2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[David Dennison 18344]

4 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

We really gonna do this again?

We are talking about politics, no?

[Hank Kingsley 20544]

Feels like most people "voting" for RFK Jr.  in these polls will probably go to Trump. Wouldn't be surprised if he drops out and endorses Trump at some point. 

 

[Red Five 40571]

I enjoyed Lester Holt asking Biden what he is going to personally do to tone down the rhetoric.

Yeah Joe. What are YOU gonna do? We’re sick of you celebrating violence.

['stache 21725]

48 minutes ago, immamac said:

Just like the headlines post debate of no Biden dip after the debate. 

People are so fucking checked out it's unreal. One of the candidates had an assassination attempt and the unengaged are still like yeah fuck that I'm not voting I don't want to get shot. 

I think it has more to do with how far apart they are on the issues and how much of an absurd lying fuck donald trump continues to be on a daily basis. I just don't think there are many people on the fence about Jan. 6, his continued lies about elections, his calls to suspend the constitution, nationwide abortion bans, and Project 2025 in general. His followers are stuck in their support for him, the democrats and never trumpers who are actually going to vote aren't switching because a bullet grazed the guys ear. It's not like it changed any of what he's said and done over the last decade. It's why I've continually been skeptical of the so-called moderate or undecided voters in this cycle. I just don't see any notable swings happening at this point. I think most likely voters have already decided that they like him, they hate him, or they genuinely like Biden/democrats. To be undecided at this point means you genuinely don't care and probably aren't voting anyway. This is very different than normal where politicians are just trading boring soundbites on boring policies. Project 2025, Jan 6, trump in general, are anomalies that you didn't just not notice unless you truly are completely checked out, and I just don't see those people voting anyway. 

Edited July 16 by 'stache

[Derka 5783]

 

[ConferenceRoom 6123]

Are there polls asking if people are going to vote? Not how, but if. Are there historical data for that question? 

[aggie08 21167]

16 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Feels like most people "voting" for RFK Jr.  in these polls will probably go to Trump. Wouldn't be surprised if he drops out and endorses Trump at some point. 

 

I was holding out hope that Trump's camp was stupid enough to believe that RFK would steal more votes from Biden than Trump, but, judging by the leaked phone call, seems like they're all on board to do what's best to ensure a Trump victory. Cool.

[Hank Kingsley 20544]

2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

To be undecided at this point means you genuinely don't care and probably aren't voting anyway. 

Or it means that people are dumb, which is the most likely explanation. 

Dems need to stop expecting reason and common sense from voters to poo-poo these poll numbers. It's time to get serious and do something. 

 

['stache 21725]

2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Or it means that people are dumb, which is the most likely explanation. 

Dems need to stop expecting reason and common sense from voters to poo-poo these poll numbers. It's time to get serious and do something. 

 

I just don't know what that means at this point. Best that comes to mind is plaster Vance's past comments on Trump all over the internet, TV, and billboards. If voters aren't already aware of Project 2025, or are and either like it or don't care, I just don't know what might even work anymore. I wish people cared more about the fucking Supreme Court, that alone should make you want a democrat in the white house for a long while.

[Hank Kingsley 20544]

It means they need to promote Kamala. We are at the Uma Thurman adrenaline shot phase of this race. 

[SubliminalHorn 6515]

Harris-Buttigieg ticket. Let’s go

[Hank Kingsley 20544]

 

[Aqua Buddha 14450]

23 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

It means they need to promote Kamala. We are at the Uma Thurman adrenaline shot phase of this race. 

Yes, something needs to happen.  I'd be OK with Harris with Cooper or Brashears at this point.  Would rather have Whitmer but it is what it is.

If Trump wins, Vance is basically the incumbent in 2028.

[SimonBolivar 10858]

Seems like instead of searching for something like Harris or gambling on her we're instead [checks notes] giving up. 

 

 

Bold strategy

[6th Street 6324]

At this point looking like 300 EVs for Trump unless Biden steps down. He simply cannot bring out the vote like he did in 2020 and he has lost all momentum.

[huge 3785]

Just now, 6th Street said:

He simply cannot bring out the vote like he did in 2020 and he has lost all momentum.

Who could have possibly seen this coming?

[956 Worldwide 34190]

Dorothy Thompson’s essay “who goes Nazi” has been referenced here a lot.  Hello, JD Vance. 
 

[Bateshorn 9853]

7 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

At this point looking like 300 EVs for Trump unless Biden steps down. He simply cannot bring out the vote like he did in 2020 and he has lost all momentum.

