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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

Posted
Posted
Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I saw the ad. I meant the accusation that he caused his wife’s suicide.  He’s a piece of shit but that’s quite a claim. 

I've read that before not just with that post, as to it's veracity, I don't know.  

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

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I wonder why they left some other Kennedy nostalgia out for the ad, they could have had some more fun with it.  You know, like Rose getting lobotomized.  Or Ted leaving a woman drowning in a car.  They could have had some fun prohibition car chases with Joe and his mob buddies making his fortune.  

You know, maybe the Kennedy legacy isn't what he thinks it is.  

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19458

Posted
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To be fair, Bobby Kennedy was a brilliant, passionate, and dedicated public servant.  He would have changed the course of our nation for the better.  Maria Shriver is also a fantastic person.  Every single other one of them is a heinous piece of shit.  In some cases, it's not all on them-their were born into a scrutinizing limelight.  But for the most part, fuck 'em.  This Junior is literally borderline fucking insane.  

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 11065

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4 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

To be fair, Bobby Kennedy was a brilliant, passionate, and dedicated public servant.  He would have changed the course of our nation for the better.  Maria Shriver is also a fantastic person.  Every single other one of them is a heinous piece of shit.  In some cases, it's not all on them-their were born into a scrutinizing limelight.  But for the most part, fuck 'em.  This Junior is literally borderline fucking insane.  

Whatever happened to Sargent Shriver? Is he still with them? You don't hear much about him these days. Is he out of the loop?

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gmr548

gmr548 16702

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On 2/10/2024 at 6:15 PM, Js1 said:

Anyone who still claims the media is biased towards democrats should be kneed in the balls 

That is absolutely my takeaway from the past week or two in the news cycle.

I mean, in reality the truth has been evident for a while but the way Biden and Trump have been covered in recent weeks really lays it bare. I mean, for fuck's sake, Trump justsaid he would encourage Russia to attack NATO allies and it is barely news.

The establishment "liberal" media are happy to prop Trump up for eyeballs, that is their real allegiance. 

2 minutes ago, South Austin said:

He was a pretty substandard recruiter. Our WR talent dropped over the course of his time on Mack’s staff.

Jeff Bridges Reaction GIF

Don't Football Board the CR.

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Guest

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Posted
Posted (edited)

Lulz. "NATO Weighs Isolation After Trump Outburst"

The NYTimes has become a bit of a caricature, hasn't it.


"U.S. Navy Examines Pacific Strategy After Japanese Flyover of Pearl Harbor"
"President Kennedy Unwell After Car Ride Though Dallas"
"Several Hurt After Planes Fly Off Course in Manhattan"

Edited by FirstTimeCaller
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Js1

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Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

Hopefully Pubs tendency to shun voting by mail continues.  

The current early vote is even better for Dems than it was in 2022 when they barely lose the seat. But don’t worry, if Dems win the seat:

Its a special, it doesn’t matter

You can’t take anything from it for the November 2024

They hated Santos so much, it had to flip, but that doesn’t mean anything for Biden 

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

The current early vote is even better for Dems than it was in 2022 when they barely lose the seat. But don’t worry, if Dems win the seat:

Its a special, it doesn’t matter

You can’t take anything from it for the November 2024

They hated Santos so much, it had to flip, but that doesn’t mean anything for Biden 

Yeah, the good ol' media bias to the left will be in full force, no doubt about it.  The polling shows Suozzi ahead by 4 points.  Biden carried the district with 8 points in 2020, but there is some oddity to this district.  It would be great if Suozzi can win by that 8 point margin, as local races seem to be more competitive than national ones.  

Fingers crossed.  Exceeding that 4 point margin would be a great sign.  

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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59 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Yeah, the good ol' media bias to the left will be in full force, no doubt about it.  The polling shows Suozzi ahead by 4 points.  Biden carried the district with 8 points in 2020, but there is some oddity to this district.  It would be great if Suozzi can win by that 8 point margin, as local races seem to be more competitive than national ones.  

Fingers crossed.  Exceeding that 4 point margin would be a great sign.  

