes just for leaving them fallow.  These are the same people, mind you, passing along emails later forwarded to me that claimed Obama was a Muslim jihadist back in 2005.  I’m sure that’s migrated to Facebook or other social networks, but I’m sure the rhetoric about Harris isn’t any less racist.  
 

 

[Francisco 2.0 32,224]

At this point, I'm convinced that he has no idea Fox is getting paid by the Harris campaign (or subsidiaries) to run the ads.

 

 

 

 

[G650 13,335]

1 hour ago, quigley said:

I mean, if Harris swings IA 14 percent ( -8 to +6), you're talking Obama 2008 and Dems in the Senate 52-48 and House like + 40.

That would be a true repudiation of Trump-ism.

@G650 and @Bozo_Casanova and I would be arguing about policy rather and working together to save democracy

From your lips to God's ears

[Js1 83,679]

This is why you can’t assume all the new voters this cycle who were eligible to but didn’t vote in 2020 are Trump voters. 

Edited Sunday at 03:22 PM by Js1

[G650 13,335]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

amazing referance

Beets, bears, Battlestar Galactica

[TexasHooch 5,088]

2 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

At this point, I'm convinced that he has no idea Fox is getting paid by the Harris campaign (or subsidiaries) to run the ads.

 

 

 

He knows, he just thinks that they shouldn't accept them.  As for this specific comment from him though, he makes it clear (must not have written it), that he's speaking to the actual shows playing the ads as part of the "news" programs.  As in "here's the ad, let's discuss".

[Gatorubet 29,789]

2 hours ago, quigley said:

There's a strong argument to be made that Harris/Walz left bushels on the field by not making a bigger deal about how Trump's tariff and trade policies in general will destabilize farm commodity prices.

I’d guess farmers already know that. They were there.  Whether that will be enough to change their lifetime of voting Republican is another matter.

[quigley 1,377]

1 minute ago, LCHorn said:

I don’t want to be overly presumptuous about farmers in Iowa, none of whom I know and in a state I’ve never visited.  
 

That said, I grew up around SE Texas rice farmers (and after rice didn’t make money they cycled through sorghum, soybeans, even cotton and of course now everyone is growing corn) and they are just are plenty happy to take a handout.  I watched those families get bailed annually in the 80’s and that “bail-out” money wasn’t going to just food, it got spent in new trucks, boats, 4 wheelers and the like.  I wouldn’t get overly sanctimonious about their dislike of federal support when it’s meant for them.  
 

I’ll tell you something else you probably don’t know about those hard working, independent problem solvers.  Most of them aren’t farming anymore (too much work, too little profit) but they are still getting USDA money for leasing their fields to other farmers, sometimes just for leaving them fallow.  These are the same people, mind you, passing along emails later forwarded to me that claimed Obama was a Muslim jihadist back in 2005.  I’m sure that’s migrated to Facebook or other social networks, but I’m sure the rhetoric about Harris isn’t any less racist. 

Agree. I grew up in Oklahoma, not Iowa and don't know one person who lives there.

Most farmers I know have second jobs. And the wife works off the farm too. The farm provides a lot of tax benefits too. And the 4-wheelers and boats are off the public dole.

The racism is baked in just like farming is part of their identity. I'm positing why there may be a shift.

[Dahobbs 17,254]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This is why you can’t assume all the new voters this cycle who were eligible to but didn’t vote in 2020 are Trump voters. 

I don't understand any reasoning that assumes there is a large population of Trump voters that sat out 2020 but will vote in 2024. Just a ridiculous assumption. 

[SydneyCarton 47,486]

21 minutes ago, quigley said:

You bring up several important, but nuanced points.

I'm talking about the small farmers who I grew up with. I know they are racists. The n-word was not normalized, it was normal.

I know they cashed the checks. But 2 things: the checks weren't that big and it cuts against the way they view of themselves.

Industrial farming got the biggest bailout. We know that industrial farming provides the most product, and it gets a disproportionate amount of subsidy. Small farmers are more numerous, less overall productive, and get disproportionately less subsidy (data and reference below).

Plus, small farmer aren't comfortable on the public dole (even though they've been subsidized for decades--don't bring that up), for the same reason they feel comfortable using the n-word.

The discrepancy is between reality and self perception, which we all also acknowledge.

 

https://www.ewg.org/interactive-maps/2021-farm-subsidies-ballooned-under-trump/

For example, through the MFP in 2018 and 2019:

• The top 1 percent of recipients received 16 percent of payments, with an average total payment for both years of $524,298 per farm. The top 10 percent received 58 percent of payments, with an average total payment of $185,340.
• The bottom 80 percent of recipients received only 23 percent of payments – an average payment for both years of only $9,109 per recipient.

