2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[texasdago 7562]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Inflation/cost of living, border, 112 years old, GOP propaganda machine.

All of the above; much of it may not necessarily be rational but we're talking about a polity of humans here. Don't expect rational.

Case in point - saw an interview with a NH voter who said he was voting Trump because his message had been more positive and he's talking less about vengeance.

L oh L

[Nice Guy Eddie 13506]

Biden has to hammer home that he agrees that we need to secure the border and that the GOP House and Trump won't act on it. A large percent of the GOP voter base won't believe him but he can get that message to a few that it's Trump who is holding back reform.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13506]

2 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Case in point - saw an interview with a NH voter who said he was voting Trump because his message had been more positive and he's talking less about vengeance.

L oh L

or there was a voter who said that other countries respect Trump and he's impossible to buy. WTF. Crazy how we can have 100% different views on Trump. Trump can be bought for billions or even just by staying at his hotel.

[gmr548 16575]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

My hypothesis is simple: Biden has a low approval rating because non-MAGA voters actually expect something from leaders and hold them accountable.  Thus, they can still prefer Biden over all other candidates, but at the same time, not approve of the job he's doing (I think it's mostly driven by disappointment on Israel, lingering economic anxiety, etc.  The Border is an issue for those voters, but not as big a driver as other issues).  

That is, the Venn diagram of people who do not approve of Biden is a circle that overlaps 1) people who will absolutely vote for Biden, 2) people who will likely vote for Biden, 3) people who will likely vote for Trump (not many of these), and 4) people who are 100% in on Trump (most Trump voters are in this category).  Whereas the Venn diagram of people who do not approve of Trump is almost all "people who will never vote for Trump."  If you disapprove of Trump, you won't vote for him.  If you will vote for him, you necessarily 100% approve of him, because that's how fucking cults work.

I am a pessimist at heart.  But I do think the hand-wringing about "Biden's relatively low approval rating" is a lot of noise signifying very little.  As just anecdotal examples, my wife and daughter both would probably fall on the "disapprove" side of Biden, mostly because they think he hasn't done enough on issues important to them (women's bodily autonomy) and has botched Israel.  BUT...each of them would also crawl 100 miles over broken glass to vote for him this election.

This theory has some backing from the midterms in that a driver of the Democrats' relative success was keeping "Somewhat Disapprove" in the fold. That's not historically normal but neither was the MAGA, election denying alternative.

Most incumbents also see their approval ratings rise in the run up to the end of their term as the alternative becomes a specific individual instead of a hypothetical. I expect the same to happen in 24, especially because we know how America feels about the other person, but this timeline is already strange.

[Js1 85257]

12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

mostly because they think he hasn't done enough on issues important to them (women's bodily autonomy)

No offense to your kid, but there's literally nothing Biden could do without the House and, when he had the House, a 50 seat majority in the Senate.   Oh yeah, and a 6-3 conservative christofacist majority on SCOTUS that will block him at every turn. 

But that's what the young generation is struggling to understand - the president is not a dictator and he cannot just enact laws by himself.  JUST DO SOMETHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited January 25 by Js1

[Js1 85257]

5 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

This theory has some backing from the midterms in that a driver of the Democrats' relative success was keeping "Somewhat Disapprove" in the fold. That's not historically normal but neither was the MAGA, election denying alternative.

 

I already mentioned the NH exit polling from the primary - Biden, with Dems, was only at +30 approval, but voting intention in November, +74

[Brisketexan 105037]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

No offense to your kid, but there's literally nothing Biden could do without the House and, when he had the House, a 50 seat majority in the Senate.   Oh yeah, and a 6-3 conservative christofacist majority on SCOTUS that will block him at every turn. 

But that's what the young generation is struggling to understand - the president is not a dictator and he cannot just enact laws by himself.  JUST DO SOMETHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yes....and no.  He could definitely pivot on Israel (but, as I have explained to my daughter and her peers, he's between a rock and a hard place there -- there's no "winning move" on that issue).

I actually think Joe has exceeded my expectations.  But then, I get all the things you mentioned.  95% of votes do not.  Shit, look at Trump voters.  They love him because they think he is a God, and will do God-like things in office.  FFS, they fawn about his "many great accomplishments" in office, but they can't actually name more than one or two actually tangible things (and they usually get the ones they do name wrong).  They think he DID God-like things, when there is an objective record showing he didn't.  He just smeared shit on everything.