No, No.  You don't understand:  There is a close knit circle of advisors and family members who REALLY understand what America wants, and see that Biden is actually WILDLY popular, all polls are wrong, and he's got the Mo, Jack. 

The vast bulk of his party being in the dumps, depressed, and resigned to a second Trump term and future GOP autocracy is just Elite (TM) talk. 

 

Edited July 16 by Bateshorn

[David Dennison 18344]

13 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

At this point looking like 300 EVs for Trump unless Biden steps down. He simply cannot bring out the vote like he did in 2020 and he has lost all momentum.

[Hank Kingsley 20544]

Trump was probably winning before the debate, definitely after the debate, and a little more after he got shot. 

There needs to be a serious momentum shift and that is impossible with Biden at the top of the ticket. He had a good press conference! Doesn't matter. Policy doesn't matter. Anti-Trump rhetoric doesn't matter. It needs to be something simple and clear for the electorate to see. And that's removing Biden and calling up Harris. 

It's an unprecedented move. But we live in unprecedented times. Anything less will not move the needle. 

 

[texasdago 7544]

Speaking of weird polls

[YGIFS 19445]

1 hour ago, texasdago said:

So 25% undecided... allegedly... seems like worthless data.

Like they took 20 years to update their margin of error, like they took 20 years to figure out not everybody can answer their home land-line on a Thursday at 3pm.  

Polling groups need to start figuring out how to differentiate "Undecided/Don't Know" & "Not Voting."  ~40% of citizens 18+, just aren't gonna vote. Most of them don't want to admit that, so they hide behind "I'm Undecided."  Well north of 100,000,000 people just aren't voting, and the vast majority know it already.  There's zero statistical chance that, using their numbers, 25% of about 65mm people are gonna wake up Election Day with an informed decision.  I don't know the Stats solution to this (was never a good grade for me).  But there are way too many examples over the last ten years that prove their models just aren't what they used to be. 

30% for R, 30% for D (EC decides a tight one), and 40% in the middle who ask, "What if my election lasts longer than four hours, do I call my doctor?"   

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

2 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Speaking of weird polls

all it takes is for some mediocre left wing celebrity with a mediocre left wing following to retweet that to make it come out like that.  you could have a single tweet from jon lovett saying "lol look at this poll," and then this is what you'd get.

[Bateshorn 9853]

2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Trump was probably winning before the debate, definitely after the debate, and a little more after he got shot. 

There needs to be a serious momentum shift and that is impossible with Biden at the top of the ticket. He had a good press conference! Doesn't matter. Policy doesn't matter. Anti-Trump rhetoric doesn't matter. It needs to be something simple and clear for the electorate to see. And that's removing Biden and calling up Harris. 

It's an unprecedented move. But we live in unprecedented times. Anything less will not move the needle. 

 

This is the hard part for committed progressives and political junkies to understand:  Biden was never particularily popular, but represented a digestible alternative for low information swing voters to Trump's invective and boobish presidential term.  They could swallow his age then.  Increasingly, they can't now, and by staying the race and showing the candidate energy of a near corpse, he's letting the GOP slowly convince the same low information swing voters that maybe they can live with another Trump term, since they are clearly stating they don't think Biden is capable as either a candidate or a elected official.

[David Dennison 18344]

13 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

No, No.  You don't understand:  There is a close knit circle of advisors and family members who REALLY understand what America wants, and see that Biden is actually WILDLY popular, all polls are wrong, and he's got the Mo, Jack. 

The vast bulk of his party being in the dumps, depressed, and resigned to a second Trump term and future GOP autocracy is just Elite (TM) talk. 

 

"Before next fall you're in need of a serious attitude adjustment, young man. You'd better get your priorities straight. And watch out with that other crowd you're runnin' with. Don't think I haven't noticed."

[Hank Kingsley 20544]

Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

all it takes is for some mediocre left wing celebrity with a mediocre left wing following to retweet that to make it come out like that.  you could have a single tweet from jon lovett saying "lol look at this poll," and then this is what you'd get.

No, no. Mike Lee got OWNED on his Twitter poll. Ignore the other data and ignore what you see. Biden's got this. 

 

[mchookem 15744]

2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

all it takes is for some mediocre left wing celebrity with a mediocre left wing following to retweet that to make it come out like that.  you could have a single tweet from jon lovett saying "lol look at this poll," and then this is what you'd get.

texags:

[David Dennison 18344]

5 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

This is the hard part for committed progressives and political junkies to understand:  Biden was never particularily popular, but represented a digestible alternative for low information swing voters to Trump's invective and boobish presidential term.  They could swallow his age then.  Increasingly, they can't now, and by staying the race and showing the candidate energy of a near corpse, he's letting the GOP slowly convince the same low information swing voters that maybe they can live with another Trump term, since they are clearly stating they don't think Biden is capable as either a candidate or a elected official.

