2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[speed817 19396]

5 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Cruise pic.  

not sure who she’s voting for

Should move on her like a bitch. Do whatever you want.....

[BamaATL 16593]

Just now, Js1 said:

I thought I was tired. Even Southwest would charge Plouffe for those bags under his eyes 

The whole campaign has been busting their ass.  Regardless of outcome, they deserve credit for all the hard work.  If there is to be an ugly post mortem, the ground

game won't be the issue.  I've been extremely impressed with them, and if when we win tomorrow, this may well help own the Senate and House.  

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19208]

1 hour ago, Surly Bevo said:

Yea wasn't he +15 in 2020?  

Think it was more like +9.

[Gap03 3308]

1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

The whole campaign has been busting their ass.  Regardless of outcome, they deserve credit for all the hard work.  If there is to be an ugly post mortem, the ground game won't be the issue.  I've been extremely impressed with them, and if when we win tomorrow, this may well help own the Senate and House.  

 

Tru dat.  If Kamala loses, it's just because America is a shithole country full of angry / stupid / greedy fucks.  I'm hopeful, but still not completely off the ledge.

[MissingInAction 25116]

24 minutes ago, immamac said:

 

Taking Luna to the vet at 11 just to stave off the liver poisoning.

[Jive Turkey 12622]

What a sad, pathetic existence.  She went from Fox News to NBC with her own daytime talk show (and $15-20M per year) to SiriusXM and having to lie about Trump’s “stamina” at a busted rally before he gets his ass kicked.

 

Edited November 5 by Jive Turkey

[bolverk 29694]

1 minute ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Think it was more like +9.

Trump beat Biden by 8.2 points in Iowa, so you're close.

[MaxHorn 325]

I just remembered that all DISD schools are closed tomorrow, so I have to take care of my 6-year-old autistic son all day. That's probably going to minimize my planned heavy drinking self-medication throughout the day. It's going to be a long day...

[The Dog 44066]

 

[Dbeasy 15073]

This thread has me in a glass case of emotion. 

[Gatorubet 30254]

3 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

The whole campaign has been busting their ass.  Regardless of outcome, they deserve credit for all the hard work.  If there is to be an ugly post mortem, the ground

if you had told me an hour after the Biden Trump debate that we’d be sitting here with Kamala the favorite in almost every battleground state the night before election day, I would’ve said you were high on your own supply.   No matter what happens, the campaign was run as well as you could run a campaign, the two candidates performed beyond expectation,  and the thing that we have no control over - how many crazy stupid hateful people love Trump - we have no control over.

Win or lose, they left it all on the field.  But I think she is going to win and we will have to sit through months and months of Trump’s  lies, bullshit, and occasional violence - until we slap down the last attempts to steal the election again….

…and I think sentencing is November 26

[BamaATL 16593]

2 minutes ago, MaxHorn said:

I just remembered that all DISD schools are closed tomorrow, so I have to take care of my 6-year-old autistic son all day. That's probably going to minimize my planned heavy drinking self-medication throughout the day. It's going to be a long day...

I don't know if you are in the path of rain or not, but I imagine it will be a good day to take your son to a park and enjoy the fresh air, have a good day, and not stew on it.  Just a thought anyway.  

[WhatTheBuck 28788]

1 hour ago, TexEx15 said:

 

Wait, Nicolle Wallace worked for Palin too? Ugh. I knew she worked for Dubya. That’s bad enough. But Palin? Wtf was wrong with her and how did she finally see the light?

I still love her but…damn. 

[BamaATL 16593]

2 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

if you had told me an hour after the Biden Trump debate that we’d be sitting here with Kamala the favorite in almost every battleground state the night before election day, I would’ve said you were high on your own supply.   No matter what happens, the campaign was run as well as you could run a campaign, the two candidates performed beyond expectation,  and the thing that we have no control over - how many crazy stupid hateful people love Trump - we have no control over.

Win or lose, they left it all on the field.  But I think she is going to win and we will have to sit through months and months of Trump’s  lies, bullshit, and occasional violence - until we slap down the last attempts to steal the election again….

…and I think sentencing is November 26

I'll be in Vegas on 26th, I wonder if the sportsbook will take wagers on sentencing.....

[TexEx15 17545]

And just to wrap it up…

 

[Js1 85439]

Well they better fucking show up and vote tomorrow (they will)

[quigley 1563]

5 minutes ago, MaxHorn said:

I just remembered that all DISD schools are closed tomorrow, so I have to take care of my 6-year-old autistic son all day. That's probably going to minimize my planned heavy drinking self-medication throughout the day. It's going to be a long day...

You could watch OU-Texas highlights. I recommend the vintages 1986, 87, 96, 2000, 01, 03, 11, 12, 20, 21, or 23.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Re: that dumb fake story from the dem insider— even in the made up story Kamala has almost clenched it.  It said she’s right in with 2 of the 3 blue wall states.  3 gets her to 270.
 

 They can’t even invent sad stories. 

