2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Valmy77 13225]

2 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I’ve been reading a lot of G. Elliott Morris on Twitter, guy knows his data. Says Selzer is no better or worse than any other poll and that it’s still just noise at the end of the day. So I think a lot of people in this thread need to really tamper their expections just because Harris finally got one good poll result. He still has Trump as a favorite (not a guarantee) to win 

It is misrepresenting the situation to suggest we are only talking about one poll result and nothing else. 

[immamac 42833]

Where are the actual new voters coming from for trump? We've been over this. It isn't from women of any color. The campaign has made that extremely clear, he's self admittedly doing poorly with women and he's running against a woman. Someone explain to me how the fuck this makes any sense to anyone? 

['stache 21790]

She's gonna win bigly but do I really have to punish myself by eating at Chilis? Would it count if I just made myself a bland frozen burger patty at home with some frozen Best Choice french fries from Walmart?

[Js1 85260]

1 minute ago, Valmy77 said:

It is misrepresenting the situation to suggest we are only talking about one poll result and nothing else. 

Also the conversation if her poll was Trump +7 or better would be totally different, because it is more “in line” with that pollsters think the election will go 

Just now, 'stache said:

She's gonna win bigly but do I really have to punish myself by eating at Chilis? Would it count if I just made myself a bland frozen burger patty at home with some frozen Best Choice french fries from Walmart?

No, we do this in solidarity. 

[quigley 1556]

27 minutes ago, Chopper said:

If someone sees the reasoning for Harris' crisscrossing travel schedule today, please post it.

Miles obviously

[HenryJames 66034]

11 minutes ago, Ellellelle said:

45 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

seems to be low yute participation compared to 2020 so far.  expected, imo.  but do we want the kids to vote, given that the olds seem to be sliding left and the trump campaign strategy is basically to get rogan bros?

I spent two weeks practically begging a 25 year old college educated white male to vote. He insisted he couldn't choose between the two. Best I could get was him promising to vote down ballot. He's not a Rogan bro from what I can tell, some of the youth are just baffling.

Youth is wasted on the young.

[Goredho 17394]

3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

When Dotard starts in with his "Come to DC on January 6th and fight like hell!" stuff he should probably be arrested. 

He's not going to do that.  He'll just say the election is stolen, a few people around the country will take it upon themselves to vote from the rooftops towards their nearest federal building.  The federal government will provide the FO to their FA.  At that point, it gets very dangerous.  I mean, what if, at that point, a couple people that own social media platforms start saying that response by the federal government is the start of "christian/white genocide"?

I have a growing fear that the real goal being worked towards by some very influential people is to ensure an infuriating loss to millions.   So those angry and terrified voters act out with enough critical mass to serve as a black swan event to wreck Wall Street and the economy/dollar.

['stache 21790]

11 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Happy to see that Jade made it out of sex trafficking and sold her chili recipe to Chilis.

[Helobious 9456]

6 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

But you're also retarded and probably don't know exactly what you're reading.

 

[Red Five 40826]

 

[MissingInAction 25003]

2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

She's gonna win bigly but do I really have to punish myself by eating at Chilis? Would it count if I just made myself a bland frozen burger patty at home with some frozen Best Choice french fries from Walmart?

No. 

[locodos 5387]

3 minutes ago, immamac said:

https://www.census.gov/popclock/data_tables.php?component=pyramid

Yeah I get that the cohort is smaller.  The effect is made worse by systemically lower voter participation rates.   

[DigglerontheHoof 21169]

5 minutes ago, 'stache said:

She's gonna win bigly but do I really have to punish myself by eating at Chilis? Would it count if I just made myself a bland frozen burger patty at home with some frozen Best Choice french fries from Walmart?

[quigley 1556]

19 minutes ago, Da Fino said:

So Chili's got rid of the orginal mozzarella sticks, the original chicken crispers, the ground peppercorn hamberder, the turkey sandwich, and the chocolate shake? Who has been in charge all these years? 

When we own one, they're all coming back!!!

[immamac 42833]

3 minutes ago, locodos said:

Yeah I get that the cohort is smaller.  The effect is made worse by systemically lower voter participation rates.   

