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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

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immamac

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Just now, Longhorn94 said:

It's stupid. He has lost every election since 2016. He is NOT good at this. Jesus....

The only reason he won the first time is Hillary didn't take it fucking seriously enough and was doing victory laps the first time and acting like she was an incumbent. 

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TexPx

TexPx 2270

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I am almost at the point where if Trump wins, I want him to go scorched earth on the country and send us back 100 years just so I can fucking show these dumb motherfuckers that voted for him that they have reaped what they sowed

He won’t do shit. He will inherit one of the best economies in history and take credit for it. Like 2016. He rarely keeps his campaign promises. Like 2016.

But he will play golf and fill his cabinet with a cesspool of nepotism and indicted criminals who will attempt to send us back 100 years.
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Js1

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Just now, immamac said:

The only reason he won the first time is Hillary didn't take it fucking seriously enough and was doing victory laps the first time and acting like she was an incumbent. 

Oh come on - 

He was the fresh face and people were naive enough to think he'd be constrained by the gravity of the office and the establishment 
Hillary was *reviled,* not just by the right and a big chunk of independents, but by a big chunk of her own party
She fucked up left and right, whether it was real, like her emails, hiding her pneumonia issue, ignoring the blue wall, or imagined, like Benghazi
20 year smear campaign - she was still dealing with shit from the 90s being brought up the right wing hate machine every day
She cratered with WWC voters and the suburban/college educated shift had not yet happened

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Js1

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And Bozo mentioned it before, and I agree, that 2012 was just as bad a polling error as 2016/2020, but it was in Romney's favor, and Obama won easily.  2012 was legit a tossup by the pollsters/pundits heading into Election Day (except Silver, which of course, made him famous). 

And I think that's exactly what happens this year. 

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Tuco

Tuco 4994

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Just now, Js1 said:

I mean, we have talked at length about where he finds new voters - 

newly registered young women? not a chance
newly registered young men? maybe, but there was a poll showing Gen Z men are supporting Harris almost at the same levels of Gen Z women, so unless he's tapped into a pool of Tate-pilled alpha bros....
newly registered black women? LOL

I said it yesterday - unless he has absolutely found this giant source of untapped voters who barely ever or have never shown up to vote, *and turns them out,* he's going to have to win a lot more Dems than she is winning Republicans (unlikely), stem the bleeding of suburban college educated whites (not a chance), pick off minority voters at a substantial rate (not based on polling, he's not) and win independents.  But the vast majority of newly registered independents are young voters and voters of color and the swingier, established indies are suburban women.

He also cannot bleed any support in WWC men/women.  I mean, he won them 67-32.  If he only wins them 65-34, he's in trouble in the blue wall. 

Or hope that turnout craters, but we are likely on pace for 2008/2020 turnout and not 2016 turnout. 

I would add:

- Anti-vaxxers, anti-establishment left leaners who will come over with RFKjr

- Racists who aren't inclined for a black woman. (I think Trump already captured a big chunk of these, but actually running against a black person will help get more, particularly from anti-black Latinos) 

- Variety of sexists who won't vote for a woman

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The Dog

The Dog 42677

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That NBC story raises an interesting question: Why is he campaigning in states that are considered uncompetitive?

As the article says, they either have quality polling that says that the Rust Belt states are wrapped up, or he's calling the shots and ignoring everything else. 

I'd tend to favor the latter as that's historically been his MO and that he has no ground game in the Rust Belt other than Pennsylvania. There's nobody on the ground in the other states to tell them that all is going great. 

Looking back at 2016, Hillary's campaign had a decent ground game in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania who all were trying to send the message that she wasn't in great shape in those states in spite of the polls.

The problem was the message didn't get through due to serious incompetence and arrogance in her national campaign. Trump threads the needle and here we are.

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Js1

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Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

As the article says, they either have quality polling that says that the Rust Belt states are wrapped up, or he's calling the shots and ignoring everything else. 

 

Screaming about PA being rigged on Truth Social and a bunch of people on the right like Charlie Kirk screaming about women bigly outvoting men in the rust belt does not scream "wrapped up" to me

Trump wants big crowds, he wants to project strength, he wants to act like he's winning so when he doesn't, he can raise $500 million for lawsuits and pocket 85% of it. 

He will transfer all the leftover money + whatever he raises for lawsuits into his bank account, the FEC will open an inquiry about it and wrap it up in 2032.  He'll be dead by then. 

