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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46109

Posted
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1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

I don't buy that for a second. Too many blue states.

I don't know if you've been paying attention, but state level politics no longer matter.  We are run by the executive and the judicial branches.

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South Austin

South Austin 52577

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50 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

In 2020 it was $16 billion, which was twice that of 2016.  

 

22 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

That's just federal elections. Now add in all the other elections in this country.

It's huge business.

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Pancho

Pancho 44967

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5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Do we actually care about 538?  Asking for many friends.

I haven’t since 2020 which is why I asked if we are back on them or nah. 

 

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Indomitable

Indomitable 80

Posted
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30 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I don't know if you've been paying attention, but state level politics no longer matter.  We are run by the executive and the judicial branches.

This is the exact wrong attitude. With the developments at the federal level, it's more important than ever to direct your efforts at the state level. Even more so local.

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DixonHur

DixonHur 11364

Posted
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41 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

That's just federal elections. Now add in all the other elections in this country.

It's huge business.

So is oligarchy... 

Do you really think the GOP billionaire class cares about K Street, or the state equivalents?

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46109

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11 minutes ago, Indomitable said:

This is the exact wrong attitude. With the developments at the federal level, it's more important than ever to direct your efforts at the state level. Even more so local.

Sorry, I didn't convey that correctly.  I was trying to refer to state and local elections to the US Congress.  I'm not commenting on state positions, but I agree there is all kinds of importance there, for obvious reasons.

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

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even worse: 538 is g elliot, who i like more than the nates, but who was the slowest to admit massive screw ups in 2020 when he was at the economist. denial for a long time.  so i'd say of the major folks (again, even though he is the most likeable), it's probably run by meh-est of the guys reliability-wise.

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Old Freak Nasty

Old Freak Nasty 821

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Posted (edited)

I believe 538 gives less weight to polling at this early stage in favor of economic markers and I believe incumbency.  It's hard to know whether incumbency matters anymore for Biden though.  I think as we get closer to the election and the model starts weighing polling more then the prediction will shift.

I still don't think the polls are accurate and are too favorable to Trump.  I think the RFK polling is not necessarily crazy people who are more aligned to Trump and that will end up going "home" to Trump in November, but rather pure protest polling by people likely to vote Biden and RFK is the "loudest" protest polling you can do.  Polling for Maryanne Williamson doesn't register as a protest.  I think a big bucket of RFK votes are actually going to vote Biden in the end.  It's one way to reconcile the Senate/Presidency polling discrepancy.

Well, that's what I'm going to choose to believe as I go to sleep tonight because it sounds like something Hunter would be telling his father right now.

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gmr548

gmr548 16610

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3 hours ago, David Dennison said:

Has anyone articulated a real path for anyone else?

I mean the path is whatever the DNC/Democratic Party wants it to be. It's not like this requires passing legislation. They can do what they want.

If 100% of the party, or close enough to it, were unified around replacing Biden as the nominee they would do so. There does not appear to be anything approaching broad consensus on taking action. That is the hurdle. 

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Red Five

Red Five 40881

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Truth. Back in the day, you might go days without hearing about the president, even on the news. And even then it would be like “George Bush met with a contingent of Canadian officials at the White House today. Nothing fucking happened because politics are boring. Back to you Bob.”

Then you would go back to not thinking at all about the president.
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gmr548

gmr548 16610

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3 hours ago, Pancho said:

Schiff told a big bunch of donors over the weekend (in the Hamptons) that Dems are turbofucked down ballot if Biden stays in. 

 

I fully acknowledge Schiff is a Pelosi bro

This is where I think legitimate alarm crosses the line into typical Democratic handwringing.

Senate candidates have been and continue to outperform Biden in polls, often significantly. Democrats Trump is not a beloved figure that is going to have super strong coattails; his record is just the opposite. The Democrats mathematically cannot win the Senate without winning the presidency anyway. Democrats have been seeing increased support in the generic House ballot and could benefit from a likely popular desire to have a check on Trump.

Biden sinking is obviously not good for downballot Dems, but it's not apocalyptic.

And as a segway, Democrats should be absolutely plowing money into the House right now. They have to flip it. A Trump presidency is bad anyway and honestly thy can inflict the majority of their planned damage to this country through executive action and judicial confirmations in the Senate. But a trifecta is the actual end of democracy scenario.

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Texaus

Texaus 377

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9 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Can someone copy and paste the article? Behind a paywall. 