I'm telling you that the young vote is out and strong. You keep telling me it isn't and then posting data showing it is.

Young people are turning out

[BurntOrange&White 39930]

5 minutes ago, locodos said:

Yeah I get that the cohort is smaller.  The effect is made worse by systemically lower voter participation rates.   

I think the issue is your original post didn't make sense in terms of generations.

 

I'd consider Gen Z to be 18-29 right now, millenials to be 30-44, gen x to be 45-59, with 60-65 being some weird grey area, and 65+ being boomers. 

As years go on the boomers are dying and their massive vote is reducing. Where as GenZ and millenials represent the biggest block of voters for the next 30-40 years. Gen X is essentially fucked in terms of vote power.

Edited November 4 by BurntOrange&White

[locodos 5387]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

I'm telling you that the young vote is out and strong. You keep telling me it isn't and then posting data showing it is.

Young people are turning out

Hope you're right, we will know in a few days

[Mittens 8253]

30 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Trump has the hectic schedule today: Raleigh

 

[Chopper 17230]

"We rate pollsters based on how often they poll" is a warning to turn the other direction -- one of many 538 inadvertently provides -- and you ignore it at your peril. 

 

[nolongerU2horn 757]

I think we all know why

[otisdog 365]

36 minutes ago, Chopper said:

If someone sees the reasoning for Harris' crisscrossing travel schedule today, please post it.

There's an election tomorrow?

[Jive Turkey 12593]

2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Washington crossed the Delaware in the middle of winter at night for this nation and you can’t be bothered to cross the Potomac?  

"We fight for a new nation that will have chain restaurants, like Chili's."

"Chili's, sir? A restaurant that offers nothing but chili?"

"No, not really.  I mean, you can get a bowl of chili at Chili's , but it's mainly burgers, tacos, fajitas, and ribs. And Southwestern egg rolls."

"Egg rolls, sir? Rolls of dough filled with scrambled eggs?"

"Not quite.  These have chicken and beans and cheese and peppers crammed in a tortilla.  But this is why we must win this war!"

 

[Evil Bill Obrien 3256]

10 minutes ago, 'stache said:

She's gonna win bigly but do I really have to punish myself by eating at Chilis? Would it count if I just made myself a bland frozen burger patty at home with some frozen Best Choice french fries from Walmart?

My local favorite burger place will be identifying as a Chilis that night, can take it home and get to work watching Aubry Plaza being a lesbian witch on Disney+

[Clintonaldo 2572]

Stache isn’t a friend of the program and will he monitored from this point forward. 

[Dbeasy 15040]

17 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I’ve been reading a lot of G. Elliott Morris on Twitter, guy knows his data. Says Selzer is no better or worse than any other poll and that it’s still just noise at the end of the day. So I think a lot of people in this thread need to really tamper their expections just because Harris finally got one good poll result. He still has Trump as a favorite (not a guarantee) to win 

There is no bigger pro Harris data point on the planet than Helobious saying Trump will win. 

['stache 21790]

Just now, Evil Bill Obrien said:

My local favorite burger place will be identifying as a Chilis that night, can take it home and get to work watching Aubry Plaza being a lesbian witch on Disney+

Completed last week, well worth it, and I use "completed" in more ways than one, if you know what I mean . . . 

[The Original Greaser Bob 2819]

38 minutes ago, Chopper said:

If someone sees the reasoning for Harris' crisscrossing travel schedule today, please post it.

The aristocrats!

[wildcat09 29338]

18 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I’ve been reading a lot of G. Elliott Morris on Twitter, guy knows his data. Says Selzer is no better or worse than any other poll and that it’s still just noise at the end of the day. So I think a lot of people in this thread need to really tamper their expections just because Harris finally got one good poll result. He still has Trump as a favorite (not a guarantee) to win 

C'mon Helo, just tell us there's no way she can win Florida.

[HenryJames 66034]

5 minutes ago, immamac said:

Young people are turning out

[Clintonaldo 2572]

Chilis better send us a gift card. 

