2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

Aqua Buddha · July 2

Just now, DixonHur said:

Gretchen is the best bet because Booker could easily be cast as an East Coast Elite. Plus NJ is likely safe. Michigan is a midwestern swing state, as are most of its neighbors... and I like her chances with suburban women.

Booker would appease black voters who might be upset about dumping Harris so there's that. Also younger and telegenic. Otherwise, she'd go with Breshears out of Kentucky.

But yes, suburban college educated women are the motherland of demographic groups even thought they never get counted like various ethnicities. There are tens of millions of them and they vote like 100% of the time. A lot of them are borderline horrified at what the Republican Party has become, even the Republicans themselves.

Rex Kramer · July 2

1 minute ago, DixonHur said:

Gretchen is the best bet because Booker could easily be cast as an East Coast Elite. Plus NJ is likely safe. Michigan is a midwestern swing state, as are most of its neighbors... and I like her chances with suburban women.

Booker as a running mate would be extremely strategic as would getting Whitmer to run to shore up a swing state. Not replacing him is conceding the election.

Longhorn_Fan68 · July 2

3 minutes ago, BrickTop said:

I think what a lot of people are missing is that regardless of party’s lot of regular people just want a candidate to vote for that is neither of these two. I’d vote for Obama again in a heartbeat. As pissed as that makes some people when you get down to it, it’s pretty easy, a dipshit reality tv star with a heavily checkered past and a guy whose mental competence is now in question.

see? this is why it's hard to take you seriously. checkered past? the dude is a twice impeached (should have been twice convicted) rapist felon former president with 50+ more felony indictments to wade through. the other guy is old. same same, again

Edited July 2 by Longhorn_Fan68

linux · July 2

1 minute ago, Rex Kramer said:

Booker as a running mate would be extremely strategic as would getting Whitmer to run to shore up a swing state. Not replacing him is conceding the election.

What data do you have of this? all the data says otherwise.

StassneyHorn · July 2

3 minutes ago, BrickTop said:

I think what a lot of people are missing is that regardless of party’s lot of regular people just want a candidate to vote for that is neither of these two. I’d vote for Obama again in a heartbeat. As pissed as that makes some people when you get down to it, it’s pretty easy, a dipshit reality tv star with a heavily checkered past and a guy whose mental competence is now in question.

Biden was literally Obama’s butler

Aqua Buddha · July 2

1 minute ago, linux said:

That is not what history says, people would simply argue that they do not know who Whitmer is, GOP would never vote for her and here we are.

The danger is not losing votes, it is people not voting, there are not enough people that have their minds open at this stage.

They'll know who she is. The election is four months away. Good grief. Everyone knows the Hawk Tua girl at this point and she's been famous for a week.

She'll have the biggest media push ever.

troph · July 2

Just now, StassneyHorn said:

Biden was literally Obama’s butler

I think he was way more than that, but I could be wrong.

Longhorn94 · July 2

the economy is great. people are better off than they were under Trump. the only problems we have with the economy are BECAUSE of Trump's policies and presidency. This election will be about a good economy, lowest unemployment in 50 years, WOMEN's RIGHTS, the fucking supreme court, and oh yeah DEMOCRACY. If those issues don't get the same 2020 voters plus a shitload of people who previously supported Trump to switch sides then we deserve the dystopian future that would be in store for us all with another Trump presidency.

this is a stupid fucking argument at this point. Biden has had what many consider to be the most legislatively successful 3.5 years of any president in the last 50 years. He has a booming economy at his back and bright future ahead.

linux · July 2

2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

They'll know who she is. The election is four months away. Good grief. Everyone knows the Hawk Tua girl at this point and she's been famous for a week.

She'll have the biggest media push ever.

She does not, this is fucking unprecedented, the comfort people have to vote for someone is deeply more intimate than I will just click on a youtube video.

Also the media seems to be in the pocket for Trump, they made double the money under him than they did under Biden, they will amplify her weaknesses and call it a public service to our fucking face.

Edited July 2 by linux

BrickTop · July 2

see? this is why it's hard to take you seriously. checkered past? the dude is a twice impeached (should have been twice convicted) rapist felon former president with 50+ more felony indictments to wade through. the other guy is old. same same, again

Because I don’t line out why his past is checkered? Because I don’t bash him as hard as you? I didn’t vote for him in 16 or 20, good enough for you?

