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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
8 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

no one wants to read posts from people that pluralize data.

 

I bet you say “just between you and I”

Posted
1 hour ago, Captainant said:

In light of the Chevron ruling, do you REALLY think the supremes will let Biden accomplish anything through his agencies? I feel it's more likely that alito and thomas lean even harder into obstructionism to sling shit at the (D) administration 

I know I'm a real sicko pervert because there is a part of me that really wants to see how fucking insane a President Harris would drive the Alitos.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I wasn't even trying to do this, but just guessed based on likely.  Yikes.  This just changes NE2, AZ, GA and NV.  Ends up a tie.

7B6n7.png

I think Harris has the best chance to keep AZ and Nevada  

And I think Joe loses WI and / or PA

 

Edited by Sawbonz
Posted
1 hour ago, 6th Street said:

Damn that cunt is my congresswoman

What about that statement justifies calling her a cunt?  Let’s reserve that sobriquet for Ted Cruz.  

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Posted
2 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

What about that statement justifies calling her a cunt?  Let’s reserve that sobriquet for Ted Cruz.  

Bro, It's 6th Street.  He is the cunt

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Posted
8 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

What about that statement justifies calling her a cunt?  Let’s reserve that sobriquet for Ted Cruz.  

They should be raising these concerns behind closed doors not undermining their party's candidate and sitting president in public. 

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Posted
36 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

What we really need is an accurate poll of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada. I don’t know how you get an accurate poll of them, but that’s going to be the difference. If Biden can’t win those, can’t win the presidency. 

IMO if you can’t get those data you have to move on. The risk is too great 

Like him or not Nate Silver seems to have the most data right now. 

image.thumb.png.eda9045f08e9b216637d38c22b2877ca.png

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

lol. it's not about liking him or not, Nate Silver has been staggeringly wrong for a while now

Ok…even if I buy into that. this is just an average of polls, not one of his predictions to be wrong about. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, hornbri said:

Ok…even if I buy into that. this is just an average of polls, not one of his predictions to be wrong about. 

sure man, we can all throw around random-ass polls right now that means literally nothing

 

Posted
3 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

sure man, we can all throw around random-ass polls right now that means literally nothing

 

An aggregate of polls is different than cherry picking a single poll

 

But the aggregate isn’t necessarily better if the individual polls are trash 

Posted

I struggle with any poll that has Kennedy receiving greater than 3% of the vote. The last independent candidate to get that high of a percentage was Gary Johnson. 

Where do the people who are Kennedy voters in these polls actually end up?

It’s easy to be upset with Biden about Gaza or his age and tell a pollster that I’m pulling the lever for Kennedy. It’s a completely different thing to actually do it in the voting booth.

Posted
1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

theory: it is already decided that biden is going to drop out, but they've identified a future date to do it because at that time it'd be too late to do anything other than just pass the torch to harris.  they want that to avoid a nasty fight that will make the party overall a loser.

I don't think this is a terrible hypothesis.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

I struggle with any poll that has Kennedy receiving greater than 3% of the vote. The last independent candidate to get that high of a percentage was Gary Johnson. 

Where do the people who are Kennedy voters in these polls actually end up?

It’s easy to be upset with Biden about Gaza or his age and tell a pollster that I’m pulling the lever for Kennedy. It’s a completely different thing to actually do it in the voting booth.

The two most hated candidates in history ran in 2016 and all of the third-party candidates barely hit 5% combined.  Sorry, I don't see Kennedy doubling that number.  It's always so "cool" to say you're voting third party in July, but then it's November and you have to make a real decision. 

Edited by Js1
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Posted
4 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

The only way for Biden to win is for RFK to drop out

The way for Biden to win is to hammer Trump on Project 2025 and to repeatedly point out that RFK is a rapist who ate a dog. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

I struggle with any poll that has Kennedy receiving greater than 3% of the vote. The last independent candidate to get that high of a percentage was Gary Johnson. 

Where do the people who are Kennedy voters in these polls actually end up?

It’s easy to be upset with Biden about Gaza or his age and tell a pollster that I’m pulling the lever for Kennedy. It’s a completely different thing to actually do it in the voting booth.

i think this is a unique year for double haters, plus the attractiveness of the kennedy name with 100% recognizability for the population.  it'll be high.

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Posted

I've noticed the new talking point among Rs right now is "LOL project 2025 doesn't exist"... "you're making this up"... "QAnon for Lefties"

I show them the link, make it clear no one is hiding it and... yup, they ignore it.  

