2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The thing is, they’re bad. And by bad, I mean methodology. Trump is not going to go 50/50 with 18-34 or win 25% of black voters or 45% of Hispanics.

Sampling and methodology has been awful for almost 10 years now. Hell, call it 12 because the polls sure looked like Obama was going to lose. He won comfortably 

It has been so bad it really calls into question much of the field of political science, and/or its application in our society.  I’d also argue that many poll questions are poorly worded and lack creativity.  Perhaps this is as much a media problem as it is a data analytical problem. 

[GhostOfTomJoad 9323]

1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I had a ton of friends make some sort of "I really don't like Trump but man, it's hard to argue with my 401k" comments in 2018/2019.

They are suspiciously silent now.

They all seem to have moved to "inflation has made all of my gains meaningless."

[Surly Bevo 24908]

I think one of the things on polls that try as they might the pollsters just can't solve is the issue of "who will actually participate in them and how do I normalize for that".  Pre-digital era being polled, surveyed whatever was rare.  I wouldn't say it was an honor but if you were asked to give feedback on an election, a product, service it was generally a fairly rare occurrence and felt somewhat important to participate.  

Now I get surveyed to death on everything.  Buy a screwdriver at Lowe's....get a survey.  Get a haircut....get a survey.  Hell, I got a survey after a routine colonoscopy last month.  People get bludgeoned to death for feedback these days and my instinct tells me a lot have simply checked out unless they have something really fringy to say,  or something to bitch about.  

[Neonmoon 38129]

I want to meet every single person that answered this question. We are talking extra chromosome territory. 

 

Just end the country. Close it up. Idiocracy 

[Red Five 40827]

"Most likely to stare at an eclipse and tell America to inject bleach: Biden 55%, Trump 41%" 

[Underdog 28545]

15 minutes ago, Red Five said:

"Most likely to stare at an eclipse and tell America to inject bleach: Biden 55%, Trump 41%" 

 

1 hour ago, Red Five said:

Lol at "protecting democracy". 

"Most likely to fuck a porn star and attempt a coup: Trump 50%, Biden 50%"

LMAO.?

[HenryJames 66035]

https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-redistricting-republican-democrat-fe0e8c7b96eb55caed5540db8d110759

[HenryJames 66035]

[TexasEd 8066]

23 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

I'm going to use that

[Voldemort86 2259]

36 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-redistricting-republican-democrat-fe0e8c7b96eb55caed5540db8d110759

I’m mildly disappointed, but also glad at the same time the worst maps in US history are finally dead. However, I feel like we are letting them off easy with the Evers map. The GOP would go for the jugular and make it as nasty as possible if we switched positions on this. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

52 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-redistricting-republican-democrat-fe0e8c7b96eb55caed5540db8d110759

Also we probably have to win the next Supreme Court race / hold on to the Supreme Court indefinitely in Wisconsin because I wouldn’t put it past them to reverse it first chance they get.

 

wisconsin republicans are the meanest, nastiest, and shadiest republicans out there. I remember when they tried to help bumbling idiot kanye west get on the ballot in their state when everyone with a brain knows that guy has no business being in politics at all.

Edited February 13 by Voldemort86

[Js1 85271]

None of those things have anything to do with the presidential election or Biden/Trump

[Red Five 40827]

21 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

I'm going to use that

Yoda doesn't even talk right most of the time. Just listen to that fucking shit. 

[South Austin 52448]

1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Yoda doesn't even talk right most of the time. Just listen to that fucking shit. 

Listen I will.

[StassneyHorn 6573]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

None of those things have anything to do with the presidential election or Biden/Trump

Serves them right for starting this thread in January for a November election. I’ve been holding off on the Texas Primary thread just to prove a point that Trump fever is dead. 
 

 

[tx 3 putt 76868]

Fucking lovely ….

 

[Neonmoon 38129]

Wait until Congress does the same

[David Dennison 18845]

23 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Fucking lovely ….

 

Don't care, not a law.

[Js1 85271]

2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Don't care, not a law.

Also probably wouldn't pass and would 100% be vetoed.  Sounds illegal AF anyhow - the amendments to the Electoral Count Act already declared that only the Electors provided by the governor or SOS can be counted.  And both of those are Dems. 

