2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Snake Diggity 4766]

Too much momentum against Biden with too short of a runway.  He’s done.  It’ll feel a lot better to see a more virile candidate lose to Trump if that’s the outcome, because it’s the obvious best choice.

I don’t think George Clooney should be president or anything, but I have read quite a bit on him, and I do think he is an extremely intelligent person with high relative integrity, so the fact that he’s come out against Biden is damaging.

[South Austin 53336]

4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Solution 

“I am Shiva, the God of Death!”

[Captainant 28631]

25 minutes ago, Red Five said:

From a close family member: Deeply, deeply concerned about Biden's fitness to hold office. "Thankfully, no one really believes all those lies about Trump being a felon are true." 

Just kill me now.

My mother in law kept getting visibly upset with me whenever I would refer to trump as "the criminally fraudulent child rapist". But she has LOADS to say about how concerned she is about Biden's age.

We furked

[Red Five 41813]

1 minute ago, Captainant said:

My mother in law kept getting visibly upset with me whenever I would refer to trump as "the criminally fraudulent child rapist". But she has LOADS to say about how concerned she is about Biden's age.

We furked

"There wasn't any proof at all. They just convicted him so that he wouldn't be president." Because that's what Jesse Watters told her.

[Snake Diggity 4766]

PredictIt odds are at $.25 for Biden and $.19 for Harris ($.61 for Trump).  

[Vegas64 722]

6 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Well America is basically one big high school, so it tracks.

Presidential elections being popularity contests is my dumbed down idealization of direct democracy. I think it's why we call it a "popular vote". Like the one Hillary won in 2016.

[Duane Moore 5781]

1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

I actually kind of like the strategy of Dems keeping things close to the vest during the RNC. Forces them to scrap or at least hedge the anti-Biden talking points while at the same time plan for someone else entirely. There's no benefit to Biden dropping out before the RNC.

They’ll have plenty of fire trained on Kamala, because even if Joe stays at the top of the ticket, people understand he won’t stay there for four years if they win.

1 hour ago, Okie State said:

This is one of the more depressing threads I've read. We're fucked.

Thread title out front should have told you. 

32 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Who is Frank Reich in this situation?

That’s the problem, nobody can agree on who that is.  What does it say about how people on Capitol Hill regard Kamala’s chances that they haven’t coalesced around her when they obviously think Biden has no shot?

[Captainant 28631]

Counterpoint to all the of "BIDEN IS SO OLD WE GOTTA VOTE FOR TRUMP!!!":

it's just outrageous how trump has a completely different rubric than Biden. He's always been a word salad and rape machine, so I guess that's all honkey dorey now?

[Duane Moore 5781]

Stringing this into next week, running out the clock. But counter-programming the RNC?

 

[4th&Five 42068]

 

[C-Man 27876]

32 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

PredictIt odds are at $.25 for Biden and $.19 for Harris ($.61 for Trump).  

[chainsaw 10338]

1 minute ago, C-Man said:

[immamac 44459]

could you imagine how fucking stupid it was to force the debate issue and do a debate this fucking early in the process? I keep going back to that, it's like the largest unforced error in politics that I can ever remember. 

[gmr548 16704]

2 hours ago, baboso said:

Follow the money.  From the WSJ:

Campaign finance rules create an incentive for Mr. Biden to stay in the race through the Democratic National Convention in August. At that point, but not before, Mr. Biden would be able to transfer his campaign’s anticipated $100 million war chest to Vice President Kamala Harris, assuming that she, too, is still on the ticket.

If Mr. Biden drops out before the Democratic Party formally makes him its nominee, then Federal Election Commission rules dictate that no more than $2,000 of any campaign funds that he raised may be transferred to any other candidate, including Ms. Harris. The Federal Election Campaign Act governs what a presidential campaign may do with “excess campaign funds,” which is what the money left in the Biden for President campaign will legally be considered if he is no longer a candidate. Those excess funds may be contributed in an unlimited amount to the Democratic National Committee or an independent expenditure committee. Presidential campaigns may also contribute such funds to other federal campaigns, subject to contribution limits, which are $2,000 per election.

In short: Before the nomination officially goes to Mr. Biden, his campaign is limited to donating $2,000 to the Democratic nominee, whether that new standard bearer is Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer or Ms. Harris.

 

It's been reported that Kamala Harris would be able to simply take over and have the entire Biden-Harris campaign war chest and infrastructure at her disposal because, to grossly oversimplify it, her name is on the campaign and she is a part of it already. Is that not the case?

1 hour ago, immamac said:

I mean what does Biden have to do to get the keys taken away from him? Seriously what would have him staring straight at a 25th amendment forced removal? How bad must he fuck up to not be viable? 