Rex Kramer · July 2

4 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I would vote for Obama or Romney in a heartbeat. Amazing we've gone from that level of candidates in 2012 to this shit sandwich. Idiocracy has arrived well ahead of schedule.

Totally agreed.

DixonHur · July 2

1 minute ago, linux said:

would simply argue that they do not know who Whitmer is

People in her state know who she is, people in neighboring states know who she is... and she would connect with independents, like me. She also has a good approval rating in a very purple state.

I bet she'd peel away a statistically significant number of suburban women who aren't MAGA, but would likely not vote, or vote against Biden.

The choice is clear, and entirely up to the Democratic Party. Either ride with Biden and have a ~5% of winning or pick someone like Whitmer and possibly move to a ~15-20% chance.

South Austin · July 2

5 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Biden was literally Obama’s butler

4 minutes ago, troph said:

I think he was way more than that, but I could be wrong.

Vice Butler.

linux · July 2

No shit I would vote for Romney if he was in Biden's place, but Biden got to where he is at by winning elections, the same thing we are panicked on him losing. I was pissed when he crushed South Carolina, the stutterer just wins elections and we want to throw it all away because we are being neurotic and overthinking things.

Rex Kramer · July 2

4 minutes ago, linux said:

What data do you have of this? all the data says otherwise.

Common sense. When has a candidate been replaced 4 months before election? When has a candidate’s severe cognitive decline become apparent to the whole country 4 months before election? Until you have data that accounts for these situations, your data is worthless.

Snake Diggity · July 2

29 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

That’s surprising. Doggett is pretty entrenched so you wouldn’t think he would make this move unless he thought it might have an impact.

Quick analysis of the potential replacements:

Harris: positives: semi-incumbent, qualified, well-known. negatives: black woman would drive opposition turnout, and she doesn’t seem to have the charisma to energize her base; not sure she’d show that well against Trump in a debate.

Whitmer: positives: Governor of a swing state, qualified, would likely show well against Trump in a debate. negatives: not that well known, female so might drive opposition turnout, blacks may not turn out for her, no incumbency

Buttigieg: positives: the most gifted/intelligent politician alive, so would destroy Trump in a debate, lots of upside with potential to win people over with his wit, extremely sharp on policy. negatives: not really qualified, and as a gay man he would be guaranteed to supercharge Trump’s base and extremely likely to turn off the black vote, only very slight incumbency

Newsom: positives: would win a debate against Trump, fairly well-known, qualified. negatives: from a deep blue state which would drive opposition turnout, no incumbency

Others: Pritzker, Beshear, Shapiro, etc.: any of these moderate Democrat leaders could step in, but they would be hard pressed to generate excitement and win swing voters in <120 days due to being relatively unknown

Red Five · July 2

Considering he’s aged like he drank from the wrong grail the last four years…. In five months he’s going to age five years. This is not going to get better. And oh yeah, it’s a four year job.

linux · July 2

Just now, DixonHur said:

People in her state know who she is, people in neighboring states know who she is... and she would connect with independents, like me. She also has a good approval rating in a very purple state.

I bet she'd peel away a statistically significant number of suburban women who aren't MAGA, but would likely not vote, or vote against Biden.

The choice is clear, and entirely up to the Democratic Party. Either ride with Biden and have a ~5% of winning or pick someone like Whitmer and possibly move to a ~15-20% chance.

The last sentence is pure wishcasting without any semblance of reality or historical record, one could argue that female presidential candidates have 0% chance based on history. and like a 1% chance based on primary data.

StassneyHorn · July 2

Just now, South Austin said:

Vice Butler.

5 minutes ago, troph said:

I think he was way more than that, but I could be wrong.

Was doing my best 3 year letterman, who is very funny and highly respected here

BrickTop · July 2

No shit I would vote for Romney if he was in Biden's place, but Biden got to where he is at by winning elections, the same thing we are panicked on him losing. I was pissed when he crushed South Carolina, the stutterer just wins elections and we want to throw it all away because we are being neurotic and overthinking things.

