2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Sawbonz 28245]

8 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

no one wants to read posts from people that pluralize data.

 

I bet you say “just between you and I”

[wildcat09 29600]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

In light of the Chevron ruling, do you REALLY think the supremes will let Biden accomplish anything through his agencies? I feel it's more likely that alito and thomas lean even harder into obstructionism to sling shit at the (D) administration 

I know I'm a real sicko pervert because there is a part of me that really wants to see how fucking insane a President Harris would drive the Alitos.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

I wasn't even trying to do this, but just guessed based on likely.  Yikes.  This just changes NE2, AZ, GA and NV.  Ends up a tie.

[Sawbonz 28245]

4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I wasn't even trying to do this, but just guessed based on likely.  Yikes.  This just changes NE2, AZ, GA and NV.  Ends up a tie.

I think Harris has the best chance to keep AZ and Nevada  

And I think Joe loses WI and / or PA

 

Edited July 12 by Sawbonz

[LCHorn 2751]

1 hour ago, 6th Street said:

Damn that cunt is my congresswoman

What about that statement justifies calling her a cunt?  Let’s reserve that sobriquet for Ted Cruz.  

[Js1 87287]

2 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

What about that statement justifies calling her a cunt?  Let’s reserve that sobriquet for Ted Cruz.  

Bro, It's 6th Street.  He is the cunt

['stache 22146]

8 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

What about that statement justifies calling her a cunt?  Let’s reserve that sobriquet for Ted Cruz.  

They should be raising these concerns behind closed doors not undermining their party's candidate and sitting president in public. 

[Jive Turkey 13019]

 

[hornbri 1511]

36 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

What we really need is an accurate poll of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada. I don’t know how you get an accurate poll of them, but that’s going to be the difference. If Biden can’t win those, can’t win the presidency. 

IMO if you can’t get those data you have to move on. The risk is too great 

Like him or not Nate Silver seems to have the most data right now. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 34108]

lol. it's not about liking him or not, Nate Silver has been staggeringly wrong for a while now

[hornbri 1511]

3 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

lol. it's not about liking him or not, Nate Silver has been staggeringly wrong for a while now

Ok…even if I buy into that. this is just an average of polls, not one of his predictions to be wrong about. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 34108]

4 minutes ago, hornbri said:

Ok…even if I buy into that. this is just an average of polls, not one of his predictions to be wrong about. 

sure man, we can all throw around random-ass polls right now that means literally nothing

 

[Js1 87287]

538 (via ABC) has Biden favored right now.  Barely. 

[Sawbonz 28245]

3 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

sure man, we can all throw around random-ass polls right now that means literally nothing

 

An aggregate of polls is different than cherry picking a single poll

 

But the aggregate isn’t necessarily better if the individual polls are trash 

[6th Street 6699]

The only way for Biden to win is for RFK to drop out

[WhatTheBuck 28941]

51 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I mean Clyburn is a big Kamala fan as well and has said he’d support her too if she were the nominee. I wouldn’t read too much into this.

When asked, Clyburn also said he’d support a mini-primary ahead of the convention if Biden drops out.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/03/clyburn-biden-president-election-dnc-00166481

[Longhorn_Fan68 34108]

Just now, 6th Street said:

The only way for Biden to win is for RFK to drop out

I think you have it backwards. There's way more alignment with Trump/RFK voters than Biden/RFK

[hornmpa96 2671]

I struggle with any poll that has Kennedy receiving greater than 3% of the vote. The last independent candidate to get that high of a percentage was Gary Johnson. 

Where do the people who are Kennedy voters in these polls actually end up?

It’s easy to be upset with Biden about Gaza or his age and tell a pollster that I’m pulling the lever for Kennedy. It’s a completely different thing to actually do it in the voting booth.

[Ghost of LL 15705]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

theory: it is already decided that biden is going to drop out, but they've identified a future date to do it because at that time it'd be too late to do anything other than just pass the torch to harris.  they want that to avoid a nasty fight that will make the party overall a loser.

I don't think this is a terrible hypothesis.

[Js1 87287]

2 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

I struggle with any poll that has Kennedy receiving greater than 3% of the vote. The last independent candidate to get that high of a percentage was Gary Johnson. 

Where do the people who are Kennedy voters in these polls actually end up?

It’s easy to be upset with Biden about Gaza or his age and tell a pollster that I’m pulling the lever for Kennedy. It’s a completely different thing to actually do it in the voting booth.

The two most hated candidates in history ran in 2016 and all of the third-party candidates barely hit 5% combined.  Sorry, I don't see Kennedy doubling that number.  It's always so "cool" to say you're voting third party in July, but then it's November and you have to make a real decision. 

Edited July 12 by Js1

[wildcat09 29600]

4 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

The only way for Biden to win is for RFK to drop out

The way for Biden to win is to hammer Trump on Project 2025 and to repeatedly point out that RFK is a rapist who ate a dog. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

2 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

I struggle with any poll that has Kennedy receiving greater than 3% of the vote. The last independent candidate to get that high of a percentage was Gary Johnson. 

Where do the people who are Kennedy voters in these polls actually end up?

It’s easy to be upset with Biden about Gaza or his age and tell a pollster that I’m pulling the lever for Kennedy. It’s a completely different thing to actually do it in the voting booth.

i think this is a unique year for double haters, plus the attractiveness of the kennedy name with 100% recognizability for the population.  it'll be high.

[mdmost 44110]

I may be old but at least I don't have brainworms. 

[texasdago 7772]

I've noticed the new talking point among Rs right now is "LOL project 2025 doesn't exist"... "you're making this up"... "QAnon for Lefties"

I show them the link, make it clear no one is hiding it and... yup, they ignore it.  