I want to win the seat just for any sliver of momentum it might bring and to make it harder for repubs to impeach Mayorkas. I’m not a big fan of Mayorkas or anything. I just like seeing the repubs fail and look incompetent.

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I want to win the seat just for any sliver of momentum it might bring and to make it harder for repubs to impeach Mayorkas. I’m not a big fan of Mayorkas or anything. I just like seeing the repubs fail and look incompetent.

I agree, though I'd point out it doesn't seem they need much help failing and looking incompetent.  

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UTGrad98

UTGrad98 2343

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Posted

I just looked at the recent state polls of Wisc Penn Mich Georgia and I am not encouraged at all. Inflation/cost of living is a huge Biden problem where most voters either dont care or dont want to understand inflation was due to COVID stimulus, war and other supply chain issues. As a country, we absolutely deserve everything we get if Trump is elected again.

My only hope are the polls this cycle arent accounting for Swifties and young pro-choice women much like the 2016 cycle didnt account for hatred, racism and fear from a significantly larger percentage of white people than previously thought.

Hoping the 18-30 year old crowd votes in greater numbers than ever before is a record Ive listened to many times and we all know how that turns out. 

"Heil Trump" I guess.

As a white male, Ill put up the good fight in 2028 when only our votes are counted.

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Js1

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Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

I just looked at the recent state polls of Wisc Penn Mich Georgia and I am not encouraged at all. Inflation/cost of living is a huge Biden problem where most voters either dont care or dont want to understand inflation was due to COVID stimulus, war and other supply chain issues. As a country, we absolutely deserve everything we get if Trump is elected again.

My only hope are the polls this cycle arent accounting for Swifties and young pro-choice women much like the 2016 cycle didnt account for hatred, racism and fear from a significantly larger percentage of white people than previously thought.

Hoping the 18-30 year old crowd votes in greater numbers than ever before is a record Ive listened to many times and we all know how that turns out. 

"Heil Trump" I guess.

As a white male, Ill put up the good fight in 2028 when only our votes are counted.

The polls have done nothing but be wrong for a while now

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
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34 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

I just looked at the recent state polls of Wisc Penn Mich Georgia and I am not encouraged at all. Inflation/cost of living is a huge Biden problem where most voters either dont care or dont want to understand inflation was due to COVID stimulus, war and other supply chain issues. As a country, we absolutely deserve everything we get if Trump is elected again.

My only hope are the polls this cycle arent accounting for Swifties and young pro-choice women much like the 2016 cycle didnt account for hatred, racism and fear from a significantly larger percentage of white people than previously thought.

Hoping the 18-30 year old crowd votes in greater numbers than ever before is a record Ive listened to many times and we all know how that turns out. 

"Heil Trump" I guess.

As a white male, Ill put up the good fight in 2028 when only our votes are counted.

Polls don’t mean Jack this far out anyway.

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Polls don’t mean Jack this far out anyway.

I'm not convinced that even the most reputable prognosticators like Cook don't have at least a twinge of right bias.  Pretty much all the mainstream news polls certainly have that.  

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, Js1 said:

The polls have done nothing but be wrong for a while now

 

12 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Polls don’t mean Jack this far out anyway.

 

12 hours ago, BamaATL said:

I'm not convinced that even the most reputable prognosticators like Cook don't have at least a twinge of right bias.  Pretty much all the mainstream news polls certainly have that.  

i'm afraid we are going to have 9 months of hopium posts regarding polls. 

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Js1

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11 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

 

 

i'm afraid we are going to have 9 months of hopium posts regarding polls. 

I’m afraid we are going to have 9 months of bed wetting posts regarding polls

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 23092

Posted
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

 

 

i'm afraid we are going to have 9 months of hopium posts regarding polls. 

It's a "tell me" vs "show me" debate.

How many polls have shown Dem doom over the last four years?  Damn near all of them?

How many elections have Dems overperformed?  Damn near all of them?

I understand what the polls are telling me but I really feel like people are bending themselves into a pretzel to ignore the very real election results that contradict them.

