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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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Js1

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Atlas modeled a 77% (!!) white electorate in their national poll (Trump +1), which hasn’t been the case in 20 years lol 

2020 was 67% 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29189

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8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Atlas modeled a 77% (!!) white electorate in their national poll (Trump +1), which hasn’t been the case in 20 years lol 

2020 was 67% 

they obviously didn't like the result when they used 67% so they had to go all the way to 77% to get trump to +1.

what happened to just asking 1500 people in a certain state who they're voting for? if you do enough of these, the numbers work themselves out.

 

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jimmyjazz

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1 hour ago, CooterBrown said:

I don't even like Jason Isbell but fuck it, I like Jason Isbell.

I like that he's comfortable enough with his not-insubstantial wealth (soon cut in half) to tell the haters to fuck off.

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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7767

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1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

they obviously didn't like the result when they used 67% so they had to go all the way to 77% to get trump to +1.

what happened to just asking 1500 people in a certain state who they're voting for? if you do enough of these, the numbers work themselves out.

 

They don't like the results when they do that, either.

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jimmyjazz

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3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

what happened to just asking 1500 people in a certain state who they're voting for? if you do enough of these, the numbers work themselves out.

It's essentially the Selzer model in Iowa.  Perfect?  No.  Needs a little massaging to correct for small samples?  Yes.  Reasonably accurate?  Yes.

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Valmy77

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1 minute ago, Stilicho said:

Ah. A “Democratic consultant friend” who is totally cool with passing devastating on-the-ground canvassing news to the opposition for “top secret” publication. 
 

image.jpeg.c7d2a086054e0c5e27de62688919aec3.jpeg

The night before an election. "Hey I have some news that might devastate my party, but go ahead and spread it around the internet."

And Liberals have all given up on the Democrats and love Trump now...except liberal white women for some reason. 

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26385

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1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

What a weird thing to ask. Although given Trump's attempts to thwart democracy before, I guess it is a legitimate question. 

I meant how might it affect precious metal prices, but I didn't eat enough lead paint chips this morning.

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Stilicho

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3 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

The night before an election. "Hey I have some news that might devastate my party, but go ahead and spread it around the internet."

And Liberals have all given up on the Democrats and love Trump now...except liberal white women for some reason. 

Porta-Potty Girl meets Craps Milf in Urban Meyer’s hotel room. 

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WBT

WBT 20561

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56 minutes ago, Helobious said:

And he’s had Trump winning this thing the whole way. But don’t let the Chili’s delusion mob know that.

He's had it a coin toss the whole way.  He's also called out the pollsters for herding as a cya exercise.  He doesn't run any polls, only aggregates.

John King on CNN with a map preview right now.  Hopefully this means the vicious rumor that he's going to be sidelined tomorrow night is false.

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9857

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Just now, Js1 said:

Likely another update in the morning but not sure 

To be clear, we already breached the D/R firewall and are only 3k shy of the estimate for D/R/I (although that's a very elastic estimate to begin with)

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Js1

Js1 85277

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Just now, chainsaw said:

To be clear, we already breached the D/R firewall and are only 3k shy of the estimate for D/R/I (although that's a very elastic estimate to begin with)

Yes 

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immamac

immamac 42837

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1 hour ago, Brian Fantana said:

@Pancho the game day thread doesn't unlock until 6PM, idk if you intended that or not.

I did it. We want discussion post polls closing there. 

We will also have a much slower moving updates only from certain posters thread for big news similar to signing day. 

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