2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[South Austin 52504]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Texas and Florida?

Come on, man.

[Aqua Buddha 14596]

9 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Look, I'm not a fan of it in terms I wish none of this stuff would happen. But if they riot again the easy solution is to Ashli Babbitt someone much more quickly this time. Once that happened they figured shit out real fast. I'm pretty confident this will happen on January 6th, 2025 because they're already designating it a national security event. The question is if they'll react accordingly in other locations on other dates.

If you want to attempt a coup then you are risking your life. Make that clear, and make it clear very early on. That's how this is handled quickly.

Biden seems personally angry at these people and I suspect he'll give the order to shoot on sight if there's any fuckery.  

Good.

['stache 21815]

If dems get both the House and Senate along with the presidency can the federal government cut ties with Elon already? There is zero reason he should still be getting government funding after spending the last year shitting all over the country and trying to rig an election. That should be an automatic disqualifier. How about we actually run NASA again instead of handing it over to private billionaires?

[immamac 42850]

2 minutes ago, locodos said:

yeah but... https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/

Total Voted by Age

Reporting states with age data: CO, DE, GA, ID, IA, MI, NC, PA, VA

Age	Total Voted	Percent
TOTAL	17,944,336	100 %
18-25	1,475,740	8.2 %
26-40	3,001,468	16.7 %
41-65	7,018,201	39.1 %
Over 65	6,448,927	35.9 %

 

 

 

 

7 year vs 14 year group sizes and still in line with half of the next one? Wtf can no one think critically anymore. 

[Todd Gack 432]

26 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

My latest projection(hopeium)

 

 

texas blue...

[BurntOrange&White 39932]

1 minute ago, Todd Gack said:

texas blue...

Houston is coming through! Dallas continuing to evolve....it's happening! BELIEVE! HOPE! PRAY!

[bluto 4929]

Stop

[Js1 85337]

2 minutes ago, Chopper said:

If someone sees the reasoning for Harris' crisscrossing travel schedule today, please post it.

She's closing in PA (Allentown, Pittsburgh, Philly) and Walz is closing in Wisconsin and Michigan (La Crosse, Stevens Point, Milwaukee, Detroit)

Trump has the hectic schedule today: Raleigh, Reading, Pittsburgh, Grand Rapids
Vance has La Crosse, Flint, Atlanta, Newtown

The Harris campaign has the more focused schedule.  Trump/Vance are trying to hit every Midwest/east coast swing state, since Trump spent so much other time this past weekend in Virginia and New Mexico

[Hermanator 7050]

10 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Look, I'm not a fan of it in terms I wish none of this stuff would happen. But if they riot again the easy solution is to Ashli Babbitt someone much more quickly this time. Once that happened they figured shit out real fast. I'm pretty confident this will happen on January 6th, 2025 because they're already designating it a national security event. The question is if they'll react accordingly in other locations on other dates.

If you want to attempt a coup then you are risking your life. Make that clear, and make it clear very early on. That's how this is handled quickly.

Agreed. I'm actually more worried about the day the states certify individually, around mid December, as days where individual statehouses could get overrun. Going to need a well coordinated law enforcement effort to show enough force to keep the idiots from going full Darwin, or at least to send them to meet Darwin if they do. 

Also, Biden and his DOJ officials need to have a sit down with Mike Johnson and make very clear the consequences of dragging an insurrection this time will be far worse than last time. Show you're prepared for their bullshit. 

If they're scared to go that route the only other route is flooding the courts but, even with all those trump judges still floating around, I think that gets shut down. Especially if the rubes are restless and on the verge of lashing out. 

For all of individually in Texas, I recommend carrying everywhere you legally can just in case. My .40 hasn't left my side since Friday morning. 

[David Dennison 18860]

3 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Houston is coming through! Dallas continuing to evolve....it's happening! BELIEVE! HOPE! PRAY!

"I'll believe that when me shit turns purple and smells like rainbow sherbet."

Edited November 4 by David Dennison

[locodos 5387]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

7 year vs 14 year group sizes and still in line with half of the next one? Wtf can no one think critically anymore. 

Regardless of bucket breakdowns that distribution is HEAVILY skewed.

[ConferenceRoom 6141]

Maybe he'll die. 

[BurntOrange&White 39932]

doubt at your own peril cowards!

Edited November 4 by BurntOrange&White

[Js1 85337]

I enjoy Selzer trashing and throwing shade at Emerson this morning.  Said they're manipulating the data with their own assumptions about the electorate makeup in a way that helps Trump, instead of just taking the data at face value. 