[fuggled 576]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Pennsylvania weekend firewall:

D-R: 409k

D-R + 70-30 indie split: 492k

One final drop tomorrow of the mail should get it to 500k? 

Not built to be, but I did see a poll over the weekend from UNH that had ME-02 48-44 Trump.  

What's the EV total at now?  You have a link to the data?

[Hermanator 7032]

6 minutes ago, immamac said:

Where are the actual new voters coming from for trump? We've been over this. It isn't from women of any color. The campaign has made that extremely clear, he's self admittedly doing poorly with women and he's running against a woman. Someone explain to me how the fuck this makes any sense to anyone? 

It doesn't. He's probably gained some minority men he didn't have last time, but he's also lost a lot of men he did have last time. 

These polls are almost all just people attributing whatever they believe will be true to any data set they get. It's the epitome of poisoning your data. Instead of just releasing what they are getting they start bastardizing the results to make it closely aligned to what they saw in 2020. Completely ignoring an insurrection, credit for the most unpopular supreme court fuckery of our lifetimes, being convicted of a multitude of felonies, indicted federally, and stealing classified info that still hasn't been returned (and probably sold to our enemies) have all occured by trump since the last vote of 2020 was cast. 

I imagine the data a lot of them are getting is showing Harris destroys him and they're uncomfortable with that because of 2016. 

12 minutes ago, 'stache said:

She's gonna win bigly but do I really have to punish myself by eating at Chilis? Would it count if I just made myself a bland frozen burger patty at home with some frozen Best Choice french fries from Walmart?

Just go sit at the bar, order some chips and salsa and a Presidente Margarita, and celebrate. Nobody says you have to eat their food. 

[BamaATL 16593]

Forget all the election betting as an indicator.

Brinker International Stock Price today is at $107.68, up $2.76 per share.  

 

Case closed.  

[purplepride95 6890]

10 minutes ago, Mittens said:

 

 

 

[chainsaw 9851]

3 minutes ago, purplepride95 said:

 

 

This has to be hugely deflating to the people who showed up, too

[quigley 1556]

32 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You're also looking at the full 2020 data and only partial 2024 data (just early, no E-Day voting) 

I beg so many of you, please worry about your post-mortems until late November.  Can we finish up through tomorrow, first? 

 

31 minutes ago, C-Man said:

The Proud Boys Have Regrouped and Are Signaling Election Plans

Obligatory 'this is fine'

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/the-proud-boys-have-regrouped-and-are-signaling-election-plans-de7a1f45

 

 

 

31 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

I still say Biden should resign in early December so Harris is the sitting President before the fuckery starts.  

 

30 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

It wouldn't be a civil war in the classic sense. America is far too large, diverse, and technically advanced for that.

Think more along the lines of Ireland's "Troubles". Guerilla warfare, terrorist attacks, and attempted political assassination. 

Last time gutted idiot groups like proud boys and oath keepers, but much smaller groups like that could be lurking in the shadows keeping their heads down for now because they saw what happened last time. Then you have the lone wolf types looking to create mayhem that are harder to track if they aren't idiots on social media. 

I'm hopeful this isn't the case, but I'm also realistic. All of trump's rhetoric recently is violent and setting this up. Killing Liz Cheney, killing the media reporters, calling it rigged already, etc. 

 

16 minutes ago, Goredho said:

So those angry and terrified voters act out with enough critical mass to serve as a black swan event to wreck Wall Street and the economy/dollar.

This isn't going to be Red Dawn. The Proud Boys and associated fucks fled DC after J6 last time. Trump didn't bail them out. They know that they don't have the big guns, the military does. And Biden controls the military.

Last time, DC did NOTHING to prepare for this shit even though it was obvious shit was going go down. We had an office 6 blocks from the WH. We'd never before or since closed for non-holiday/weather reasons. We closed J6 because we knew there would be trouble and that DC was unprepared.

DC is already prepping for this shit this time. If the fucks want shit, they're going to get it in the face. Think 49-0.

