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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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Just had an interesting conversation with wife. Her: Hey Wednesday I need you to pick our son up Me: ok but be home by 4 because I am going to Chili’s for some internet friends. Her: You are mee

ConferenceRoom
ConferenceRoom

A conversation with my wife: ”We have to go to Chili’s when Kamala wins.” ”…Why?” ”Because that’s what Surly is doing.” ”We have to go to Chili’s because of Surly.” “Yes.”

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quigley

quigley 1377

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Confession: I don’t believe in internal polls.  They don’t have any more knowledge than we do. And there is plenty of incentive to make quality polls for public consumption.  

I going to try to see what, if anything, distinguishes internal and public polling when I have the chance. I will report back.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 103656

Posted
Posted
Problem is, we don't ever see the internal ones to actually see even post mortem how accurate they are.  There is likely some truth to the idea that they miss on things as much as anyone else, but I'm betting they are pretty good.  

The problem is that polling is all over the fucking map. Sure, Poll X is repub biased, but so is Poll Y, and it was pretty accurate in 2020, and Poll Z was pretty accurate in 2022, but its cross tabs look off, etc etc.
We have no idea what’s going to happen.
So why not expect the worst?
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bolverk

bolverk 29104

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3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Confession: I don’t believe in internal polls.  They don’t have any more knowledge than we do. And there is plenty of incentive to make quality polls for public consumption.  

Several months ago, someone with much more insight than me described public polls as providing the overall shape of the election. What internal polls apparently do is hone in on key geographic or demographic indicators in greater detail, helping campaigns understand the voting behavior of very specific groups that they feel are of particular significance.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45226

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Confession: I don’t believe in internal polls.  They don’t have any more knowledge than we do. And there is plenty of incentive to make quality polls for public consumption.  

Counterpoint: there is more incentive to make shit polls that keep people engaged and clicking, thinking it’s a horse race that is going to come down to the wire. 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9612

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:


The problem is that polling is all over the fucking map. Sure, Poll X is repub biased, but so is Poll Y, and it was pretty accurate in 2020, and Poll Z was pretty accurate in 2022, but its cross tabs look off, etc etc.
We have no idea what’s going to happen.
So why not expect the worst?

 

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

Several months ago, someone with much more insight than me described public polls as providing the overall shape of the election. What internal polls apparently do is hone in on key geographic or demographic indicators in greater detail, helping campaigns understand the voting behavior of very specific groups that they feel are of particular significance.

We don’t know shit about fuck.  
 

nice work today, gentlemen. I’ll see you in the AM. 

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Stilicho

Stilicho 1394

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12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Right wing has been spamming social media to freak out Dems and hopefully convince them not to show up tomorrow 

Yeah. It’s getting uglier out there, even on Reddit, more than it has over the last few days. 

I can’t imagine what Leon’s Nazi-Chan looks like right now. 

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Surly Bevo

Surly Bevo 24608

Posted
Posted
Just now, Biff Tannen said:

Counterpoint: there is more incentive to make shit polls that keep people engaged and clicking, thinking it’s a horse race that is going to come down to the wire. 

Yes. Hence, very few polls are done in states not perceived as horse races. If you come out with a couple of polls in a "battleground state" that show x candidate up 6% over y candidate from September on, nobody is interested in your polls anymore as it isn't proving to be much of a battleground.  

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BevoAbyss

BevoAbyss 1972

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Posted (edited)

If Kamala wins, I sure as hell ain't partying at lame ass Chili's. I imagine Brinker Corp is run by a bunch of Trump-loving MBA pricks. Probably lots of SMU grads.

Win or lose, I am going to an immigrant-owned Mexican restaurant and chow on some great food, washed down with tequila.

 

 

Edited by BevoAbyss
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BamaATL

BamaATL 16283

Posted
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1 minute ago, bolverk said:

Several months ago, someone with much more insight than me described public polls as providing the overall shape of the election. What internal polls apparently do is hone in on key geographic or demographic indicators in greater detail, helping campaigns understand the voting behavior of very specific groups that they feel are of particular significance.

The other aspect is that media, and parties themselves are well aware that the public are suckers for polls on anything, and seldom if ever does anyone actually look into things like methodology, who's doing the poll, who paid for it, etc.  "We polled 3 people in the Utah desert about the CHIPS Act, and the results were shocking!"