[BamaATL 16593]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

I already mentioned the NH exit polling from the primary - Biden, with Dems, was only at +30 approval, but voting intention in November, +74

I think this also says a lot about the polling being flawed.  In particular, the media is constantly clamoring for a ratings bonanza, so they cherry pick data.  Currently, the fear of Trump drives ratings on the left, the prospect of Trump drives ratings on the right.  Never mind what the truth is, ratings! Yea!  

I don't know what the solution is, but the media, pretty much all of it, is guilty of this.  

[dieucla98 2942]

I miss the days when I was young and thought this shit didn't matter. Now it's just a year long anxiety attack every 4 years.

[Js1 85257]

5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yes....and no.  He could definitely pivot on Israel (but, as I have explained to my daughter and her peers, he's between a rock and a hard place there -- there's no "winning move" on that issue).

 

I was specifically mentioning that Biden hasn't "done enough" for women's bodily autonomy.  He can't, because he doesn't hold the House, and when he did, Manchin/Sinema would not vote for a filibuster carve-out for abortion rights.  He literally isn't a dictator, he can't do just wave his magic wand and restore abortion rights.

Voters have to vote for Biden and Dems if they want that restored.

[gmr548 16575]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

No offense to your kid, but there's literally nothing Biden could do without the House and, when he had the House, a 50 seat majority in the Senate.   Oh yeah, and a 6-3 conservative christofacist majority on SCOTUS that will block him at every turn. 

But that's what the young generation is struggling to understand - the president is not a dictator and he cannot just enact laws by himself.  JUST DO SOMETHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It's funny, I had a conversation with my brother last year, who I would say is probably slightly to my left, and I was saying I'd give Biden like a B-. Adequate overall but failed to make enough progress on the two biggest issues in my mind: democratic integrity and climate (with the caveat that Biden's climate impact will really have to be evaluated a decade from now when the impact of the IRA can really be assessed). 

And my brother just asked me, what else was he supposed to do with the situation in Congress? And it was a fair point. Now we can say that Democrats botched the elections in 2020 to a degree and should have had better margins with which to work, but the fundamental reality is that a very narrow Senate majority was always going to limit Biden to legislation that could be passed via reconciliation and bipartisan deals. Really all I could say was lean on the Senate to kill the fillibuster to get more significant legislation passed, which was probably a pipe dream.

Before Israel I'd pretty much come around that Biden was the best POTUS in my lifetime (born early 90s) by a decent margin. I don't like our approach there; though I acknowledge it's basically a poison pill I can't abide allowing Israel to do what they've done. However, I don't understand the progressives entertaining not voting for Biden over this. Do you wan to be in the tent and influencing policy decisions or do you want to watch Trump encouraging his buddy Bibi to level Gaza?

[wildcat09 29337]

13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

No offense to your kid, but there's literally nothing Biden could do without the House and, when he had the House, a 50 seat majority in the Senate.   Oh yeah, and a 6-3 conservative christofacist majority on SCOTUS that will block him at every turn. 

But that's what the young generation is struggling to understand - the president is not a dictator and he cannot just enact laws by himself.  JUST DO SOMETHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It's also hard to hold "the President is not a dictator" and "if Trump is elected President he will be a dictator" together in one's head. Some people who don't really understand how things work think that either another Trump term isn't a serious threat or that Biden could do literally anything he wants to and just chooses not to, so might as well let Trump burn it all down. These people are loud online, but I think they're actually a very small part of the population.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

I miss the days when I was young and thought this shit didn't matter. Now it's just a year long anxiety attack every 4 years.

Back then, it didn't. Something changed, oh, about 7 years ago.

[Js1 85257]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

And my brother just asked me, what else was he supposed to do with the situation in Congress? And it was a fair point. Now we can say that Democrats botched the elections in 2020 to a degree and should have had better margins with which to work, but the fundamental reality is that a very narrow Senate majority was always going to limit Biden to legislation that could be passed via reconciliation and bipartisan deals. Really all I could say was lean on the Senate to kill the fillibuster to get more significant legislation passed, which was probably a pipe dream.

 

What Biden managed to do with a 50/50 senate was pretty damn historic. ARP, BIB, largest gun-safety legislation in 30 years, CHIPS, IRA, all the Ukraine support

Like how? Seems like it takes a competent POTUS to do all of that.   

Unfortunately, 2 Senators refused to carve out voting rights/abortion rights in the filibuster. 

