2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[aggie08 21841]

1 hour ago, Rex Kramer said:

he is the furthest thing from Trump a white male can get

Out of curiosity, what does a Trump white male look like? Seems like he attracts angry losers of all shapes and sizes.

[South Austin 53235]

1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

What the hell happened in Arizona

Well, this whole thing is just who knows who. Then over here you have favoritism.

[Foosters 18286]

1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

Out of curiosity, what does a Trump white male look like? Seems like he attracts angry losers of all shapes and sizes.

I think Rex is unfamiliar with the 4chan / Incel wing of MAGA. Or maybe he just refers to them as "outliers"

[Nicole44 22326]

Just now, South Austin said:

Well, this whole thing is just who knows who. Then over here you have favoritism.

I lost a fortune trying to get rid of my oceanfront timeshare there. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

articulate, young, midwest, high brand recognition.  vance is trump's best choice.

[SizzleChest 8314]

nvm

Edited July 15 by SizzleChest

[David Dennison 19567]

2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

articulate, young, midwest, high brand recognition.  vance is trump's best choice.

Maybe, but no one cares about the VP candidate.

 

Edited July 15 by David Dennison

[4th&Five 42018]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Maybe, but no one cares about the VP candidate.

 

unless there's a good chance they'll be president sometime in the next 4 years.

[David Dennison 19567]

4 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Well, this whole thing is just who knows who. Then over here you have favoritism.

[Dahobbs 18349]

22 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Absolute outliers. You people have lost your minds. 

I don't think you understood what I wrote. The term outlier has a specific meaning in statistics. I don't believe the term really fits here because these sorts of individuals would be expected in any large enough sample. They are rare (extremely so). But they aren't unexpected or abnormal observations. 

[David Dennison 19567]

Just now, 4th&Five said:

unless there's a good chance they'll be president sometime in the next 4 years.

I'm still not sure that's true.

[hookem2010 2700]

Perhaps we should start caring, seeing as the two presidential candidates are 80 year-old men. One who occasionally appears to be sundowning and the other who brags about passing neurologic exams and subsists on McDonalds.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34106]

"appears"

[mchookem 16779]

27 minutes ago, deech said:

 

 

JD Vance nailed it.

so... has this been verified? i mean i know maga won't believe it regardless, but im just wondering if this has been out in the ethos for a while now and confirmed legit for normal people. or has Ron been hanging onto it waiting for the right time? sonder how he got it... is the 'friend' a pol, or a never-trumper, would be great if s/he could confirm it...

i know, wishful thinking.  

i sent Joe some $$ last night after his remarks, but if the dems have literally already given up, fuck them. 

[Macanudo 13331]

10 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

What the hell happened in Arizona

Arizona happened in Arizona.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13741]

In a debate, Vance would say that he's completely in favor of a woman getting away from a violent husband. But you have to remember that those like Vance only believe this IF there can be a criminal conviction of the violent act(s). Without that, they believe the marriage should stay intact for the children.

[Js1 87224]

3 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Perhaps we should start caring, seeing as the two presidential candidates are 80 year-old men. One who occasionally appears to be sundowning and the other who brags about passing neurologic exams and subsists on McDonalds and was almost assassinated

fify

[MrBig 5651]

17 minutes ago, C-Man said:

So this is inaccurate?

15102 is Bethel Park. It’s like if someone from Pflugerville donated and it got listed as Austin but with their Pflugerville zip code. Google “Pittsburgh 15102” and Bethel Park shows up. 

[deech 2402]

3 minutes ago, mchookem said:

so... has this been verified? i mean i know maga won't believe it regardless, but im just wondering if this has been out in the ethos for a while now and confirmed legit for normal people. or has Ron been hanging onto it waiting for the right time? sonder how he got it... is the 'friend' a pol, or a never-trumper, would be great if s/he could confirm it...

i know, wishful thinking.  

i sent Joe some $$ last night after his remarks, but if the dems have literally already given up, fuck them. 

I believe they are confirmed as they came from one of his law school classmates McLaurin who is a Democrat in Georgia.

 

https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2022/04/19/americas-hitler-old-j-d-vance-message-turns-up-in-heated-senate-primary/

 

 

[Rex Kramer 1538]

17 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Out of curiosity, what does a Trump white male look like? Seems like he attracts angry losers of all shapes and sizes.

Makes no sense with my context. I won’t play this game with you. I agree with you. 

[Dahobbs 18349]

23 minutes ago, MrBig said:

I know there are other people named Thomas Crooks who live in Pittsburgh, but the $15 donation was from 15102 which is Bethel Park where the shooter is from. The donation being on Biden’s Inauguration Day leads me to believe it was done as a bet or something related to the inauguration since he registered as a Republican later on. 

