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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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Chult86
Chult86

I don't post all that often, though don't mistake that for not enjoying this board's discourse, OUsucks/Texags point and laughs, and quality original content on a frequent basis. I haven't felt t

Clintonaldo
Clintonaldo

Just had an interesting conversation with wife. Her: Hey Wednesday I need you to pick our son up Me: ok but be home by 4 because I am going to Chili’s for some internet friends. Her: You are mee

ConferenceRoom
ConferenceRoom

A conversation with my wife: ”We have to go to Chili’s when Kamala wins.” ”…Why?” ”Because that’s what Surly is doing.” ”We have to go to Chili’s because of Surly.” “Yes.”

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16369

Posted
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1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Don't agree with all his views, but the country would be in a much better place if all Republicans were like Raffensperger.

He's a legit Republican, not whatever the fuck the rest of them are.  He's someone I disagree with, but I do respect him for his actions.  Disagreement can be healthy, so I don't hate him, or people of his ilk.  Now the maga fucksticks, they can die in a fire.  

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South Austin

South Austin 51705

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I admittedly don't know anything about Raffensperger's political positions as a Republican.  But I'm not going to suck his dick simply because he follows the rules, which is what are elected officials are fucking supposed to do.  

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16369

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1 minute ago, South Austin said:

I admittedly don't know anything about Raffensperger's political positions as a Republican.  But I'm not going to suck his dick simply because he follows the rules, which is what are elected officials are fucking supposed to do.  

Well, may I ask how many Republicans you know that do follow the rules?  

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Blotto

Blotto 23297

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1 hour ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

On our AM trader call, our chief economist basically said a Trump victory would hasten the demise of the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency due to the fall of the US Economy (negative 1.5% GDP in the first year or two). So, if you are an economics only voter, that shoudl be enough to have you pull the lever for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.

Counterpoint: They're eating the dogs. They're eating the cats.

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Js1

Js1 83926

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9 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I am going to be so fascinated to see the percentage of registered GOP voters who voted democrat this election when today is over.

One thing for sure - 

Everyone flipped out about O'Malley-Dillon saying something yesterday that results in one state do not translate to other states.  A lot of people thought she was talking about the Selzer poll and just because Harris may do well in Iowa, it may not translate to Wisconsin/Michigan/Penn.

I took it the other way, like 2020 and 2022 - Florida will count fast, and could go for Trump by a larger margin than 2020, and we will know early, but Florida's vote is not at all indicative of how GA/NC/MI/WI/PA will go.  We saw this in 2022 - DeSantis won that race by like a billion points and Dems still had a great night across the upper midwest, NV, AZ, etc. 

Same with 2020 - Trump won by FL by 2x his 2016 margin, but that did not translate into winning MI, WI, PA, NV, he lost AZ, he lost GA, his NC margin was cut in half from 2016.

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C-Man

C-Man 26781

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IMG_6358.thumb.jpeg.0b726a8e41b1f956586db4b0f28b718e.jpeg
 
Suited up and ready for the day

I’m wearing my Philadelphia Flyers t-shirt today before putting on work clothes. Will wear my “Raised on hose water and ready to save America — Gen Xers for Kamala” shirt tonight.

giphy.gif
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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15289

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So yesterday I closed on the sale of a house.  Very long story--was supposed to be Mrs.LL's dream house, but interest rates happened and the timing and shit and now it just makes more sense to renovate the current house.  So today, I have quite a lot of money sitting in cash in my brokerage account.

Here's the thing--Wall Street doesn't understand shit about politics.  Mrs.LL was in finance for a long time, and ever since we've been together, I've always been shocked by how little Wall Street understands politics.  So much of their business is dictated by what happens in Washington, but they understand fuck-all about it.  And right now, Wall Street is expecting 1) a Trump win (and the inflationary and recessionary dangers that come with that) and 2) a period of uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the election as happened in 2020.

Based on everything we know, I strongly expect neither of those things.  And I think the market is going to react very favorably to 1) No Trump, and 2) certainty (irrespective of who wins) when the race is called shortly after midnight CST.  So fuck your prediction thread--I'm putting my money where my mouth is.  When the market goes up 5% tomorrow on the strength of a definitive Kamala win, the first round at Chili's is on me.

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Js1

Js1 83926

Posted
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Ralston confirming on MSNBC what we suspected -

Clark's mail is backed up, like me after a trip to Fogo de Chao.  Hence why the mail numbers have been very sluggish. 

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Gap03

Gap03 3196

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Think this was already posted, but just a reminder of how results are expected to roll in (with additional color at the link):

When to Expect Election Results in Each State - The New York Times

Short version: if Harris isn't dominating, it will probably be Wednesday or later before a winner is declared.  Hopefully, Harris wins Georgia and North Carolina (who should have most votes counted quickly) and has a solid enough lead to declare Michigan early - which would put Harris at 273.  Wisconsin and Pennsylvania results will probably come next, with Arizona and Nevada bringing up the rear.  God forbid we have to wait for those assholes again.

 

Quote

When to Expect Results in Each State on Election Night, and Beyond

 

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Firemans4Horn

Firemans4Horn 17327

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Just now, Js1 said:

Ralston confirming on MSNBC what we suspected -

Clark's mail is backed up, like me after a trip to Fogo de Chao.  Hence why the mail numbers have been very sluggish. 