Edited by Js1
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Red Five

Red Five 40078

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6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

And Bozo mentioned it before, and I agree, that 2012 was just as bad a polling error as 2016/2020, but it was in Romney's favor, and Obama won easily.  2012 was legit a tossup by the pollsters/pundits heading into Election Day (except Silver, which of course, made him famous). 

And I think that's exactly what happens this year. 

Interesting. In my head it was much closer than this. 

2012_large.png

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9444

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

It’s all old white ppl and magats that moved from blue states /sushi

Sushi isn’t wrong that there is a self sorting migration going on. The NYT has an article on it today. 
 

I could see it potentially being an issue in NV and AZ, but it’s also helping Dems in bluing up WI, MI, and PA.  A bunch of hard Red retirees moving to Florida doesn’t really help them at this point.

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Js1

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Just now, Hank Kingsley said:

Dear Michiganders, 

 

I don't remember where I saw it, but actual Palestinians living in Gaza prefer Harris.

So maybe those tantum-throwing fools should consider what their people actually going through atrocities want instead. 

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DigglerontheHoof

DigglerontheHoof 20438

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22 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

I'd guess it's the frat and Rogan bros. White 18-29 year old males. If they actually vote in numbers, that will be a problem. Hopefully they are too fucking lazy and currently look at Trump as entertainment more than a viable candidate that will get them off their ass and vote.

 

I bet UT frat houses are lousy w/ maga flair. 

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Js1

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Just now, Red Five said:

Interesting. In my head it was much closer than this. 

2012_large.png

It felt closer than it was because the polling average nationally was Obama +0.7.  The final 9 polls were 3 ties, 2 Romney leads (+1), 4 Obama leads (+3, +1, +1, +3)

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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 38688

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7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

As the article says, they either have quality polling that says that the Rust Belt states are wrapped up, or he's calling the shots and ignoring everything else. 

I'd tend to favor the latter

It's probably 100% him ignoring internal polling because he doesn't like it so he only looks at Twitter/Truth for polls that show him favored or even.

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Js1

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5 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Sushi isn’t wrong that there is a self sorting migration going on. The NYT has an article on it today. 
 

I could see it potentially being an issue in NV and AZ, but it’s also helping Dems in bluing up WI, MI, and PA.  A bunch of hard Red retirees moving to Florida doesn’t really help them at this point.

Yes, there does exist a world (a likely one) where Trump wins TX and FL by bigger margins, but still loses PA, MI, WI, based on COVID migration.  California is be bluer, AZ/NV gets a little bit redder, but the upper midwest, GA, NC and CO get bluer. 

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South Austin

South Austin 51349

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11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Oh come on - 

He was the fresh face and people were naive enough to think he'd be constrained by the gravity of the office and the establishment 
Hillary was *reviled,* not just by the right and a big chunk of independents, but by a big chunk of her own party
She fucked up left and right, whether it was real, like her emails, hiding her pneumonia issue, ignoring the blue wall, or imagined, like Benghazi
20 year smear campaign - she was still dealing with shit from the 90s being brought up the right wing hate machine every day
She cratered with WWC voters and the suburban/college educated shift had not yet happened

 

9 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I have irrational confidence that Harris wins and by quite a bit. Well, I'm not sure it is irrational, but isn't based on hard data. 

Js1's points above are why confidence in a Harris win should not be irrational.

I had all those feeling about Hillary Clinton.  She was incredibly qualified to be President, far more so than Trump.  But for all of the reasons above I was one of the multitude of Democratic voters who were unenthusiastic about voting for Hillary, and I also had in the back of my mind that Trump might just be a harmless buffoon.  But I still voted for her, and there may have been a significant number of those who voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 who sat that one out. 

Now we have a candidate injecting some fresh energy into the presidential race, much more so than Biden in 2020, in contrast with just how incredibly embarrassing, dangerous, and just plain shitty Trump's character and leadership has revealed.  I think that's going to bring a lot more voters back to support the Democratic nominee, as well as the very promising demographic of new voters.

I feel better about Harris than I did about Biden in 2020.     

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 29374

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Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

It's probably 100% him ignoring internal polling because he doesn't like it so he only looks at Twitter/Truth for polls that show him favored or even.

Someone is going to have to point out to me a person currently being paid by Trump who will actually agree to tell Doddard the extremely bad news….while still expecting to be paid in the future.