 

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

From Section 4 of the 25th Amendment: "Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President."

 

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

For anyone thinking about the 25th Amendment, has a single cabinet member come out and said Joe Biden is unfit for office?

 

1 hour ago, YGIFS said:

As a historical norm, infrequently though it might be, when the cabinet meets to even discuss the 25th or actually vote on it---it is not made public ahead of time.  From Ford to myriad Presidents having medical issues or undergoing anesthesia...they simply let us know afterwards.  The tricky part here is there are 1000 cameras on them right now.  So much as a handful of them are seen together, the chaos begins. 

What you may see happen is Biden is encouraged to call a cabinet meeting at the WH to assure his team he is of full capacity.  They exchange chit-chat for 30 minutes, he is then informed, "Remember Mister President, we have that photo-op and quick chat with the XYZ group in the Blue Room."  All rise, Joe walks out, and the Cabinet sits back down and all cameras are turned off.  

For one, Democrats are not going to 25th a sitting POTUS. For two, that wouldn't actually change anything about his status as the presumptive nominee.

42 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

 

Not with Trump on the ballot it's not. I buy the downballot race thing though.

[Snake Diggity 4766]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

could you imagine how fucking stupid it was to force the debate issue and do a debate this fucking early in the process? I keep going back to that, it's like the largest unforced error in politics that I can ever remember. 

It will only be an unforced error if Biden remains the nominee.  It may not be likely, but it is possible the decision-makers forced it early to expose Biden with enough time to make a change.

[wildcat09 29622]

1 minute ago, Snake Diggity said:

It will only be an unforced error if Biden remains the nominee.  It may not be likely, but it is possible the decision-makers forced it early to expose Biden with enough time to make a change.

No it's not. This isn't 1920. Party politics doesn't work like this anymore. The decision-maker in the decisions of whether and when to debate was Joe Biden.

[immamac 44459]

1 minute ago, Snake Diggity said:

It will only be an unforced error if Biden remains the nominee.  It may not be likely, but it is possible the decision-makers forced it early to expose Biden with enough time to make a change.

no one has a problem with biden being re-elected or winning. the problem is the optics. He could have just stayed the course in the basement. Done a few speaking engagements and let his success do the talking. Instead now we have this media circus and shitshow which force the hand.

Just now, wildcat09 said:

No it's not. This isn't 1920. Party politics doesn't work like this anymore. The decision-maker in the decisions of whether and when to debate was Joe Biden.

this is the crazy part, biden was talking mad shit and knocked himself out cold on the playground.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Hanks-Swift 24.  LFG

 

O'Neal-Clooney 24.  LFG

 

Harrelson-MichelleO. 24 LFG

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Wait.  Why did I say Harrelson.  

I meant Mcconaughey

[Chuckie Finster 23113]

10 minutes ago, immamac said:

could you imagine how fucking stupid it was to force the debate issue and do a debate this fucking early in the process? I keep going back to that, it's like the largest unforced error in politics that I can ever remember. 

It was evident at the time, and many here expressed skepticism at the idea.  My fear though was that it would easily generate a few meme viral clips, not that Joe would be a walking corpse.

There are ways to hide whatever is happening to Joe.  A debate puts ALL of the bad shit front and center.

[ConferenceRoom 6215]

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Wait.  Why did I say Harrelson.  

I meant Mcconaughey

[Nicole44 22326]

16 minutes ago, immamac said:

could you imagine how fucking stupid it was to force the debate issue and do a debate this fucking early in the process? I keep going back to that, it's like the largest unforced error in politics that I can ever remember. 

I don’t know why it was done. There are a couple of theories.
 

But anyone who has ever been around someone suffering some type of mental decline has to know you can’t manage what they will do in public. I took my aunt to the grocery store shortly after her diagnosis. It was a shitshow. She kept insisting out loud that HEB (Austin) wasn’t going to let her  leave the store.

Kept telling customers that if you are from Dallas they won’t let you leave the store. She’d never done that before or I would never have taken her to the store with me. On the drive home she was rocking back and forth crying saying, “Coco (my nickname) what’s wrong with me? My brain doesn’t work. Just run me over with your car. I can’t make my brain work.”

 You can’t manage what someone who might be in some type of mental decline will do. You can’t. There is no way to predict it. You can give them a teleprompter. Put a voice in their ear. Give them note cards. But once the decline starts hastening you can’t predict what will happen even if you are right there next to them. I wish it were not this way. But it’s where we appear to be. Kindest thing would be for every senate and house dem demand a meeting with him tonite. Tell him to drop out. Tell him he has no choice. That’s all I can think to do. Depressing af. 

