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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

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SydneyCarton

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12 hours ago, safe sex said:

There are better baseball movies that don't ask you to connect with heterosexual father issues in order to deeply engage with it

The father issues are the point of the movie, not the baseball. Perhaps the more accurate statement would be "There are better movies about unpacking heterosexual daddy issues that don't try to distract men fome wholesale confronting their fee fees by dabbling in baseball."

It's a great movie. 

6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Manchin announcing that he's not running. I didn't think that he was but it's better for Biden that a half-Dem isn't joining the race.

I guess. After Manchin said he'd consider Romney I was starting to wonder if that wouldn't hurt Donald more than Biden. But yeah, lets keep it simple. 

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

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14 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

The father issues are the point of the movie, not the baseball. Perhaps the more accurate statement would be "There are better movies about unpacking heterosexual daddy issues that don't try to distract men fome wholesale confronting their fee fees by dabbling in baseball."

It's a great movie. 

I guess. After Manchin said he'd consider Romney I was starting to wonder if that wouldn't hurt Donald more than Biden. But yeah, lets keep it simple. 

I think a Manchin/Romeny ticket would have killed our hopes with Democrats in West Virginia and Utah.  We'd have lost hundreds, maybe dozens.  

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 106981

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14 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

The father issues are the point of the movie, not the baseball. Perhaps the more accurate statement would be "There are better movies about unpacking heterosexual daddy issues that don't try to distract men fome wholesale confronting their fee fees by dabbling in baseball."

It's also about making the grown-ass man decision to realize that some dreams shall just remain dreams.  And that is not only okay, it is is good: it is good to have dreams, and it is good to choose a good and selfless life instead of sacrificing everything to chase those dreams.  Moonlight Graham's storyline is one of the best in the movie.

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safe sex

safe sex 12036

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15 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

The father issues are the point of the movie, not the baseball. Perhaps the more accurate statement would be "There are better movies about unpacking heterosexual daddy issues that don't try to distract men fome wholesale confronting their fee fees by dabbling in baseball."

It's a great movie. 

I guess. After Manchin said he'd consider Romney I was starting to wonder if that wouldn't hurt Donald more than Biden. But yeah, lets keep it simple. 

For sure, it's a Frank Capra movie minus Frank Capra. And that's fine. Disagree about it being great, even when looking at it as a daddy issues movie via baseball rather than the other way around, but hey that's art for you. It's not like the Library of Congress asked for my opinion when they chose it for preservation. 🤷‍♀️

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

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Just now, Brisketexan said:

It's also about making the grown-ass man decision to realize that some dreams shall just remain dreams.  And that is not only okay, it is is good: it is good to have dreams, and it is good to choose a good and selfless life instead of sacrificing everything to chase those dreams.  Moonlight Graham's storyline is one of the best in the movie.

Let's temper that a bit, Ted Bundy was just following his dreams.  

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Js1

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These maps are going from 64-35 R in the House and 22-10 R  in the Senate to 50-49 R and 18-15 D.  Those are huge swings for the Dem and you want to bitch about it?

They also look exactly like what the legislature in a 50/50 state should be.  It's the first time since the 70s that the Wisconsin legislature passed a bipartisan set of maps. 

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gmr548

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2 hours ago, Gengs1 said:

Dems have no fight in them, news at 6….

veto that shit and get better maps 

I mean checks and balances are a two way street. Wisconsin is one of the 2-3 truly 50/50 states in the county. Getting maps that more orless reflect that out of a legislature that isn't just GOP controlled, but GOP dominated is a win. I don't know what else you expect?

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Js1

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3 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I mean checks and balances are a two way street. Wisconsin is one of the 2-3 truly 50/50 states in the county. Getting maps that more orless reflect that out of a legislature that isn't just GOP controlled, but GOP dominated is a win. I don't know what else you expect?

Plus it really wasn’t worth the fight for maybe 1/2 more marginally Dem districts. The sad thing is, any gerrymander can quickly become a dummymander 

Turning a 50/50 state into a 50/50 legislature is about what you want 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 46190

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40 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Jesus Christ is there no thread integrity? We have a voter suppression thread

Is this a serious question?  Do you know where you are?  Hell, in a few minutes we'll probably be discussing Hall and Oates again FUCK!

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

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Why Trump is going to win: people can't remember what they felt four years ago.

Quote

Our latest Times Opinion focus group discussion with 13 undecided independent voters included a striking result: 11 of the 13 said they would vote for Donald Trump if the election were held now, and only two said they would vote for President Biden. The reason: overwhelming concern about the economy.

But I was less surprised by the big vote for Trump than by this: The group didn’t blame Trump for things he was responsible or accountable for.

For instance, several people linked their economic troubles to Covid, but they didn’t put any blame on Trump for that. Some were upset with the end of abortion rights nationally, but they didn’t tie that to Trump’s Supreme Court appointments. Several wanted bipartisanship, but they didn’t blame Trump for his hand in sinking the recent bipartisan border deal. One person, a Latina, blamed Trump for worsening racism in the country and recounted a searing incident that happened to her — but she was among the 11 who would vote for him anyway.