I think she knows that these pollsters are getting more favorable numbers for Harris until they start messing with the numbers.  

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

18 minutes ago, immamac said:

What? There's a huge uptick in 18-29 nearly everywhere. 

2020 was historic in the youth vote, so comparison shouldn't be a surprise.  It's like saying barry bonds 2002 was definitely worse than his 2001.  But this is the tenor of stuff I feel like I see a lot of:

 

Quote

Over 211,000 voters ages 18-24 have voted so far in the 2024 election, but young voters aren’t turning out to vote in the same fashion they turned out four years ago.

While young voters often lean more liberal, they are also more difficult to get to the polls. Total turnout among young adults, which Democrats often target on account of the group’s left-of-center tendencies, is down by 45,000 voters from this point in the 2020 election cycle. 

https://www.carolinajournal.com/nc-young-voter-trends-show-higher-republican-turnout-dems-down-37k/

[Pancho 44803]

 

[Biff Tannen 45685]

Just now, Pancho said:

 

Sounds plausible, but would love an actual source on this other than "The Halfway Post".

[Js1 85337]

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

2020 was historic in the youth vote, so comparison shouldn't be a surprise.  It's like saying barry bonds 2002 was definitely worse than his 2001.  But this is the tenor of stuff I feel like I see a lot of:

 

https://www.carolinajournal.com/nc-young-voter-trends-show-higher-republican-turnout-dems-down-37k/

You're also looking at the full 2020 data and only partial 2024 data (just early, no E-Day voting) 

I beg so many of you, please worry about your post-mortems until late November.  Can we finish up through tomorrow, first? 

[C-Man 27227]

The Proud Boys Have Regrouped and Are Signaling Election Plans

Obligatory 'this is fine'

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/the-proud-boys-have-regrouped-and-are-signaling-election-plans-de7a1f45

 

Quote

Members of the Proud Boys, key instigators in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot, are mobilizing in support of Donald Trump—and in some cases, making threats about the presidential election.

While it isn’t clear what the far-right group is planning or how coordinated its plans are, many chapters are amplifying election-cheating claims made by Trump or his allies and discussing potential responses, according to a review by The Wall Street Journal of dozens of accounts on Telegram, the messaging app, and Trump’s Truth Social platform. Chapters have gathered across state lines, talked about watching polls and have been boasting about attending Trump rallies to protect the former president.

The online chatter comes as law-enforcement officials confront an unprecedented array of aggressors this election season: foreign operatives, homegrown extremists and lone wolves such as those accused of trying to assassinate Trump.

A courtroom sketch showing members of the Proud Boys in federal court last year facing charges tied to the Capitol riot. Photo: REUTERS

The digital activity appears to show the Proud Boys regrouping after the imprisonment of many members and top leaders—individuals that a bipartisan House panel called central orchestrators of the riot. Former national chairman Enrique Tarrio is serving 22 years for seditious conspiracy and other charges for trying to thwart the transfer of power from Trump to Joe Biden.

A Texas Proud Boys chapter’s Telegram account recently shared a post alleging a Democratic conspiracy to install Vice President Kamala Harris as president through “millions of fake ballots.”

Replied a commenter pictured with a Proud Boys flag in the background: “So we can shoot them then, right?”

A North Carolina Proud Boys chapter, which has formally endorsed Trump on Telegram, thanked its members who volunteered to “work the polls” in the primaries, calling it an “excellent trial run for the general election in November.” The chapter also talked about providing “security” for Trump at a September rally in Wilmington, N.C., and declared that Harris “will not win without a steal, which is exactly what they are planning to do.”

The North Phoenix Proud Boys posted a picture of a gun arsenal on Truth Social last month, declaring, “Proud Boys stocking up getting ready for Nov…It’s going to be biggley!!” An Ohio chapter warned on Telegram that “once Trump wins,” antifa will riot, adding, “Prepare accordingly.”

The Global Project Against Hate and Extremism, a nonprofit tracking hate speech and extremism, documented in a new report a 317% surge in “violent rhetoric related to election denialism” by various groups on Telegram during October. The organization cited posts that used alleged rigged elections to justify an “inevitable civil war” and a call to “Shoot to kill any illegal voters.”

Heidi Beirich, the organization’s co-founder, said groups like the Proud Boys are planning to do poll watching and have signaled they are prepared for violence.

In one discussion—viewed by the Journal—Proud Boys members suggested “keeping your rifle by your side.”  

In a written statement, Telegram said it “does not tolerate content that encourages disrupting legal democratic processes through violence or destruction of property.” The statement added, “Telegram is aware of rising tensions during election periods and is actively ramping up its human, AI and machine-learning moderation efforts to keep the platform safe for users. We are ready to cooperate with the authorities to remove criminal content.” 

