2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[TwiceHorn 32108]

18 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

"borderline."  You're adorable.

Brisket has now officially out-Hugo'ed Hugo.

[Voluminous Banality 1162]

2 hours ago, immamac said:

Look at it this way. There is no other candidate out there who can genuinely forget that Donald Trump had an assassination attempt this election cycle. 

Biden will treat Donald Trump just like he did in 2020 because he thinks it's still 2020. We liked that result, we will like this result. 

 

1 hour ago, immamac said:

You haven't been paying attention this week have you? The RNC was a fucking disaster and they are being brazen about their extremism. The RFK Jr leak is a disaster. We are still in the early innings.

The only people who give a shit about Biden's mush brains are people who are clutching their pearls, no one is not voting for him because of his decline. The fact that it's identified as a driver for apathy so early in the campaign is also going to play to the campaigns strengths where they can get out the vote regardless of candidate. 

America does need a ton of reform to get out of this extremist doom loop we are currently in, but I don't think doubling down on extremism is the right way to go. Trump was starting to lean into the moderates with the Biden debate flub and that was the huge worry. Now it seems especially post-assassination attempt they are going to full send on the absolute most insane extremist positions which is going to have a fairly drastic negative impact on moderate turnout. 

 

Love the optimism. Biden is going to roll just as soon as he figures out the playbook.

 

[David Dennison 19570]

2 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

I obviously can't prove this, but I just fundamentally disagree. Every single Biden lock today would still vote for any Democrat nominee to try to stop Trump. Another nominee at least gives the potential of swaying some of the "anyone but these two chucklefucks" crowd. Call him/her the "anti-Trump and probably will still be alive in 4 years" candidate. Sexy name appeal right there.

And, as others have mentioned, if the nominee IS going to be Biden, the White House has to stop gaslighting (god, I hate that word) us about his condition. 

Yeah, but isn't it likely that any Biden replacement immediately becomes a chucklefuck?

[South Austin 53270]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Yeah, but isn't it likely that any Biden replacement immediately becomes a chucklefuck?

At least not an old chucklefuck, which is apparently all that the deciding electorate cares about.

[David Dennison 19570]

We are besieged by chucklefucks.

[aggie08 21850]

4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Yeah, but isn't it likely that any Biden replacement immediately becomes a chucklefuck?

Of course. But the bar is exceptionally low at this point. "Don't look like you're about to keel over, and complete consecutive sentences that are both coherent and not unhinged."

[TwiceHorn 32108]

22 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Over half the country fucking hates the guy that will probably win the election. It's insane.

*more than

[Bateshorn 9991]

1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

Of course. But the bar is exceptionally low at this point. "Don't look like you're about to keel over, and complete consecutive sentences that are both coherent and not unhinged."

Shit. If you can competently read off a teleprompter, you've doubled Biden's capacity right now.   Being able to speak in complete sentences without notes is Einstein level stuff for the Dem Candidate. 

[immamac 44420]

10 minutes ago, Voluminous Banality said:

 

 

Love the optimism. Biden is going to roll just as soon as he figures out the playbook.

 

Juan is a fucking gamer. You will see. 

[huge 3831]

16 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

I obviously can't prove this, but I just fundamentally disagree. Every single Biden lock today would still vote for any Democrat nominee to try to stop Trump. Another nominee at least gives the potential of swaying some of the "anyone but these two chucklefucks" crowd. Call him/her the "anti-Trump and probably will still be alive in 4 years" candidate. Sexy name appeal right there.

And, as others have mentioned, if the nominee IS going to be Biden, the White House has to stop gaslighting (god, I hate that word) us about his condition. 

This!

The press conference lying is not great.  So you're running against a ridiculous liar and your tactic is to.......lie to everyone?

[Pam Cummings 9886]

1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

Shit. If you can competently read off a teleprompter, you've doubled Biden's capacity right now.   Being able to speak in complete sentences without notes is Einstein level stuff for the Dem Candidate. 

I've heard people speak of taking the keys away from grandpa but why stop at Joe? Why not just say anyone over 70 can't participate(at least by holding office) anymore?

[David Dennison 19570]

Just now, Pam Cummings said:

I've heard people speak of taking the keys away from grandpa but why stop at Joe? Why not just say anyone over 70 can't participate(at least by holding office) anymore?