But sure sounds like GOP voters don't need to show up in November.  He's already won! No need to show up. 

[StassneyHorn 6573]

The 2024 election will be a test of which party loses the fewest voters from 2020 COVID election. Record breaking numbers occurred everywhere that cycle and will not happen again outside of a few states. Dem states expanded access to the ballot and largely kept it, Republicans have done everything to stop it. The states needed to win have all expanded access I believe. Democrats are having their third straight all or nothing heart attack election with Trump and resounding midterm wins that has influenced two generations of engaged, young, and now CONSISTENT voters.

The turnout myth of Donald Trump is not proven in Texas. Feel free to disagree. Defeatism without numbers is just pigeon talk.
In 2016 his first year on top ballot, Republicans in Texas only showed a 3% gain in voters from 2012. Democrats the same year had a 17.2% growth in voters.
In Covid year 2020, Republicans increased turnout in the state by 25.7% for Donald Trump, however Democrats increased turnout by 35.62%. 

In fact if you look at the gain in voters from Presidential from 2000 to 2020 in Texas you would say the side with the most momentum and team you want to hitch a future to is D. I even used growth cycle for sales ops and rev ops nerds.

 

[Brisketexan 105057]

44 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Fucking lovely ….

 

When the flat-out authoritarian, anti-American, anti-democracy party tells you EXACTLY who they are, though....we should listen.

And we should treat authoritarian traitors exactly as we would treat them if they were proclaiming their intent to do all of this stuff while shouting "allahu akbar."  A fascist terrorist is a fascist terrorist, doesn't matter if he's speaking arabic of redneck.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

sounds a little pyramid scheme-y to me.  you run out of people eventually.  

2008 -

Percent of Turnout to Registered

59.50

2012-

Percent of Turnout to Registered Voters

58.58

2016 -

Percent of Turnout to Registered

59.39%

2020 -

Percent of Turnout to Registered

66.73%

[StassneyHorn 6573]

Texas has the most favorable demographics in the pipeline for D growth.  

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/08/12/texas-2020-census/

https://www.texastribune.org/2023/06/21/census-texas-hispanic-population-demographics/

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

37 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Don't care, not a law.

And this is the Democrats' mistake.  Of course we all know that this is merely a performative bit that has no bearing on reality, but Dems should take this gift and message the hell out of it.  "ARIZONA LAWMAKERS ATTEMPTING TO DISREGARD THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE" is a technically true headline that will catch the eye of low-info voters.

Republicans know that 95% of the stuff they yell about is inconsequential, but that never stops them.  And that's why they always seem to win the messaging war.

[YGIFS 19449]

Well, that's a fucking weird set of resolutions in Arizona:  Boy Scout of the Year, Changing the State Flower, and Democracy Upheaval for Trump.  Totally tracks.

They're litmus testing shit with ballot initiatives, resolutions, and court delays in performative theatrics as a beta-test for what they can really do between November 2024-January 2025.  This is gonna get weird.

[sasquatch69 596]

23 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Texas has the most favorable demographics in the pipeline for D growth.  

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/08/12/texas-2020-census/

https://www.texastribune.org/2023/06/21/census-texas-hispanic-population-demographics/

And this predicted pattern is why I think we'll see the attempts to disenfranchise and gerrymander these emerging voters will continue to ramp up in coming years.  It's going to get worse before it gets better.

[Zonahorn 8079]

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

Fucking lovely ….

 

I may have mentioned it before, but I’m going to keep saying it; The AZ GOP is insane.

[atomheartbevo 89625]

56 minutes ago, Js1 said:

But sure sounds like GOP voters don't need to show up in November.  He's already won! No need to show up. 

15 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Well, that's a fucking weird set of resolutions in Arizona:  Boy Scout of the Year, Changing the State Flower, and Democracy Upheaval for Trump.  Totally tracks.

They're litmus testing shit with ballot initiatives, resolutions, and court delays in performative theatrics as a beta-test for what they can really do between November 2024-January 2025.  This is gonna get weird.

Sounds like they are spooked about something.

[pearlandhorn 3269]

On 2/13/2024 at 9:53 AM, FirstTimeCaller said:

The polls I've seen suck, and I don't understand it. The only thing I can think of is this is my first time living through inflation. People fucking HATE it. They'd rather unemployment be at 10% than have prices rise 5%. I think Republicans are also masters of pinning any issue with simple messaging that's repeated by the entire party and then repeated by media/social media ad nauseum.