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F250

F250 28543

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13 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Nerd Alert GIF

My daughter told me some poor kid's dad picked him up in a Cybertruck from school last Friday.

She described his walk to the CT looking like this scene from the Sandlot. Kid's in middle school are horrible, why would someone show up in a Cybertruck to pick up their kid?

f47ec926-9ec9-4e31-b946-7df330b5eb80_tex

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16283

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, F250 said:

My daughter told me some poor kid's dad picked him up in a Cybertruck from school last Friday.

She described his walk to the CT looking like this scene from the Sandlot. Kid's in middle school are horrible, why would someone show up in a Cybertruck to pick up their kid?

f47ec926-9ec9-4e31-b946-7df330b5eb80_tex

Well, I've heard that a lot of middle aged men make poor decisions in a vain attempt to hold on to youth.  

 

But I've only heard about that.  

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bolverk

bolverk 29104

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1 minute ago, F250 said:

My daughter told me some poor kid's dad picked him up in a Cybertruck from school last Friday.

She described his walk to the CT looking like this scene from the Sandlot. Kid's in middle school are horrible, why would someone show up in a Cybertruck to pick up their kid?

Dad was probably a dork who got picked on in middle school. And because he remains a dork, the dad doesn't realize middle school kids will still pick on him (and his poor, poor progeny). 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17254

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3 minutes ago, F250 said:

My daughter told me some poor kid's dad picked him up in a Cybertruck from school last Friday.

She described his walk to the CT looking like this scene from the Sandlot. Kid's in middle school are horrible, why would someone show up in a Cybertruck to pick up their kid?

f47ec926-9ec9-4e31-b946-7df330b5eb80_tex

My 8-year old loves the Cybertruck and thinks it is the coolest vehicle ever. 

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Baboontyme

Baboontyme 2771

Posted
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5 minutes ago, BevoAbyss said:

If Kamala wins, I sure as hell ain't partying at lame ass Chili's. I imagine Brinker Corp is run by a bunch of Trump-loving MBA pricks. Probably lots of SMU grads.

Win or lose, I am going to an immigrant-owned Mexican restaurant and chow on some great food, washed down with tequila.

 

 

yikes-rachel-dratch.gif.5003a7e17b01f0502f003d2d1e288b7b.gif

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F250

F250 28543

Posted
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1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

Well, I've heard that a lot of middle aged men make poor decisions in a vain attempt to hold on to youth.  

 

But I've only heard about that.  

Well, show up driving a Lamborghini Aventador not a Cybertruck.

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16283

Posted
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Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

So when will results actually start being posted? I know it’s likely dependent on state but am I going to be at work watching a livestream from 7am until the next day?

about 45 minutes from now.  

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NAVY

NAVY 6707

Posted
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16 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


The problem is that polling is all over the fucking map. Sure, Poll X is repub biased, but so is Poll Y, and it was pretty accurate in 2020, and Poll Z was pretty accurate in 2022, but its cross tabs look off, etc etc.
We have no idea what’s going to happen.
So why not expect the worst?

 

IMG_3629.gif

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F250

F250 28543

Posted
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10 minutes ago, BevoAbyss said:

If Kamala wins, I sure as hell ain't partying at lame ass Chili's. I imagine Brinker Corp is run by a bunch of Trump-loving MBA pricks. Probably lots of SMU grads.

Win or lose, I am going to an immigrant-owned Mexican restaurant and chow on some great food, washed down with tequila.

Hmmm...

I like this idea. Get trashed on tequila after eating Mexican food and then start visiting MAGA properties while wearing a sombrero.

blazing-saddles.gif

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Js1

Js1 83678

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

So when will results actually start being posted? I know it’s likely dependent on state but am I going to be at work watching a livestream from 7am until the next day?

Dixville Notch at midnight/11pm central. Then roughly 5pm when the first polls in Indiana close (partial state done at 5 central, rest at 6 central)

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Js1

Js1 83678

Posted
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Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

There won’t be any partial state before 5cst?

No, no state can release partial results before polls close. Except the weird Dixville Notch stuff 

Edited by Js1
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