Wasn’t the stutter for me at all, it was the mumbling the facial expressions the loss of train of thought on multiple occasions, the mouth agape, the general projection of feebility.

linux · July 2

Just now, Red Five said:

Considering he’s aged like he drank from the wrong grail the last four years…. In five months he’s going to age five years. This is not going to get better. And oh yeah, it’s a four year job.

This was the exact same argument made in 2020. Biden won't even survive until 2024, much good it did Trump then.

linux · July 2

2 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Common sense. When has a candidate been replaced 4 months before election? When has a candidate’s severe cognitive decline become apparent to the whole country 4 months before election? Until you have data that accounts for these situations, your data is worthless.

Common sense is the death of reason, its like superstition dressed up in nerd glasses.

Gimme data, or give me history not your common sense, the common sense that Donald Trump should have never gotten to this point is why the system was shit and designed to fail.

BrickTop · July 2

This was the exact same argument made in 2020. Biden won't even survive until 2024, much good it did Trump then.

Biden looked pretty good in 2020, projected strength, spoke very well.

Red Five · July 2

This was the exact same argument made in 2020. Biden won't even survive until 2024, much good it did Trump then.

If you can’t see the obvious difference, I don’t know what to tell you.

Hard Times · July 2

19 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

This is exactly why I think he wants to run. He knows he and his family are fucked if Trump is elected, and his ego won't allow him to put that danger in someone else's hands.

That's a pretty selfish reason if it's only about protecting his family. Hopefully, it's also about keeping a fascist out of the White House.

Skipper · July 2

1 minute ago, linux said:

This was the exact same argument made in 2020. Biden won't even survive until 2024, much good it did Trump then.

That argument in 2020 failed because we all watched the debates and saw Biden hold his own. Seriously, take a step back and go watch debate footage from 2020 and from last week. It's not even close to the same Biden.

Skipper · July 2

2 minutes ago, linux said:

Common sense is the death of reason, its like superstition dressed up in nerd glasses.

Gimme data, or give me history not your common sense, the common sense that Donald Trump should have never gotten to this point is why the system was shit and designed to fail.

WTF are you talking about dude. What data or history exists regarding an 80+ year old borderline senile politician running for President? The data doesn't exist because nobody has been dumb enough to try it until now.

linux · July 2

1 minute ago, Red Five said:

If you can’t see the obvious difference, I don’t know what to tell you.

There isn't an obvious difference he is not doing that terror face every day, just for 5 minutes in a fucking debate people that has passed and people are not punishing him for.

If Biden were doing the terror face daily you guys might have a point but all of you are acting like tapper running that tape again and again and again and again, because you rather be right than win.

4th&Five · July 2

and now we have 2!

immamac · July 2

I wasn't kidding earlier about a Biden still being the primary candidate, but with a clear and communicated plan to step down mid term so it's an election for the current administration and cabinet with a transition plan to take effect over the 2025-2026 timeframe. This is the graceful way out, the question then becomes is Kamala the right person to pass the torch to or is it someone else?

None of these other candidates y'all are throwing out there make any fucking sense as president so stop kidding yourselves it needs to be someone that's currently part of the admin and know how to run things the same way as joe with little lost in the transition.

StassneyHorn · July 2

This thread has become a group text of suggesting a place to eat with 20 year old women.

BrickTop · July 2

WTF are you talking about dude. What data or history exists regarding an 80+ year old borderline senile politician running for President? The data doesn't exist because nobody has been dumb enough to try it until now.

I voted for Biden in 2020, he was the symbol of democracy, very inspiring in many ways, this isn’t the same guy, the decline has been sharp and rapid.

aggie08 · July 2

1 minute ago, linux said:

No shit I would vote for Romney if he was in Biden's place, but Biden got to where he is at by winning elections, the same thing we are panicked on him losing. I was pissed when he crushed South Carolina, the stutterer just wins elections and we want to throw it all away because we are being neurotic and overthinking things.

Acknowledging that really old people tend to get older isn't "being neurotic and overthinking things."

As has been said 1000 times, everyone here except Rex is still voting for him. Shit, we may even be able to convince BrickTop. We don't fucking matter. We're asking Joe Public in Arizona--who probably isn't as keyed in to the importance of his vote to preserving our democracy--to vote for someone in severe decline who they're going to hide whenever possible that almost certainly won't be President by the end of their term. That's a big ask.