Edited July 10 by Nicole44

[Zonahorn 8079]

https://news.northeastern.edu/2024/07/09/biden-debate-performance-voter-preferences/

 

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/s32r38vj3sct3kkrijoyw/CHIP50-REPORT-105-DEBATE-2024.pdf?rlkey=nq301dg3j6bdqt42o67eo74nb&e=2&dl=0

 

Quote

President Joe Biden’s performance during the first presidential debate has been widely panned, with critics and even those within his own party calling for him to step aside. But the question remained: Would Biden’s shaky performance against former President Donald Trump result in a noticeable dip in the polls for the president?

According to a new report from the Northeastern University-led data project CHIP50, the answer is no.

Led by David Lazer, university distinguished professor of political science and computer science at Northeastern, the report indicates that the debate had little if any impact on people’s voting preference. Lazer hopes the report helps illustrate the dangers of making a mountain out of a molehill when it comes to the media interpreting data.

“Even the New York Times, which is usually better about this, talked about a very tiny shift that was totally insignificant statistically like it was evidence that it was a shift toward Trump after the debate,” Lazer says. “My hope is that reporters look at this and say, ‘Maybe we need to be careful in overinterpreting noise as actual signal.’”

Most political polling inherently has a margin of error that is often ignored, says David Lazer, Northeastern distinguished professor of political science and computer science. Photo by Matthew Modoono/Northeastern University

Seeing the dominant narrative coming out of the debate, Lazer and the team at CHIP50 decided to test the hypothesis that Biden had lost ground in public opinion after the debate. Notably, Lazer says, they didn’t survey two different cross-sectional groups of people before and after the debate like most polls. Instead, the team was able to survey the same group of respondents from a survey conducted before the debate.

Lazer says using the same group of people helps make the results more precise, which is important in polling that inherently has a margin of error.

What the report finds is that Biden held on to 94% of the people who said they would support him before the debate. For Trump, 86% of people who said they would support him before the debate said they would do so after the debate. 

“What we see is that there is some churn –– maybe 10 percent or so of people change what they answer –– but that the net result is not a movement away from Biden,” Lazer says. “If anything, it seems that Biden is holding on to his people somewhat better than Trump.”

 

In fact, generally, the shift in support was actually more in Biden’s favor, although Lazer notes it’s not statistically significant and well within the margin of error.

There were very minor shifts between the candidates: 1% of people who said they would vote for Biden before the debate, switched to preferring Trump, while 3% switched from Trump to Biden. Similarly, respondents who said they were unsure who they would vote for before the debate were slightly more likely to switch to preferring Biden after the debate.

“[It all] points in the same direction, which is that it seems unlikely, based on our data, that things shifted toward Trump after the debate,” Lazer says. “If anything, our point estimate is a little more toward Biden, but I wouldn’t make a lot of noise about that.”

There were more significant, but still minor, shifts toward people preferring other third-party candidates after the debate. About 4% of Biden’s supporters and 6% of Trump’s supporters said they would prefer the “Other” category on the survey post-debate. Meanwhile, 6% of those who preferred another candidate before the debate shifted to both Biden and Trump after the debate, resulting in a small net impact.

The relatively stable trend of poll numbers in the 2024 election is indicative to Lazer of how polarizing politics have become where very little will sway voters from their preferred party.

Trump was convicted of a set of felonies,” Lazer says. “The impact it had on surveys was zero. Biden had a debate where most people said it proved he was too old. Survey respondents said, ‘Yeah, I saw that. He’s too old. I’m still voting for him.’ The numbers just aren’t moving.”

Lazer says “the overconfidence we have in seemingly precise statistics” isn’t anything new during an election cycle, but he cautions that the 2024 election is different.

“In this case it’s actually materially affecting decision-making,” Lazer says. “If you make the narrative that things are cratering for Biden, it may affect whether Biden stays in the race. I don’t know if he should stay in the race or not, but decisions should be made on accurate information.”

Just injecting some positivity into the doom, don't mind me

[Pato del Muerto 53635]

15 minutes ago, immamac said:

could you imagine how fucking stupid it was to force the debate issue and do a debate this fucking early in the process? I keep going back to that, it's like the largest unforced error in politics that I can ever remember. 

How much later would you have liked it revealed that he has a problem?  