This would make a lot of sense. 

12 minutes ago, C-Man said:

So this is inaccurate?

It is accurate, but not inconsistent with it being the shooter. You can actually pull more information from the image, including the address. 

2506 Milford drive is owned by Mathew and Mary Crooks, and has been since 1998. Given that the shooter's name was Thomas Matthew Crooks, I feel pretty confident he is (was) their son. 

https://www2.alleghenycounty.us/RealEstate/Sales.aspx?ParcelID=0318S00020000000&SearchType=2&CurrRow=0&SearchName=&SearchStreet=milford&SearchNum=2506&SearchMuni=&SearchParcel=&pin=0318S00020000000

 

[Rex Kramer 1538]

11 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think you understood what I wrote. The term outlier has a specific meaning in statistics. I don't believe the term really fits here because these sorts of individuals would be expected in any large enough sample. They are rare (extremely so). But they aren't unexpected or abnormal observations. 

They’re abnormal observations, extremely rare, and outliers. I don’t think they’re unexpected and never have been. 

[babysdaddy 2731]

1 hour ago, Rex Kramer said:

Mainly the debate. I don’t think they’re fired up. 

I love this hard push to call the mental patient a Republican when he was 20 years old, so his affiliation is meaningless. But it’s clear yall are trying really hard to obfuscate he is the furthest thing from Trump a white male can get, and very well could’ve been progressive. 

The 'republican' thing might be a red herring.  Here's a few other republicans that are sad that lunatic didn't kill Trump (Joe Scarborough, Ana Navarro, Rick Wilson, among others).  The republican label is being used to defend against him being identified as a dem/liberal and radicalized by their rhetoric. 

One thing I haven't seen discussed although Hugo kinda mentioned it, is the environment that created this attempted assassin.  Social worker and a psychologist for parents.  I'd pull on that thread if I was an investigator.

Vance is a Thiel acolyte.  Trump's rationale there I'm guessing is to help pierce the blue wall because it does nothing else to expand the electorate.  But it will bring Thiel $ in.

[Derka 6403]

…

Edited July 15 by Derka

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

This would make a lot of sense. 

It is accurate, but not inconsistent with it being the shooter. You can actually pull more information from the image, including the address. 

2506 Milford drive is owned by Mathew and Mary Crooks, and has been since 1998. Given that the shooter's name was Thomas Matthew Crooks, I feel pretty confident he is (was) their son. 

https://www2.alleghenycounty.us/RealEstate/Sales.aspx?ParcelID=0318S00020000000&SearchType=2&CurrRow=0&SearchName=&SearchStreet=milford&SearchNum=2506&SearchMuni=&SearchParcel=&pin=0318S00020000000

 

Quote

Crooks’ father, Matthew Crooks, has declined to comment to the media, saying he was waiting to speak to law enforcement. Records show Matthew Crooks and his wife, Mary, are both licensed counselors in Pennsylvania. They also have a 22-year-old daughter.

https://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/what-we-know-about-the-gunman-who-opened-fire-at-trump-rally/KEQHSEVSS5A55NYDYQPQHDX52A/

[Aqua Buddha 14807]

59 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Good luck with that Trump.

They should ask how it worked out for Trump’s kids.

[Underdog 29210]

5 hours ago, Js1 said:

Duh, it was Vance or Burgum.  Scott, Vivek, Rubio and Noem were delulu for thinking it was going to be them. 

 

[Dahobbs 18349]

13 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

They’re abnormal observations, extremely rare, and outliers. I don’t think they’re unexpected and never have been. 

Something being rare as in having a lower frequency of appearance doesn't make it abnormal. If I had a 1,000 sided die, the chance of any one side coming up could be call rare. But observation of that occurrence wouldn't be unexpected or outside what we would predict. If the results aren't unexpected, then they aren't really outliers. An outlier in the US would be no shootings for a year or perhaps many shootings concentrated in a small area. Those observations would be unexpected and suggest a major chance or an error in the data. A young white male engaging in a shooting would not. 

Edited July 15 by Dahobbs

[Rex Kramer 1538]

7 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Something being rare as in having a lower frequency of appearance doesn't make it abnormal. If I had a 1,000 sided die, the chance of any one side coming up could be call rare. But observation of that occurrence wouldn't be unexpected or outside what we would predict. If the results aren't unexpected, then they aren't really outliers. An outlier in the US would be no shootings for a year or perhaps many shootings concentrated in a small area. Those observations would be unexpected and suggest a major chance or an error in the data. A young white male engaging in a shooting would not. 