Posted
1 minute ago, texasdago said:

I've noticed the new talking point among Rs right now is "LOL project 2025 doesn't exist"... "you're making this up"... "QAnon for Lefties"

 

That's called gaslighting.  

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Posted
49 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I wasn't even trying to do this, but just guessed based on likely.  Yikes.  This just changes NE2, AZ, GA and NV.  Ends up a tie.

7B6n7.png

Would be a perfect bow on this whole thing.

 

What's the next step if this happened?  trial by combat?  18 holes at Doral?

Posted
Just now, Incredulity said:

Would be a perfect bow on this whole thing.

 

What's the next step if this happened?  trial by combat?  18 holes at Doral?

surely you know the actual answer, right?

Posted
48 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I think Harris has the best chance to keep AZ and Nevada  

And I think Joe loses WI and / or PA

 

I don’t think Joe loses any of the 4 states you mentioned. All the elections leading up to this have gone bluer and bluer in those places 

Posted

I know what the polling says about PA but I have a hard time believing that a state with a Dem governor and two Dem Senators that voted for Biden last time is going to vote for Trump now.

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Posted
28 minutes ago, 'stache said:

They should be raising these concerns behind closed doors not undermining their party's candidate and sitting president in public. 

I just totally disagree and think house reps going public (for or against) is exactly what they should be doing.  That‘s, coincidentally, representing the views of their constituents.  They don’t work for the President, they work for us (and he does, too).  
 

Look, Candidate Biden is done.  He isn’t getting younger and the right play is for the Democratic Party to put forward someone else, and public pressure needs to grow to get us there.   

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Posted

Watching Biden competently speak on some pretty complex topics last night, and at one point the ticker on the bottom said “Trump tries to get judge to overturn his felony convictions while he meets with Viktor Orban.”

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Posted
1 hour ago, Pancho said:


I mean Clyburn is a big Kamala fan as well and has said he’d support her too if she were the nominee. I wouldn’t read too much into this.

Every day that Clyburn isn’t calling for Biden to step down is a win for him.  

Posted
7 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

I don’t think Joe loses any of the 4 states you mentioned. All the elections leading up to this have gone bluer and bluer in those places 

I pray you’re right 

 

8 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I know what the polling says about PA but I have a hard time believing that a state with a Dem governor and two Dem Senators that voted for Biden last time is going to vote for Trump now.

Didn’t PA early voting and urban turnout in and around Philly put Biden over the top? You sure they will do the same for this Biden?

Posted

From watching the Mark Halperin Zoom calls, he’s hearing that Harris would be the only realistic alternative to Biden. Whitmer, Newsom, Shapiro, and any other hopeful would rather have time to build a proper campaign in 2028 than be dropped in as a replacement and have to mount a campaign of their own in August. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Duane Moore said:

From watching the Mark Halperin Zoom calls, he’s hearing that Harris would be the only realistic alternative to Biden. Whitmer, Newsom, Shapiro, and any other hopeful would rather have time to build a proper campaign in 2028 than be dropped in as a replacement and have to mount a campaign of their own in August. 

Not to mention any of them losing to Trump = dead in the water for any future campaign, if those even exist.

Dem primary voters would not forgive them for losing to Trump. 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Duane Moore said:

From watching the Mark Halperin Zoom calls, he’s hearing that Harris would be the only realistic alternative to Biden. Whitmer, Newsom, Shapiro, and any other hopeful would rather have time to build a proper campaign in 2028 than be dropped in as a replacement and have to mount a campaign of their own in August. 

I’m more interested in the publicity surrounding a blitz primary, anyway.  Also a great way to vet VP choices.  Otherwise, onto Harris and the unburdened of what has been.

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Posted
Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

6 holes at ok corral.

Chocolate Wonderfall at Golden Corral...

Just now, Sawbonz said:

No cart. If one drops dead the other still has to finish 18

 

2 birds 

Best get the match done in August.

Posted
39 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

sure man, we can all throw around random-ass polls right now that means literally nothing

 

another. does it mean anything? who fucking knows at this point

 

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Posted
Just now, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

I'm beginning to think you really do live underground

It’s less hot!

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Posted
54 minutes ago, 'stache said:

They should be raising these concerns behind closed doors not undermining their party's candidate and sitting president in public. 

It has been reported numerous times that members of Congress have tried to speak with Biden about their concerns and have been rejected so far. They are very frustrated. 

Axios reporter said as of now Biden has only spoken with around 25 members. 

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