The federal government is planning dramatically increased security for this Jan. 6 when Congress meets to certify election results. Law-enforcement officials say they don’t expect an attack of similar scale, in part because more than 1,500 rioters were charged. 

The U.S. Supreme Court is seen through a damaged entrance of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 7, 2021. Photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images

Yet the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Department of Homeland Security warned state and local officials in October that solo extremists or small groups, similarly galvanized by “election-related grievances,” could mobilize for violence between Election Day and at least the Jan. 20 inauguration.

In the Jan. 6, 2021, riot, the Proud Boys were “leading the on-the-ground efforts to storm the seat of government,” the U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia said in a written statement after Tarrio’s 2023 sentencing. “No organization put more boots on the ground.”

With their national leadership ranks thinned, the Proud Boys appear to have pivoted to localized operations. 

On Telegram, a North Carolina chapter said “a hard lesson was learned about having a national PB leadership structure after J6,” referring to the riot, and said that now, there are more than “100 individual chapters conducting local events yet still feeding their lessons learned to the club as a whole.”

The local chapters list “tenets,” such as “declare ‘the West is the best’” and “venerate the housewife.” 

Proud Boys members rallied in front of the Ohio State Capitol Building earlier this year. Photo: Zuma Press

The Proud Boys recently joined demonstrations in Springfield, Ohio, as top Republicans in September floated a debunked claim that Haitian migrants were eating pets. 

“The red hat army is coming back. From now til the election,” an Indiana Proud Boy chapter posted on Telegram in July with a photo of a MAGA cap.

A Telegram page for a chapter in Long Island, N.Y., boasted about members who it said attended a Trump rally in Michigan last month. “If they only knew we were backstage and all over,” the post states.

Another Proud Boy Telegram post said members from a half-dozen states converged on Trump’s Oct. 5 rally in Butler, Pa., the site of the July assassination attempt. Their post, accompanied by a photo slideshow, said members were there “to watch Trump’s back and to experience the momentous occasion with the good people of the MAGA movement.”

Julie Farnam, a former U.S. Capitol Police assistant director over intelligence, who is now a private investigator, cautions that decentralized chapters make the Proud Boys harder to track. 

Farnam said potential presidential pardons for Jan. 6 defendants is a factor driving their support for Trump. Trump has floated the idea of pardoning Jan. 6 rioters. On Telegram, some Proud boys post photos of themselves, claiming to be outside Trump rallies, with signs like, “free the J6 prisoners.”

“They will expect that Trump will pardon,” Farnam said. 

A Kentucky Proud Boys chapter said on Truth Social last month it was “standing back and standing by,” which it called a throwback to Trump’s use of that phrase to the Proud Boys during a 2020 presidential debate. The chapter promoted a Sunday Traveling Trump Train event in Lexington that it said was organized by Christian conservatives.

A Kentucky chapter member told the Journal his group doesn’t have plans to gather for the election, but said there is a possibility members will attend the inauguration if Trump wins—to celebrate and raise awareness of the Proud Boys imprisoned over the Capitol riot. 

Some Proud Boys also express support for Trump’s proposals, particularly immigration. 

A recent Telegram post by an Ohio Proud Boys group said: “1/20/25: Trump is sworn in as President. 1/21/25: Me and the Proud Boys begin the deportations.”

 

[Tonesky 935]

22 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

If you want to attempt a coup then you are risking your life. Make that clear, and make it clear very early on. That's how this is handled quickly.

 

12 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Biden seems personally angry at these people and I suspect he'll give the order to shoot on sight if there's any fuckery.  

Good.

And, thanks to SCOTUS gargling Trump's balls, with immunity! 

Edited November 4 by Tonesky

[BurntOrange&White 39932]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

Sounds plausible, but would love an actual source on this other than "The Halfway Post".

What if it came from "The All the Way Post"?

[CooterBrown 18012]

5 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

Agreed. I'm actually more worried about the day the states certify individually, around mid December, as days where individual statehouses could get overrun. Going to need a well coordinated law enforcement effort to show enough force to keep the idiots from going full Darwin, or at least to send them to meet Darwin if they do. 

Also, Biden and his DOJ officials need to have a sit down with Mike Johnson and make very clear the consequences of dragging an insurrection this time will be far worse than last time. Show you're prepared for their bullshit. 

If they're scared to go that route the only other route is flooding the courts but, even with all those trump judges still floating around, I think that gets shut down. Especially if the rubes are restless and on the verge of lashing out. 