[Js1 85439]

Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Re: that dumb fake story from the dem insider— even in the made up story Kamala has almost clenched it.  It said she’s right in with 2 of the 3 blue wall states.  3 gets her to 270.
 

 They can’t even invent sad stories. 

That’s bc they can’t do math 

[NAVY 6747]

35 minutes ago, immamac said:

 

Holy shit. That’s a mid-to-late 80s Black Angus restaurant/bar dance floor. I waited tables there as a teen. Hahhhahahaha 

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19208]

18 minutes ago, speed817 said:

Should move on her like a bitch. Do whatever you want.....

gator is a star.  she'll let him do it.

[F250 28788]

18 minutes ago, Slacks said:

I don't know what all this Chili's talk is about... but I do know about kicking it with the Grandmama and a few Cowboys at DGC, so this hits close to home.

 

What is all this Chili's talk about? My closest Chili's is now a Los Cucos... and I have two Applebee's gift cards I need to burn, so whut it dew?

I'm pretty sure someone here works for a marketing firm that has a contract with Chili's. Or the Chili's 3 for me compared to fast food prices discussion really took on a life of it's own.

[Js1 85439]

The man who accurately called 2022 Senate and 2023 SCOPA has spoken

 

[MaxHorn 325]

6 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I don't know if you are in the path of rain or not, but I imagine it will be a good day to take your son to a park and enjoy the fresh air, have a good day, and not stew on it.  Just a thought anyway.  

We are definitely driving out to Arlington for a visit to Forever Young records. It’s his happy place (and mine too!). That should take up a few hours.

[Fudge Nuggets 19208]

18 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

The whole campaign has been busting their ass.  Regardless of outcome, they deserve credit for all the hard work.  If there is to be an ugly post mortem, the ground

game won't be the issue.  I've been extremely impressed with them, and if when we win tomorrow, this may well help own the Senate and House.  

 

If there is an ugly post mortem, it's because the dotard is right and this is a shithole country full of shitheads.

[Hank_Hill 18890]

11 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

El oh el

[Fudge Nuggets 19208]

14 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Trump beat Biden by 8.2 points in Iowa, so you're close.

I threw out the worthless Stein / Jorgensen, etc votes because I like to commit fraud.

[BamaATL 16593]

1 minute ago, F250 said:

I'm pretty sure someone here works for a marketing firm that has a contract with Chili's. Or the Chili's 3 for me compared to fast food prices discussion really took on a life of it's own.

I was actually thinking earlier today that at some point, someone doing research at Chili's will do a Texas based websearch about mentions and stumble upon this thread with pure bewilderment.  For some reason that made me very happy.  

[Firemans4Horn 18112]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The man who accurately called 2022 Senate and 2023 SCOPA has spoken

 

for us that said Fuck Musk and deleted Twitter what do his other posts say?

[Sawbonz 27580]

If Trump loses GA and PA what is his path to 270?

[Firemans4Horn 18112]

Just now, Sawbonz said:

If Trump loses GA and PA what is his path to 270?

Tiffany Trump to swing enough voters in California

[Js1 85439]

1 minute ago, Sawbonz said:

If Trump loses GA and PA what is his path to 270?

Is that his cell block number?

[Gatorubet 30254]

4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

gator is a star.  she'll let him do it.

Everything about that dress says, “I’m sick of being a trophy wife in this damn family, and I want to pursue my long-time dream of being a stranger fossil fucker!!”

[WBT 20628]

1 hour ago, quigley said:

Trolls gonna troll. I'm NOT taking it "with a grain of salt" because it's total bullshit.

 

@WBT I and others here have trashed Nate Silver here for weeks.

Long story short: he don't know shit about fuck because he's putting BAD DATA into his models. Plus he works for Peter Thiel now.

If you know this and are still quoting him, sorry. Even if he's right (and I don't think he is), it's luck not skill this time.

I think it's quite pissible a lot of pollsters saw understating trump support for a 3rd straight election as an existential threat to their livelihoods and have overcorrected.  But that's not Silver’s fault 

[atomheartbevo 89735]

4 hours ago, DDD Dad said:

This thread is delivering.

Surly showing up at Chili’s on Wednesday.

[tx 3 putt 77126]

 

[Bullneck 19181]

 

 

[wood 11227]

45 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

IMHO he looked tired, but in that 'good kinda tired' very chill kinda way. Towards the end he said he thought they could win all 7 swing states.

Edited November 5 by wood

[Bozo_Casanova 26496]

4 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

If Trump loses GA and PA what is his path to 270?

He has to win AZ, Wis, Mich, and NC

[Gatorubet 30254]

2 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

If Trump loses GA and PA what is his path to 270?

“Look, I only need you to find me 357,487 votes….”

[Jive Turkey 12622]

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

He has to win AZ, Wis, Mich, and NC

[BamaATL 16593]

3 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Everything about that dress says, “I’m sick of being a trophy wife in this damn family, and I want to pursue my long-time dream of being a stranger fossil fucker!!”

