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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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A conversation with my wife: ”We have to go to Chili’s when Kamala wins.” ”…Why?” ”Because that’s what Surly is doing.” ”We have to go to Chili’s because of Surly.” “Yes.”

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SizzleChest

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  • Democrat Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in Iowa 47% to 44%, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.
  • A victory for Harris would be a shocking development after Iowa has swung aggressively to the right in recent elections, delivering Trump solid victories in 2016 and 2020.
  • The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
  • Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.

Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.  

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states.  

The results follow a September Iowa Poll that showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll showing him with an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden, who was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time.  

“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.” 

 

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Js1

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1 minute ago, Hefeweizen said:

That Iowa poll is a shocker.  Given the bs polling all over it is hard to put much on one poll but Seltzer is the gold standard in Iowa.  If this pans out it’s a landslide coming.

She doesn’t make assumptions of the electorate makeup or put her own bias into polls. Post-2016 (I think?) she said, “I assumed nothing. My data told me.”

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Huckleberry

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

her track record means this poll is clearly showing a) late Movement to Harris, b) Trump Midwest slippage is real. 

"Incredibly gutsy"

Those two words show everything wrong with polls right now. Guts should have nothing to do with it. Report what you find. 

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Francisco 2.0

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From the poll article:

 

 

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Independent voters, who had consistently supported Trump in the leadup to this election, now break for Harris. That’s driven by the strength of independent women, who back Harris by a 28-point margin, while independent men support Trump, but by a smaller margin. 

Similarly, senior voters who are 65 and older favor Harris. But senior women support her by a more than 2-to-1 margin, 63% to 28%, while senior men favor her by just 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%.  

 

 

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Independent likely voters, who have supported Trump in every other Iowa Poll this year, now favor Harris, 46% to 39%.  

Now, independent women choose Harris over Trump 57% to 29%. That’s up from September, when independent women gave her just a 5-point lead, 40% to 35%.  

Independent men still favor Trump 47% to 37% — numbers that are largely unchanged from September, when independent men supported him 46% to 33%.   

Overall, Harris holds a 20-point lead with women, 56% to 36%, similar to where she was in September. 

But Trump’s lead with men has shrunk from 27 points in September (59% to 32%) to 14 points today (52% to 38%).  

 

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Harris holds a small lead with likely Iowa voters who are younger than 35, 46% to 44% over Trump.  

Harris’ larger support among likely voters 65 and older, who prefer her 55% to 36%, could be a boon, because older Iowans tend to be more reliable voters and show up at disproportionately higher rates.  

 

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Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.  

He carries Iowa men 52% to 38% and evangelicals 73% to 20%.  

Trump leads with those living in rural areas (55% to 35%) and those living in towns (49% to 40%). But Harris carries those in cities (61% to 33%) and suburbs (59% to 36%).  

Among those without a college degree, Trump leads 51% to 39%. And Harris gets those with a college degree, 61% to 31%.  

 

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Ralph Newbanks, a 63-year-old poll respondent from Solon, said he is a lifelong Republican who plans to vote for Harris this year.  

“It's not what I like about her, it's what I dislike about Trump,” he said. “Since 2020 and the Capitol riots, I couldn't vote for Trump if he paid me, not for love nor money.” 

He thought about casting a ballot for a third-party candidate, but he didn’t want to lodge a protest vote. He wants to make sure Trump doesn’t return to the White House.  

 

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