The takeaway: Biden and the Democrats still have a big opportunity to define Trump. A lot of our focus group participants — and many voters — see Trump as an acceptable option in November, yet they don’t know or remember a lot about him. Average voters don’t eat and breathe politics; several in our group weren’t well informed about Trump and abortion, for instance.

So how do you define Trump as unacceptable for these undecided voters? The economy is the key issue, no question, but I think abortion could also be influential in some battleground states — especially after the Times scoop Friday by Maggie Haberman, Jonathan Swan and Lisa Lerer about Trump privately favoring a 16-week national abortion ban (with some exceptions).

Abortion initiatives could be on the November ballot in at least two swing states — Arizona and Nevada — and Democratic fund-raising nationally could explode if Biden and his allies make a strong case that Trump would impose an abortion ban in California, New York and other blue areas. Biden is heading to California on Tuesday for three days of fund-raising, and “Trump’s abortion ban” is a phrase that, in eight months, might just break through to average voters like those in our focus group.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/02/13/opinion/thepoint#trump-independent-voters-define

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

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re: secret republicans.  they might be, but it seems to be an anecdotal version of all the polls were are seeing, which is trump +5 versus this time in 2020 where they were biden +5 or so.

 

of course, we are all desperately seeking any reason to not believe polls, and those reasons aren't hard to come up with.  2020 was the worst polling in 40 years.  the problem, of course, is they were worst in the wrong direction that we hope they would be this time.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-biden-was-worst-presidential-polling-miss-in-40-years-panel-says-11620909178

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Js1

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And 2022 was a red wave that never happened.  It was also bad polling.  

Some people are desperate not to believe polls.  Some on the flip side seem desperate to believe them. 

I continue to see the 2022-2024 special elections post-Dobbs absolutely showing that the GOP is not going to win in November.  Results > polls

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19458

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6 minutes ago, Steamboat1874 said:

Saw Hall and Oates at the Armadillo back in the day.

They were fucking awesome and had this guy as their guitarist......

 

spacer.png

G E Smith (SNL guitarist for years)

thread derail.  I had no idea he was married to gilda radner until just recently.  I saw him tooling around Austin with Ethan Hawke several years ago off South congress.  I had no desire to engage Ethan but wanted to talk guitars with Smith but just smiled and went on my way.  Great guitarist.  Seemed like a cool dude.  Probably voted for Gerald Ford.  NTTAWWT.

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5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

And 2022 was a red wave that never happened.  It was also bad polling.  

Some people are desperate not to believe polls.  Some on the flip side seem desperate to believe them. 

I continue to see the 2022-2024 special elections post-Dobbs absolutely showing that the GOP is not going to win in November.  Results > polls

Yeah, the polls suck. The results have been good. 

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12648

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On 1/25/2024 at 8:28 AM, gmr548 said:

Wisconsin is one of the two or three truly 50/50 states in the nation and it's not a super favorable state for Democrats, demographically. It's like 80% white and less than a third of adults have degrees. Democrats have scraped by in a couple of elections and it's not unwinnable but I don't see how it's any more than a tossup.

Michigan is similar on the education front but more diverse and a little less religious. PA slightly more diverse and less religious than MI, and is better educated; and the growth of that state is in the Philadelphia metro and eastern PA where people - particularly immigrants and racial minorities - are moving in from NY. I think you can make a credible argument that those are blue tilts, but they're close enough that they'll go as independents go and it is too early to know how that is going to break.

 

Wisconsin has a chance because it's becoming more urban.  Milwaukee and Madison are starting to dominate the state's population pool.  

It's why Minnesota's blue.  Minnesota isn't blue because it has rural Democrats.  It's blue because most of it's population lives in the Minneapolis/St Paul metro, and major cities are blue.  Wisconsin is becoming more this way.

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Js1

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2 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Wisconsin has a chance because it's becoming more urban.  Milwaukee and Madison are starting to dominate the state's population pool.  

It's why Minnesota's blue.  Minnesota isn't blue because it has rural Democrats.  It's blue because most of it's population lives in the Minneapolis/St Paul metro, and major cities are blue.  Wisconsin is becoming more this way.

Yep.

Dems run up big margins in Hennepin, Dakota, Washington (MSP area), St. Louis (Duluth) and Olmstead (Rochester) and the rest of the state goes red. Dems win by 7-10 points

In WI, Dems win big in Dane, Rock, Green, Iowa, Sauk (Madison and suburbs), Milwaukee and Eau Claire (and not get blown out in Waukesha) and they win.  You can lose Waukesha 60-40 and still win statewide, like Evers did in 2022. 

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South Austin

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8 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Wisconsin has a chance because it's becoming more urban.  Milwaukee and Madison are starting to dominate the state's population pool.  