For all of individually in Texas, I recommend carrying everywhere you legally can just in case. My .40 hasn't left my side since Friday morning. 

I still say Biden should resign in early December so Harris is the sitting President before the fuckery starts.  

[Pancho 44803]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

Sounds plausible, but would love an actual source on this other than "The Halfway Post".

Stop being a bitch

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Da Fino 2783]

So Chili's got rid of the orginal mozzarella sticks, the original chicken crispers, the ground peppercorn hamberder, the turkey sandwich, and the chocolate shake? Who has been in charge all these years? 

[Hermanator 7050]

19 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

The problem with a Civil War is I don't even know what exactly we would be fighting over.

In any case it would be short. Whomever the military sides with would win almost immediately.

It wouldn't be a civil war in the classic sense. America is far too large, diverse, and technically advanced for that. 

Think more along the lines of Ireland's "Troubles". Guerilla warfare, terrorist attacks, and attempted political assassination. 

Last time gutted idiot groups like proud boys and oath keepers, but much smaller groups like that could be lurking in the shadows keeping their heads down for now because they saw what happened last time. Then you have the lone wolf types looking to create mayhem that are harder to track if they aren't idiots on social media. 

I'm hopeful this isn't the case, but I'm also realistic. All of trump's rhetoric recently is violent and setting this up. Killing Liz Cheney, killing the media reporters, calling it rigged already, etc. 

[G650 14256]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I enjoy Selzer trashing and throwing shade at Emerson this morning.  Said they're manipulating the data with their own assumptions about the electorate makeup in a way that helps Trump, instead of just taking the data at face value. 

I think she knows that these pollsters are getting more favorable numbers for Harris until they start messing with the numbers.  

I've always thought her best observation was when she points out these pollster are always using the last election to make things fit instead of looking where things are going.

[BurntOrange&White 39932]

Just now, Da Fino said:

So Chili's got rid of the orginal mozzarella sticks, the original chicken crispers, the ground peppercorn hamberder, the turkey sandwich, and the chocolate shake? Who has been in charge all these years? 

The new mozzarella sticks are superior. I always thought the original chicken crispers were not very crisper. 

Who gives a shit about ground peppercorn hamberder, you got the 3 for me mother fucker!

[TheStoicPaisano 9922]

1 minute ago, CooterBrown said:

I still say Biden should resign in early December so Harris is the sitting President before the fuckery starts.  

 

[Js1 85337]

3 minutes ago, G650 said:

I've always thought her best observation was when she points out these pollster are always using the last election to make things fit instead of looking where things are going.

Yes, she has mentioned specifically she just asks "are you voting this year?" and doesn't really worry about if you voted in the last election, or last 2 elections, etc.

That's basically how she got Trump 2016 and Obama 2008 caucus results. 

Edit: 

Even Silver has called out Emerson for being the biggest herders in the industry. 

Edited November 4 by Js1

[Ellellelle 308]

seems to be low yute participation compared to 2020 so far.  expected, imo.  but do we want the kids to vote, given that the olds seem to be sliding left and the trump campaign strategy is basically to get rogan bros?

I spent two weeks practically begging a 25 year old college educated white male to vote. He insisted he couldn't choose between the two. Best I could get was him promising to vote down ballot. He's not a Rogan bro from what I can tell, some of the youth are just baffling.

[Blotto 23509]

18 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Minor point. But a "cuck" would know, that's the point of their fetish. The entire point of Cheung's attempt at an insult is negated, just like the disaster of a campaign he works for will be tomorrow. 

I guess you could argue that in public, but then you're just gonna be that guy in your neighborhood that is an expert in cuckoldry.

[Da Fino 2783]

1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

The new mozzarella sticks are superior. I always thought the original chicken crispers were not very crisper. 

Who gives a shit about ground peppercorn hamberder, you got the 3 for me mother fucker!

Fair. 

[MissingInAction 25076]

6 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Sounds plausible, but would love an actual source on this other than "The Halfway Post".

31 flavors Twitter is totally legit.

[softlynow 1814]

2 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

I still say Biden should resign in early December so Harris is the sitting President before the fuckery starts.  

If the Senate is going to be 51+ Dem on Jan. 6, sure. There won't be a VP if she's POTUS, so a 50/50 split or worse only invites more fuckery.

[South Austin 52504]

4 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

I still say Biden should resign in early December so Harris is the sitting President before the fuckery starts.  

Yep.  After all, Harris has said that an intruder in her home is getting shot.  I don't think she'd fuck around with another insurrection.