Not gonna read nonsense. It’s an outlier. 

[tx 3 putt 78730]

30 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

In a debate, Vance would say that he's completely in favor of a woman getting away from a violent husband. But you have to remember that those like Vance only believe this IF there can be a criminal conviction of the violent act(s). Without that, they believe the marriage should stay intact for the children.

 

Free ad material 

[bolverk 30362]

33 minutes ago, Foosters said:

I think Rex is unfamiliar with the 4chan / Incel wing of MAGA. Or maybe he just refers to them as "outliers"

Rex played this same game in a discussion about some of the beliefs of rural Texas evangelicals a couple of months ago, in spite of what another guy and I (both of us grew up in Southern Baptist churches in West Texas) were telling him. 

He's either a) lying, b) has his head in the sand, or c) has no clue.

[Dahobbs 18349]

3 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Not gonna read nonsense. It’s an outlier. 

You're such a child. You don't even know what that word means. 

[Al_4_ISU 12648]

40 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

articulate, young, midwest, high brand recognition.  vance is trump's best choice.

Isn't he from Appalachia?

[tx 3 putt 78730]

 

[Js1 87224]

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

Rex played this same game in a discussion about some of the beliefs of rural Texas evangelicals a couple of months ago, in spite of what another guy and I (both of us grew up in Southern Baptist churches in West Texas) were telling him. 

He's either a) lying, b) has his head in the sand, or c) has no clue.

He’s lying

[David Dennison 19567]

1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

I wish we lived in a country where those quotes matter.

But we live in post-MAGA America. Politics is entertainment and politicians are celebrities. What they think or say doesn't really matter anymore.

[tx 3 putt 78730]

I’m curious if they even did any vetting of Vance ?

Is Ohio in play and Trump needed to make this move to pick up the state ?

what's going to come out once the deep dive into his background begins ?  I’ll guess closet homo 

[Rex Kramer 1538]

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

Rex played this same game in a discussion about some of the beliefs of rural Texas evangelicals a couple of months ago, in spite of what another guy and I (both of us grew up in Southern Baptist churches in West Texas) were telling him. 

He's either a) lying, b) has his head in the sand, or c) has no clue.

No I did not. I told you what UMC members believed and that your Israel protectionist horseshit theories as it applies to those evangelicals is not at all accurate. I was surprised to learn what I did, but don’t believe that’s a primary reason we support Israel.  

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

You're such a child. You don't even know what that word means. 

I know that if I were to draw a chart, the number of would-be US Presidential / presidential candidate assassins in the last 43 years is exactly one. That meets the criteria for an outlier using any fucking definition you want. You cannot stand when people argue with you, and routinely die on hills, but you’re wasting my time. Just give up. 

[aggie08 21841]

2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I wish we lived in a country where those quotes matter.

But we live in post-MAGA America. Politics is entertainment and politicians are celebrities. What they think or say doesn't really matter anymore.

Yep. Vince McMahon (Trump) just made Vance's character a face, so years of actions and quotes as a heel no longer matter. He's good now.

[bolverk 30362]

4 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Isn't he from Appalachia?

He grew up in Middletown (midway between Cincinnati and Dayton). Despite that, the area has strong connections to West Virginia and Eastern Kentucky. I only know because I'm adopted and have since met my birthmother and some of her family who grew up there. The whole clan, along with thousands of other poor hillbillies, moved en masse from working in the coal mines of Appalachia to that area to work in the steel mills. My 93yo birthmom's mom has some interesting stories to tell about her Depression-era childhood and lugging buckets of water to their shanty up in a holler before they made the move.

[Pancho 46358]

MSNBC just showed a snipped of Biden’s interview with Lester Holt

 

Sweet Jesus. He does way better with crowds and energy.

 

[bolverk 30362]

4 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

No I did not. I told you what UMC members believed and that your Israel protectionist horseshit theories as it applies to those evangelicals is not at all accurate. I was surprised to learn what I did, but don’t believe that’s a primary reason we support Israel.  

I'm not going to get into it again with you, but you're absolutely wrong when you say that evangelical beliefs in the Book of Revelations and prophecies about the Apocolypse have nothing to do with their support for Israel. I never said that was the primary reason we, collectively as a nation, generally support them.

