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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
  On 11/5/2024 at 3:56 AM, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Confession: I don’t believe in internal polls.  They don’t have any more knowledge than we do. And there is plenty of incentive to make quality polls for public consumption.  

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I going to try to see what, if anything, distinguishes internal and public polling when I have the chance. I will report back.

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Posted
  On 11/5/2024 at 3:58 AM, BamaATL said:
Problem is, we don't ever see the internal ones to actually see even post mortem how accurate they are.  There is likely some truth to the idea that they miss on things as much as anyone else, but I'm betting they are pretty good.  

The problem is that polling is all over the fucking map. Sure, Poll X is repub biased, but so is Poll Y, and it was pretty accurate in 2020, and Poll Z was pretty accurate in 2022, but its cross tabs look off, etc etc.
We have no idea what’s going to happen.
So why not expect the worst?
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Posted
  On 11/5/2024 at 3:56 AM, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Confession: I don’t believe in internal polls.  They don’t have any more knowledge than we do. And there is plenty of incentive to make quality polls for public consumption.  

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Several months ago, someone with much more insight than me described public polls as providing the overall shape of the election. What internal polls apparently do is hone in on key geographic or demographic indicators in greater detail, helping campaigns understand the voting behavior of very specific groups that they feel are of particular significance.

Posted
  On 11/5/2024 at 3:56 AM, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Confession: I don’t believe in internal polls.  They don’t have any more knowledge than we do. And there is plenty of incentive to make quality polls for public consumption.  

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Counterpoint: there is more incentive to make shit polls that keep people engaged and clicking, thinking it’s a horse race that is going to come down to the wire. 

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Posted
  On 11/5/2024 at 4:02 AM, Brisketexan said:


The problem is that polling is all over the fucking map. Sure, Poll X is repub biased, but so is Poll Y, and it was pretty accurate in 2020, and Poll Z was pretty accurate in 2022, but its cross tabs look off, etc etc.
We have no idea what’s going to happen.
So why not expect the worst?

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  On 11/5/2024 at 4:02 AM, bolverk said:

Several months ago, someone with much more insight than me described public polls as providing the overall shape of the election. What internal polls apparently do is hone in on key geographic or demographic indicators in greater detail, helping campaigns understand the voting behavior of very specific groups that they feel are of particular significance.

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We don’t know shit about fuck.  
 

nice work today, gentlemen. I’ll see you in the AM. 

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Posted
  On 11/5/2024 at 3:49 AM, Js1 said:

Right wing has been spamming social media to freak out Dems and hopefully convince them not to show up tomorrow 

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Yeah. It’s getting uglier out there, even on Reddit, more than it has over the last few days. 

I can’t imagine what Leon’s Nazi-Chan looks like right now. 

Posted
  On 11/5/2024 at 4:02 AM, Biff Tannen said:

Counterpoint: there is more incentive to make shit polls that keep people engaged and clicking, thinking it’s a horse race that is going to come down to the wire. 

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Yes. Hence, very few polls are done in states not perceived as horse races. If you come out with a couple of polls in a "battleground state" that show x candidate up 6% over y candidate from September on, nobody is interested in your polls anymore as it isn't proving to be much of a battleground.  

Posted
  On 11/5/2024 at 4:02 AM, bolverk said:

Several months ago, someone with much more insight than me described public polls as providing the overall shape of the election. What internal polls apparently do is hone in on key geographic or demographic indicators in greater detail, helping campaigns understand the voting behavior of very specific groups that they feel are of particular significance.

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The other aspect is that media, and parties themselves are well aware that the public are suckers for polls on anything, and seldom if ever does anyone actually look into things like methodology, who's doing the poll, who paid for it, etc.  "We polled 3 people in the Utah desert about the CHIPS Act, and the results were shocking!"

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Posted
  On 11/5/2024 at 3:48 AM, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Nerd Alert GIF

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My daughter told me some poor kid's dad picked him up in a Cybertruck from school last Friday.

She described his walk to the CT looking like this scene from the Sandlot. Kid's in middle school are horrible, why would someone show up in a Cybertruck to pick up their kid?

f47ec926-9ec9-4e31-b946-7df330b5eb80_tex

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Posted
  On 11/5/2024 at 4:06 AM, F250 said:

My daughter told me some poor kid's dad picked him up in a Cybertruck from school last Friday.

She described his walk to the CT looking like this scene from the Sandlot. Kid's in middle school are horrible, why would someone show up in a Cybertruck to pick up their kid?

f47ec926-9ec9-4e31-b946-7df330b5eb80_tex

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Well, I've heard that a lot of middle aged men make poor decisions in a vain attempt to hold on to youth.  

 

But I've only heard about that.  

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Posted
  On 11/5/2024 at 4:06 AM, F250 said:

My daughter told me some poor kid's dad picked him up in a Cybertruck from school last Friday.

She described his walk to the CT looking like this scene from the Sandlot. Kid's in middle school are horrible, why would someone show up in a Cybertruck to pick up their kid?

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Dad was probably a dork who got picked on in middle school. And because he remains a dork, the dad doesn't realize middle school kids will still pick on him (and his poor, poor progeny). 

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Posted
  On 11/5/2024 at 4:06 AM, F250 said:

My daughter told me some poor kid's dad picked him up in a Cybertruck from school last Friday.

She described his walk to the CT looking like this scene from the Sandlot. Kid's in middle school are horrible, why would someone show up in a Cybertruck to pick up their kid?

f47ec926-9ec9-4e31-b946-7df330b5eb80_tex

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My 8-year old loves the Cybertruck and thinks it is the coolest vehicle ever. 

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Posted
  On 11/5/2024 at 4:08 AM, BamaATL said:

Well, I've heard that a lot of middle aged men make poor decisions in a vain attempt to hold on to youth.  

 

But I've only heard about that.  

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Well, show up driving a Lamborghini Aventador not a Cybertruck.

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Posted

So the big question now is, if the Dixville Notch results come back with a Harris win, does she call a presser and just declare victory?  It'd be nice to just wrap this thing up.  

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Posted
  On 11/5/2024 at 4:02 AM, Brisketexan said:


The problem is that polling is all over the fucking map. Sure, Poll X is repub biased, but so is Poll Y, and it was pretty accurate in 2020, and Poll Z was pretty accurate in 2022, but its cross tabs look off, etc etc.
We have no idea what’s going to happen.
So why not expect the worst?

Expand  

 

IMG_3629.gif

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Posted
  On 11/5/2024 at 4:06 AM, BevoAbyss said:

If Kamala wins, I sure as hell ain't partying at lame ass Chili's. I imagine Brinker Corp is run by a bunch of Trump-loving MBA pricks. Probably lots of SMU grads.

Win or lose, I am going to an immigrant-owned Mexican restaurant and chow on some great food, washed down with tequila.

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Hmmm...

I like this idea. Get trashed on tequila after eating Mexican food and then start visiting MAGA properties while wearing a sombrero.

blazing-saddles.gif

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Posted (edited)
  On 11/5/2024 at 4:18 AM, BurntOrange&White said:

So when will results actually start being posted? I know it’s likely dependent on state but am I going to be at work watching a livestream from 7am until the next day?

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Dixville Notch at midnight/11pm central. Then roughly 5pm when the first polls in Indiana close (partial state done at 5 central, rest at 6 central)

Edited by Js1


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