Edited by Chuckie Finster
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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

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5 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

How many polls have shown Dem doom over the last four years?  80%+?

that's certainly not true of biden v trump 2020.  that one had all the blue wall states being +7% or so.  every one ended up being a nail biter.  i think the median result in the electoral college was something like biden 360 EVs.

Quote

According to the report, national polls of the presidential race conducted in the final two weeks of the election were off by an average of 4.5 percentage points, while the state polls were off by just over 5 points. Most of the error was in one direction: Looking at the vote margin, the national polls were too favorable to now-President Joe Biden by 3.9 points, and the state polls were 4.3 points too favorable for Biden.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/18/pollsters-2020-polls-all-wrong-500050

 

2022 i think was the first one that generally shaded more red than actual.  i think 2016 and 2020 the polls were shaded blue.

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Js1

Js1 87214

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

that's certainly not true of biden v trump 2020.  that one had all the blue wall states being +7% or so.  every one ended up being a nail biter.  i think the median result in the electoral college was something like biden 360 EVs.

This was big time a phenomenon of who was staying home (Dems) during Covid and who didn’t give a shit (Republicans) 

Edited by Js1
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Posted

The polls I've seen suck, and I don't understand it. The only thing I can think of is this is my first time living through inflation. People fucking HATE it. They'd rather unemployment be at 10% than have prices rise 5%. I think Republicans are also masters of pinning any issue with simple messaging that's repeated by the entire party and then repeated by media/social media ad nauseum.

Stock market is at all-time highs, oil production at all time highs, unemployment at lows... Trump would be DOMINATING the messaging on that by repeating it over and over and over. Seems like we barely hear a peep out of the Biden admin. Even though it's not his style, Biden needs to take a page and get wild with this as we are in a new era:

"Your president has led the stock market to all time highs! Your 401k balance is soaring thanks to what we're doing."

"U.S. oil production his a record high. No president -- including Trump -- has seen production like this."

And he needs everyone blasting this messaging everywhere.

 

 

 

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Js1

Js1 87214

Posted
Posted
Just now, FirstTimeCaller said:

The polls I've seen suck, and I don't understand it.

The thing is, they’re bad. And by bad, I mean methodology. Trump is not going to go 50/50 with 18-34 or win 25% of black voters or 45% of Hispanics.

Sampling and methodology has been awful for almost 10 years now. Hell, call it 12 because the polls sure looked like Obama was going to lose. He won comfortably 

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

The polls I've seen suck, and I don't understand it. The only thing I can think of is this is my first time living through inflation. People fucking HATE it. They'd rather unemployment be at 10% than have prices rise 5%. I think Republicans are also masters of pinning any issue with simple messaging that's repeated by the entire party and then repeated by media/social media ad nauseum.

Stock market is at all-time highs, oil production at all time highs, unemployment at lows... Trump would be DOMINATING the messaging on that by repeating it over and over and over. Seems like we barely hear a peep out of the Biden admin. Even though it's not his style, Biden needs to take a page and get wild with this as we are in a new era:

"Your president has led the stock market to all time highs! Your 401k balance is soaring thanks to what we're doing."

"U.S. oil production his a record high. No president -- including Trump -- has seen production like this."

And he needs everyone blasting this messaging everywhere.

 

 

 

The good news is, the Biden campaign will have the funds to do exactly this, the opposition isn't going to have this ability.  

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 23092

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3 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

"Your president has led the stock market to all time highs! Your 401k balance is soaring thanks to what we're doing."

I had a ton of friends make some sort of "I really don't like Trump but man, it's hard to argue with my 401k" comments in 2018/2019.

They are suspiciously silent now.

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Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

The good news is, the Biden campaign will have the funds to do exactly this, the opposition isn't going to have this ability.  

It's not funds. I know the Republican messaging... because they all say the same damn thing. Gavin Newsom seems to be the only one out there touting Biden's accomplishments. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I had a ton of friends make some sort of "I really don't like Trump but man, it's hard to argue with my 401k" comments in 2018/2019.

They are suspiciously silent now.

And yet...
 

 

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