With three and a half months to go, what are Joe Biden's odds of winning compared to Kamala Harris's?

Edited July 16 by David Dennison

[jimmyjazz 45328]

Trusting polls is a fool's errand.  They have been somewhat to wildly inaccurate over the past 10-15 years, if not longer.

This is not to say Biden can or will beat Trump.  It's my opinion that Kamala Harris can't, but that's conjecture.  I do agree that Trump had a decent shot prior to the debate, a better shot after the debate, and now it looks really bad for Biden.  (ISWYDT)

[huge 3785]

3 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

With three and a half months to go, what are Joe Biden's odds of winning compared to Kamala Harris's?

Kamala is no great alternative, but at least she is alive?

[Hank Kingsley 20544]

Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Trusting polls is a fool's errand.  They have been somewhat to wildly inaccurate over the past 10-15 years, if not longer.

Agreed, but a legitimate trend with Trump is that he outperformed the final polls in 2016 and 2020.

[texasdago 7544]

5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Trusting polls is a fool's errand.  They have been somewhat to wildly inaccurate over the past 10-15 years, if not longer.

This is not to say Biden can or will beat Trump.  It's my opinion that Kamala Harris can't, but that's conjecture.  I do agree that Trump had a decent shot prior to the debate, a better shot after the debate, and now it looks really bad for Biden.  (ISWYDT)

Kind of my point.  Anyone can pull a poll out of their ass.  What we've seen consistently in the past couple of years is polls tend to be wrong.  And, while we're not in a great place right now, there are 3 1/2 months to go.  Trump or JD can go on some crazy lunatic binge from now until the election that may impact voting, turnout, etc. 

And, again, if you think Trump is going to question the legitimacy of a Biden win (which he will question it), wait until someone like Harris or Newsom or whatever wins.  Not saying they are winning - saying what would happen.  It will be Trumpy to 11.  Why not make Trump louder at 10?  Because he goes to 11.

Hillary Clinton has vaulted to a double-digit advantage in the inaugural ABC News 2016 election tracking poll, boosted by broad disapproval of Donald Trump on two controversial issues: His treatment of women and his reluctance to endorse the election’s legitimacy.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-vaults-double-digit-lead-boosted-broad-disapproval/story?id=42993821

Edited July 16 by texasdago

[4th&Five 41394]

11 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

This is the hard part for committed progressives and political junkies to understand:  Biden was never particularily popular, but represented a digestible alternative for low information swing voters to Trump's invective and boobish presidential term.  They could swallow his age then.  Increasingly, they can't now, and by staying the race and showing the candidate energy of a near corpse, he's letting the GOP slowly convince the same low information swing voters that maybe they can live with another Trump term, since they are clearly stating they don't think Biden is capable as either a candidate or a elected official.

i totally understand all of this and i still can't believe people are willing to go back to the shitshow that is trump. only a second term will be 10x worse.

[Bateshorn 9853]

5 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

With three and a half months to go, what are Joe Biden's odds of winning compared to Kamala Harris's?

Biden's chances are worse than Harris, IMO.  She's not an ideal choice, but at least she's vibrant and gives everyone who hates Trump but doesn't want an 81 year old man who can barely read a teleprompter an option. Attach a Andy Brashear or Roy Cooper as VP, and hope Trump can't control himself and reverts to the mean.  

[Zonahorn 8056]

 

[Pancho 44004]

So it looks bad for Biden and Kamala can’t win but we shouldn’t trust the polls?

 

Dems are winning in the senate polls. The question is why can’t Biden get those same votes. Yes, there’s time but what isn’t the Biden team doing now that they could be doing to get those votes back? 

With Vance as the VP, I think that’s an opening for Dems. I just hope Dems don’t sit back and say “see, they won’t vote for that ticket so we’re good” which means the Dems will do exactly that.

[Bateshorn 9853]

1 minute ago, 4th&Five said:

i totally understand all of this and i still can't believe people are willing to go back to the shitshow that is trump. only a second term will be 10x worse.

That's the problem:  The party (non necessarily Biden's inner circle, who I think are trapped in a confirmation bias loop of epic proportions) is just in disbelief that this is happening and swing voter's are considering Trump again. And it's creating a denial problem that is trapping the party. 

The first thing you have to do is accept swing voters will vote for Trump again, even after voting for Biden in 2020.  Then work the problem backward from there.

