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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11,077

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I believe that Kamala's economic policies will help the low and middle class afford more things, like visits to their local Chili's. This in turn should make them more popular and much more likely to reinstitute the Chili's 2 for $20 deal, which by all accounts was the perfect meal option and a true American date night staple. Know who's on your side and ready to make the tough decisions that will impact your wallet as much as your pallate, choose Kamala, choose Chili's. 

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Chult86
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I don't post all that often, though don't mistake that for not enjoying this board's discourse, OUsucks/Texags point and laughs, and quality original content on a frequent basis. I haven't felt t

Clintonaldo
Clintonaldo

Just had an interesting conversation with wife. Her: Hey Wednesday I need you to pick our son up Me: ok but be home by 4 because I am going to Chili’s for some internet friends. Her: You are mee

ConferenceRoom
ConferenceRoom

A conversation with my wife: ”We have to go to Chili’s when Kamala wins.” ”…Why?” ”Because that’s what Surly is doing.” ”We have to go to Chili’s because of Surly.” “Yes.”

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16,289

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Just now, Chopper said:

Yeah pretty much. I wish I knew if there's going to be a ton of exit pollsters in GA and PA though. With voting by mail, exit polls don't mean as much as they used to for sure. But tomorrow in those two states there could be a ton of worthwhile info.

Doubtful in Georgia.  8.3% was 2020 non voter, which basically means it will break in party lines by location tomorrow.  The goldmine would be EV exit polling, but I haven't seen much of anything worthwhile from that.  Also, only about 250k of mailin this go around, most all was in person ev.  

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Js1

Js1 83,686

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Just now, BamaATL said:

Doubtful in Georgia.  8.3% was 2020 non voter, which basically means it will break in party lines by location tomorrow.  The goldmine would be EV exit polling, but I haven't seen much of anything worthwhile from that.  Also, only about 250k of mailin this go around, most all was in person ev.  

They tried to incorporate early and mail exits in 2020 and they sucked then too

Just now, Mo Horn said:

Dotard 3 Kamala 3 in Dixie Notch

2012 all over again! Book it 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17,255

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Just now, Js1 said:

Dixville Notch is 4 registered GOP and 2 indies. So she won the indies and still a crossover vote!

Maybe she won the GOP 3-1 and lost the indies, you think about that?

Also, how does that town's politics change so much every election? Different people? Just fucking with everybody? 

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 25,996

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Just now, Biff Tannen said:

Does this happen every year?  Is it like Punxatawny Phil?

It's one of those quaint New Hampshah traditions to keep your mind off the Cthuhloid Interstellar Horrors that roam the dark sides of the frozen hills, caring not for Earth or Man or his treasured democracy.

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Js1

Js1 83,686

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Just now, Dahobbs said:

Maybe she won the GOP 3-1 and lost the indies, you think about that?

Also, how does that town's politics change so much every election? Different people? Just fucking with everybody? 

It’s a small rural town almost in Canada. It’s super weird, period. It’s just fun 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17,255

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

It’s a small rural town almost in Canada. It’s super weird, period. It’s just fun 

Oh, I know. I'm just confused about the voting they do. As I said, seems like they just fuck with everyone. 

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flatdawgs

flatdawgs 1,241

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

It’s a small rural town almost in Canada. It’s super weird, period. It’s just fun 

Yeah, was going to mention I'd been there and it takes place in a meeting room in the old late-1800s The Balsams resort, lots of photos of earlier election days, pols who had visited, and old result sheets on the walls, then turned it on and it was in somebody's living room this year (apparently the resort is getting renovated). Oh well.

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OU Sucks

OU Sucks 8,678

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It’s a small rural town almost in Canada. It’s super weird, period. It’s just fun 

And judging by the stream, they only have enough electricity to run 4 small lamps and a very dim overhead light.

Edited by OU Sucks
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Born to Run

Born to Run 6,364

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35 minutes ago, Vito Andolini said:

She’s objectively doing great, especially when considering it’s almost midnight in Pennsylvania after what must have been an exhausting day, capping an exhausting 107 day crusade to save the fucking democracy. She’s been a real surprise, whether it was the convention or the debate. She’s been a fantastic candidate.

