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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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47 minutes ago, quigley said:

I finally got around to reading the Des Moines Register article.

The BIG difference between Selzer is that she got 808 respondents from only 1038 calls. This is an UNBELIEVABLE response rate. NYT/Siena reported 2.5% response rate.

15 - 20% would be amazing, but she's getting 80% ??? Amazing if true. Leaves me wondering what makes her dial sheet so much better than everyone else's.

She's called them before.

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48 minutes ago, quigley said:

I finally got around to reading the Des Moines Register article.

The BIG difference between Selzer is that she got 808 respondents from only 1038 calls. This is an UNBELIEVABLE response rate. NYT/Siena reported 2.5% response rate.

15 - 20% would be amazing, but she's getting 80% ??? Amazing if true. Leaves me wondering what makes her dial sheet so much better than everyone else's.

Her polling is also expensive af, which is why she only dropped 3 general election polls in 5 months.

 

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53 minutes ago, quigley said:

I finally got around to reading the Des Moines Register article.

The BIG difference between Selzer is that she got 808 respondents from only 1038 calls. This is an UNBELIEVABLE response rate. NYT/Siena reported 2.5% response rate.

15 - 20% would be amazing, but she's getting 80% ??? Amazing if true. Leaves me wondering what makes her dial sheet so much better than everyone else's.

Also, remember those polls that showed Harris winning by like 15 points with people who have already voted?  Everyone kind of blew those off but if the Iowa poll is right, that explains those polls and those polls might be right.

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4 minutes ago, immamac said:

Its a great day to be an American. Go exercise your rights today. 

I'll see you all at Chilis tomorrow. 

immamac channeling his best Tom Hanks from SPR.

"I'll see you on the beach."

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@Pancho

On a serious note: are you going to slap a warning to all the chuckle fucks who have spent the last 4 years saying “don’t CR X” who are going to come pouring into the thread after 7 or just let the chips fall where they may?

On a personal note, I’m going dark this evening to self care and medicate and will tune back in 9:30-ish EST. 

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3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

New Hampshire with Harris 62/34.  Shit:

https://rockefeller.dartmouth.edu/about-center/dartmouth-poll/media-and-results

When asked who they would support for president, 61.9% of Granite State voters say they would vote for Harris, 33.5% report that they would vote for Trump, and 4.6% report that they would vote for another candidate.

I'll take that shift to the left nationwide please, thank you. 

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9 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Counterpoint: there is more incentive to make shit polls that keep people engaged and clicking, thinking it’s a horse race that is going to come down to the wire. 

I've hated that shit for decades. The primaries are not actually stages in a horse race. Why should the vote in the fucking Iowa caucuses have any impact on voters nationwide? But it does. Why, I ask:

 

8 hours ago, SeattleHorn said:

 

There's a template that dictates the easiest, most worn paths to avoid actually working to get news stories. Iowa seemed to provide "momentum" for a candidate once, so the national media cover it like the Normandy Invasion every election since. It has great impact on who will even be in the race on Super Tuesday which is just stupid.

The notion of not being the newsstory yourself is out the window. They do not recognize their function as a magnifying glass or microscope lending size and importance to otherwise miniscule events. 

The above is not really a newsstory at all. It's predictable and irrelevant. TV news media absolutely love it.

As stated by @Biff Tannen, a horse race is more fun to cover and get viewers than a political contest. So let's frame one as the other. 

Iowa?

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