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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45660

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3 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I mean, I don’t think it will be a blowout either. I’m not sure what is getting everyone (not just here) so positive that this will be a Harris blowout. 

276-262 sounds about right.

Because in a sane world it would be a Reagan-Mondale blowout, so anything that starts to show that maybe SOME people are sane is like a shot of hopium adrenaline.

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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How does one go about sussing out the differences between Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and Indiana?

My two cents:

I think Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin are similar in Midwestern Popularism, but most notable in Minnesota. Not only do you get Walz as governor, but Jesse Ventura 20 years ago. The Dems in Minnesota are officially called DFL : “Democratic - farm - labor”. But, a lot of the same feel in parts of Iowa and Wisconsin, then lesser so as you get into Nebraska, Kansas…

But over the last 30 years, national politics has preempted state politics. There used to be prolife Dems in Nebraska who could win elections. Now, there aren’t any left and they wouldn’t win elections if they did exist. The Obamacare vote doomed the last Nebraskan Senator. The “all politics is local” isn’t really true anymore in the age of syndicated talk radio and cable news.

I think over the last 10 years you are seeing a resurgence of more progressive, common sense movements as a reaction to complete Republican dominance and overreach in places like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska. Hopefully that grows.
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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12447

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18 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

How does one go about sussing out the differences between Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and Indiana?

Spending a lot of time in all of those places (which I have).

Indiana is the outlier.  Rust Belt.  Lot of Southern feel to it - Evangelicals and such.  College hoops is way bigger than college football.  Notre Dame kinda doesn't count.  Lot of the state is forested and rugged with more quarrying, mining, etc in places (although the NW part looks like the western Midwest).  Eastern time zone.  Has pro sports and a majorish city.

The other 3 are really fucking similar.  Lots of Germans.  Lots of Catholics.  Row crop ag.  Very few trees.  Nebraska has more ranching because you can't grow anything in the Sand Hills.  Both college football and basketball are big deals.  Iowa's been more politically moderate over the years, somewhat aligning with it's neighbors to the north and east, but that shifted in '14 (and is hopefully shifting back).  KS and NE both seem to be moderating some too.  None of them have pro sports (although KS has the Chiefs and Royals next door).

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10957

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2 minutes ago, Tuco said:

 The Dems in Minnesota are officially called DFL : “Democratic - farm - labor”. But, a lot of the same feel in parts of Iowa and Wisconsin, then lesser so as you get into Nebraska, Kansas…

 

That's a legacy of Populism in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century that stretched all the way to Texas. Unfortunately, over time we've lost that legacy. A TCU professor that is up my academic tree has a great book on it.

Image result for The People's Revolt Book. Size: 122 x 185. Source: addran.tcu.edu


 

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achooloco

achooloco 1067

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39 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Final Sabato Crystal Ball - 

276 Harris (MI, PA, WI, NV)
262 Trump (GA, NC, AZ)

276-262 was what the models were coalescing towards about 2 weeks ago. 

Damn so if NV is wrong we could be looking at a Final 270 Harris for the win? I’ll take it but  a bit too fucking close for my liking.

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10957

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4 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Spending a lot of time in all of those places (which I have).

Indiana is the outlier.  Rust Belt.  Lot of Southern feel to it - Evangelicals and such.

Southern Indiana and Southern Illinois had a lot of Southern sympathizers during the Civil War.

A woman holds a sword and a shield with "Union" on it and stands in front of three man-headed serpents. Below is written "The Copperhead Party - In Favor of a Vigorous Prosecution of Peace!"

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Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18547

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31 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I only recently learned that women couldn't get a bank account without a man co-signing until like the 1980s.  That is fucking insane.

Speaking for someone who showers every morning in the shadow of a ceramic crab roughly the size of VW bug, perhaps we shouldn't be so hasty about this one.

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30183

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45 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Final Sabato Crystal Ball - 

276 Harris (MI, PA, WI, NV)
262 Trump (GA, NC, AZ)

276-262 was what the models were coalescing towards about 2 weeks ago. 

Maybe hopium, but I don’t see Trump taking all three.   Actually, I might give him Nevada or NC, and that’s all.

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DaysOff

DaysOff 7943

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Damn so if NV is wrong we could be looking at a Final 270 Harris for the win? I’ll take it but  a bit too fucking close for my liking.