Or, I don't know, stop voting for the elderly.

[Guadaloopy 11139]

33 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

I think y’all need to accept the fact that Joe Biden is going to be the nominee. 

And I'm OK with that.  I'd honestly be OK with the Dennis Reynolds sex doll in a suit as the nominee.  I'd much rather have someone sit there and do jack shit for the next four years than have a president spew insanity at 2AM on Twitter/X from a West Wing shitter.  Do we honestly think the next four years of Biden would be a significant downgrade from these past four?   

[Old Freak Nasty 821]

The election still seems to be framed as Biden vs. Trump.  It's too early for most people to think of it as Not Trump vs. Trump.  But our assholes will get tighter as November approaches and hopefully the election is framed more in that manner as the days tick by.

[Aqua Buddha 14809]

Everybody polling better against Trump than either Biden or Harris:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2024/07/17/new-polling-bolsters-dump-biden-push-00168943

[Js1 87290]

5 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Everybody polling better against Trump than either Biden or Harris:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2024/07/17/new-polling-bolsters-dump-biden-push-00168943

Honestly, these need to be taken with a HUGE grain of salt.

Everyone but Biden/Harris is basically "generic Dem" in polling - that will quickly change as the hate engine revs up, everything about their lives/policies come out, etc. 

[wildcat09 29601]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Honestly, these need to be taken with a HUGE grain of salt.

Everyone but Biden/Harris is basically "generic Dem" in polling - that will quickly change as the hate engine revs up, everything about their lives/policies come out, etc. 

I said it before, but every single person who thinks Biden is easily replaceable with a different candidate who they imagine will suddenly become much more popular also thought a few years ago that DeSantis would easily get the GOP nomination.

[Js1 87290]

2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

I said it before, but every single person who thinks Biden is easily replaceable with a different candidate who they imagine will suddenly become much more popular also thought a few years ago that DeSantis would easily get the GOP nomination.

I haven't dove deep into these polls, but I'd imagine the "do you have an opinion of this person" for each of the non-Biden/Harris candidates is probably super high in the "i don't know" category because NOBODY DOING THESE POLLS KNOWS WHO THEY ARE. 

We see this every cycle - OMG Ted Cruz is losing to "generic Dem" but then wins in November, because Generic Dem/GOP is not an actual candidate. 

[4th&Five 42026]

Edited July 17 by 4th&Five

[C-Man 27834]

Here’s the money shot from last night’s Daily show appearance by Bill O’Reiily:

[Js1 87290]

Why did Stewart have a serial sexual harasser from Fox News on his show just to spew GOP talking points? 

[Fastbreak 4057]

Why did Stewart have a serial sexual harasser from Fox News on his show just to spew GOP talking points? 

It was bizzare. Next week just have Satan as the main guest.

[Nicole44 22326]

4 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

I just wish if they would all do it at the same time or get behind him 100%. Stop with half measures. Now you have a leaked phone call with a group of Dems and Biden scolding Jason Crow Bronze Star recipient. I mean just fucking A—either everyone says step aside it at one time or they need to get behind him. 
 

im pissy. I’m at an urgent care for extreme pain on my right front lower side and wifi isn’t great. 
 

what Biden said to Crow in leaked call that happened on Saturday before assassination attempt:

"I put NATO together. Name me a foreign leader who thinks I'm not the most effective leader in the world on foreign policy. Tell me! Tell me who the hell that is! Tell me who put NATO back together! Tell me who enlarged NATO, tell me who did the Pacific basin! Tell me who did something that you've never done with your Bronze Star like my son—and I'm proud of your leadership, but guess what, what's happening, we've got Korea and Japan working together, I put AUKUS together, anyway!"

————-

Either everyone makes a unified front in telling him to step aside or they need a shut the fuck up. Repubs do not need to attack Joe when his own party is kicking him in dick hourly. 

[Dahobbs 18399]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Why did Stewart have a serial sexual harasser from Fox News on his show just to spew GOP talking points? 

The same reason they've interviewed each other before: (1) he does get views, and (2) to actually get a response out to the nonsense. Each time they've been on air together, the clips coming out of it are Stewart dunking on him. That's not nothing in the current media environment. 