[wildcat09 29622]

8 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

https://news.northeastern.edu/2024/07/09/biden-debate-performance-voter-preferences/

 

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/s32r38vj3sct3kkrijoyw/CHIP50-REPORT-105-DEBATE-2024.pdf?rlkey=nq301dg3j6bdqt42o67eo74nb&e=2&dl=0

 

Just injecting some positivity into the doom, don't mind me

"Biden is old as shit" was already baked in with undecided voters so them seeing that maybe a little more clearly than before just doesn't really change much, especially given his opponent.  At this point I do think Biden's chances of winning have been seriously harmed, but more by the panic within the party than by his actual performance.

[DixonHur 11971]

40 minutes ago, Captainant said:

it's just outrageous how trump has a completely different rubric than Biden. He's always been a word salad and rape machine, so I guess that's all honkey dorey now?

As a white male, I can't say for sure, but it's seeming like the Democrats are starting to experience the America my minority friends describe.

[Nivek 17455]

40 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Counterpoint to all the of "BIDEN IS SO OLD WE GOTTA VOTE FOR TRUMP!!!":

it's just outrageous how trump has a completely different rubric than Biden. He's always been a word salad and rape machine, so I guess that's all honkey dorey now?

You see, Bill Clinton once smoke pot and we needed a hearing about this.   GWB his successor, went to rehab for drug abuse, and his running mate had multiple DUIs but, none of this mattered.  Trump is a criminal, serial conman that likes little girls, married to a eurotrash prostitute, serial liar, and put his kids in office, but we need to investigate if Hunter Biden benefitted from nepotism.   This is Hillary's emails all over again. 

[Duane Moore 5781]

2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

"Biden is old as shit" was already baked in with undecided voters so them seeing that maybe a little more clearly than before just doesn't really change much, especially given his opponent.  At this point I do think Biden's chances of winning have been seriously harmed, but more by the panic within the party than by his actual performance.

This is correct. We’ve never had an election where the public’s opinions of both candidates is so fixed and set in stone. In a normal election a performance like that would have dropped Biden 5-10 points in a week. I was thinking 2-4 points given the dynamic we’ve seen all year, but he’s currently only dropped 1.8 points in the RCP average from the day of the debate. It’s what’s giving him a real argument to stay in. 

[Nivek 17455]

2 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

As a white male, I can't say for sure, but it's seeming like the Democrats are starting to experience the America my minority friends describe.

Democratic Party members have always been held to a higher standard from their constituents.   Republicans have no standards so there is no bar to clear.

[gmr548 16704]

4 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

"Biden is old as shit" was already baked in with undecided voters so them seeing that maybe a little more clearly than before just doesn't really change much, especially given his opponent.  At this point I do think Biden's chances of winning have been seriously harmed, but more by the panic within the party than by his actual performance.

Yep. We're just seeing elected Democrats come around tot he position that 65% of American voters or whatever it is have consistently held for the entire election cycle, in real time. Biden is mortally wounded now but it has been the debate fallout that did it, not the debate itself.

[Anastasis 23727]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

PredictIt odds are at $.25 for Biden and $.19 for Harris ($.61 for Trump).  

These are the POTUS prices.  D nominee is at 48 cents, down 12 on the day.

[C-Man 27876]

33 minutes ago, immamac said:

could you imagine how fucking stupid it was to force the debate issue and do a debate this fucking early in the process? I keep going back to that, it's like the largest unforced error in politics that I can ever remember. 

Actually, it could be a blessing if this forces Joe from the race then there is at least a little time to ramp up and appoint a new nominee. Also, if Joe remains the candidate, he has more time to “rehab” his public image and have appearances that make Debate #1 seem more like an outlier.

[Chuckie Finster 23113]

9 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

"Biden is old as shit" was already baked in with undecided voters so them seeing that maybe a little more clearly than before just doesn't really change much, especially given his opponent.  At this point I do think Biden's chances of winning have been seriously harmed, but more by the panic within the party than by his actual performance.

I disagree.  There's "Dumbledore" old and there's "nursing home" old.  There's a big difference in electability between the two, and I think a lot of folks moved Biden from one to the other after the debate.

[C-Man 27876]

11 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

"Biden is old as shit" was already baked in with undecided voters so them seeing that maybe a little more clearly than before just doesn't really change much, especially given his opponent.  At this point I do think Biden's chances of winning have been seriously harmed, but more by the panic within the party than by his actual performance.

Thankfully there are enough of us who would rather have a catatonic Biden with an outstanding cabinet running this country on auto-pilot for four more years than the all-but-certain chaos and fascism that’s on the horizon with another Trump Admininstration.

[wildcat09 29622]

Just now, Chuckie Finster said:

I disagree.  There's "Dumbledore" old and there's "nursing home" old.  There's a big difference in electability between the two, and I think a lot of folks moved Biden from one to the other after the debate.

