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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19271

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

You made the right choice to invest it whether the market goes up, down, or sideways. If you'd kept that money in cash you know you'd sober up to a whopping rent check from the marina for your new fleet of jet-skis.

Nah, if GOLL is going to blow a fortune on something aquatic, it’s going to be something like one of those gorgeous mahogany speedboats you see on Lake Como. Which might actually be a worse investment than jet skis

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Chult86
Chult86

I don't post all that often, though don't mistake that for not enjoying this board's discourse, OUsucks/Texags point and laughs, and quality original content on a frequent basis. I haven't felt t

Clintonaldo
Clintonaldo

Just had an interesting conversation with wife. Her: Hey Wednesday I need you to pick our son up Me: ok but be home by 4 because I am going to Chili’s for some internet friends. Her: You are mee

ConferenceRoom
ConferenceRoom

A conversation with my wife: ”We have to go to Chili’s when Kamala wins.” ”…Why?” ”Because that’s what Surly is doing.” ”We have to go to Chili’s because of Surly.” “Yes.”

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G650

G650 13405

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Just now, Pescado_Rojo said:

Nah, if GOLL is going to blow a fortune on something aquatic, it’s going to be something like one of those gorgeous mahogany speedboats you see on Lake Como

Riva Aquarama. Single sexiest boat ever made.

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TexasHooch

TexasHooch 5112

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59 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So yesterday I closed on the sale of a house.  Very long story--was supposed to be Mrs.LL's dream house, but interest rates happened and the timing and shit and now it just makes more sense to renovate the current house.  So today, I have quite a lot of money sitting in cash in my brokerage account.

Here's the thing--Wall Street doesn't understand shit about politics.  Mrs.LL was in finance for a long time, and ever since we've been together, I've always been shocked by how little Wall Street understands politics.  So much of their business is dictated by what happens in Washington, but they understand fuck-all about it.  And right now, Wall Street is expecting 1) a Trump win (and the inflationary and recessionary dangers that come with that) and 2) a period of uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the election as happened in 2020.

Based on everything we know, I strongly expect neither of those things.  And I think the market is going to react very favorably to 1) No Trump, and 2) certainty (irrespective of who wins) when the race is called shortly after midnight CST.  So fuck your prediction thread--I'm putting my money where my mouth is.  When the market goes up 5% tomorrow on the strength of a definitive Kamala win, the first round at Chili's is on me.

Why Wall Street?  Just put it all on Harris to win. YOLO!!!!!1

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The Dog

The Dog 43615

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1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

Isn't D always stronger on ED? Shouldn't that be the given versus a "possibility?"

 

Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I cannot decipher this.  What "is real"? The data?  Some prediction?

Explanation:

Democratic turnout increases through the day usually, so for the Democrats to already be running with GOP is a good sign potentially.

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Js1

Js1 84862

Posted
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1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

Isn't D always stronger on ED? Shouldn't that be the given versus a "possibility?"

The big thing is whether the GOP did truly eat into their E-Day votes this time around.  And it looks quite possible, which is likely why Ralston predicts Harris wins the state. 

The dooming over AZ is something to behold - yes, the GOP has a massive edge, but this is the state of McCain Republicans.  And indies are 700k early votes.

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Js1

Js1 84862

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Alberta is the most plugged in from The Atlantic with the Trump campaign, so...

 

Good morning and happy Election Day. The closest I'll come to a prediction: Eight years ago, I wrote about the conflict between my brain and my gut. Everything I knew (state data, demographic trends, etc) pointed to a Clinton victory. Yet everything I saw (hidden support, intensity of opposition toward Clinton) suggested Trump would win. Today feels eerily similar—with the roles reversed. Everything I know (high floor, erosion within the Dem coalition, good environment) points to a Trump victory. Yet everything I see (hidden support, intensity of opposition toward Trump) suggests Harris will win. My brain has told me, since springtime, that Trump is the favorite. That didn't change when Harris took over the ticket; I told audiences throughout September and part of October that I thought he'd win. But my gut—especially over these last two weeks—keeps saying Harris, and maybe even Harris by a comfortable margin. Bottom line: a massacre in the suburbs would realign the electorate more than any shift among urban non-whites. Trump may well improve in Detroit, but if he loses Oakland County by 20 points it ain't gonna matter.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47715

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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The big thing is whether the GOP did truly eat into their E-Day votes this time around.  And it looks quite possible, which is likely why Ralston predicts Harris wins the state. 

The dooming over AZ is something to behold - yes, the GOP has a massive edge, but this is the state of McCain Republicans.  And indies are 700k early votes.

I haven't seen anyone dooming over AZ. But I'm dooming over fucking everything, so what the fuck is the story with AZ?

