2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Macanudo 12798]

3 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

 

 

Chili's is the only fast casual restaurant to not see a post-covid contraction, and their efficiency and consistency in quality are primary factors

When your quality was already shit, it's pretty easy to be consistent.

[HenryJames 65567]

4 minutes ago, nolongerU2horn said:

If I'm at Bartlett's best believe I'm getting the flying chicken platter

Prime rib, imo.

[Francisco 2.0 32226]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-isnt-playing-to-win-the-election-hes-plotting-to-steal-it/

 

Quote

Team Trump know they have lost. They have known for a while. They are not playing to win. They’re playing to steal the election. 

During the past week alone, they have released as many fake polls—75 polls created not reflect public opinion but to serve a political purpose—as they have during the entire period since Kamala Harris became the Democratic candidate. 

 

 

Quote

These polls are not intended to have an effect on the outcome of the election. Rather, their purpose is to tee up Big Lie 2.0, Trump’s argument that he was ahead, the polls showed it and that any Harris victory has to be the result of cheating. 

While such polls are costly, estimates suggest that tens of millions have been spent on politically-biased purpose polls during the course of this campaign, and require an enormous amount of coordination, they are by no means the only part of the extensive effort by Trump, his campaign, the MAGA GOP and the enemy governments who are supporting their efforts to lay the groundwork for a massive series of challenges to the 2024 election results.

 

 

 

Quote

These challenges have included everything from Trump social media posts this past week suggesting that Pennsylvania election officials are rigging the election against him, to scores of lawsuits across the country seeking to get voters stripped from voting rolls (which will provide important fodder for future claims to delay certification)—or, as in the case of Georgia, to stop the state from processing ballots from drop boxes to the spread of disinformation about the elections (including fictitious stories created, peddled and promoted by Russian intelligence). 

 

Spoiler

Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg has designated the people behind the purpose polls as “red wave” pollsters because some of them were behind the misperception that Republicans would do far better than they did in the 2022 election. He asserts that such pollsters dropped 17 polls on Sunday alone and at least 75 during the past week. His estimate it is that something like 125 such polls have been circulated since August. 

He also counts “prediction markets” like Polymarket, funded by Trump supporters like Peter Thiel, as part of this overall effort to create a misperception about the state of the campaign and to “shape the election narrative for Trump.”

Political analyst Rachel Bitecofer tweeted on this phenomenon, “When Republicans lose on Tuesday they‘ll be shocked bc all the polls they paid for promised them they’d win. That‘s a feature, not a bug, you the ’flood the zone’ strategy Rs are using. They need people expect to win to get them to commit felonies for Trump.” 

Both the New York Times and The New Republic have reported on aspects of what the right is doing with these polls, but the implications and intent of the GOP initiative has gotten neither the attention nor traction they warrant. 

Rosenberg gets specific when he makes the case about these pollsters and the overall effort to pollute and distort the public’s perception of what is happening. 

For example, he observes, “TIPP, the pollster who has been doing a daily tracking poll and played a major role in tipping all the averages and forecasters to Trump has as its corporate slogan, “talent on loan from God”—Rush Limbaugh’s tag line.“ He also urges voters to “just look at their website—it is far right fever dream stuff.”

As for the emergence of Polymarket, he says, “This is a very serious issue. It is an off-shore crypto company funded by Thiel and has spent enormous sums of money spreading their pro-Trump betting market as a legit window into the election. They are a very bad new actor in all of this and what most people don’t realize is that not only is the company not American but despite the amount of publicity the market gets, no American can trade the presidential stuff on their platform legally.”

The authorities should be aware of such foreign actors, and the ties some of them—like Elon Musk—have to Vladimir Putin and the Russian government. There should be a similar awareness of the activity of Russian intelligence in the marketplace, and the fact that some of the work done for Trump by entities like Polymarket (or Twitter) may constitute illegally in-kind or foreign campaign contributions. When this election is over, if Trump’s efforts are rebuffed, major investigations by both the intelligence community and the Department of Justice are clearly called for.