[Chopper 17235]

This is so true. He had fame and faux credibility from an NBC reality tv show and was well-positioned to take advantage.

https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/dumbest-republicans-ever

[Js1 85337]

Also yes, I am staying up for Dixville Notch's results tonight. 

[BamaATL 16593]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Trump campaign:

Low energy
Empty rallies
Rushing out memos and polls from junk pollsters to offset Selzer, or even fake polls (Ryan Fournier)
"Please vote or I'm in big trouble"
Relying on the lowest propensity voters (young men) to show up and save him
Already calling it rigged, Dems cheating, etc.
Already having campaign leaks shifting blame
Insiders in the GOP already blasting warning bells about women/senior women abandoning Trump
No ground game

Harris campaign:

Big (dick) energy
Packed rallies in swing states
No leaking, no backstabbing (yet)
Know they have the highest propensity voters banked already (older women, young women, college educated voters, black voters)
Pure confidence from the likes of Nancy Pelosi, David Plouffe, etc. 
No one sounding the warnings about lack of enthusiasm, ground game, etc. (no 2016 Debbie Dingell sounding the alarms)
Such a huge ground game, they've had to turn away people 

Counter Argument - Sushi

[Bozo_Casanova 26460]

21 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Minor point. But a "cuck" would know, that's the point of their fetish. The entire point of Cheung's attempt at an insult is negated, just like the disaster of a campaign he works for will be tomorrow. 

I feel certain Steven Cheung knows the cuck world pretty well. 

 

[immamac 42850]

13 minutes ago, locodos said:

Regardless of bucket breakdowns that distribution is HEAVILY skewed.

https://www.census.gov/popclock/data_tables.php?component=pyramid

[quigley 1563]

50 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

 

Selzer now leading the herd.

[Helobious 9453]

I’ve been reading a lot of G. Elliott Morris on Twitter, guy knows his data. Says Selzer is no better or worse than any other poll and that it’s still just noise at the end of the day. So I think a lot of people in this thread need to really tamper their expections just because Harris finally got one good poll result. He still has Trump as a favorite (not a guarantee) to win 

[Js1 85337]

1 minute ago, Helobious said:

Says Selzer is no better or worse than any other poll and that it’s still just noise at the end of the day.

Things said in October 2020 when she released her poll that went fully against the polling CW that Iowa was in play for Biden. 

(I also said that, and I was 100% wrong) 

Edited November 4 by Js1

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

Just now, Helobious said:

I’ve been reading a lot of G. Elliott Morris on Twitter, guy knows his data. Says Selzer is no better or worse than any other poll and that it’s still just noise at the end of the day. So I think a lot of people in this thread need to really tamper their expections just because Harris finally got one good poll result. He still has Trump as a favorite (not a guarantee) to win 

Phew.  I feel better.  Thanks Helobs…

[MissingInAction 25076]

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I feel certain Steven Cheung knows the cuck world pretty well. 

 

So do I, so do I. 

[BurntOrange&White 39932]

1 minute ago, Helobious said:

I’ve been reading a lot of G. Elliott Morris on Twitter, guy knows his data. Says Selzer is no better or worse than any other poll and that it’s still just noise at the end of the day. So I think a lot of people in this thread need to really tamper their expections just because Harris finally got one good poll result. He still has Trump as a favorite (not a guarantee) to win 

But you're also retarded and probably don't know exactly what you're reading.

[Valmy77 13226]

8 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

I still say Biden should resign in early December so Harris is the sitting President before the fuckery starts.  

Ironically this would be a bad idea. This is one of those few times the Vice President is important.

[softlynow 1814]

2 minutes ago, Ellellelle said:

36 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

seems to be low yute participation compared to 2020 so far.  expected, imo.  but do we want the kids to vote, given that the olds seem to be sliding left and the trump campaign strategy is basically to get rogan bros?

I spent two weeks practically begging a 25 year old college educated white male to vote. He insisted he couldn't choose between the two. Best I could get was him promising to vote down ballot. He's not a Rogan bro from what I can tell, some of the youth are just baffling.

Considering how fucked our culture has become, it's not that baffling. Among many other terrible turns we have taken, the normalization of Trumps antics, the tolerance of the emergence of head-shaking groups like incels and the prevalence of "making libs cry" as a theory of governance has to be quite confusing for young people.

[Chopper 17235]

5 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I guess you could argue that in public, but then you're just gonna be that guy in your neighborhood that is an expert in cuckoldry.

So your logic is that knowing what a nazi is makes me a nazi. Good one. 

[Chad Fuck 17681]

18 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

"I'll believe that when me shit turns purple and smells like rainbow sherbet."

Or..