I don't know about you, but I've been told no a lot in my life, but that doesn't dissuade me.  Now comb your hair over and shoot your shot.  

[immamac 42870]

12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The man who accurately called 2022 Senate and 2023 SCOPA has spoken

 

🦅 Pennsylvania - Final Thoughts It's been a long election cycle with ups and downs, but my gut feelings + data are about the same as they were in August. I think VP Harris is favored to win PA by 2 pts, give or take 1 while Senator Casey wins by 4-5. Let's break down why. ⬇️

There are limitations to how much more Trump can squeeze out of those rural areas without cracking their small urban centers - IE, State College while facing off against high turnout overall. Some data points for this include the WA primary, Selzer, the PA district polls, etc.

Concurrently, the suburbs (SEPA and co.) are highly likely to shift left again. They've done so unbrokenly in every cycle since '16 and absent decent racedep, how do you counter additional raw volume from, say, Montgomery? You look to rurals, which I think stay somewhat static.

Relatedly, the herculean effort on the part of PA Dems to keep margins in those areas down add up statewide. The ground game comparison is not close. If Trump wins, it's going to be because nothing on an organizational level had an effect - incumbent govt struggles post-COVID.

However, we do have data that points to late breakers going hard for Harris as well as her holding up weirdly well with seniors and good margins with women. Subsequently, Trump's ability to surge turnout from his base isn't going to make this thing a blowout, IMO.

Fundamentally, nearly everything suggests Harris is favored except for some polling, most of which has been breaking for her in the home stretch. You can't just run scared of assuming that polls miss for Trump again without evaluating the context of why.

Many of them have made great strides to not underestimate the GOP - modified LV screens, '20 recall, nuking Philly (lol), etc. to the point where I feel it's more likely they've slightly overcorrected. Way too many ties too before this week.

Congressionally, I expect Casey to outrun Harris by a point or two while McCormick underruns Trump by a similar amount, partially due to there being multiple right-wing 3rd parties on the ballot, hence the delta. And it's Bob Casey. I'd be surprised if he loses.

For House races, I think Wild in PA-07 and Deluzio in -17 will be fine. Fitzpatrick survives and Cartwright in -08 probably has enough juice to pull it off again, but we'll see. Perry likely barely survives, but if Harris wins and by more than expected, he'll have a problem.

The row offices are more contingent on how the top of the ticket does. DePasquale for AG is in a good spot while Treasurer and Auditor are contingent on a big enough win margin upward.

For state leg, Dems are slightly favored to keep the House, but there are a handful of marginal seats. Still, in an environment expected to be better than '22, it's likelier than not that they can hang on. State Senate leans GOP absent Laughlin in SD-49 crashing and burning.

And that's my read on things, as far as tomorrow is concerned. Who knows? I could be horribly wrong about the state of things. Happy to be and probably will be the longer I cover PA elections. But I trust my gut and what I see - it served me well in '22 and '23.

And frankly, if I could at least go 1 for 2 for the POTUS/PA SEN races, I'd be ecstatic. I've done the best I can; it's up to the voters and both campaigns now. Wish I may to be a perfect oracle, but I'm not J. Ann Selzer. Get some sleep. Long day tomorrow

[cactusflinthead 27601]

15 minutes ago, MaxHorn said:

We are definitely driving out to Arlington for a visit to Forever Young records. It’s his happy place (and mine too!). That should take up a few hours.

Ever taken him to Josey Records? 

[Sawbonz 27580]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

“Holding up weirdly well with seniors”

Seriously? Are these guys completely blind to the republican rhetoric in this race? Or do they think voters pay zero attention to it and expect them to do what they did 4 years ago? 
 

Just ridiculous 

[quigley 1563]

13 minutes ago, WBT said:

I think it's quite pissible a lot of pollsters saw understating trump support for a 3rd straight election as an existential threat to their livelihoods and have overcorrected.  But that's not Silver’s fault 

It's not his fault, but it'll fuck up his model

Plus he's an asshole who's working for an asshole who's got a significant skate stake in GOP win, so fuck him

Edited November 5 by quigley

[kevwun 15806]

That reads like a blowout and not a +2. 

[Aqua Buddha 14598]

32 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

What a sad, pathetic existence.  She went from Fox News to NBC with her own daytime talk show (and $15-20M per year) to SiriusXM and having to lie about Trump’s “stamina” at a busted rally before he gets his ass kicked.

 

She went from one of the instigators of Me Too to this.

[Dahobbs 17625]

1 minute ago, Sawbonz said:

“Holding up weirdly well with seniors”

Seriously? Are these guys completely blind to the republican rhetoric in this race? Or do they think voters pay zero attention to it and expect them to do what they did 4 years ago? 
 

Just ridiculous 

That's exactly what they expect. That's how their models let them "correct" for low response rates. It's all bullshit. 

[Firemans4Horn 18112]

Just now, quigley said:

It's not his fault, but it'll fuck up his model

Plus he's an asshole who's working for an asshole who's got a significant steak in GOP win, so fuck him