Stock market is at all-time highs, oil production at all time highs, unemployment at lows... Trump would be DOMINATING the messaging on that by repeating it over and over and over. Seems like we barely hear a peep out of the Biden admin. Even though it's not his style, Biden needs to take a page and get wild with this as we are in a new era:

"Your president has led the stock market to all time highs! Your 401k balance is soaring thanks to what we're doing."

"U.S. oil production his a record high. No president -- including Trump -- has seen production like this."

And he needs everyone blasting this messaging everywhere.

 

 

 

[gmr548 16576]

2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

Fucking lovely ….

 

This will be forgotten by the start of next week but if anything it will help Biden. MAGA election denying has been a huge loser in AZ. The more discussed it is the better. It's also a non-binding resolution that has no teeth, likely would not get through AZ's very closely divided legislature (31-29 House, 16-14 Senate), and is DOA on the Governor's desk. Beyond the actual substance of the election integrity issue, it's easy to point to this and remind voters the GOP is wasting their time on pointless nonsense instead of sending Hobbsbills that might actually accomplish something.

1 hour ago, YGIFS said:

Well, that's a fucking weird set of resolutions in Arizona:  Boy Scout of the Year, Changing the State Flower, and Democracy Upheaval for Trump.  Totally tracks.

They're litmus testing shit with ballot initiatives, resolutions, and court delays in performative theatrics as a beta-test for what they can really do between November 2024-January 2025.  This is gonna get weird.

 

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Sounds like they are spooked about something.

They are spooked because AZ has continued to import young people and middle class families priced out of SoCal and they've started losing elections. The state is at the tossup stop right now given the political environment but it's obvious AZ is on the same bus line as Nevada and Colorado were in the 2000's.

[Rimbo 25911]

The problem I have isn't with the prior polls. It's when a Democrat trounces a Republican in a solidly Republican district, and AFTER the election, the NYTimes actually prints this kind of thing:

1. "exceedingly close finish"

2. "reasons for optimism" for the GOP

It's literally "this is why this is bad for Biden." Except it's not satire. It's real.

[Voldemort86 2259]

12 hours ago, gmr548 said:

This will be forgotten by the start of next week but if anything it will help Biden. MAGA election denying has been a huge loser in AZ. The more discussed it is the better. It's also a non-binding resolution that has no teeth, likely would not get through AZ's very closely divided legislature (31-29 House, 16-14 Senate), and is DOA on the Governor's desk. Beyond the actual substance of the election integrity issue, it's easy to point to this and remind voters the GOP is wasting their time on pointless nonsense instead of sending Hobbsbills that might actually accomplish something.

 

They are spooked because AZ has continued to import young people and middle class families priced out of SoCal and they've started losing elections. The state is at the tossup stop right now given the political environment but it's obvious AZ is on the same bus line as Nevada and Colorado were in the 2000's.

Nevada and Georgia are trending our way. Don’t think it’s able to be stopped or reversible in anyway either. Thank god for that too because the same trends have put Ohio, Florida, and Iowa pretty much totally out of reach for the dems.

[Hard Times 302]

Even Putin prefers Biden. This is over before it starts.

Putin says Russia prefers Biden to Trump because he is 'more experienced and predictable' (msn.com)

[South Austin 52448]

10 minutes ago, Hard Times said:

Even Putin prefers Biden. This is over before it starts.

Putin says Russia prefers Biden to Trump because he is 'more experienced and predictable' (msn.com)

[Radical Larry 28540]

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Y’all, this must be devastating for Trump, especially on Valentine’s Day.

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20390]

5 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Nevada and Georgia are trending our way. Don’t think it’s able to be stopped or reversible in anyway either. Thank god for that too because the same trends have put Ohio, Florida, and Iowa pretty much totally out of reach for the dems.

I don't get Iowa. I've spent a lot of time there.  It may just be self-selection, but the people I know are liberal Lutherans and Episcopalians of the Minnesota bent.

[Bozo_Casanova 26434]

19 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Texas has the most favorable demographics in the pipeline for D growth.  