[immamac 42833]

1 minute ago, quigley said:

 

 

 

 

This isn't going to be Red Dawn. The Proud Boys and associated fucks fled DC after J6 last time. Trump didn't bail them out. They know that they don't have the big guns, the military does. And Biden controls the military.

Last time, DC did NOTHING to prepare for this shit even though it was obvious shit was going go down. We had an office 6 blocks from the WH. We'd never before or since closed for non-holiday/weather reasons. We closed J6 because we knew there would be trouble and that DC was unprepared.

DC is already prepping for this shit this time. If the fucks want shit, they're going to get it in the face. Think 49-0.

Insurrection is a bad idea. 

[Js1 85260]

1 minute ago, quigley said:

 

 

 

 

This isn't going to be Red Dawn. The Proud Boys and associated fucks fled DC after J6 last time. Trump didn't bail them out. They know that they don't have the big guns, the military does. And Biden controls the military.

Last time, DC did NOTHING to prepare for this shit even though it was obvious shit was going go down. We had an office 6 blocks from the WH. We'd never before or since closed for non-holiday/weather reasons. We closed J6 because we knew there would be trouble and that DC was unprepared.

DC is already prepping for this shit this time. If the fucks want shit, they're going to get it in the face. Think 49-0.

Yep. DC is already prepping. They fortified the WH/VP’s residence basically over the weekend. 

[Zonahorn 8079]

47 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You're also looking at the full 2020 data and only partial 2024 data (just early, no E-Day voting) 

I beg so many of you, please worry about your post-mortems until late November.  Can we finish up through tomorrow, first? 

This, party registration and early vote don’t mean shit.

[Clintonaldo 2572]

16 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Forget all the election betting as an indicator.

Brinker International Stock Price today is at $107.68, up $2.76 per share.  

 

Case closed.  

Explain this to me like I am stupid. 
 

 

spoiler alert 

[Al_4_ISU 12447]

30 minutes ago, Goredho said:

He's not going to do that.  He'll just say the election is stolen, a few people around the country will take it upon themselves to vote from the rooftops towards their nearest federal building.  The federal government will provide the FO to their FA.  At that point, it gets very dangerous.  I mean, what if, at that point, a couple people that own social media platforms start saying that response by the federal government is the start of "christian/white genocide"?

I have a growing fear that the real goal being worked towards by some very influential people is to ensure an infuriating loss to millions.   So those angry and terrified voters act out with enough critical mass to serve as a black swan event to wreck Wall Street and the economy/dollar.

I think you overestimate the resolve of the average MAGA.  They'll bitch and whine on social media, but you had about what?  1,000 psychos for Jan 6?  I think one of the biggest reasons we won't see a second civil war is because of how comfortable the average American is, regardless of political affiliation or election results.

Too many of these folks are nothing more than keyboard warriors.  Plus, as you can see evidence of all over the place, the MAGA movement is just running out of steam on many fronts.  I'm sure some idiots will try to do something, but there won't be anywhere near enough coordination or scale to create the Black Swan event you're fearing.  IMO.

[Js1 85260]

This is why you don’t outsource your ground game to Elon 

 

[Brisketexan 105047]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

Look, I'm not a fan of it in terms I wish none of this stuff would happen. But if they riot again the easy solution is to Ashli Babbitt someone much more quickly this time. Once that happened they figured shit out real fast. I'm pretty confident this will happen on January 6th, 2025 because they're already designating it a national security event. The question is if they'll react accordingly in other locations on other dates.

If you want to attempt a coup then you are risking your life. Make that clear, and make it clear very early on. That's how this is handled quickly.

This.  This is how it must be responded to, with no hesitation.  Babbitt 10 people at once, and it all ends.

53 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

Agreed. I'm actually more worried about the day the states certify individually, around mid December, as days where individual statehouses could get overrun. Going to need a well coordinated law enforcement effort to show enough force to keep the idiots from going full Darwin, or at least to send them to meet Darwin if they do. 

Also, Biden and his DOJ officials need to have a sit down with Mike Johnson and make very clear the consequences of dragging an insurrection this time will be far worse than last time. Show you're prepared for their bullshit. 