[Dahobbs 18399]

4 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

I just wish if they would all do it at the same time or get behind him 100%. Stop with half measures. Now you have a leaked phone call with a group of Dems and Biden scolding Jason Crow Bronze Star recipient. I mean just fucking A—either everyone says step aside it at one time or they need to get behind him. 
 

im pissy. I’m at an urgent care for extreme pain on my right front lower side and wifi isn’t great. 
 

what Biden said to Crow in leaked call that happened on Saturday before assassination attempt:

"I put NATO together. Name me a foreign leader who thinks I'm not the most effective leader in the world on foreign policy. Tell me! Tell me who the hell that is! Tell me who put NATO back together! Tell me who enlarged NATO, tell me who did the Pacific basin! Tell me who did something that you've never done with your Bronze Star like my son—and I'm proud of your leadership, but guess what, what's happening, we've got Korea and Japan working together, I put AUKUS together, anyway!"

————-

Either everyone makes a unified front in telling him to step aside or they need a shut the fuck up. Repubs do not need to attack Joe when his own party is kicking him in dick hourly. 

Everything Biden said is factually correct. What are you mad about there?

Edited July 17 by Dahobbs

[C-Man 27834]

The same reason they've interviewed each other before: (1) he does get views, and (2) to actually get a response out to the nonsense. Each time they've been on air together, the clips coming out of it are Stewart dunking on him. That's not nothing in the current media environment. 

At least Stewart has the sharpness to crack back at people like O’Reilly. Meanwhile, Jake Tapper and others bring on the “opposing viewpoint” and allow these folks to just spew lies one after the other with zero pushback. Insanity.

[wildcat09 29601]

This is somewhat tangential to the discussion of whether Biden should drop out, but there's a good new blog post by a political scientist discussing why vibes have shifted against Democrats.  I want to note this part in particular:

Quote

Back in the early days of the Monkey Cage, my friend John Sides used to regularly write pieces throwing cold water on whatever the hot generalization on the hot topic was among excitable political commentators. We used to jokingly call him Cold Take Sides. I don’t think I’m telling tales out of school - it was a very valuable social role! Vibe-slingers have a pronounced tendency to get carried away with themselves, over-estimating the general importance of this immediate twist or that particular turn, while forgetting that much of the truth about politics is structural. Not all the truth. Sometimes, the fundamental framing of politics actually shifts - and this can have enormously important consequences! My colleague, Hahrie Han, who does a different kind of political science, has a lot to say about this. But it shifts far less often than commentators would have you believe.

This does not mean that the Vibes are unimportant. They are rarely consequential in the ways that commentators claim they are, but when they are, they are very consequential indeed. And they may sometimes be consequential in significant but not worldshaking ways. But - being a sort-of political scientist, I think you need a good working definition of what “the Vibes” are and are not, in order to make progress.

Here’s mine. “The Vibes” are no more and no less than a given political elite’s theory of public opinion. This theory provides some information about public opinion, when the political elite is not completely disconnected from it. It usually provides much more information about the beliefs and ideology of the relevant political elite - what they think the public believes, what they want the public to believe, and (more rarely, since few of us are given to deep self-reflection), what they don’t want the public to believe but have to accept that it does.

This means that the Vibes provides real information. But on average they tell you much more about a particular elite’s beliefs and priorities, than about the underlying state of public opinion itself (there is variation. Some people are more careful about marking their claims to external evidence that might correct their impressions, and about taking counter-arguments seriously).

Vibes are also important to understand as weapons in battles between different factions of elites. Elites sometimes play a quite important role in politics! They have many resources - financial, intellectual, coalitional - to bring to bear. You should absolutely pay attention to battles to shape what John Kenneth Galbraith famously described as the “conventional wisdom.” But you shouldn’t treat the moves in these battles as bald evidence of what the public thinks.

The vibes around the Biden debate are not actually about public opinion of Biden, they're about what establishment California Democrats and wealthy Democratic donors and the fucking owner of the New York Times think public opinion is. And I cannot emphasize this enough, those people are more divorced from public opinion than anyone any of us have ever met in our lives. 

[Js1 87290]

8 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

im pissy. I’m at an urgent care for extreme pain on my right front lower side and wifi isn’t great. 

Hate it when the victim fights back 

[Nicole44 22326]

13 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Everything Biden said is factually correct. What are you mad about there?