We'd all LOVE to be proven wrong--that the debate was just a fluke--and he's still relatively sharp for his age.

Red Five · July 2

There isn't an obvious difference he is not doing that terror face every day, just for 5 minutes in a fucking debate people that has passed and people are not punishing him for.
If Biden were doing the terror face daily you guys might have a point but all of you are acting like tapper running that tape again and again and again and again, because you rather be right than win.

What in the holy fuck are you talking about?

Goredho · July 2

https://politicalwire.com/2024/07/02/most-think-democrats-have-better-chance-without-biden/

Most Think Democrats Have Better Chance Without Biden

July 2, 2024 at 12:36 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 485 Comments

A new CNN poll finds three-quarters of voters say Democrats would have a better shot at holding the presidency in 2024 with someone other than Joe Biden at the top of the ticket.

Spoiler

Biden’s approval rating also has hit a new low of 36% following a shaky performance in the first debate.

In a general election matchup, voters nationwide favor Donald Trump over Biden by 6 points, 49% to 43%, identical to the results of CNN’s national poll on the presidential race in April.

The poll also finds Vice President Kamala Harris within striking distance of Trump in a hypothetical matchup: 47% support Trump, 45% Harris, a result within the margin of error that suggests there is no clear leader under such a scenario.

But let’s wait until after the Election to consider what voters think. There will be ample time for it in the gulag.

linux · July 2

1 minute ago, Skipper said:

WTF are you talking about dude. What data or history exists regarding an 80+ year old borderline senile politician running for President? The data doesn't exist because nobody has been dumb enough to try it until now.

I mean the other idiot is borderline 80 as well? your common sense is completely useless because according to you neither Trump nor Biden should be electable but here we are.

Again your common sense is useless, it is not matching up with reality, it is like arguing that quantum mechanics have no common sense hence it is fake, it is loser talk.

DixonHur · July 2

7 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Booker would appease black voters who might be upset about dumping Harris so there's that. Also younger and telegenic.

I think Whitmer is actually younger, but I take your point.

4th&Five · July 2

Just now, BrickTop said:

I voted for Biden in 2020, he was the symbol of democracy, very inspiring in many ways, this isn’t the same guy, the decline has been sharp and rapid.

just like trump. it's not like he's running against a 55 year old. trump has declined as well and is still the POS he's always been.

BrickTop · July 2

Acknowledging that really old people tend to get older isn't "being neurotic and overthinking things."
As has been said 1000 times, everyone here except Rex is still voting for him. Shit, we may even be able to convince BrickTop. We don't fucking matter. We're asking Joe Public in Arizona--who probably isn't as keyed in to the importance of his vote to preserving our democracy--to vote for someone in severe decline who they're going to hide whenever possible that almost certainly won't be President by the end of their term. That's a big ask.
We'd all LOVE to be proven wrong--that the debate was just a fluke--and he's still relatively sharp for his age.

I’m now Joe Public in Colorado, does my vote count?

linux · July 2

1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

Acknowledging that really old people tend to get older isn't "being neurotic and overthinking things."

As has been said 1000 times, everyone here except Rex is still voting for him. Shit, we may even be able to convince BrickTop. We don't fucking matter. We're asking Joe Public in Arizona--who probably isn't as keyed in to the importance of his vote to preserving our democracy--to vote for someone in severe decline who they're going to hide whenever possible that almost certainly won't be President by the end of their term. That's a big ask.

We'd all LOVE to be proven wrong--that the debate was just a fluke--and he's still relatively sharp for his age.

All the polling data says you are wrong and you still want to be proven right, color me unimpressed.

BrickTop · July 2

just like trump. it's not like he's running against a 55 year old. trump has declined as well and is still the POS he's always been.

Agreed, that’s why I said neither.

immamac · July 2

Just now, linux said:

All the polling data says you are wrong and you still want to be proven right, color me unimpressed.

Polls haven't been right about jack shit since like 2010

bolverk · July 2

11 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Neither do those who have been ignoring the warnings for the past 8 years by nominating Clinton and Biden, when the electorate was sending crystal clear signals that they wanted a change.

You don't understand what being an independent means, do you? We have political ideologies that span both parties. We tend to vote for candidates, not parties.