If they're scared to go that route the only other route is flooding the courts but, even with all those trump judges still floating around, I think that gets shut down. Especially if the rubes are restless and on the verge of lashing out. 

For all of individually in Texas, I recommend carrying everywhere you legally can just in case. My .40 hasn't left my side since Friday morning. 

Yep.  Gotta be willing to Babbitt people nationwide.  Show up intent on overthrowing the government and take violent action to do so?  Game over for you.

34 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Or..

 

Merle, and esp Rainbow Stew, will always get rep.

30 minutes ago, Goredho said:

He's not going to do that.  He'll just say the election is stolen, a few people around the country will take it upon themselves to vote from the rooftops towards their nearest federal building.  The federal government will provide the FO to their FA.  At that point, it gets very dangerous.  I mean, what if, at that point, a couple people that own social media platforms start saying that response by the federal government is the start of "christian/white genocide"?

I have a growing fear that the real goal being worked towards by some very influential people is to ensure an infuriating loss to millions.   So those angry and terrified voters act out with enough critical mass to serve as a black swan event to wreck Wall Street and the economy/dollar.

And this is definitely the high-end concern.  These fucking idiots truly don't realize that they are on track to wreck literally everything they claim to love.

[quigley 1556]

20 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

Just go sit at the bar, order some chips and salsa and a Presidente Margarita, and celebrate. Nobody says you have to eat their food. 

Fuck that. He should get dysentery like the rest of us. I've already started probiotics.

[MissingInAction 25003]

28 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Gen X is essentially fucked in terms of voting power.

[Goredho 17394]

11 minutes ago, quigley said:

 

 

 

 

This isn't going to be Red Dawn. The Proud Boys and associated fucks fled DC after J6 last time. Trump didn't bail them out. They know that they don't have the big guns, the military does. And Biden controls the military.

Last time, DC did NOTHING to prepare for this shit even though it was obvious shit was going go down. We had an office 6 blocks from the WH. We'd never before or since closed for non-holiday/weather reasons. We closed J6 because we knew there would be trouble and that DC was unprepared.

DC is already prepping for this shit this time. If the fucks want shit, they're going to get it in the face. Think 49-0.

 

4 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I think you overestimate the resolve of the average MAGA.  They'll bitch and whine on social media, but you had about what?  1,000 psychos for Jan 6?  I think one of the biggest reasons we won't see a second civil war is because of how comfortable the average American is, regardless of political affiliation or election results.

Too many of these folks are nothing more than keyboard warriors.  Plus, as you can see evidence of all over the place, the MAGA movement is just running out of steam on many fronts.  I'm sure some idiots will try to do something, but there won't be anywhere near enough coordination or scale to create the Black Swan event you're fearing.  IMO.

I hope you both are correct and that I am wrong as fuck or that if such an attempt is in the works, it fails miserably.

[quigley 1556]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This.  This is how it must be responded to, with no hesitation.  Babbitt 10 people at once, and it all ends.

Yep.  Gotta be willing to Babbitt people nationwide.  Show up intent on overthrowing the government and take violent action to do so?  Game over for you.

Merle, and esp Rainbow Stew, will always get rep.

And this is definitely the high-end concern.  These fucking idiots truly don't realize that they are on track to wreck literally everything they claim to love.

@Al_4_ISU is right. If the fucks want to die, a few will. Quickly.  There will not be mass turmoil this time.

This is what the FAFO emoji is for.

[Brisketexan 105047]

10 minutes ago, quigley said:

DC is already prepping for this shit this time. If the fucks want shit, they're going to get it in the face. Think 49-0.

['stache 21790]

There really is an enthusiasm gap this time around. I was in the very trumpy south suburbs this weekend and saw several Harris Walz signs and only one Trump. Granted on the east side I saw the whole trump flag with multiple signs cult shit at one house but that might be the only potential insurrectionist left in town. 

Edited November 4 by 'stache

[quigley 1556]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This is why you don’t outsource your ground game to Elon

We're counting our Chili's chickens too early. You were right in saying wait until tomorrow (or more likely Wednesday) and play through the whistle.