2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Firemans4Horn 17,261]

page 1100. I’m going to bed. 
 

 

 

[quigley 1,377]

4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Confession: I don’t believe in internal polls.  They don’t have any more knowledge than we do. And there is plenty of incentive to make quality polls for public consumption.  

I going to try to see what, if anything, distinguishes internal and public polling when I have the chance. I will report back.

[Brisketexan 103,657]

Problem is, we don't ever see the internal ones to actually see even post mortem how accurate they are.  There is likely some truth to the idea that they miss on things as much as anyone else, but I'm betting they are pretty good.  

The problem is that polling is all over the fucking map. Sure, Poll X is repub biased, but so is Poll Y, and it was pretty accurate in 2020, and Poll Z was pretty accurate in 2022, but its cross tabs look off, etc etc.
We have no idea what’s going to happen.
So why not expect the worst?

[bolverk 29,105]

3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Confession: I don’t believe in internal polls.  They don’t have any more knowledge than we do. And there is plenty of incentive to make quality polls for public consumption.  

Several months ago, someone with much more insight than me described public polls as providing the overall shape of the election. What internal polls apparently do is hone in on key geographic or demographic indicators in greater detail, helping campaigns understand the voting behavior of very specific groups that they feel are of particular significance.

[Biff Tannen 45,228]

5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Confession: I don’t believe in internal polls.  They don’t have any more knowledge than we do. And there is plenty of incentive to make quality polls for public consumption.  

Counterpoint: there is more incentive to make shit polls that keep people engaged and clicking, thinking it’s a horse race that is going to come down to the wire. 

[mdmost 42,501]

I just wish this beauty was still around for my Wednesday meal. The OG location on Greenville. 

[Bateshorn 9,612]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

The problem is that polling is all over the fucking map. Sure, Poll X is repub biased, but so is Poll Y, and it was pretty accurate in 2020, and Poll Z was pretty accurate in 2022, but its cross tabs look off, etc etc.
We have no idea what’s going to happen.
So why not expect the worst?

 

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

Several months ago, someone with much more insight than me described public polls as providing the overall shape of the election. What internal polls apparently do is hone in on key geographic or demographic indicators in greater detail, helping campaigns understand the voting behavior of very specific groups that they feel are of particular significance.

We don’t know shit about fuck.  
 

nice work today, gentlemen. I’ll see you in the AM. 

[Stilicho 1,394]

12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Right wing has been spamming social media to freak out Dems and hopefully convince them not to show up tomorrow 

Yeah. It’s getting uglier out there, even on Reddit, more than it has over the last few days. 

I can’t imagine what Leon’s Nazi-Chan looks like right now. 

[Surly Bevo 24,609]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

Counterpoint: there is more incentive to make shit polls that keep people engaged and clicking, thinking it’s a horse race that is going to come down to the wire. 

Yes. Hence, very few polls are done in states not perceived as horse races. If you come out with a couple of polls in a "battleground state" that show x candidate up 6% over y candidate from September on, nobody is interested in your polls anymore as it isn't proving to be much of a battleground.  

[BevoAbyss 1,974]

If Kamala wins, I sure as hell ain't partying at lame ass Chili's. I imagine Brinker Corp is run by a bunch of Trump-loving MBA pricks. Probably lots of SMU grads.

Win or lose, I am going to an immigrant-owned Mexican restaurant and chow on some great food, washed down with tequila.

 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by BevoAbyss

[BamaATL 16,289]

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

Several months ago, someone with much more insight than me described public polls as providing the overall shape of the election. What internal polls apparently do is hone in on key geographic or demographic indicators in greater detail, helping campaigns understand the voting behavior of very specific groups that they feel are of particular significance.

The other aspect is that media, and parties themselves are well aware that the public are suckers for polls on anything, and seldom if ever does anyone actually look into things like methodology, who's doing the poll, who paid for it, etc.  "We polled 3 people in the Utah desert about the CHIPS Act, and the results were shocking!"

[F250 28,544]

13 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

My daughter told me some poor kid's dad picked him up in a Cybertruck from school last Friday.

She described his walk to the CT looking like this scene from the Sandlot. Kid's in middle school are horrible, why would someone show up in a Cybertruck to pick up their kid?

[BamaATL 16,289]

1 minute ago, F250 said:

My daughter told me some poor kid's dad picked him up in a Cybertruck from school last Friday.

She described his walk to the CT looking like this scene from the Sandlot. Kid's in middle school are horrible, why would someone show up in a Cybertruck to pick up their kid?

Well, I've heard that a lot of middle aged men make poor decisions in a vain attempt to hold on to youth.  

 

But I've only heard about that.  

[elfenix 34,129]

a little bit more than 5 days after hitting 1000 (5:56 pm last wednesday) and we're at 1100

[bolverk 29,105]

1 minute ago, F250 said:

My daughter told me some poor kid's dad picked him up in a Cybertruck from school last Friday.

She described his walk to the CT looking like this scene from the Sandlot. Kid's in middle school are horrible, why would someone show up in a Cybertruck to pick up their kid?

Dad was probably a dork who got picked on in middle school. And because he remains a dork, the dad doesn't realize middle school kids will still pick on him (and his poor, poor progeny). 

[Dahobbs 17,255]

3 minutes ago, F250 said:

My daughter told me some poor kid's dad picked him up in a Cybertruck from school last Friday.

She described his walk to the CT looking like this scene from the Sandlot. Kid's in middle school are horrible, why would someone show up in a Cybertruck to pick up their kid?