It’s the fact that stuff keeps getting leaked. Drip drip drip. Schiff says step down. Drip drip drip. Details of phone call leaked. Drip drip drip. It either has to be 100% effort to unite behind him or 100% to replace him. 
 

cool cool. Urgent care sending me to the ER. Fuck my life. 

Edited July 17 by Nicole44

[Dnaguy 12723]

1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

This is somewhat tangential to the discussion of whether Biden should drop out, but there's a good new blog post by a political scientist discussing why vibes have shifted against Democrats.  I want to note this part in particular:

The vibes around the Biden debate are not actually about public opinion of Biden, they're about what establishment California Democrats and wealthy Democratic donors and the fucking owner of the New York Times think public opinion is. And I cannot emphasize this enough, those people are more divorced from public opinion than anyone any of us have ever met in our lives. 

All I know is what I saw with my eyes.

Im about as blue as you can get and still be allowed to live in Texas and get invited over to friends houses.

Joe Biden is not fit to be the presidental nominee running against the demise of our democracy and our countries foundation. However, given the choice between him and the guy with Satan’s horseshoe (hoof shoe?) up his ass…. I’ll take Biden.

Part of being a nominee is communicating your vision for the future. Joe is a good president, now.

Running for President requires selling your vision and I don’t see how he can given his current state. And I’m not knocking him or saying he’s senile. He gets tired, forgets shit, slips up just like anyone who’s that age. But the rigors of the job are so great I just can’t see him having enough gas in the tank quite frankly.

[mdmost 44110]

I think Schiff is terrified of what Trump getting back in the Oval Office could mean for him. Trump will definitely come after him. 

[Js1 87290]

9 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

This is somewhat tangential to the discussion of whether Biden should drop out, but there's a good new blog post by a political scientist discussing why vibes have shifted against Democrats.  I want to note this part in particular:

The vibes around the Biden debate are not actually about public opinion of Biden, they're about what establishment California Democrats and wealthy Democratic donors and the fucking owner of the New York Times think public opinion is. And I cannot emphasize this enough, those people are more divorced from public opinion than anyone any of us have ever met in our lives. 

Not to mention, no offense to us, what the average voter thinks.  *We* are not average voters - we are highly educated and informed.  We are following everything to the minute.

There's a reason campaigns don't gear up big time until Labor Day - the average voter is not paying attention, still. 

[wildcat09 29601]

I have zero expectation of Joe still having the job at the end of the next term. I'm sure most people don't. I also think it should be easy to make the case to undecided voters why that doesn't matter and Joe doesn't have to be the one to make that case. 

[Dahobbs 18399]

7 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

It’s the fact that stuff keeps getting leaked. Drip drip drip. Schiff says step down. Drip drip drip. Details of phone call leaked. Drip drip drip. It either has to be 100% effort to unite behind him or 100% to replace him. 
 

cool cool. Urgent care sending me to the ER. Fuck my life. 

Agree. Hope you feel better. 

[Kel Varnsen 8749]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Not to mention, no offense to us, what the average voter thinks.  *We* are not average voters - we are highly educated and informed.  We are following everything to the minute.

There's a reason campaigns don't gear up big time until Labor Day - the average voter is not paying attention, still. 

[aggie08 21850]

5 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I think Schiff is terrified of what Trump getting back in the Oval Office could mean for him. Trump will definitely come after him. 

Good. They should all be terrified. Appropriate fear. Act like it.

[Old Freak Nasty 821]

7 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

It’s the fact that stuff keeps getting leaked. Drip drip drip. Schiff says step down. Drip drip drip. Details of phone call leaked. Drip drip drip. It either has to be 100% effort to unite behind him or 100% to replace him. 
 

cool cool. Urgent care sending me to the ER. Fuck my life. 

Have you considered that this campaign to sideline Biden does not actually erode his electoral support in case he remains the nominee?  Maybe polling will show dips but I don't think it will be persistent.  I don't think people are thinking to switch to Trump or staying home or motivating MAGA turnout based on this movement turning public.

If this is at all stress related I'd suggest stop watching news channels and try to get some more time outdoors.  Hope you are fine.  Best wishes.

[wildcat09 29601]

9 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I think Schiff is terrified of what Trump getting back in the Oval Office could mean for him. Trump will definitely come after him. 