Edited January 25 by Js1

[Zonahorn 8079]

 

Good

[henrygandorf 29189]

i don't know where to put this (title of my sex tape), so i'll just put it here.

i'm finding the relationship between the border situation and the general election fascinating, because trump is meddling from the outside (have we ever seen a candidate do this?) and folks like romney are throwing a spaz about it - https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4429211-romney-trump-border-bill-biden/

obviously the more in-fighting, the better.  the american people seem to have elevated the border into a top 2-3 issue.  if congress does something, which they're trying to, it's good for biden.  trump doesn't want them to fix it, because he wants to run on it.  which frankly, is the most insightful, coherent move i've ever seen from trump the candidate, so someone else must've given it to him.

it also reminded me of something, and it was bothering me, until i found it.

here ^, whitford is trying to get a lawsuit properly funded against big tobacco, and is elevating the press profile to get attention, and then taking a stupid victory lap when he got it.  ron silver, who stole every scene he was in, is running the reelection campaign, and puts him in his place.

[mchookem 16318]

5 hours ago, gmr548 said:

I mean I agree it's good for POTUS to maybe sneak in a working vacation for mental health's sake but otherwise there's zero reason for that

Trump may very well not even be on the ballot in CO lol

[Ghost of LL 15531]

6 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Florida will be more in play than usual. There is going to be an abortion referendum on the ballot and that's shown to help Dems in other states.

My guess is that Trump and the FL GOP will work overtime to not have that referendum on the ballot this year.

Counterpoint: having a referendum on the ballot enables suburban white women to vote for Trump, thinking that they've safeguarded abortion rights through their referendum vote.

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

I was specifically mentioning that Biden hasn't "done enough" for women's bodily autonomy.  He can't, because he doesn't hold the House, and when he did, Manchin/Sinema would not vote for a filibuster carve-out for abortion rights.  He literally isn't a dictator, he can't do just wave his magic wand and restore abortion rights.

Voters have to vote for Biden and Dems if they want that restored.

Yes and no.

I think he could've done more with his executive power.  Open VA hospitals and military medical facilities to civilian reproductive care.  Sic CMS on any pharmacy not filling abortifacient prescriptions (I'm looking at you, Walgreens).

[SydneyCarton 48051]

46 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i don't know where to put this (title of my sex tape), so i'll just put it here.

i'm finding the relationship between the border situation and the general election fascinating, because trump is meddling from the outside (have we ever seen a candidate do this?) and folks like romney are throwing a spaz about it - https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4429211-romney-trump-border-bill-biden/

obviously the more in-fighting, the better.  the american people seem to have elevated the border into a top 2-3 issue.  if congress does something, which they're trying to, it's good for biden.  trump doesn't want them to fix it, because he wants to run on it.  which frankly, is the most insightful, coherent move i've ever seen from trump the candidate, so someone else must've given it to him.

it also reminded me of something, and it was bothering me, until i found it.

here ^, whitford is trying to get a lawsuit properly funded against big tobacco, and is elevating the press profile to get attention, and then taking a stupid victory lap when he got it.  ron silver, who stole every scene he was in, is running the reelection campaign, and puts him in his place.

I'm upset that you posted this, becuase it sent me a couple clicks to which I saw this link, which after Bruno goes off is just so wholely depressing (and accurate) about how literally zero has changed, and in fact it's gotten worse, about the dynamic between parties. 
 

The only silver lining is that the scene had a young Connie Britton in it, when she was in her Mid 30's and looked like she was in her mid 20's. 

[Js1 85257]

16 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I think he could've done more with his executive power.  Open VA hospitals and military medical facilities to civilian reproductive care.  Sic CMS on any pharmacy not filling abortifacient prescriptions (I'm looking at you, Walgreens).

You discount how quickly that would have ended up at SCOTUS and slapped down quickly by the christofascists 

[Brisketexan 105037]

8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I'm upset that you posted this, becuase it sent me a couple clicks to which I saw this link, which after Bruno goes off is just so wholely depressing (and accurate) about how literally zero has changed, and in fact it's gotten worse, about the dynamic between parties. 
 

The only silver lining is that the scene had a young Connie Britton in it, when she was in her Mid 30's and looked like she was in her mid 20's. 

Did I skim through that just to check out Connie?  Yes.  Yes I did.  She's been smoke forever, and smoke she will remain.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13506]

The GOP dragging their feet with border security reform can still be spun as a win especially if it’s easy to tie it back to Trump. Call it reasonable reform that protects America while simultaneously allowing needed workers into country.

 

[Superhero 8824]

I don't understand the talk about economic uncertainty.

Yes there was inflation, but it's down to 3.4%. Unemployment is at a record low. Minimum wages have gone up. Stock market for those fortunate to have 401(k) or brokerage accounts has been going gangbusters.