Despite such corrupt initiatives and their origins, major polling averages that are used by mainstream media regularly, have incorporated the results from this partisan pollsters into the averages they tout daily. It is intellectually and methodologically dishonest and it is deeply misleading. Those who’ve sold the averages as gospel or even credible are guilty of the worst sort of journalistic malpractice.

The recent surge in this activity, of course, has not been enough to counter the reality that the momentum is with the Harris campaign. Independent polls (like the Iowa Selzer poll) are showing this. Turnout among groups that are seen to be trending pro-Harris—notably women—is also showing this. Currently, with over 75 million votes already cast, women represent eight percent more of the electorate than do men. 

That is among the hard data reasons that Republicans are already moving on to Plan B. Trump has prefaced every election effort with a face-saving argument that the polls are rigged against him. But as we saw since the election in 2020, Trump and his team have made their post-campaign strategies even more central to their efforts than has been the traditional business of running for president and seeking to win the support of voters the old-fashioned way.

In fact, the GOP plan, like Trump in 2021, views the will of the people as a distraction to be overcome. Knowing they can’t win on Election Day, they are seeking to win in the courts, with the aid of political leaders including those in the Congress, and, if necessary, as on Jan. 6, through acts of violence. They are desperate. They will do anything to win. And if that undoes democracy in America, that’s just fine as that has been their overall goal from the beginning.

 

[Dbeasy 14791]

47 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

I don't know. I think it is supposed to be showing they are under-polling women, except in Wisconsin.

But I am not smart enough to figure it out for sure.

My parents made me come.

 

48 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

 

Fuck my life

 

42 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Trump always has the weirdest collection of people behind him when they're trying to appeal to a certain demo.

 

40 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I'm guessing that weirdos are just the kind of people who are paid to attend a Trump rally.

Ive become convinced that several hundred attendees to his events, particularly those behind him, are paid to be there. I just can’t figure out how they’ve done it without it getting out that so many are paid. 

Edited 13 hours ago by Dbeasy

[threesheets 1650]

16 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Make sure the whole thing loaded.  Mine had 51,000 entries.

So I went back and did that. Weird- it stopped at exactly 5,000 on mine. 

[Clintonaldo 2539]

I’m sorry but did I just read that republicans think there isn’t a strong democratic turnout ? Wtf

[kevwun 15341]

They are desperate for good news and it's the only possible way to spin early voting numbers and demographics as being good for Trump.

Edited 13 hours ago by kevwun

[6th Street 6299]

No COVID, remove a bunch of ballot drop boxes, cut down the number of early voting locations and claim victory for early voting numbers. Advantage aggy

[heso 2613]

2 minutes ago, Clintonaldo said:

I’m sorry but did I just read that republicans think there isn’t a strong democratic turnout ? Wtf

They are comparing the early vote to the 2020 early vote and seeing that it is older, whiter, and more rural than 2020. They are ignoring the pandemic and that Trump told all of his supporters to wait until election day to vote in 2020 but this year has been telling them to vote early.

[C-Man 26757]

https://www.threads.net/@jasonisbell/post/DB9DFOooOVy?xmt=AQGzxAUxmhCYG4jWRYGMy6I3CiDF8rHHavCZCV0cSwyEzg

[Js1 83685]

3 minutes ago, heso said:

They are comparing the early vote to the 2020 early vote and seeing that it is older, whiter, and more rural than 2020. They are ignoring the pandemic and that Trump told all of his supporters to wait until election day to vote in 2020 but this year has been telling them to vote early.

They're falling into the opposite trap of Dems in 2022 - the early vote was much more Republican friendly, but Election Day was much more Dem friendly. 

Dems were freaking out headed into E-Day 2022. 

Edited 13 hours ago by Js1

[Francisco 2.0 32226]

 

 

 

[SydneyCarton 47486]

I finally got to the end of that Pete video from earlier and saw the results. 

Goddamnit bunch of motherfucking idiots. 

[C-Man 26757]

What a pathetic loser

[Dahobbs 17255]

Anecdote: I'm told my father-in-law, who twice before voted for Trump and who've I've had some heated conversations with in the past, is done with him. I don't think he'll vote for Harris, you know since liberals are still out for world domination, but will not vote for Trump. I have to believe his support peaked in 2020. I don't think he hits near the number of votes he did then. And I think Harris gets more than Biden. Let's make it happen. 