Except we have evidence that they didn't:

 

[Red Five 41813]

2 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Also, if Joe remains the candidate, he has more time to “rehab” his public image and have appearances that make Debate #1 seem more like an outlier.

That's the hard part though. He is what he is at this point. How do you make people forget that he's 81 years old and a lot of the time looks and acts 91?

[Zonahorn 8079]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Yep. We're just seeing elected Democrats come around tot he position that 65% of American voters or whatever it is have consistently held for the entire election cycle, in real time. Biden is mortally wounded now but it has been the debate fallout that did it, not the debate itself.

Agree, Democrats need to stop drip-feeding “well maybe we DO replace him” to the press and get to work. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

@bolverk @wildcat09

the evidence shows thelma and louise are actually HIGHER than the cliff!  all is well!

[Zonahorn 8079]

Cursed double

Edited July 10 by Zonahorn

[Red Five 41813]

3 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Agree, Democrats need to stop drip-feeding “well maybe we DO replace him” to the press and get to work. 

Man, sometimes there are things you just can't come back from. Like Kramer doing stand-up. 

[Dnaguy 12745]

48 minutes ago, immamac said:

could you imagine how fucking stupid it was to force the debate issue and do a debate this fucking early in the process? I keep going back to that, it's like the largest unforced error in politics that I can ever remember. 

IMO, which means dick, I think they saw the decline and were hoping an early debate where he didn’t look like the grim reaper would put the age issue to bed long enough for Trumps trials to take center stage.

Because of Trumps puppet judge in S Florida and the upstanding 6 justices on the Supreme Court, half their plan became toast.

Then Biden went out there and toasted the other half.

If he steps down, however, then it could be serendipitous bc if he did this in September or October then the race would be a lost cause.

Simulation gunna simulate.

Edited July 10 by Dnaguy

[Bateshorn 9993]

Holy fuck, stop with it was the meltdown, not the debate that is the crisis.

if elected, Biden has to govern for four more years. It’s clear he cannot. Which means we are functionally being asked to vote for Harris. But folks don’t like that.

 As an intellectual argument that’s both flawed, and kinda misogynist. 

[wildcat09 29622]

3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

@bolverk @wildcat09

the evidence shows thelma and louise are actually HIGHER than the cliff!  all is well!

The thing is that I've thought since it was clear he was going to be their nominee again that Trump would have a very good chance of winning. What I've been arguing since the debate isn't that Trump can't win (because I've always thought he had a good chance), but simply that Biden's debate performance didn't actually substantially change the game. It's just that you and many others didn't want to think Trump had a chance so you convinced yourselves that he didn't and Biden's debate performance was a real wake up kick in the balls.  

[wildcat09 29622]

2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Holy fuck, stop with it was the meltdown, not the debate that is the crisis.

if elected, Biden has to govern for four more years. It’s clear he cannot. Which means we are functionally being asked to vote for Harris. But folks don’t like that.

 As an intellectual argument that’s both flawed, and kinda misogynist. 

I've said that I'd be fine with Harris at the top of the ticket. It's the people openly masturbating about some new blitz primary who are dismissing her for racist and misogynistic reasons. 

[YGIFS 19460]

Biden to give unedited interview to Lester Holt here in Austin on Monday after his talk at LBJ.  Don't know if it's at LBJ with a film crew or done at NBC studio affiliate-KXAN.  I guess we'll know by the road closures.  Sure hope he sticks his landing.  I would think doing it at LBJ would be grandiose and remind people of what he's done to help advance Civil Rights over his last four years.  But it may also make him look like a relic, being that he's over 20 years older than the legislation he's here to celebrate.  I dunno with this fucking simulation.  They'll probably end up having it at Amy's Ice Cream.

[aggie08 21864]

5 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

The thing is that I've thought since it was clear he was going to be their nominee again that Trump would have a very good chance of winning. What I've been arguing since the debate isn't that Trump can't win (because I've always thought he had a good chance), but simply that Biden's debate performance didn't actually substantially change the game. It's just that you and many others didn't want to think Trump had a chance so you convinced yourselves that he didn't and Biden's debate performance was a real wake up kick in the balls.  

I always thought Trump had a puncher's chance. Now I think he's a shoo-in without something substantial happening.

[chainsaw 10338]

This isn't about a "debate performance." It's about a fundamental and permanent change in how the majority of Americans (supporters, neutrals, and opponents) perceive Joe Biden. It's not fixable, and it will not get better over time.

[tx 3 putt 78868]

Free ad ….

 

[chainsaw 10338]

LBJ usually bodes poorly for an incumbent president

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]