Agreed; if we somehow lose; its an indictment on our system and time to throw in the towel. Kamala has run it perfectly; if that's not enough; it's on us. And that will be a sad reflection 

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Stilicho

Stilicho 1,394

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11 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

It's one of those quaint New Hampshah traditions to keep your mind off the Cthuhloid Interstellar Horrors that roam the dark sides of the frozen hills, caring not for Earth or Man or his treasured democracy.

Goddamn fish people are thick in the old woods of New England. 

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TexArcher

TexArcher 37,104

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Trump is telling his horde tonight that he's ahead by hundreds of thousands of votes in early voting.  He's used to having to catch up on Tuesday, in spite of being cheated.  Etc.

They're gonna absolutely lose their shit if he loses.  

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Chopper

Chopper 16,700

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Woulda been a lot cheaper to make a fake Cybertruck out of refrigerator boxes and spray paint.

Only because I want it to be, my opinion is that the person rented it and had fun for a day.

 

39 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Doubtful in Georgia.  8.3% was 2020 non voter, which basically means it will break in party lines by location tomorrow.  The goldmine would be EV exit polling, but I haven't seen much of anything worthwhile from that.  Also, only about 250k of mailin this go around, most all was in person ev.  

Gonna be a long day.

siap - thought I'd deleted this but it popped back in my post. 

image.png

Edited by Chopper
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Hermanator

Hermanator 6,699

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So just to be clear, a ton of these pollsters are just maga fakes or foreign fakes attempting to fuck with the election. 

Then the ones that aren't fakes are all people believing they have to adjust and rig their numbers far to the red to get the results closer to the median so they don't look completely stupid no matter who wins?

And the one poll that doesn't ske the numbers by the lady in Iowa who just says fuck all that nonsense has Harris wiping the floor with trump in lilly white Iowa?

Is that where we stand?

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16,289

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19 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Only because I want it to be, my opinion is that the person rented it and had fun for a day.

 

Gonna be a long day.

siap - thought I'd deleted this but it popped back in my post. 

image.png

Hopefully everything runs smoothly here tomorrow, especially with the EV returns coming back timely at 8 est/7 central, which I believe it will.  I don't think it will all hit exactly at the same time, but we should get some great early indicators.  I listed this in the prediction thread a while ago, but I'm really looking at 3 counties here that I think will tell the story, not only for Georgia, but perhaps even nationally.  These are 3 red counties in northern Metro Atlanta, Cherokee, Forsyth, and Hall Counties, none will flip, but they are big enough to matter while small enough to be some of the earlier ones to report.  If any of these, and of course preferably all of them report slippages in R support it will mean a couple of things, the first being that Trump most likely can't win in Georgia, and the second being that just how big the drift is from Trump.  I listed the prior percentages in the prediction thread, but from memory if he doesn't exceed 65% in these 3, I really like our chances here.  

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elfenix

elfenix 34,129

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57 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

It's one of those quaint New Hampshah traditions to keep your mind off the Cthuhloid Interstellar Horrors that roam the dark sides of the frozen hills, caring not for Earth or Man or his treasured democracy.

andy-walsh-offering-to-cthulhu-by-andy-walsh-1700px-sig.thumb.jpg.e907baba2d3d799abc1b0774fcd67e6b.jpg

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16,289

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6 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

So just to be clear, a ton of these pollsters are just maga fakes or foreign fakes attempting to fuck with the election. 

Then the ones that aren't fakes are all people believing they have to adjust and rig their numbers far to the red to get the results closer to the median so they don't look completely stupid no matter who wins?

And the one poll that doesn't ske the numbers by the lady in Iowa who just says fuck all that nonsense has Harris wiping the floor with trump in lilly white Iowa?

Is that where we stand?

Sezler is an outlier, she does her own thing, gets real data, and politics be damned.  Shockingly enough, that simple approach with no bullshit seems to be pretty accurate.  

There are others trying to emulate her, but frankly they get drowned out, partly by partisan polls commissioned and paid for by both parties (though far more from Republicans, who to boot weaponize them), and then slapdicks like Silver who has monetized the polling business.  So the real problem is, you only have a handful of people doing actual real work, and they are completely drowned out by an old asshole trying to make a buck.  The problem with herding is, all the monetized polls figure they can't be hurt if they are in the ballpark as everyone else, so now, the actually polling data is secondary to being near the pack with everyone else.  So the idea of polling aggregation is then completely fucking useless because the data is secondary.  

In short, it's a vicious circle jerk of stupidity.  In fact the circle jerk is probably better time spent, at least at the end there is a tangible result.  

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