2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[troph 25270]

13 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I tend to think the vast majority of those voters are voting blue no matter who. By definition, the anti-Trump vote is driven by...Trump, not the other guy/gal.

Some, primarily men, will likely break off due to race and/or gender. I doubt you ultimately see a major white woman defection. This is a very different country for women than it was 8 years ago, as youl obviously well know, and the electorate has changed. The entire 18-25 cohort couldn't even vote in 2016. Most under 30's couldn't or didn't. Millions of older voters have died since then. Less white, on balance. There has not been a decades-long coordinated right wing media onslaught building hatred of Kamala Harris nationally like there was for Hillary Clinton.

you may be right about white suburban women. abortion changes everything.

I do think though there are moderate voting men who are undecided but only because they just haven't had the internal conversation but if they go to the ballot box they are never (again) trumpers. they may stay home because they don't even realize they think the quiet parts to themselves.

and you are correct about the HRC hate machine, but "not another black president" will light quickly. and then the question is will that increase turnout, maybe, maybe not. those may already be voting.

there's already a good chance some true racists are sitting out because of JDV.

who the fuck knows.

 

[Js1 87333]

If someone is willing to vote for America’s Hitler over a black woman, sorry to tell you that they likely weren’t voting Dem anyhow 

[Ghost of LL 15730]

43 minutes ago, troph said:

Maybe its PTSD from HRC and post-Obama backlash, but god I hope we don't run into a racist/sexist anti-Harris buzz saw (among suburban white women and others) in swing states. The number of women who might vote for a man (Dem) but will simply say a woman (per se) isn't qualified to be POTUS might shock us all.

I mean, all evidence to the contrary notwithstanding.  

Obama won in 2008 against a goddamned war hero.  He won again against a very generic Republican.  And both times, he won pretty handily.

Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 despite (1) having the distinct handicap of being Hillary Clinton, which is to say a person against whom a GOP rage machine had been pointed for the previous quarter-century (into which, it must be said, she played perfectly), (2) running a spectacularly bad campaign which saw her completely ignore the three states that everyone knew to be the tipping-point states in the EC, and (3) having Jim Comey announce the reopening of an FBI investigation without any real justification and in contravention of Bureau guidelines just ten days before election day.

I'm not saying there aren't racists and misogynists in America.  But I am saying that there's strong evidence that they aren't an electoral majority.

[Zonahorn 8079]

59 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

 

[troph 25270]

8 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I mean, all evidence to the contrary notwithstanding.  

Obama won in 2008 against a goddamned war hero.  He won again against a very generic Republican.  And both times, he won pretty handily.

Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 despite (1) having the distinct handicap of being Hillary Clinton, which is to say a person against whom a GOP rage machine had been pointed for the previous quarter-century (into which, it must be said, she played perfectly), (2) running a spectacularly bad campaign which saw her completely ignore the three states that everyone knew to be the tipping-point states in the EC, and (3) having Jim Comey announce the reopening of an FBI investigation without any real justification and in contravention of Bureau guidelines just ten days before election day.

I'm not saying there aren't racists and misogynists in America.  But I am saying that there's strong evidence that they aren't an electoral majority.

non sequitur.

Trump was the backlash. Pulse nightclub was the backlash. El Paso was the backlash. Charlottesville was the backlash. All PTSD inducing. The fact that Obama was a wildly popular two term president unleashed a furry of backlash.

HRC - yes I agree with all you said, and white women still didn't vote for her like you would think they should have. How women (who vote Dem from time to time) wouldn't vote for a qualified woman is PTSD inducing for some of us. If sexism wasn't a factor, even with the headwinds you mention she wins. Again, PTSD inducing.

so again, your response wasn't a response.

 

 

Edited July 18 by troph

[gmr548 16704]

Just now, troph said:

you may be right about white suburban women. abortion changes everything.

I do think though there are moderate voting men who are undecided but only because they just haven't had the internal conversation but if they go to the ballot box they are never (again) trumpers. they may stay home because they don't even realize they think the quiet parts to themselves.

and you are correct about the HRC hate machine, but "not another black president" will light quickly. and then the question is will that increase turnout, maybe, maybe not. those may already be voting.

there's already a good chance some true racists are sitting out because of JDV.

who the fuck knows.

 

On the undecided bit I am with you. I think there's a small but nontrivial chunk of voters that will move from D to R, or break from undecided to R, over race/gender. They are mostly men and mostly older. That's why I've mentioned my base case is that Kamala Harris, should she be the nominee, might be a half step back in horse race polling in the blue wall states in the short term. Not enough out there to really say though. It's possible likely gains among women, POC, and youth overcome that.

I just don't buy a major defection from women given the widening split among men and women politically. In particular with younger voters.

"Not another black president!" will sadly be a thing but 99% of those people are already proudly supporting Trump.