My 8-year old loves the Cybertruck and thinks it is the coolest vehicle ever. 

[MissingInAction 24,432]

It's pouring rain in Austin.

I shall interpret this as a sign of good fortune from the gods.

 

Edited 4 hours ago by MissingInAction

[Baboontyme 2,772]

5 minutes ago, BevoAbyss said:

If Kamala wins, I sure as hell ain't partying at lame ass Chili's. I imagine Brinker Corp is run by a bunch of Trump-loving MBA pricks. Probably lots of SMU grads.

Win or lose, I am going to an immigrant-owned Mexican restaurant and chow on some great food, washed down with tequila.

 

 

[wood 10,966]

In on page eleventy hundred.

[miguelito 11,116]

Re: internal poles.

PM South Austin's mom.

[The Original Greaser Bob 2,736]

10 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I just wish this beauty was still around for my Wednesday meal. The OG location on Greenville. 

This is where my wife introduced me to her Hockaday friends.  They terrified me.

[F250 28,544]

1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

Well, I've heard that a lot of middle aged men make poor decisions in a vain attempt to hold on to youth.  

 

But I've only heard about that.  

Well, show up driving a Lamborghini Aventador not a Cybertruck.

[BamaATL 16,289]

So the big question now is, if the Dixville Notch results come back with a Harris win, does she call a presser and just declare victory?  It'd be nice to just wrap this thing up.  

[BurntOrange&White 38,890]

So when will results actually start being posted? I know it’s likely dependent on state but am I going to be at work watching a livestream from 7am until the next day?

[henrygandorf 28,916]

 

[Irwin F Fletcher 3,549]

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

I just got texted that Rogan endorsed the dotard. 

Fuck!!!!!! I've already voted for Harris and I've never listened to a minute of this cucks podcast FML

[BamaATL 16,289]

Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

So when will results actually start being posted? I know it’s likely dependent on state but am I going to be at work watching a livestream from 7am until the next day?

about 45 minutes from now.  

[NAVY 6,709]

16 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The problem is that polling is all over the fucking map. Sure, Poll X is repub biased, but so is Poll Y, and it was pretty accurate in 2020, and Poll Z was pretty accurate in 2022, but its cross tabs look off, etc etc.
We have no idea what’s going to happen.
So why not expect the worst?

 

[BurntOrange&White 38,890]

Just now, BamaATL said:

about 45 minutes from now.  

Actually? 

[F250 28,544]

10 minutes ago, BevoAbyss said:

If Kamala wins, I sure as hell ain't partying at lame ass Chili's. I imagine Brinker Corp is run by a bunch of Trump-loving MBA pricks. Probably lots of SMU grads.

Win or lose, I am going to an immigrant-owned Mexican restaurant and chow on some great food, washed down with tequila.

Hmmm...

I like this idea. Get trashed on tequila after eating Mexican food and then start visiting MAGA properties while wearing a sombrero.

[BamaATL 16,289]

Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

Actually? 

Yeah, the first 6 votes will in fact be tabulated.  

[tx 3 putt 75,570]

 

[Js1 83,685]

2 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

So when will results actually start being posted? I know it’s likely dependent on state but am I going to be at work watching a livestream from 7am until the next day?

Dixville Notch at midnight/11pm central. Then roughly 5pm when the first polls in Indiana close (partial state done at 5 central, rest at 6 central)

Edited 4 hours ago by Js1

[Huckleberry 32,417]

Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

Actually? 

Yes, about 6 votes from Dixville Notch, NH will be announced shortly after midnight eastern. It doesn't mean anything but it's a little Election Day tradition.

[BearSchlong 8,015]

Yes. All of them. (45th and Lamar for Austin) 

I will be ubering there at 4, crushing some apps, and then leaving for AUS at 5.

[BurntOrange&White 38,890]

Just now, Js1 said:

Dixville Notch at midnight. Then roughly 5pm when the first polls in Indiana close (partial state done at 5, rest at 6)

There won’t be any partial state before 5cst?

[Irwin F Fletcher 3,549]

1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

We posting lunch beers tomorrow?

Fuck! What are you? Pre Med? Let's do this.

 

 

[Js1 83,685]

Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

There won’t be any partial state before 5cst?

No, no state can release partial results before polls close. Except the weird Dixville Notch stuff 

Edited 4 hours ago by Js1

[SizzleChest 8,260]

Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

There won’t be any partial state before 5cst?

Maybe South Korea.

[Rimbo 25,254]

[Valmy77 12,817]

1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

There won’t be any partial state before 5cst?

No votes are reported until polls close.

[BurntOrange&White 38,890]

Just now, Js1 said:

No, no state can release partial results before polls close. Except the weird Dixville Notch stuff 

Is there any cool facts about it or odds?

[henrygandorf 28,916]

 

[Js1 83,685]

Lol Nigel Farage told Trump he should shut up and just go play golf if Harris wins

[Biff Tannen 45,228]

4 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Not gonna lie, I was kinda hoping for kill whitey to end it. 

[tx 3 putt 75,570]

 

[NAVY 6,709]

Good night homies and good luck night crew 

[bolverk 29,105]

Link to the Philly rally. Oprah's on stage now while we wait.

 

[henrygandorf 28,916]

the west wing ep based on dixville.

 

on max if you’ve got 42 min to kill. 
 

 

[quigley 1,377]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Lol Nigel Farage told Trump he should shut up and just go play golf if Harris wins

do any prisons have golf courses?