[David Dennison 18344]

Just now, Bateshorn said:

Biden's chances are worse than Harris, IMO.  She's not an ideal choice, but at least she's vibrant and gives everyone who hates Trump but doesn't want an 81 year old man who can barely read a teleprompter an option. Attach a Andy Brashear or Roy Cooper as VP, and hope Trump can't control himself and reverts to the mean.  

It's too bad you can't convince Barack Obama to run for VP.

Oh well.

[6th Street 6324]

5 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Biden's chances are worse than Harris, IMO.  She's not an ideal choice, but at least she's vibrant and gives everyone who hates Trump but doesn't want an 81 year old man who can barely read a teleprompter an option. Attach a Andy Brashear or Roy Cooper as VP, and hope Trump can't control himself and reverts to the mean.  

At this point a Harris/Beshear ticket is the only viable option for generating some momentum and taking the headlines back.

There is no catalyst for Biden to win back share at this point. 

[jimmyjazz 45328]

5 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Dems are winning in the senate polls. The question is why can’t Biden get those same votes.

Bear with me here . . . what if the senate polls are wrong, too?

I don't see a great strategy here.  I see several long shots.  Take one, I guess.  I just want to see some fight, and so far, I don't.  Same old same old.

[texasdago 7544]

7 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

At this point a Harris/Beshear ticket is the only viable option for generating some momentum and taking the headlines back.

There is no catalyst for Biden to win back share at this point. 

WTF is Beshear... like I tend to pay attention to politics and have never heard that name.  So you think those who don't pay attention will know that name?  

[mdmost 42611]

11 minutes ago, Pancho said:

So it looks bad for Biden and Kamala can’t win but we shouldn’t trust the polls?

 

Dems are winning in the senate polls. The question is why can’t Biden get those same votes. Yes, there’s time but what isn’t the Biden team doing now that they could be doing to get those votes back? 

With Vance as the VP, I think that’s an opening for Dems. I just hope Dems don’t sit back and say “see, they won’t vote for that ticket so we’re good” which means the Dems will do exactly that.

Man, I weirdly feel some just want a fractured government and gridlock. They don't trust Biden can do the job but they're fine with their senator being a Democrat. Who knows anymore. 

[Bateshorn 9853]

This is kinda shaping up to be the Women Vs. Men election.  And the Democratic party is not giving women a lot to work with, while the Trump and the GOP are just straight pumping Bro Energy into the XY system. 

But sure, sit back and hope a moribund candidacy and Dobbs will drag the party across the line in MI, WI, and PA. 

[Bateshorn 9853]

2 minutes ago, texasdago said:

WTF is Beshear... like I tend to pay attention to politics and have never heard that name.  So you think those who don't pay attention will know that name?  

It's not who he is, as much as what he looks like, this is America afterall:

[David Dennison 18344]

Just now, Bateshorn said:

This is kinda shaping up to be the Women Vs. Men election.  And the Democratic party is not giving women a lot to work with, while the Trump and the GOP are just straight pumping Bro Energy into the XY system. 

But sure, sit back and hope a moribund candidacy and Dobbs will drag the party across the line in MI, WI, and PA. 

Cool. If the fear of a national abortion ban won't do it, what will? A wildly unpopular female candidate? A white dude as her running mate? What will get women to vote for a Democrat at the top of the ticket?

[texasdago 7544]

This thread has become so much hand-wringing... going to take a break

[Bateshorn 9853]

Just now, David Dennison said:

Cool. If the fear of a national abortion ban won't do it, what will? A wildly unpopular female candidate? A white dude as her running mate? What will get women to vote for a Democrat at the top of the ticket?

Because the Wildly Unpopular Old Man at the top of the ticket is? 

[David Dennison 18344]

Just now, texasdago said:

This thread has become so much hand-wringing... going to take a break

BTW, Andy Beshear is the governor of Kentucky.

[C-Man 26895]

4 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

This is kinda shaping up to be the Women Vs. Men election.  And the Democratic party is not giving women a lot to work with, while the Trump and the GOP are just straight pumping Bro Energy into the XY system. 

But sure, sit back and hope a moribund candidacy and Dobbs will drag the party across the line in MI, WI, and PA. 

They really shouldn't need anything more than Roe v Wade to see the writing on the wall if Democrats lose this election but ...

[C-Man 26895]

Just now, David Dennison said:

BTW, Andy Beshear is the governor of Kentucky.

I had to look that up. I don't take that as a positive but we are only talking about VP here. As long as he's able to competently spar with JD in a VP debate, I'm down to clown.