Don't like. 270 will be contested in the courts until J6. Need to put a boot on this motherfucker's throat.
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wood

wood 11225

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Seen driving down Congress Ave:

a2fd004432a03de701e74ab45822454f.jpg

And a text chat that just came from one of our German friends - they’re nervous AF:

c8c3f2b50c0172587e388a6ddaede065.jpg
766b4e4b2dd437dac0a8b32d4ccd008c.jpg

Yeah I post regularly in the election thread of a very large UK-based racing board - Autosport. I keep telling them "Y'all chill. We got this", but they're shitting their pants.

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10957

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36 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I only recently learned that women couldn't get a bank account without a man co-signing until like the 1980s.  That is fucking insane.

We still have a shit ton of accounts that never updated their signature card from that era, so you'll have joint accounts that are listed as John Smith and Mrs. John Smith. 

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Royalfan5

Royalfan5 2353

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13 minutes ago, Tuco said:


My two cents:

I think Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin are similar in Midwestern Popularism, but most notable in Minnesota. Not only do you get Walz as governor, but Jesse Ventura 20 years ago. The Dems in Minnesota are officially called DFL : “Democratic - farm - labor”. But, a lot of the same feel in parts of Iowa and Wisconsin, then lesser so as you get into Nebraska, Kansas…

But over the last 30 years, national politics has preempted state politics. There used to be prolife Dems in Nebraska who could win elections. Now, there aren’t any left and they wouldn’t win elections if they did exist. The Obamacare vote doomed the last Nebraskan Senator. The “all politics is local” isn’t really true anymore in the age of syndicated talk radio and cable news.

I think over the last 10 years you are seeing a resurgence of more progressive, common sense movements as a reaction to complete Republican dominance and overreach in places like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska. Hopefully that grows.

George Norris was really the only guy that pulled off peoples populism in Nebraska in a big way. Of course it’s a hell of resume 

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Horndog

Horndog 2226

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7 minutes ago, DaysOff said:


Don't like. 270 will be contested in the courts until J6. Need to put a boot on this motherfucker's throat.

Not to mention the extortion and blackmail efforts to pick off an unfaithful elector or two. 

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Js1

Js1 85257

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Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

Possible genius or maybe random kid who had an incredible hot streak during one election cycle Chaz Nuttycombe (his real name!) predicts 69% chance of Harris win, with 308EVs



 

This is their last go around. They did this as students and correctly predicted all VA Delegate and Senate seats last year. They are shutting down after this 

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Evil Bill Obrien

Evil Bill Obrien 3255

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7 minutes ago, wood said:

Yeah I post regularly in the election thread of a very large UK-based racing board - Autosport. I keep telling them "Y'all chill. We got this", but they're shitting their pants.

I mean this is all pretty much their fault for being a bunch of pricks 300 years ago...

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19100

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1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

My understanding:

SM influencer in nyc has “pet” squirrel

someone alerts local authorities, because squirrel is not allowed to be kept in the…that ain’t legal either. 
 

Authorities confiscate and euthanize squirrel. 
 

trump morons try to use it to rally the troops. 
 

Saw later on that the influencer also does gay porn. 
 

No interest in fact checking any of the above. 

Not in NYC.  That shit happened in Pine City, NY.

 

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Js1

Js1 85257

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10 minutes ago, wood said:

Yeah I post regularly in the election thread of a very large UK-based racing board - Autosport. I keep telling them "Y'all chill. We got this", but they're shitting their pants.

You should tell them their UK-based polling firm, Focaldata, has her winning

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SizzleChest

SizzleChest 8283

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6 hours ago, Js1 said:

She's closing in PA (Allentown, Pittsburgh, Philly) and Walz is closing in Wisconsin and Michigan (La Crosse, Stevens Point, Milwaukee, Detroit)

Trump has the hectic schedule today: Raleigh, Reading, Pittsburgh, Grand Rapids
Vance has La Crosse, Flint, Atlanta, Newtown

The Harris campaign has the more focused schedule.  Trump/Vance are trying to hit every Midwest/east coast swing state, since Trump spent so much other time this past weekend in Virginia and New Mexico

So, it's blue wall centric (HOLD!) and if Georgia and NC happen to pull through all the better?

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Hank_Hill

Hank_Hill 18783

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12 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Speaking for someone who showers every morning in the shadow of a ceramic crab roughly the size of VW bug, perhaps we shouldn't be so hasty about this one.

Man I missed this story originally but have seen it referenced many times, is there a pic of this thing?

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BrickHorn

BrickHorn 18214

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7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

pork tenderloin sammich

Oh damn. I had forgotten about those. Last one I ate was years ago, at the Eagles Club in a dumpy midwest river town. 

Now I’m hungry for a pork tenderloin, a Busch on draft, and some old fashioned blue collar racism. 

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