Well I got the shit kicked out of me in Wisconsin once, so forget it.

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12648

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On 2/15/2024 at 7:43 AM, MonkeyDoughnut said:

I've got family there, they say immigration/border issue is top issue there. Very anti-immigrant crowd, fear of changing the American way as they know it resonating loudly.  It's the mass out of control immigration that concerns them most.

It has little to do with that and more to do with how "Democrat" has become synonymous with "urbanite who is trying to ruin your way of life".

Until 2014 there were a lot of rural white people in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin that voted Democrat.  Facebook in particular has convinced rural people that every Democratic politician wants to force them to drive electric vehicles, take their guns, mutilate their childrens' genitals, and make everyone "woke".  Minnesota and Wisconsin are urban enough that they vote Democrat, but Iowa essentially became the last state outside of New England, to be A) Predominantly rural and B) still voting Democrat.  Now it's been a decade of near complete Republican stranglehold and the only hope in sight is that eventually the growth in Des Moines and the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City overtakes rural Iowa enough to get a Democrat back in office here.

Iowa's culturally more Great Plains than Great Lakes/Rust Belt, and has finally started voting that way.  Of course, the rural areas of Minnesota and Wisconsin vote the same way Iowa does, they just comprise less of their respective state populations.

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GhostOfTomJoad

GhostOfTomJoad 9516

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Is there any chance of Iowa's Democratic party rebranding themselves a la Minnesota and their Democrat Farm Labor (DFL) party? It obviously takes more than just changing the letterhead to change Iowa blue, but Iowa has too many sensible moderates to be stuck with full on GQP/MAGA leadership.

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12648

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On 2/15/2024 at 7:33 AM, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:


I don't get Iowa. I've spent a lot of time there.  It may just be self-selection, but the people I know are liberal Lutherans and Episcopalians of the Minnesota bent.

This is the most confounding part to me as a lifetime Iowan who is basically a Democrat, but doesn't embrace the label due to my chagrin with how the party handles it's business.

Iowans aren't that fucking conservative.  They just suddenly started voting that way a decade ago.

When you talk to people in large swaths of the state, they support a litany of Democratic policies, don't harbor resentment to minorities or the gay community, but they've become utterly convinced that voting for Democrats at all will result in the most extreme and cartoonish examples of left wing excess.  So now we have a Republican party at the state level absolutely running amok because the kind of people who are willing to sign up to be low level politicians these days are essentially psychotic zealots that have no fear of being voted out due to the letter behind their name.

It will either take the Republicans doing something that tangibly causes rural people some serious pain (their attacks on public education might actually do this), or Des Moines and the Cedar Rapids/Iowa City corridors getting large enough and blue enough to override rural Iowa.

One of the cruelest ironies in all of this, is the fact that rural Iowa is doing quite well in comparison to the rest of rural America, and that has lead to a rural population that's been fairly stable for 25 years, but is now enacting policies that will eventually doom them.  

Sorry for the rant.  This shit pisses me off, and discussing it on the ISU boards is depressing as hell (most people there are even more liberal than me and are actively trying to encourage liberals to leave the state for greener political pastures, when that's the exact opposite thing we need).

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12648

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8 minutes ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

Is there any chance of Iowa's Democratic party rebranding themselves a la Minnesota and their Democrat Farm Labor (DFL) party? It obviously takes more than just changing the letterhead to change Iowa blue, but Iowa has too many sensible moderates to be stuck with full on GQP/MAGA leadership.

I think ditching the "Democrat" label would help a lot.  It's just become so damn poisoned.  People like Democrat policies here, but they hate Democrats.

We have a Democrat State Auditor who has been relatively popular, and is absolutely loathed by the Republican politicians.  He's from a small town just down the road from me, is an avid hunter, and has never leaned too far into far left positions.  He's really sharp, and could absolutely make our governor look like a fucking moron in a campaign.  He didn't run against her in 2022, but I suspect he will in 2026.

If the national party pumps money into his campaign, he has a real shot to win.  He's proven he can win a state wide election, and if you actually hear the guy, you can tell he's not some urbanite trying to cut off dicks to win swim meets or whatever the RWNJ boogey man of the day is.

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Hard Times

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2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Why Trump is going to win: people can't remember what they felt four years ago.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/02/13/opinion/thepoint#trump-independent-voters-define

Trump isn't going to win. Guys like Craig Calloway will make sure everyone knows where Dump stands. The below article explains why Biden won in 2020. Republicans are too stupid to build relationships and get people's votes, which is why Biden took over the vote count when the mail in ballots were counted.

Then the Republicans turn around and try to claim fraud. What a bunch of idiots. Calloway did nothing illegal, just another Republican plot to charge him with a crime. There will be plenty of Democrats to take his place and the Republicans still won't know what happened.

Craig Callaway speaks at fundraiser in wake of fraud charges (pressofatlanticcity.com)

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