[Vegas64 714]

2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

He grew up in Middletown (midway between Cincinnati and Dayton). Despite that, the area has strong connections to West Virginia and Eastern Kentucky. I only know because I'm adopted and have since met my birthmother and some of her family who grew up there. The whole clan, along with thousands of other poor hillbillies, moved en masse from working in the coal mines of Appalachia to that area to work in the steel mills. My 93yo birthmom's mom has some interesting stories to tell about her Depression-era childhood and lugging buckets of water to their shanty up in a holler before they made the move.

I guess I'll read Hillbilly Elegy now, just to see what exactly this guys has in experiences or what informs this Vice President's beliefs. I think it should be more or less an honest fascimile, given it was published before he was famous and/or a politician, right? By all accounts this guy was a reasonable guy (e.g. despised Trump, intelligent by way of Yale/law and not being born into it) but sold out for selfish ambition?

[Rex Kramer 1538]

2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I'm not going to get into it again with you, but you're absolutely wrong when you say that evangelical beliefs in the Book of Revelations and prophecies about the Apocolypse have nothing to do with their support for Israel. I never said that was the primary reason we, collectively as a nation, generally support them.

I’m UMC. Technically, I’m evangelical. The Book of Revelations and apocalyptic forecasts are laughable. All of my peers are UMC, Presby, Baptist or non-denom Bible-based. I don’t know one who believes in this stuff, at least as it pertains to the application of their every day life. It is literally never cited in my peers’ universal support for Israel. So, if my anecdotes are not in line with the rest of the country, I’m blissful in my ignorance in how most Christians think. 

I will say, I don’t think like most Christians on a variety of topics, so just add this one to the fucking list. 

[Dahobbs 18349]

17 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

I know that if I were to draw a chart, the number of would-be US Presidential / presidential candidate assassins in the last 43 years is exactly one. That meets the criteria for an outlier using any fucking definition you want. You cannot stand when people argue with you, and routinely die on hills, but you’re wasting my time. Just give up. 

Let's take your hypothetical chart. There are have been four successful presidential assassinations over the ~250 years the US has been around. So, had he been successful, one every 43 years or so sounds pretty consistent with our observed data. Of course, there have also been numerous foiled attempts, including ones against H.W., Clinton, G.W., Obama, and Biden. These are rare events, but I'm guessing if you plot them by year, 2024 doesn't look anything like an outlier. 

Anyway, I just question the use of the term because it suggests an unexpected result. You agree this is not unexpected, so it sounds like we generally agree. 

Edited July 15 by Dahobbs

[chainsaw 10305]

It was probably ghostwritten and full of embellishment. The guy's an elitist from ivy leagues.

[Dnaguy 12694]

JD Vance gives moderates the cover they need to pull the lever for trump… even though he’s a craven opportunist who’s using Maga and the dummies to rapidly ascend to power.

Trump surviving an assassination further helps and makes his base even more energized.

The only real hope here is that Biden steps down.

Between the document case being thrown out, the assassination attempt, and now this, I can see no path for Joe to win. He has to realize that a 5% change with a wild card democrat is better than his -10% chance of winning.

[bolverk 30362]

Just now, Vegas64 said:

I guess I'll read Hillbilly Elegy now, just to see what exactly this guys has in experiences or what informs this Vice President's beliefs. I think it should be more or less an honest fascimile, given it was published before he was famous and/or a politician, right? By all accounts this guy was a reasonable guy (e.g. despised Trump, intelligent by way of Yale/law and not being born into it) but sold out for selfish ambition?

I didn't read the book either (saw the fictionalized movie later). When Hillbilly Elegy was published, there was a long essay by him (I think) or a long excerpt in the Atlantic (I think) that discussed the struggles of lower-middle-class whites in small, rapidly deindustrializing towns that did a fairly convincing job of discussing the social ills (political beliefs) associated with economic decay. Initially, it seemed to fit much of the MAGA crowd and why they'd support a big city New Yorker, but his general thesis pretty much falls apart today for other sections of the GQP base. It kind of reads like David Brooks's Bobos in Paradise but for "white trash" in some of its sociological observations. 

[aggie08 21841]

11 minutes ago, Pancho said:

MSNBC just showed a snipped of Biden’s interview with Lester Holt

 

Sweet Jesus. He does way better with crowds and energy.

 

A huge consequence of the shooting is that the conversation and pressure for him to step aside are effectively over (until his next major fuck up). 

Fuckity fuck.

Edited July 15 by aggie08

[jimmyjazz 47262]

17 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

I know that if I were to draw a chart, the number of would-be US Presidential / presidential candidate assassins in the last 43 years is exactly one. That meets the criteria for an outlier using any fucking definition you want.

Wait . . . I thought you two were slap-fighting over people wanting to kill "liberals", not POTUS or POTUS candidates?