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/08/12/texas-2020-census/

https://www.texastribune.org/2023/06/21/census-texas-hispanic-population-demographics/

Fool’s gold. 

Edited February 15 by Bozo_Casanova

[Bozo_Casanova 26434]

7 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

I don't get Iowa. I've spent a lot of time there.  It may just be self-selection, but the people I know are liberal Lutherans and Episcopalians of the Minnesota bent.

Real simple- at the national level Democratic messaging doesn’t play in rural areas and Iowa is very white and psychologically very rural and agrarian in all but its most urban areas. Iowa has more in common politically with the Dakotas than it does with even Minnesota, let alone Georgia. 

Edited February 15 by Bozo_Casanova

[MonkeyDoughnut 10227]

4 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

I don't get Iowa. I've spent a lot of time there.  It may just be self-selection, but the people I know are liberal Lutherans and Episcopalians of the Minnesota bent.

I've got family there, they say immigration/border issue is top issue there. Very anti-immigrant crowd, fear of changing the American way as they know it resonating loudly.  It's the mass out of control immigration that concerns them most.

[locodos 5387]

4 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

I've got family there, they say immigration/border issue is top issue there. Very anti-immigrant crowd, fear of changing the American way as they know it resonating loudly.  It's the mass out of control immigration that concerns them most.

You've got to remember that these are just simple farmers. These are people of the land. The common clay of the new West. You know... Fox news enjoyers

[G650 14229]

1 hour ago, Hard Times said:

Even Putin prefers Biden. This is over before it starts.

Putin says Russia prefers Biden to Trump because he is 'more experienced and predictable' (msn.com)

I lol'd

[gmr548 16576]

6 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Nevada and Georgia are trending our way. Don’t think it’s able to be stopped or reversible in anyway either. Thank god for that too because the same trends have put Ohio, Florida, and Iowa pretty much totally out of reach for the dems.

If the realignment sparked by Trump holds, there is ultimately going to be a new blue wall formed in the Sun Belt. NV, AZ, NM, CO, GA, and NC. I'm bearish on it but there's an argument to throw Texas in there at least as a competitive state (wouldn't it be ironic if Trump's border wall was 110 Democratic EVs from CA to TX).

Regardless, Republicans could sweep WI-MI-PA (I am not high on GOP prospects in PA long term) and still not get over the line if they continue to bleed suburban voters in these key states.

[gmr548 16576]

53 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

I've got family there, they say immigration/border issue is top issue there. Very anti-immigrant crowd, fear of changing the American way as they know it resonating loudly.  It's the mass out of control immigration that concerns them most.

Makes sense. Clearly the Iowa economy would be unleashed if only the low-paid immigrants in agriculture, construction, and food processing could just be removed. I mean, there are so many Americans lining up to take those jobs that Iowa has reduced child labor standards. Yep, no labor shortage in Iowa, just mass out of control immigration.

[Snake Diggity 4619]

Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia should be safe blue states by 2032.  I can’t see any blue states trending the opposite way that will counter that.  2028 is probably the last presidential election where a staunch conservative/maga candidate has any chance whatsoever, assuming fair elections still take place by then.

Edited February 15 by Snake Diggity

[Js1 85271]

10 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

If the realignment sparked by Trump holds, there is ultimately going to be a new blue wall formed in the Sun Belt. NV, AZ, NM, CO, GA, and NC. I'm bearish on it but there's an argument to throw Texas in there at least as a competitive state (wouldn't it be ironic if Trump's border wall was 110 Democratic EVs from CA to TX).

Regardless, Republicans could sweep WI-MI-PA (I am not high on GOP prospects in PA long term) and still not get over the line if they continue to bleed suburban voters in these key states.

This is facts, but part of it feels temporary.  Eventually, the climate and water issues are going to send more Democratic-leaning constituencies north into the Midwest/Mid-Atlantic from the South/Sun Belt.   

But for the next 10-20 years, yeah, Dems will have an easier time winning AZ, CO, GA and eventually NC, while seeing some losses in Wisconsin.  Michigan and Pennsylvania seems to be on the way out for the GOP - the Philly suburbs are absolutely sprinting away from the GOP, big time, as are the Detroit suburbs. 

Nevada is always weird, but the Reid machine is still kicking in LV and keeping NV just on the edge of staying blue. 