Spoiler

What Biden’s Defenders Ask Us to Believe

The president’s allies demand that the American people ignore their own eyes and ears.
Photo of Joe Biden in front of microphones
Kent Nishimura / Getty
JULY 16, 2024, 1:40 PM ET
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Last night, NBC aired an interview that Lester Holt conducted with Joe Biden, the most recent in a series of unscripted events designed to ease voters’ worries after the president’s disastrous June 27 debate. It is hard to imagine this latest performance doing that. Biden was defensive and rambling. When Holt asked how he could be sure there wouldn’t be a future repeat of his debate “episode,” the president at first looked confused, asking, “What happened?” and then let out an indecipherable noise before claiming no such repeat would occur.
This was only Biden’s latest less-than-confidence-inspiring public appearance. During an interview with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on July 3—also defensive, also rambling—Biden said “I don’t think I did” watch his own debate. During last week’s NATO summit, he initially introduced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as “President Putin” and later referred to Kamala Harris as “Vice President Trump.” On Sunday night, the president delivered an Oval Office address in response to the failed assassination attempt against Donald Trump. Although his remarks seemed heartfelt, his delivery was flagging and often garbled. He repeatedly called the “ballot box” the “battle box.” He seemed to come perilously close to saying that we need to “make America great again” before realizing his mistake.
Biden defenders tend to dismiss these kinds of moments as mere gaffes, or as a result of his stutter. In the face of ever more dismal polling and voters’ growing concerns about the president’s cognitive ability, a spin machine of Biden aides and alliescontinues to insist that Democrats should stick with their candidate—that he is the person best situated to beat Trump and that he is capable of serving another four years. With each day, their growing list of talking points and excuses becomes only more implausible and irrational. These arguments require—sometimes implicitly, sometimes outright—that the American people believe a variety of assertions about the president that defy our own observations and experiences, and stretch the bounds of common sense.
We are asked to believe that there are two Bidens. The one voters see in public might frequently look exhausted and confused. He struggles to remember names and details, and he answers easy questions (say, about abortion) with bizarre non sequiturs (say, about murderous immigrants). By contrast, people who spend time with the president insist he is sharp as a tack and in command of the issues. He allegedly maintains such a packed schedule that he leaves his younger aides trying to keep up with him.
These claims imply that it is not the job of America’s highest elected official to inspire public confidence and project competence and strength to U.S. citizens, allies, and enemies. The fact that Biden looks frail and that we often struggle to make out what he’s saying is irrelevant. That he reminds us of our ailing parents and grandparents is also irrelevant. All that is relevant is his impressive policy record, and his commitment to serving another four years.
Biden’s defenders encourage us to believe that extemporaneous public speaking is not an important part of the president’s job. He frequently has trouble communicating without a script, and has come to rely on teleprompters even in small group settings, but we are told that this is perfectly understandable and “not unusual.” Nor is Biden’s reliance on a teleprompter, which he sometimes has issues reading from, a sign that anything has changed about his mental fitness. And when he accidentally reads a cue out loud—during a call with the Congressional Progressive Caucus on Saturday, he reportedly read a note from his staff to “stay positive you are sounding defensive”—these mistakes are just ordinary slipups.
We are asked to believe that it’s okay for presidents to keep bankers’ hours. Biden’s aides tell reporters that they try to keep important events within the window when he is consistently sharp and focused, from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. It should not concern us that the president can be relied on for only a quarter of the day; we should not be worried about crises that might crop up at other times, including overnight. Although he misses the occasional meeting with a world leader because he needs to go to bed, this is apparently not an issue. We are asked to believe that running a presidential campaign is more taxing and stressful than being president, and that Biden can at least handle the latter, even though the former seems to leave him tired to the point of incoherence.
We are asked to believe that the nuclear briefcase is safe in Biden’s hands, and will be for another four years. Although the United States is currently entangled in Ukraine’s conflict with Russia and although Taiwan looms as a flash point with China, we should have no anxiety about Biden’s ability to act decisively and with good judgment in the event of a foreign-policy crisis. It is estimated that the president might have only minutes to respond to a nuclear incident; Biden, despite his hourly limitations, will perform with competence should he be woken up in the middle of the night with the world on the brink of Armageddon.
We are asked to believe that Biden’s apparent cognitive difficulties are not indicative of an underlying condition, and that he does not need to prove his cognitive health to the American public. Even though a Parkinson’s doctor has visited the White House eight times in eight months, and even though Biden and his team have given inconsistent accounts of the president’s medical exams since the debate, and even though Parkinson’s experts have saidthat he appears to have potential symptoms of the disease, the public should accept Biden’s refusal to take a cognitive exam and release the results.
We are asked to believe that the June 27 debate was just one bad night, that presidents can have 90-minute stretches of befuddlement. We are asked to believe that this will not happen again, even though those close to Biden have told reporters that similar incidents have been happening more frequently since at least this spring, and even though George Clooney, a high-powered fundraiser for the president, has said that the Biden we saw on the debate stage is the same Biden he has seen behind the scenes.
We are asked, by the president himself, to believe that those who want him to withdraw from the race are “elites.” This is despite the fact that 85 percent of voters in a recent ABC poll said that Biden is too old to be president, and 67 percent said that he should exit the race; 56 percent of Democrats said the same.
We are asked to believe that trying to force Biden out of the race—to potentially be replaced by Kamala Harris, who would be the first Black female president if elected—is an agenda being pushedprimarily by white men, one that ignores the will of voters of color. We are told that Biden is the favored candidate of the Black community, and that Black Americans will be furious if he withdraws, even though a recent Economist/YouGov poll found that 49 percent of Black Americans think Biden “probably” or “definitely” should step aside, compared with 34 percent who think he should remain in the race.
We are asked to believe that Biden is the Democratic candidate who can beat Donald Trump, despite the fact that the president was behind in the polls even before the debate. As a matter of fact, Biden and his allies say, we shouldn’t trust the polls. Polls that say Biden is bleeding minority voters are wrong. Polls that show Biden losing must-win swing states are wrong. Polls that reveal Biden’s horrendous approval rating are wrong. Any polls that are bad are wrong.
We are asked to believe that Biden remains the best candidate to beat Trump after the attempt on his opponent’s life, even as that event—and Trump’s defiant response to it—only further highlights the apparent gap between the vitality of the two candidates.
We are asked, implicitly at least, to believe that Biden will turn the reins over gracefully and voluntarily to Harris in the event that he becomes unable to perform his duties in a second term. Even though he clings to power now, he won’t in the future.
And what are we asked not to believe? We are asked not to believe our own instincts, our own senses, our own head and heart: If you read any of the numerous reports that say Biden’s own allies believe he has no chance of winning in November, then what you read is wrong. If Biden looks too old to you, then what you see is wrong. If Biden sounds too weak and too confused to you, then what you hear is wrong. The problem is you, and your expectations and standards for a sitting American president.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears,” Orwell wrote in 1984. In 2024, this remains, as Orwell put it, the “most essential command.”
 