The Dems can bitch about it, and lose, or take our opinions into consideration by putting forth an inspiring candidate and win. Your choice.

5 minutes ago, BrickTop said:

Perfectly stated, it’s not the party it’s the candidate.

It's also the entire administration they bring with them, comprising the leadership of the entire Executive Branch and the direction they steer the entire bureaucratic apparatus. Right now, I believe that's 6,000 or so political appointees who generally believe in good governance. Together, they have a pretty strong track record of competency and running things with a steady hand.

Under Trump, Project 2025 calls for firing and replacing 60,000 nonpolitical professionals with political hacks that must undergo an ideological vetting process to ensure their personal loyalties to a thoroughly corrupt and volatile old man also showing signs of dementia, Donald J. Trump, and they have a pretty clear agenda to tear it all down. They've plainly stated that's their goal; believe them.

*****

This is the first time I've weighed in since the debate, which I studiously avoided because debates have completely devolved into dog-and-pony shows where nothing of substance is discussed anymore. There are also the issues with Biden, who's never been a strong communicator, and with Trump, who is an infuriating, lying blowhard.

Consider the following as y'all contemplate how you're going to go through your decision matrix on voting.

A modern president's job entails:

Choosing a team,
Making decisions with that team, and
Communicating those decisions to the American people

Between the two main candidates, whom do you trust most under the current circumstances, given the 4 years we experienced under the Trump Administration or the 3 1/2 years we experienced under the Biden Administration?

Also, keep in mind that they're both old men, and either of them could croak within the next four years. Which "team" would you trust most to handle a smooth transition to whoever would be elevated from the Vice Presidency?

These are obviously not ideal circumstances, and I certainly wish it were different, but this is where we're at.

Chuckie Finster · July 2

All the polling data says you are wrong and you still want to be proven right, color me unimpressed.

There’s a discussion to be had about how useful polling data is, but the data is not making the argument that you think it is.

BrickTop · July 2

Polls haven't been right about jack shit since like 2010

I still remember 2016, weren’t all the polls heavily skewed towards Clinton?

linux · July 2

Just now, immamac said:

Polls haven't been right about jack shit since like 2010

They have, 538 correctly picked every single senate seat in 2020, including the second round needed in Georgia, they have been terrible in the past, but according to people here Biden should have cratered like he is now polling at 20% or something when he has actually gained a margin of error. That is nowhere near reality.

DixonHur · July 2

12 minutes ago, linux said:

The last sentence is pure wishcasting without any semblance of reality or historical record, one could argue that female presidential candidates have 0% chance based on history. and like a 1% chance based on primary data.

Perhaps, but also perhaps you haven't been listening to the independents on this board clamoring for change. You don't think people waxing poetic about Romney would vote for Whitmer?

Like it or not, we independents are the ones who will determine the outcome of this election.

Hate on us, make fun of us, call us stupid, whatever, but the fact remains.

linux · July 2

Just now, DixonHur said:

Perhaps, but also perhaps you haven't been listening to the independents on this board clamoring for change. You don't think people waxing poetic about Romney would vote for Whitmer?

Like it or not, we independents are the ones who will determine the outcome of this election.

Hate on us, make fun of us, call us stupid, whatever, but the fact remains.

Ironically I am less worried about independents than I am about democrats just crying themselves to sleep and not going to the polls.

SubliminalHorn · July 2

3 minutes ago, linux said:

All the polling data says you are wrong and you still want to be proven right, color me unimpressed.

What data do you have at this point? A couple national polls? Who gives a fuck about those. Biden is underwater in every swing state right now. You want all this fucking data. There is none! We are in uncharted waters. You truly, deep down in your gut, believe Biden is the best chance at beating trump?

'stache · July 2

9 minutes ago, BrickTop said:

Wasn’t the stutter for me at all, it was the mumbling the facial expressions the loss of train of thought on multiple occasions, the mouth agape, the general projection of feebility.

I disagree with your characterization, but even if you are 100% correct, do you really see that as worse than the alternative? Sometimes, this year in particular, it's just as important to vote against someone that it is for someone else. Worst case scenario his very competent cabinet and/or VP do the work for the next 4 years. That should be good enough considering what is happening in this country.

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