I think Schiff’s senate office should be moved to the darkest part of Alaska and he should be forced to give a proxy to Katie Porter to vote when he’s not present.

[WhatTheBuck 28941]

5 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

90% of Americans have no clue who Wes Moore is. 

At the 2008 Democratic National Convention:

I can’t say for sure if I saw that speech or not but I’ve definitely been aware of Wes Moore since 2010 when he was interviewed on The Colbert Report following the publication of his book The Other Wes Moore. He made quite an impression. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13743]

Biden is going to be out, so it's time that his campaign accepts it.

Outside of the named advisors to his campaign, I'm unsure that any Dem has endorsed that he remain. Pelosi keeps going on that she's waiting on Biden to make a decision. He's made a decision but it's obvious that she disagrees so she's going to keep asking for him to decide.

When Trump gets his post convention bump, the Dems will panic and Biden will drop out.

[DixonHur 11970]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

Juan is a fucking gamer. You will see. 

Damn right he is

[wildcat09 29601]

I probably have as many posts as anyone that regularly posts in CR, so I'm obviously a politics pervert, and I had to google him when I saw that poll and had one of those "oh yeah, I think I've heard of him before but know absolutely nothing about him" reactions.

[Texas Flood 1386]

19 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

I think Schiff’s senate office should be moved to the darkest part of Alaska and he should be forced to give a proxy to Katie Porter to vote when he’s not present.

Pass. She might as well be the one shipping off to Alaska for gifting her seat to the republicans.

[texasdago 7772]

Oh noooooo he's so popular now!?

Just stay on message and stop being whiners and the orange one loses again

...and 538's current electoral update

There's time

[immamac 44420]

Just now, texasdago said:

Oh noooooo he's so popular now!?

Just stay on message and stop being whiners and the orange one loses again

...and 538's current electoral update

There's time

I still think he was never not popular. I think there's valid concern over his ability to do the job. The debate was really really bad. He's had some meh interviews since then but nothing approaching the debate performance. If that was the par expectation from Biden I think this would be different he's proven multiple times since then that it was clearly a very bad night and very bad nights aren't common. 

[SydneyCarton 49534]

So now we're trusting polls?

[texasdago 7772]

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

So now we're trusting polls?

There's polls all over the place.  I'm saying there is no overwhelming evidence that its going to be a Trump landslide and that everyone is tying themselves up in knots when they should stay on message and focus.  Trump, Vance, Project 2025 and the usual clowshow have given us all we need.  Now the DNC needs to snap out of it and be on point with the message and Biden wins.

[texasdago 7772]

Also, he hasn't done a lick to make himself more likeable since the attempt.  He's tried to garner sympathy from his base by sticking a Barbie Dollhouse pillow on his ear.  Otherwise, he's the same dude with the same group of sycophants and he picked an unlikeable sycophant as his VP pick.

 

Edited July 17 by texasdago

[SydneyCarton 49534]

5 minutes ago, texasdago said:

There's polls all over the place.  I'm saying there is no overwhelming evidence that its going to be a Trump landslide and that everyone is tying themselves up in knots when they should stay on message and focus.  Trump, Vance, Project 2025 and the usual clowshow have given us all we need.  Now the DNC needs to snap out of it and be on point with the message and Biden wins.

I don't disagree with you. And I'm not even being critical of your post. Just the idea that "polls are shit" has permeated this thread for years now, and after several disasterous situations that all appear very bad for Biden, the idea of clinging to them as a reason that the room is not in fact on fire, and we are in fact fine, seems tenusous. 

At this point, I don't think any outcome of this election should suprise anyone, including a convincing Biden win, a no one gets to 270 count (somehow), all the way to a massive Trump victory. We can all find reasons for any of those outcomes that will make sense in retrospect. 

[texasdago 7772]

9 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

At this point, I don't think any outcome of this election should suprise anyone, including a convincing Biden win, a no one gets to 270 count (somehow), all the way to a massive Trump victory. We can all find reasons for any of those outcomes that will make sense in retrospect. 

Yup.  Which is why I think its insane people are automatically thinking it is the "Trump wins in a massive landslide" outcome without all signs pointing to it.  His base may turn out but there are more Nikky Haley republicans saying they're not voting Trump and others saying they'd rather stay home.  Biden is not immune to the same issues.