“The checks werent that big” doesn’t really do anything to negate the point. They cashed them, they just didn’t like talking about it. 
 

nothing you’ve described illustrates smart, independent people. That’s how they view themselves. That isn’t reality. Smart people can recognize reality. Period. 
 

For reference, my father in law was a “rancher” in Texas. I’ve spent plenty of time in these communities as well. 

[Js1 83,679]

11 minutes ago, quigley said:

Did she talk about her methods and how they may differ from other pollsters?

From what I understand, she does  random digit dialing, plugs in the data and outputs the numbers. Theres no massaging the data, there’s no weighing for priors or assuming X group will turn out at a higher rate than Y group, etc. 

She just straight up says “this was my data, these are my numbers”

I also don’t believe she does recall vote, which has been overestimating Trump, according to Cohn  

Edited Sunday at 03:30 PM by Js1

[Underdog 28,231]

57 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Again, how fucking stupid is this guy? Does he really think Trump is going to let him ban any of this stuff?

Just let him try and ban HFCS ketchup. 

[Slacks 6,723]

2 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

Dads for Don do not think like this. Dad's who do think like this are already not voting for Don.

[Serak The Preparer 3,413]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I’ll you you my Cheez-Its when you pry them from my cold, dead hands…

Hmm, on a scale of zero to "the cheesiest", how would you say you woke up this morning?

[Red Five 40,455]

1 minute ago, Serak The Preparer said:

Hmm, on a scale of zero to "the cheesiest", how would you say you woke up this morning?

I woke up feeling the cheesiest coach! 

[Slacks 6,723]

2 hours ago, Post Oak said:

You have more faith in white women than I do. Unfortunately. 

[Gatorubet 29,789]

14 minutes ago, G650 said:

That was one of the things David Plouffe tweeted the other day. Its basically all GOTV from here and they are full speed.

You have to love the absence of GOP field offices, and the fact that people who are sitting at a Starbucks Wi-Fi making up calls grifted Elmo to the point he’s paying people not to knock on doors. 

[quigley 1,377]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

“The checks werent that big” doesn’t really do anything to negate the point. They cashed them, they just didn’t like talking about it. 
 

nothing you’ve described illustrates smart, independent people. That’s how they view themselves. That isn’t reality. Smart people can recognize reality. Period. 
 

For reference, my father in law was a “rancher” in Texas. I’ve spent plenty of time in these communities as well. 

I have to laugh at this. Isn't the whole conceit of this board that we're smart but come on here and learn that our world view as lacunae. Would we deny other people the same grace?

What does your father-in-law thing about the tariff-bailout cycle? Does he like it?

[chainsaw 9,668]

The thing Michael Steele was teasing, has that happened yet?

[Francisco 2.0 32,224]

Meanwhile:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited Sunday at 03:39 PM by Francisco 2.0

[Macanudo 12,798]

2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

The thing Michael Steele was teasing, has that happened yet?

Of course not.  He still needs to grift some more.

[SydneyCarton 47,486]

1 minute ago, quigley said:

I have to laugh at this. Isn't the whole conceit of this board that we're smart but come on here and learn that our world view as lacunae. Would we deny other people the same grace?

What does your father-in-law thing about the tariff-bailout cycle? Does he like it?

I dunno, do you think flat earthers deserve grace for their views?

well, he now has early onset dementia, so he doesn’t think much on the subject. And I don’t talk to him about politics or policy in general for all the obvious reasons. 

[Red Five 40,455]

1 minute ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Meanwhile:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well yeah, they've got to worry about you going around planting pipe bombs around DC again.

[Bateshorn 9,612]

23 minutes ago, G650 said:

That was one of the things David Plouffe tweeted the other day. Its basically all GOTV from here and they are full speed.

This is the only anecdotal story I have: 

A bunch of my wife’s colleagues are up in PA doing GOTV.  They ran out of walk and call sheets yesterday so they went to the bar.  They are actively turning away volunteers in the Philly suburbs because they don’t have anything for them to do.

[atomheartbevo 89,052]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

amazing referance

Wow, that’s a stunningly solid BSG reference.  I’m happily married and didn’t know I needed to find another wife but here we are.  
 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 18,508]

I have shared ancedotes on here about educated, white women with daughters in high school/college who are still voting for Trump becuase reasons. I am also not too sure about my fellow white women.

I think a lot of them are just shitty people if I am being honest. There is a dark part of me that hopes they feel the pain they are putting on other people. I am not proud of that feeling, but there it is.

[Macanudo 12,798]

1 minute ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I have shared ancedotes on here about educated, white women with daughters in high school/college who are still voting for Trump becuase reasons. I am also not too sure about my fellow white women.

I think a lot of them are just shitty people if I am being honest. There is a dark part of me that hopes they feel the pain they are putting on other people. I am not proud of that feeling, but there it is.

As a white male, I completely agree.  Except I am proud of the feeling.

I can be a bit of an asshole.