Louis DeJoy is sitting in the corner jerking it over this news. 

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Js1

Js1 83926

Posted
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Just now, Firemans4Horn said:


Louis DeJoy is sitting in the corner jerking it over this news. 

It sounds like the backup is with the county office processing them and inputting them into the spreadsheet, not the postal service.

They are in the county office, but there's not enough staff or machines to process. 

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Gap03

Gap03 3196

Posted
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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Ralston confirming on MSNBC what we suspected -

Clark's mail is backed up, like me after a trip to Fogo de Chao.  Hence why the mail numbers have been very sluggish. 

Clark County at it again ...

 

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David Dennison

David Dennison 17816

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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Ralston confirming on MSNBC what we suspected -

Clark's mail is backed up, like me after a trip to Fogo de Chao.  Hence why the mail numbers have been very sluggish. 

To live in a country where no one gives fuck all about the mail in Clark County, NV on election day.

#DareToDream

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Js1

Js1 83926

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Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

A state with under 2 million registered voters takes the longest, it's insane.

And a state famous for it's 24 hour industries. Like put all the casino people into tabulating ballots. It would be done in a day. 

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14280

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7 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So yesterday I closed on the sale of a house.  Very long story--was supposed to be Mrs.LL's dream house, but interest rates happened and the timing and shit and now it just makes more sense to renovate the current house.  So today, I have quite a lot of money sitting in cash in my brokerage account.

Here's the thing--Wall Street doesn't understand shit about politics.  Mrs.LL was in finance for a long time, and ever since we've been together, I've always been shocked by how little Wall Street understands politics.  So much of their business is dictated by what happens in Washington, but they understand fuck-all about it.  And right now, Wall Street is expecting 1) a Trump win (and the inflationary and recessionary dangers that come with that) and 2) a period of uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the election as happened in 2020.

Based on everything we know, I strongly expect neither of those things.  And I think the market is going to react very favorably to 1) No Trump, and 2) certainty (irrespective of who wins) when the race is called shortly after midnight CST.  So fuck your prediction thread--I'm putting my money where my mouth is.  When the market goes up 5% tomorrow on the strength of a definitive Kamala win, the first round at Chili's is on me.

Well done attempt at a humble brag.

You are right, though.  I'm surprised how little legit billionaires know about politics when they come on CNBC.  (I have that on all day.)  Hell, Wall Street knows very little about economic predictions.  They spent two whole years predicting a recession that never came and here we are.

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dcbc

dcbc 14298

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Just now, Js1 said:

And a state famous for it's 24 hour industries. Like put all the casino people into tabulating ballots. It would be done in a day. 

Or a couple of regards to do the counting.

 

2269.jpg?width=620&dpr=1&s=none&crop=non

 

 

 

hangover-blackjack.jpg

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9655

Posted
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9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Ralston confirming on MSNBC what we suspected -

Clark's mail is backed up, like me after a trip to Fogo de Chao.  Hence why the mail numbers have been very sluggish. 

I was kinda wondering. I mailed a tax return last month and only got my return receipt yesterday.  I think the mail is sloooow rn.

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26027

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24 minutes ago, BearSchlong said:

former country club R.

I have a country club story.

Grandaddy loved golf and would caddy at the old course in Selma Alabama when he was a boy. He seems to have been pretty good at it and other golfers liked him.

After the big war there was a new country club west of town. Grandaddy (electrician now) helped build it, in fact doing electrical work is how he paid his dues. He kept on winning golf trophies and hobnobbing with golfers from out of town.

Then he got sick. Couldn't work. Country club let him know he would no longer be a member. OK, he was more busy trying to get well.

There was a golf tournament and so he went to the club to see his buddies. While there, he went inside to the bathroom to take a leak. One young member gave him hell for not being a member.

Grandaddy died. The last day he was alive, he took his clubs out into the front yard and knocked golf balls way out into the field across the road.

Fast forward to 2023. A tornado is bearing into town from the west, knocking the tops off houses down that same road. Grandaddy's daughter, my mom, is huddled inside the house he built for his family. It skips her. About a mile farther east sits the country club, probably still has the lights running off Grandaddy's wiring.

The tornado FLATTENS that place.

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Js1

Js1 83926

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I take back anything nice I said about DDHQ - their main guy is on twitter claiming Nevada is 100% going for Trump because "there's not many ballots left to be dropped off in Clark" - when THE guy in Nevada just went on TV and said there's a gigantic backlog of mail in Clark County, waiting to be processed.

Be careful, y'all - people are going to interpret (or misinterpret) data as they see fit today. 

Lot of hot takes for pre-noon turnouts, which are traditionally more GOP-leaning.  Don't fall into the Wasserman's dooming about 12pm turnouts that turned around pretty quickly by the end of the day

 

(ended up being a 10k, 3.5% loss, versus Dave dooming it would be a blowout) 

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Js1

Js1 83926

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Just now, GreenspointTexas said:

How/why isnt today a national holiday every 4 years?

Because then more people would vote and the national GOP would never allow that.

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quigley

quigley 1382

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15 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:


Louis DeJoy is sitting in the corner jerking it over this news. 

how the fuck does that guy still have a job?

10 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

A state with under 2 million registered voters takes the longest, it's insane.

hookers as a percent of the population

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