Tyler Austin Harper is an assistant professor of environmental studies at Bates College and a contributing writer at The Atlantic.

 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26523

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Okay I like this Uncle Joe speaking at the NAACP convention right now.

He sounds like he’s ready to fight!

He’s doing a great job right now. If we could get this Joe Biden the convention, through the election and at another debate in September, he wins.

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29377

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Crossposting from the SCOTUS thread:

They also leaked yesterday that they're working on a nationwide rent control proposal.  If Joe's answer to all the doomer loser shit from the caucus is to just announce a huge laundry list of popular and necessary policies and reforms, I'm here for it. 

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29377

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Also, for all his supposed senility, Biden going back to the progressive wishlist when things are looking down shows better political instincts than Pelosi and Schiff have ever shown.  For all his problems as a candidate, Biden's theory of politics has always been way above replacement level compared to pretty much any other moderate Democrat. I've been worried that he lost that with Ron Klain gone, but it doesn't look like he has. 

AOC needs to be running the whole fucking party within the next 5-10 years or it deserves to be bulldozed. It's wild how bad most Dems are at understanding politics compared to her.

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Js1

Js1 85543

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10 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Biden going back to the progressive wishlist when things are looking down shows better political instincts than Pelosi and Schiff have ever shown.

He’s a damn good politician when his back is against the wall. He ain’t stupid 

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Captainant

Captainant 27740

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23 minutes ago, bluto said:

That rent control proposal wouldn’t even have the dem votes to pass it I bet. Real estate/big bank lobby would crush that quickly. 

It's not even controlling rent - isn't the proposal to simply not give tax breaks if they're increasing rent by over a certain threshold like 5% YoY or something?

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The Hot Dog Buffet

The Hot Dog Buffet 1291

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3 minutes ago, Captainant said:

It's not even controlling rent - isn't the proposal to simply not give tax breaks if they're increasing rent by over a certain threshold like 5% YoY or something?

Outside of tax code, I really don't know what the Federal government is supposed to do about rent.

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19452

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Whoever said he looked like a racist CareBear really nailed it. 

According to CareBear lore, if you use their cartoons to reference their height against other known objects/human characters.  They're 3'tall, so like 'vance short.'  However, they're much more cheery than J.D. and they don't have beards, just fur and this cleanly distributed.  Using similar scalability, Ewoks were a little taller, closer to Vance's height.  Their moppy fur did have a pronounced density around their faces.  Plus they're really fucking mean and aggressive for half the movie.  So I think he's a Maga Ewok.  

J.D., wouldn't Trump being "America's Hitler", make you "America's Goring"?  Do you know original punishment Goring was sentenced to.  Hint, Mike Pence knows this one.  

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'stache

'stache 21845

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Maga : Is Vance even Christian ???

 

IMG_1107.jpeg

Yikes, another libtard assassination plot. At least they gave the shooter a laser scope this time.

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