[Gatorubet 29791]

27 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

But we are here to help the Vietnamese, because inside every [Vietnamese person] there is a good American trying to get out.

The guy who cuts my hair is a post Vietnam war immigrant, and the only thing he has latched onto politically in the decades  he’s lived here is that the GOP is anti-communist and the Democrats are communist.    When asked about the GOP and Russia, he looked me right in the eye and said “Russia is no longer communist.”

His journey to the GOP took no more effort than calling Democrats the “C” word because they did not support the war in Vietnam. And like many Vietnamese, he is a stauch Catholic, and totally onboard the one issue abortion train.

[Valmy77 12817]

The Democrats started and escalated the Vietnam War and the Republicans pulled our forces out and did nothing while the North steamrolled the South.

[Firemans4Horn 17261]

7 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

 

 

[Red Five 40455]

4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Anecdote: I'm told my father-in-law, who twice before voted for Trump and who've I've had some heated conversations with in the past, is done with him. I don't think he'll vote for Harris, you know since liberals are still out for world domination, but will not vote for Trump. I have to believe his support peaked in 2020. I don't think he hits near the number of votes he did then. And I think Harris gets more than Biden. Let's make it happen. 

I don't know if there is a term for this but I was listening to Jason Bateman, of all people, talk about it this morning. People who will tell pollsters that they are voting for Trump, because they have in the past and they're certainly not voting for Harris. But they hate the fucker now and just won't vote. 

[Js1 83685]

Atlas is releasing ANOTHER batch of polls tonight. Literally can’t wait for them to be banned for obvious spamming. You cannot produce accurate results polling every single day, somehow 

[Underdog 28231]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

I want to leave election day thread to be exclusively for results and after they start rolling in. 

Set it for 5PM central tomorrow because that's when the first votes will start getting released if it happens earlier we will open it accordingly. 

It’s an election thread not HEB, Motherfucker! I want to speak to the mgr of this place. 

[Gatorubet 29791]

By “random”, I of course meant pre-selected…

[Pato del Muerto 52117]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Atlas is releasing ANOTHER batch of polls tonight. Literally can’t wait for them to be banned for obvious spamming. You cannot produce accurate results polling every single day, somehow 

Well yeah. Need to confirm that Trump was winning today, so that tomorrow’s results can’t be possible. 

[Aqua Buddha 14260]

 

[TexEx15 17349]

 

[orange dream 1227]

I know I'm wishcasting but...

I don't know any typical Democrats are who are so turned off by Harris that they would consider voting for Trump, but I know several typical Republicans (myself included) who are repulsed by Trump to the point of either not voting, or even voting for Harris.  Multiply that by thousands and let's see how things turn out.

Just my personal anecdote from N. Dallas burbs.

[chainsaw 9668]

59 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

3, x

2, 1

x:  The only Asian Nerd ever at a Trump Rally

x is probably an attaché

1

Spoiler

 

[Red Five 40455]

33 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

These polls are not intended to have an effect on the outcome of the election. Rather, their purpose is to tee up Big Lie 2.0, Trump’s argument that he was ahead, the polls showed it and that any Harris victory has to be the result of cheating. 

Hey dipshits, remember 2016? Guess that means you cheated to win, huh.

[bluto 4819]

Stick around a while red five

[Gatorubet 29791]

[TexEx15 17349]

 

[Dahobbs 17255]

7 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

 

It is fucking entertainment for these people. That's all it is. 

[Js1 83685]

Ralston predicts Harris 48.5 to 48.2

[Firemans4Horn 17261]

15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Atlas is releasing ANOTHER batch of polls tonight. Literally can’t wait for them to be banned for obvious spamming. You cannot produce accurate results polling every single day, somehow 

 

nothing like a Brazilian based pollster spamming shitty polls every day. I guess if the checks still cash. 

[Valmy77 12817]

What is the deal with the Squirrel thing?