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11473

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9 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Sushi isn’t wrong that there is a self sorting migration going on. The NYT has an article on it today. 
 

I could see it potentially being an issue in NV and AZ, but it’s also helping Dems in bluing up WI, MI, and PA.  A bunch of hard Red retirees moving to Florida doesn’t really help them at this point.

Great sort article.  Wonderful for copium.  Easy to conclude from this that 2020 blue states start bluer, red states start redder. When blue won in 2020, that's a good thing.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/30/upshot/voters-moving-polarization.html?unlocked_article_code=1.WU4.cuoO.NxBtf07ZKFSG&smid=url-share

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32104

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The difficult part is we know that the big sort (migration) and party realignment (primarily education level based) are happening but we can't know relative impacts until actual results come in. That's where the not knowing shit about fuck comes from. Which one has a bigger impact on Pennsylvania for example? They have a large population of uneducated white people in the western half of the state, but they are also losing more Republican voters to migration. Add to all of this that party registration lags realignment, it doesn't lead. 

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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 38688

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yes, there does exist a world (a likely one) where Trump wins TX and FL by bigger margins, but still loses PA, MI, WI, based on COVID migration.  California is be bluer, AZ/NV gets a little bit redder, but the upper midwest, GA, NC and CO get bluer. 

IMO Florida will be won by 1-1.5% by either candidate. 

This president will be something like this in EC
 

303-235 Kamala

319-219 Kamala

Depending on who wins North Carolina.

 

Longshot but this could be a result as well if Florida flips:

349-189 Kamala with NC

333-205 Kamala without NC

 

Edited by BurntOrange&White
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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9444

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6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It's so stupid that these frat boys don't want to get laid. 

Boy #2 is often his house’s sober monitor and he says it’s an absolute shit show on weekends. Most of the frats are in some form of self or university imposed ban.

America’s young men are not well. At all.

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Js1

Js1 82210

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1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

IMO Florida will be won by 1-1.5% by either candidate. 

It is hard for me to look at Florida and see a lot of good things, but a lot of that is clouded by 2022. 

Democratic turnout and enthusiasm just fucked cratered down there in 2022. 

If Trump somehow only wins FL by 1-1.5%, he's lost GA and NC and the entire Blue Wall. 

I won't believe that until I see it.  Also, not gonna lie, and neg away, if FL wants to do the funniest shit next week and vote for Harris and beat Texas, I'll take that trade-off. 

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BurntOrange&White

BurntOrange&White 38688

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Posted
Just now, Js1 said:

It is hard for me to look at Florida and see a lot of good things, but a lot of that is clouded by 2022. 

Democratic turnout and enthusiasm just fucked cratered down there in 2022. 

If Trump somehow only wins FL by 1-1.5%, he's lost GA and NC and the entire Blue Wall. 

I won't believe that until I see it.  Also, not gonna lie, and neg away, if FL wants to do the funniest shit next week and vote for Harris and beat Texas, I'll take that trade-off. 

TAKE THIS SHIT TO THE CR FOOTBALL BOARD!

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wildcat09

wildcat09 28368

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25 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I would add:

- Anti-vaxxers, anti-establishment left leaners who will come over with RFKjr

- Racists who aren't inclined for a black woman. (I think Trump already captured a big chunk of these, but actually running against a black person will help get more, particularly from anti-black Latinos) 

- Variety of sexists who won't vote for a woman

Those anti vaxxers voted Trump in 2020. They were fully radicalized during covid and virtually none of them sat that one out (the ones that did aren’t functional enough to know when the election even is).

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11473

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11 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Great sort article.  Wonderful for copium.  Easy to conclude from this that 2020 blue states start bluer, red states start redder. When blue won in 2020, that's a good thing.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/30/upshot/voters-moving-polarization.html?unlocked_article_code=1.WU4.cuoO.NxBtf07ZKFSG&smid=url-share

Two notable exceptions are NV and AZ, both taking all of the R detritus that CA casts off.

 

image.png.de8463c22aaf61d3a443ba5b8151cd61.png

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Tuco

Tuco 4994

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Just now, wildcat09 said:

Those anti vaxxers voted Trump in 2020. They were fully radicalized during covid and virtually none of them sat that one out (the ones that did aren’t functional enough to know when the election even is).

Some of them did. But Trump was touting how he invented the various vaccines and his CDC was pushing folks to get them. He was still part of the industrial medical conspiracy.  Promising RFKjr control is a major shift. 

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