Can someone explain it to me like I'm a 5 year old?

[Js1 85257]

6 minutes ago, Superhero said:

I don't understand the talk about economic uncertainty.

Yes there was inflation, but it's down to 3.4%. Unemployment is at a record low. Minimum wages have gone up. Stock market for those fortunate to have 401(k) or brokerage accounts has been going gangbusters.

Can someone explain it to me like I'm a 5 year old?

Fox News say economy bad. Groceries cost $1,000 a trip. Reddit trolls say everyone is broke, homeless and unemployed. 

[Ghost of LL 15531]

47 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You discount how quickly that would have ended up at SCOTUS and slapped down quickly by the christofascists 

I don't discount anything.  I said he could've done more.  He could've.  Maybe it would've been ineffective.  Even if effective, it wouldn't have been sufficient.

But he could've done more.

20 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The GOP dragging their feet with border security reform can still be spun as a win especially if it’s easy to tie it back to Trump. Call it reasonable reform that protects America while simultaneously allowing needed workers into country.

 

Which is why McConnell blew the whistle on it.

The Turtle knows what he's doing.  By saying, "the Ukraine/Border bill is dead because we need to support Trump," he's laying the failure of the border bill at Trump's feet.  And that's going to do a lot to ensure that a Ukraine/Border bill actually gets advanced.

[wildcat09 29337]

52 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You discount how quickly that would have ended up at SCOTUS and slapped down quickly by the christofascists 

Then it'd be another arrow in the quiver against SCOTUS.

[Superhero 8824]

The turtle is the enemy of my enemy. It's a god damn Game of Thrones arc in DC.

As long as they all die a fiery death in the end, I'm good with it.

[BamaATL 16593]

5 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I don't discount anything.  I said he could've done more.  He could've.  Maybe it would've been ineffective.  Even if effective, it wouldn't have been sufficient.

But he could've done more.

Which is why McConnell blew the whistle on it.

The Turtle knows what he's doing.  By saying, "the Ukraine/Border bill is dead because we need to support Trump," he's laying the failure of the border bill at Trump's feet.  And that's going to do a lot to ensure that a Ukraine/Border bill actually gets advanced.

I kind of want to vomit after thinking this, but on this McConnell is right.  It's telling that him and Romney are leading the charge airing this to essentially derail the stonewall.  The two of them have no fucks to give and aren't in any way beholden to the orange dummy.  It's pretty embarrassing they had to do this.  

[Ghost of LL 15531]

9 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I kind of want to vomit after thinking this, but on this McConnell is right.  It's telling that him and Romney are leading the charge airing this to essentially derail the stonewall.  The two of them have no fucks to give and aren't in any way beholden to the orange dummy.  It's pretty embarrassing they had to do this.  

I hate McConnell.  He has destroyed the Senate as an effective deliberative body.  He is a hypocrite of unbelievable proportions.  He has undermined America's political culture and the ability of Congress to act as an effective branch of government.  And he's done so all in furtherance of a white-christian-nationalist vision for America that is noxious to anyone with any moral code developed after the seventeenth century.

But Mitch McConnell knows what he's doing.

Romney's shouting it from the rooftops that "Trump is preventing a deal on the border."  But what McConnell is doing is infinitely more clever.  And more cynical.  He's saying, "we all need to get in line and support Trump, and that prevents us from doing anything on the border because Trump wants to campaign on that."  He's saying the same thing as Romney.  But he's doing so from the purported position of supporting Trump.  And in so doing, he gives it greater weight, credibility, and creditability.

It's fucking cynical as hell.  But in this instance, it works to the benefit of issue positions I favor.  So I'll support it.

[tokamak 6391]

4 hours ago, dieucla98 said:

I miss the days when I was young and thought this shit didn't matter. Now it's just a year long anxiety attack every 4 years.

Yours stops for 3 years at a time? What's your secret?

[Biff Tannen 45660]

4 hours ago, dieucla98 said:

I miss the days when I was young and thought this shit didn't matter. Now it's just a year long anxiety attack every 4 years.

Or every year from 2017-2020.

[Biff Tannen 45660]

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

largest gun-safety legislation in 30 years

Which was still basically nothing, IIRC

[HenryJames 66031]

[atomheartbevo 89617]

5 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

i'm finding the relationship between the border situation and the general election fascinating, because trump is meddling from the outside (have we ever seen a candidate do this?)

Nixon and the LBJ/Vietnam talks.  Reagan and Carter (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_October_Surprise_theory) and I’m sure there are others.