[BearSchlong 8015]

The guy who cuts my hair is a post Vietnam war immigrant, and the only thing he has latched onto politically in the decades  he’s lived here is that the GOP is anti-communist and the Democrats are communist.    When asked about the GOP and Russia, he looked me right in the eye and said “Russia is no longer communist.”
His journey to the GOP took no more effort than calling Democrats the “C” word because they did not support the war in Vietnam. And like many Vietnamese, he is a stauch Catholic, and totally onboard the one issue abortion train.

Shouldn't you be in the spa getting a treatment, or on the Lido deck watching a twerk contest?

[Valmy77 12817]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Ralston predicts Harris 48.5 to 48.2

Damn. Tight as hell.

[Chopper 16696]

1 hour ago, G650 said:

So they are saying the female vote will be less?

The big takeaway is this year's NYT poll has no relation to the reality we've seen of an early voting surge of women. We don't know about how they model their "Likely Voters," but they are obviously looking backward at the overall gender profile of who voted in 2020, and then shaping their current polling results to fit a similar overall profile. 

Edited 12 hours ago by Chopper
wording

[TexEx15 17349]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Ralston predicts Harris 48.5 to 48.2

 

[Js1 83685]

Just now, Valmy77 said:

Damn. Tight as hell.

And has Rosen +5

Definitely tight as well, but he has maintained Rosen has more crossover appeal - she's well liked by indies and Republicans. 

[Gatorubet 29791]

Just now, Valmy77 said:

What is the deal with the Squirrel thing?

Their breath smells like musky acorns, and they never pick up a check. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13318]

I know Trump still has a small, passionate base but overall the energy levels of his supporters comes across as much lower than 2016 and 2020. The low energy crowd will still most likely vote for him but they seem to just want everything to be over.

[honolulu horn 6156]

4 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Look, I'm not a fan of it in terms I wish none of this stuff would happen. But if they riot again the easy solution is to Ashli Babbitt someone much more quickly this time. Once that happened they figured shit out real fast. I'm pretty confident this will happen on January 6th, 2025 because they're already designating it a national security event. The question is if they'll react accordingly in other locations on other dates.

If you want to attempt a coup then you are risking your life. Make that clear, and make it clear very early on. That's how this is handled quickly.

This thread moves too fast for me to reply within a normal time frame, so sorry if this already been covered. 
 

I think the military should mount a couple of massive machine gun turrets on the sides of the capitol, the White House, and the VP residence. And they should then put a few target practice dummies out there and absolutely unload on them. Spread that widely on social media. Insurrection mobilization neutralized. 
 

They should’ve fired early and often on all of those lowlifes as soon as they broke the first barricade on January 6. We should have no quarter and tolerance for insurrection. 

[HenryJames 65567]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Ralston predicts Harris 48.5 to 48.2

[BearSchlong 8015]

How is DJT up 12% today? Short squeeze?

[Js1 83685]

Just now, HenryJames said:

Also he spent the last 3 weeks doom posting for Dems and click farming just to pick Harris. 

SushiHorn in shambles.

[Chuckie Finster 22342]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I know Trump still has a small, passionate base but overall the energy levels of his supporters comes across as much lower than 2016 and 2020. The low energy crowd will still most likely vote for him but they seem to just want everything to be over.

My father, who has a "FJB" sticker on his garage beer fridge, muted every single political commercial - from either side - when I was at his house watching football this weekend.  I know he voted for Trump, but there is absolutely no excitement in that household about tomorrow night.

[Pato del Muerto 52117]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Ralston predicts Harris 48.5 to 48.2

In Nevada is that like 50 votes?

 

 

They going to take forever to count them again?

Edited 12 hours ago by Pato del Muerto

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3859]

I think the poll out of Kansas showing over 65-year-old voters with a 15 point preference for Harris - which aligns with what Queen Ann in Iowa found - is the single current statistic I’m most focused on.  

The women over 65 that got their rights in their lifetime aren’t going to let their daughters, granddaughters, and great granddaughters go back.

[Red Five 40455]

2 minutes ago, honolulu horn said:

They should’ve fired early and often on all of those lowlifes as soon as they broke the first barricade on January 6. We should have no quarter and tolerance for insurrection. 

Watching live when it first started, I was thinking "I can't believe I'm about to watch dozens of people get mowed down on live TV." Nope.