[Js1 87287]

1 minute ago, texasdago said:

I've noticed the new talking point among Rs right now is "LOL project 2025 doesn't exist"... "you're making this up"... "QAnon for Lefties"

 

That's called gaslighting.  

[Incredulity 11882]

49 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I wasn't even trying to do this, but just guessed based on likely.  Yikes.  This just changes NE2, AZ, GA and NV.  Ends up a tie.

Would be a perfect bow on this whole thing.

 

What's the next step if this happened?  trial by combat?  18 holes at Doral?

[Longhorn_Fan68 34108]

Just now, Incredulity said:

Would be a perfect bow on this whole thing.

 

What's the next step if this happened?  trial by combat?  18 holes at Doral?

surely you know the actual answer, right?

[hobbes2702 13509]

48 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I think Harris has the best chance to keep AZ and Nevada  

And I think Joe loses WI and / or PA

 

I don’t think Joe loses any of the 4 states you mentioned. All the elections leading up to this have gone bluer and bluer in those places 

[Aqua Buddha 14809]

I know what the polling says about PA but I have a hard time believing that a state with a Dem governor and two Dem Senators that voted for Biden last time is going to vote for Trump now.

[LCHorn 2751]

28 minutes ago, 'stache said:

They should be raising these concerns behind closed doors not undermining their party's candidate and sitting president in public. 

I just totally disagree and think house reps going public (for or against) is exactly what they should be doing.  That‘s, coincidentally, representing the views of their constituents.  They don’t work for the President, they work for us (and he does, too).  
 

Look, Candidate Biden is done.  He isn’t getting younger and the right play is for the Democratic Party to put forward someone else, and public pressure needs to grow to get us there.   

[Red Five 41786]

Watching Biden competently speak on some pretty complex topics last night, and at one point the ticker on the bottom said “Trump tries to get judge to overturn his felony convictions while he meets with Viktor Orban.”

[jimmyjazz 47328]

5 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

surely you know the actual answer, right?

No.  No, he doesn't.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34108]

Just now, jimmyjazz said:

No.  No, he doesn't.

he's not going to like it when he figures it out

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Just now, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

he's not going to like it when he figures it out

i think he is.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34108]

[Duane Moore 5773]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

I mean Clyburn is a big Kamala fan as well and has said he’d support her too if she were the nominee. I wouldn’t read too much into this.

Every day that Clyburn isn’t calling for Biden to step down is a win for him.  

[jimmyjazz 47328]

1 minute ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

he's not going to like it when he figures it out

Nah, he's gonna love it.

[Incredulity 11882]

2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i think he is.

18 holes at Doral?

[Sawbonz 28245]

7 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

I don’t think Joe loses any of the 4 states you mentioned. All the elections leading up to this have gone bluer and bluer in those places 

I pray you’re right 

 

8 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I know what the polling says about PA but I have a hard time believing that a state with a Dem governor and two Dem Senators that voted for Biden last time is going to vote for Trump now.

Didn’t PA early voting and urban turnout in and around Philly put Biden over the top? You sure they will do the same for this Biden?

[Duane Moore 5773]

From watching the Mark Halperin Zoom calls, he’s hearing that Harris would be the only realistic alternative to Biden. Whitmer, Newsom, Shapiro, and any other hopeful would rather have time to build a proper campaign in 2028 than be dropped in as a replacement and have to mount a campaign of their own in August. 

[Js1 87287]

1 minute ago, Duane Moore said:

From watching the Mark Halperin Zoom calls, he’s hearing that Harris would be the only realistic alternative to Biden. Whitmer, Newsom, Shapiro, and any other hopeful would rather have time to build a proper campaign in 2028 than be dropped in as a replacement and have to mount a campaign of their own in August. 

Not to mention any of them losing to Trump = dead in the water for any future campaign, if those even exist.

Dem primary voters would not forgive them for losing to Trump. 

[LCHorn 2751]

1 minute ago, Duane Moore said:

From watching the Mark Halperin Zoom calls, he’s hearing that Harris would be the only realistic alternative to Biden. Whitmer, Newsom, Shapiro, and any other hopeful would rather have time to build a proper campaign in 2028 than be dropped in as a replacement and have to mount a campaign of their own in August. 

I’m more interested in the publicity surrounding a blitz primary, anyway.  Also a great way to vet VP choices.  Otherwise, onto Harris and the unburdened of what has been.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

5 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

18 holes at Doral?

6 holes at ok corral.

[Sawbonz 28245]

6 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

18 holes at Doral?

No cart. If one drops dead the other still has to finish 18

 

2 birds 

[Incredulity 11882]

Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

6 holes at ok corral.

Chocolate Wonderfall at Golden Corral...

Just now, Sawbonz said:

No cart. If one drops dead the other still has to finish 18

 

2 birds 

Best get the match done in August.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34108]

39 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

sure man, we can all throw around random-ass polls right now that means literally nothing

 

another. does it mean anything? who fucking knows at this point

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

if biden does that poorly with black, PA is gone, which means its curtains.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34108]

I'm beginning to think you really do live underground

[Js1 87287]

Just now, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

I'm beginning to think you really do live underground

It’s less hot!

[Hank Kingsley 21812]

54 minutes ago, 'stache said:

They should be raising these concerns behind closed doors not undermining their party's candidate and sitting president in public. 

It has been reported numerous times that members of Congress have tried to speak with Biden about their concerns and have been rejected so far. They are very frustrated. 

Axios reporter said as of now Biden has only spoken with around 25 members.