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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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Chult86
Chult86

I don't post all that often, though don't mistake that for not enjoying this board's discourse, OUsucks/Texags point and laughs, and quality original content on a frequent basis. I haven't felt t

Clintonaldo
Clintonaldo

Just had an interesting conversation with wife. Her: Hey Wednesday I need you to pick our son up Me: ok but be home by 4 because I am going to Chili’s for some internet friends. Her: You are mee

ConferenceRoom
ConferenceRoom

A conversation with my wife: ”We have to go to Chili’s when Kamala wins.” ”…Why?” ”Because that’s what Surly is doing.” ”We have to go to Chili’s because of Surly.” “Yes.”

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G650

G650 13394

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I've never wanted to eat Chilis for lunch as hard as I do right now.

Just now, Reynolds Woodcock said:

I think I spot some Grand Tremezzo umbrellas. Don't sleep on their pizzas in the back pool area. 

Shit homie, what do you think my last meal before rolling out was

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11665

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, boilerhorn said:

Yes.  538 shows: 503-495-2 Harris in latest 1000 simulations.  That's a far cry from the 64% Harris predictions in Sept.  
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

it's a coin toss has been said basically nonstop for a long time now by all these guys.  what are you arguing against?

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B00M

B00M 6081

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

2cdl1n37h1zd1.jpeg


Can someone tell me how to commit some of that sweet, sweet voter fraud? I have it on good authority that it’s easy to do and get away with. 
fuck you musk

Edited by B00M
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Js1

Js1 84497

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Philly vote tracker says they are at 70% of 2020

E-Day vote in Clark looks like 33/33/33.  It was 50% R in 2020.  They definitely cannibalized their E-Day vote.  

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11665

Posted
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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

cannibalized

imma username checks out again, but i don't buy this story line.  banking votes is always better than hoping you get the same participation on voting day.  of course each early vote "cannibalizes" by that one exact person not voting on election day, but it 100% guarantees that that person does vote.

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Js1

Js1 84497

Posted
Posted

Maricopa E-Day votes (as of 9am)

40-42% R, it was 58% R in 2020

Indies are key here - almost 40% of the vote today itself, and only 2k votes behind GOP in the county so far.

I think the big 2024 post-mortem is going to be: "The indies decided the elections" 

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Js1

Js1 84497

Posted
Posted
Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

imma username checks out again, but i don't buy this story line.  banking votes is always better than hoping you get the same participation on voting day.  of course each early vote "cannibalizes" by that one exact person not voting on election day, but it 100% guarantees that that person does vote.

Well I can tell you this much - 

MAGA Election Twitter is hardcore dooming about the NV E-Day vote.  And its about to flip on Polymarket to Harris

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HRSchenker

HRSchenker 2230

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Alberta is the most plugged in from The Atlantic with the Trump campaign, so...

 

Good morning and happy Election Day. The closest I'll come to a prediction: Eight years ago, I wrote about the conflict between my brain and my gut. Everything I knew (state data, demographic trends, etc) pointed to a Clinton victory. Yet everything I saw (hidden support, intensity of opposition toward Clinton) suggested Trump would win. Today feels eerily similar—with the roles reversed. Everything I know (high floor, erosion within the Dem coalition, good environment) points to a Trump victory. Yet everything I see (hidden support, intensity of opposition toward Trump) suggests Harris will win. My brain has told me, since springtime, that Trump is the favorite. That didn't change when Harris took over the ticket; I told audiences throughout September and part of October that I thought he'd win. But my gut—especially over these last two weeks—keeps saying Harris, and maybe even Harris by a comfortable margin. Bottom line: a massacre in the suburbs would realign the electorate more than any shift among urban non-whites. Trump may well improve in Detroit, but if he loses Oakland County by 20 points it ain't gonna matter.

That's exactly the sentiment I get from my political consultant buddy in Austin. "Brain says Trump, gut says Harris". 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25002

Posted
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Just now, RDCanecutter said:

Well I gotta go slop the animals, get cleaned up, and symbolically crush fascism. Will enjoy voting in the AL 7th District this year against any would-be sneak-in House R. Catch y'all on the flip side.

if you hear banjo music from the woods don't go investigate.

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heso

heso 2699

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Philly vote tracker says they are at 70% of 2020

E-Day vote in Clark looks like 33/33/33.  It was 50% R in 2020.  They definitely cannibalized their E-Day vote.  

Where are the Philly numbers coming from?

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 29838

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, bolverk said:

Several months ago, someone with much more insight than me described public polls as providing the overall shape of the election. What internal polls apparently do is hone in on key geographic or demographic indicators in greater detail, helping campaigns understand the voting behavior of very specific groups that they feel are of particular significance.

my back fence  neighbor who moved to Katy after Katrina was not concerned about Katrina.   He and his family were not leaving.  I was following weather underground forum hurricane coverage really closely - with all the amateur neurologist and dropsonde data and knew we were in trouble.    He works for Murphy Oil,  so I said ‘don’t you guys have your own internal meteorologist?’

Hw went inside and checked his laptop and came out and announced that they were leaving in an hour.   People with lots of money hire people who know more than what the plebes are told. 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25002

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

You have an interpreter for your wife? Jealous.

 

2 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

You found a wife who doesn't speak English? Nice.

I don't speak complaining.

It was something I posted earlier in this thread. I assume you missed it because you were voting or cleaning your 5.56 rounds.

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aggie08

aggie08 20624

Posted
Posted
Just now, InkaUtexas said:

 

I don't speak complaining.

It was something I posted earlier in this thread. I assume you missed it because you were voting or cleaning your 5.56 rounds.

Yep, I (generally) know what you do for a living. Good man.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25002

Posted
Posted
Just now, Sbbruin said:

There’s a lot of optimism on this thread.  I wish I felt it too.  I just have this constant nightmare that it’s not happening.  I really hope I’m wrong.

Be honest. you are just waking up from the Dodgers parade.

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