[Superhero 8824]

4 hours ago, HenryJames said:

That’s right. I forgot the majority of MAGA are dumb, uneducated, and even worse, ignorant. No wonder they’re calling behind.

If they had just put the money in an index fund instead of buying Trump NTFs, they would have gotten a 20% return instead of continue being broke. 

Edited January 26 by Superhero

[Biff Tannen 45660]

The most bewildering part of that is the spike during Covid. Like what?  That shouldn’t even be a political thing. Just look around you. The world is shut down. But I’m sure the economy is looking great!

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20389]

Wisconsin Republicans just passed a bill calling for banning abortion after 14 weeks.  That's got to play into Biden's hand.
 

[David Dennison 18837]

6 hours ago, HenryJames said:

Money well spent.

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13570]

13 hours ago, HenryJames said:

Tell me Republicans are hysterical binary drama queens without telling me Republicans are hysterical binary drama queens.

[Biff Tannen 45660]

6 minutes ago, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

Tell me Republicans are hysterical binary drama queens without telling me Republicans are hysterical binary drama queens.

Or that they are just stupid and don’t understand anything other than “Go Team!”

[MonkeyDoughnut 10226]

15 hours ago, Superhero said:

I don't understand the talk about economic uncertainty.

Yes there was inflation, but it's down to 3.4%. Unemployment is at a record low. Minimum wages have gone up. Stock market for those fortunate to have 401(k) or brokerage accounts has been going gangbusters.

Can someone explain it to me like I'm a 5 year old?

I think for most it's just what they are seeing most: car prices way up, home prices up, property insurance through the roof, medical insurance up, food prices higher, eating out way higher, etc. Its tough to reconcile with "things are improving" when getting hit on a micro level.

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13570]

8 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

The most bewildering part of that is the spike during Covid. Like what?  That shouldn’t even be a political thing. Just look around you. The world is shut down. But I’m sure the economy is looking great!

I used to compare GDP and unemployment rate of the last 3 years of the Obama administration to the first 3 years of Trump's to eliminate the negative effect of the pandemic and show the Trump administration did nothing substantial for the the economy other than add 8 trillion in debt. Guess I should compare Obama's last 4 to Trump's first 4. 

[Biff Tannen 45660]

48 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

I think for most it's just what they are seeing most: car prices way up, home prices up, property insurance through the roof, medical insurance up, food prices higher, eating out way higher, etc. Its tough to reconcile with "things are improving" when getting hit on a micro level.

The bolded is definitely true.  Mine jumped almost 25% this past month. 

That said, so much of this is based on corporate projections instead of reality.  There's also a lag with data catching up to real world business practices.  But that's for another thread.

[gmr548 16575]

14 hours ago, HenryJames said:

My favorite part of this chart is the spikes and dives before inauguration, as if the election of Trump or Biden changed the economy on E Day +1. Negative partisanship is wild.

[bolverk 29644]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

My favorite part of this chart is the spikes and dives before inauguration, as if the election of Trump or Biden changed the economy on E Day +1. Negative partisanship is wild.

The same applies to the economy going into the shitter the day of Biden's election, prior to the inauguration. Of course, plenty of Democrats reversed their judgment as soon as the inauguration was held, but their appraisal also continued upward (logically) as the world opened back up with the vaccine.

[Texas Jeff 1942]

I don't understand the talk about economic uncertainty.
Yes there was inflation, but it's down to 3.4%. Unemployment is at a record low. Minimum wages have gone up. Stock market for those fortunate to have 401(k) or brokerage accounts has been going gangbusters.
Can someone explain it to me like I'm a 5 year old?

One of the candidates argues like a five year old. That’s pretty much all you need to know.

[Neonmoon 38129]

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4440504-2024-election-biden-leads-trump-growing-gender-gap-quinnipiac-poll/

Women don't like their rights being taken away? NO WAY

[YChang 3441]

8 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4440504-2024-election-biden-leads-trump-growing-gender-gap-quinnipiac-poll/

Women don't like their rights being taken away? NO WAY

Really hope this sentiment keeps growing 

[Chuckie Finster 22692]

1 minute ago, YChang said:

Really hope this sentiment keeps growing 

I'm sure going to war against Taylor Swift will help the issue.

[wildcat09 29337]

14 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4440504-2024-election-biden-leads-trump-growing-gender-gap-quinnipiac-poll/

Women don't like their rights being taken away? NO WAY

Publicly declaring a "holy war" on Taylor Swift will fix this for them.