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Js1

Js1 84862

Posted
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Just now, SydneyCarton said:

I haven't seen anyone dooming over AZ. But I'm dooming over fucking everything, so what the fuck is the story with AZ?

Then you haven't been on the 538 megathread today on reddit lol

GOP is +300k or so on Dems in the early vote, but there's 700k indie votes sitting there.  

GOP is bigly outvoting Dems in Maricopa this morning, but jesus christ, it's 9am there.  The old people have been awake for 5 hours already.

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dcbc

dcbc 14333

Posted
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7 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Isn't D always stronger on ED? Shouldn't that be the given versus a "possibility?"

I believe D tends to be a bit flaccid on ED, unless there's something blue involved.

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UrbanAchiever

UrbanAchiever 276

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3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The big thing is whether the GOP did truly eat into their E-Day votes this time around.  And it looks quite possible, which is likely why Ralston predicts Harris wins the state. 

The dooming over AZ is something to behold - yes, the GOP has a massive edge, but this is the state of McCain Republicans.  And indies are 700k early votes.

The largest political constituency in Arizona is Independents. They just surpassed registered republicans last year. My brother is one of them, and he loathes trump. There are a lot of sensible mavericks in Arizona which is why McCain was so beloved. 

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Js1

Js1 84862

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Just now, UrbanAchiever said:

The largest political constituency in Arizona is Independents. They just surpassed registered republicans last year. My brother is one of them, and he loathes trump. There are a lot of sensible mavericks in Arizona which is why McCain was so beloved. 

Yeah, I am not dooming over Arizona

Indies are bigger than in Nevada, and they're likely mostly young, POCs or former McCain Republicans.  She is going to get a lot of crossover support from McCain Republicans who are still registered with the GOP. 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47715

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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Then you haven't been on the 538 megathread today on reddit lol

GOP is +300k or so on Dems in the early vote, but there's 700k indie votes sitting there.  

GOP is bigly outvoting Dems in Maricopa this morning, but jesus christ, it's 9am there.  The old people have been awake for 5 hours already.

Yeah, I don't do reddit. 

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Celery Man

Celery Man 20718

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1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Current Map(Pending 5pm dump)

image.thumb.png.e08c62772a9d6d343610f0f541fbf108.png

Lfg 

IMG_0720.thumb.jpeg.36b30d3fff1eeb5374260ff5b3f0c9eb.jpeg

1 hour ago, elfenix said:

people ask me why i don't move to the woodlands (where i work).

grew up there and visit every so often. you can taste it in the air with the humidity 

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Js1

Js1 84862

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  • PA E-Day looks good - Philly is popping off
  • Atlanta E-Day looks good - 30k votes already in Fulton County, halfway to what they need to hit 2020 turnout
  • NV E-Day looks good too
  • Michigan SOS says they are on track to break turnout records
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hobbes2702

hobbes2702 12560

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5 minutes ago, UrbanAchiever said:

The largest political constituency in Arizona is Independents. They just surpassed registered republicans last year. My brother is one of them, and he loathes trump. There are a lot of sensible mavericks in Arizona which is why McCain was so beloved. 

Sensible and McCain don’t belong in the same sentence. Other than that carry on

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G650

G650 13405

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Just now, Pescado_Rojo said:

Have you seen the YouTube vids of the one they restored with the original lambo engines? Fucking art.

Yeah I followed that when they were doing it. I can't imagine what that one would sell for. You can get a reasonably well taken care of standard one for about 750K, I would think the Lambo one is probably 5 million, if they ever sold it.

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Js1

Js1 84862

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13 minutes ago, South Austin said:

This seems good, but not great.

It's already been revised up again; they are doing what they need to do.  There's still 8 hours of voting in PA to go and the busiest times are first thing in the morning, lunch time and in the evening after work. 

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Js1

Js1 84862

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1 minute ago, Pancho said:

The Economist has increased Harris winning from 50% to 56% this morning 

I believe 538, Economist and Silver Bulletin all flipped to Harris this morning/overnight. 

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Js1

Js1 84862

Posted
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Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

thanks.  enough people write that in, then cowboys suck ends up president.  scotus has to rule what human that represents.  pres jerry jones imo

President/GM Jerry Jones.

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 18593

Posted
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22 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Nah, if GOLL is going to blow a fortune on something aquatic, it’s going to be something like one of those gorgeous mahogany speedboats you see on Lake Como. Which might actually be a worse investment than jet skis

 

21 minutes ago, G650 said:

Riva Aquarama. Single sexiest boat ever made.

Napoleon Dynamite Want GIF

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26138

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Posted

Mrs. Canecutter swanned out the door to vote wearing her fancy beret from France. I asked her if that wasn't the same as a "Fuck Trump" tshirt.

Sort of thing that might test the composure of a skinny-necked RepubliKaren. At least the city jail is a short walk away.

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