Edited February 15 by Js1

[gmr548 16576]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

This is facts, but part of it feels temporary.  Eventually, the climate and water issues are going to send more Democratic-leaning constituencies north into the Midwest/Mid-Atlantic from the South/Sun Belt. 

But for the next 10-20 years, yeah, Dems will have an easier time winning AZ, CO, GA and eventually NC, while seeing some losses in Wisconsin.  Michigan and Pennsylvania seems to be on the way out for the GOP - the Philly suburbs are absolutely sprinting away from the GOP, big time, as are the Detroit suburbs. 

Nevada is always weird, but the Reid machine is still kicking in LV and keeping NV just on the edge of staying blue. 

Absolutely temporary. These things go in cycles, just looking at the short to mid-term future under the current paradigm. If it isn't something else beforehand, climate-induced migration will absolutely lead to a new alignment.

[Snake Diggity 4619]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This is facts, but part of it feels temporary.  Eventually, the climate and water issues are going to send more Democratic-leaning constituencies north into the Midwest/Mid-Atlantic from the South/Sun Belt.   

But for the next 10-20 years, yeah, Dems will have an easier time winning AZ, CO, GA and eventually NC, while seeing some losses in Wisconsin.  Michigan and Pennsylvania seems to be on the way out for the GOP - the Philly suburbs are absolutely sprinting away from the GOP, big time, as are the Detroit suburbs. 

Nevada is always weird, but the Reid machine is still kicking in LV and keeping NV just on the edge of staying blue. 

Arizona and Nevada could turn red as people move due to climate/water.  But Georgia is a different animal; it is blue because of Atlanta alone, and I think those voters are less likely to move due to climate.  Without any of GA, PA, and MI, it is extremely hard to plot a path for the GOP, even if AZ and NV flip.

[Js1 85271]

Just now, Snake Diggity said:

Arizona and Nevada could turn red as people move due to climate/water.  But Georgia is a different animal; it is blue because of Atlanta alone, and I think those voters are less likely to move due to climate.  Without any of GA, PA, and MI, it is extremely hard to plot a path for the GOP, even if AZ and NV flip.

If Arizona and Nevada turn red bc of climate, you will see states such as NC, SC, OH and KS become beneficiaries and likely allow MI, PA, WI and MN become safe blue. Kansas in particular, because the suburbs of Johnson County are becoming much more educated and shifting lift. 

[bolverk 29652]

Last weekend, I was fooling around with demographic figures to assess the likelihood that a state would swing Democratic and picked four traits, which, if a high enough share of the population exhibited, would favor going Blue. These are 1) the percentage of adults (25+) with a Bachelor's degree, 2) the percentage of people living in urban areas (as defined by the Census), 3) the percentage of people who are not Anglo (white non-Hispanic), and the percentage of people who are non-Evangelical (used a dated Pew survey). 

After doing some sorting of each and comparing it to the percentage of the vote that Biden got in 2020, I tried to pick the tipping point for each and shaded everything above that blue. If it didn't seem to matter, I left the numbers black. And, if they clearly favored Republicans, I shaded the numbers red.

The overall results composite score in the TOTAL column (sum of each percentage) that should serve as a predictor for the likelihood of voting Democratic holds up pretty well. If a state got 2.40 or greater, then it *should* vote Democratic. If it scored below 2.00, then theoretically, it should be a Republican state, according to these indicators.

It's not perfect because there are some outliers, such as Vermont, Maine, and Utah (the Pew Survey I looked at didn't have Mormon as a religious group). Vermont and Maine are largely rural and very white, but they're both irreligious and educated, especially Vermont.

For the Democrats, Texas scores very well, with our population being pretty urbanized on the scale and very well on non-Anglo. We do so-so on education but poorly on the share of our population that's non-Evangelical. After reflecting on these scores, I think what would tip us into the Democratic column would be more college graduates, as we're already Brown and Black enough.

North Carolina's problems are that it's still pretty rural, White, and Evangelical.

With these four factors, it's pretty easy to see why Iowa and Ohio have gone GOP and why Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia are swing states. Nevada and Arizona *should* be blue from here on out, but the latter needs a few election cycles to prove it.

Texas and Florida, man. Those are the two really tough ones to figure out. They have the numbers to be Democratic.

Edited February 15 by bolverk