[The Royal We 3102]

14 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Giving Louisiana a chunk of East Texas that includes College Station probably improves the intelligence of both states. 

@sidis 

You motherfukers better chill. 

[WhatTheBuck 28943]

21 minutes ago, mdmost said:

But if she's POTUS already? That's why Biden should just step down. Make her POTUS so it's not a foreign concept to have a woman president. 

Joe is not going to let his legacy be that he served less than one full term as president. He deserves no less. If he has the grace to step aside then he’s earned the respect of letting him serve out his term with dignity and honor.

People are stupid but they’re not so stupid that they couldn’t see through the stunt of Joe resigning to make Kamala president in an attempt to confer upon her some sort of artificial incumbency. And what message would it send if the first female president got there by having it handed to her and not by winning a presidential election? I don’t see the public responding well to that.  

[gmr548 16704]

5 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I mean, all evidence to the contrary notwithstanding.  

Obama won in 2008 against a goddamned war hero.  He won again against a very generic Republican.  And both times, he won pretty handily.

Hillary Clinton won the popular vote in 2016 despite (1) having the distinct handicap of being Hillary Clinton, which is to say a person against whom a GOP rage machine had been pointed for the previous quarter-century (into which, it must be said, she played perfectly), (2) running a spectacularly bad campaign which saw her completely ignore the three states that everyone knew to be the tipping-point states in the EC, and (3) having Jim Comey announce the reopening of an FBI investigation without any real justification and in contravention of Bureau guidelines just ten days before election day.

I'm not saying there aren't racists and misogynists in America.  But I am saying that there's strong evidence that they aren't an electoral majority.

I'd also add that there being a slice of racists or misogynists in the electorate is not an inherent reason to not go forward with a mixed race, female nominee. That's "letting the terrorists win" so to speak.

You go out in a sprint campaign that just got a shot in the arm, draw a contrast with Trump, and win over the ~10% of voters still undecided. If 30% of them break GOP due to a nonwhite woman on the ballot, you need to make sure you get the other 70%.

[troph 25270]

Just now, gmr548 said:

On the undecided bit I am with you. I think there's a small but nontrivial chunk of voters that will move from D to R, or break from undecided to R, over race/gender. They are mostly men and mostly older. That's why I've mentioned my base case is that Kamala Harris, should she be the nominee, might be a half step back in horse race polling in the blue wall states in the short term. Not enough out there to really say though. It's possible likely gains among women, POC, and youth overcome that.

I just don't buy a major defection from women given the widening split among men and women politically. In particular with younger voters.

"Not another black president!" will sadly be a thing but 99% of those people are already proudly supporting Trump.

agree on second paragraph, past results will not be predictive of future results because of Dobbs.

I think "not another black president" may suppress the vote. Keep in mind, not everyone is overtly racist. most racist shit is pretty well hidden, even to the person doing racist shit. so I'm talking about simply dampening enthusiasm and having more "stay at home voters" than those that will switch.

It's like the HRC shit - total sexist bullshit in some cases with "I don't know, I just don't like her." that will happen with Harris on race and gender.

[Pancho 46438]

Halperin is making shit up

Deadline Whitehouse reported today that Dems are facing an enthusiasm problem in the blue wall states. Dem parties in those states are having trouble getting folks to do phone banks, help with mail campaigns, knock on doors and are begging the national party for some sort of enthusiasm. 

This campaign needs a shot in the arm and that’s Harris/Shapiro

 

[hobbes2702 13520]

11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

If someone is willing to vote for America’s Hitler over a black woman, sorry to tell you that they likely weren’t voting Dem anyhow 

Have you met white women before?

[DixonHur 11971]

52 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Jesus. Yes, that's the point, the lack of national name recognition for Shapiro is not as big of a deal because he is well known and liked in Pennsylvania. You may have heard that the results in PA are somewhat important in this election given the Electoral College implications. To the extent that a VP moves the needle, and I don't think it's very much, that is a value add over the Governor of KY who is a JAG in the minds of undecided voters in swing state.

Then just say he's a "popular governor in a swing state".  Why would you add that he has "name recognition"?  Of course he has name recognition in the state he governs.  

Or did I miss the part where people on here were clamoring for a candidate who didn't have name recognition in his/her home state?

Either way, I wouldn't worry about PA... it's also Taylor Swift's home state and she's free between August 20th and the election.  Swifties activate!

[Brisketexan 107063]

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

Halperin is making shit up

Deadline Whitehouse reported today that Dems are facing an enthusiasm problem in the blue wall states. Dem parties in those states are having trouble getting folks to do phone banks, help with mail campaigns, knock on doors and are begging the national party for some sort of enthusiasm. 

This campaign needs a shot in the arm and that’s Harris/Shapiro

 

Maybe we could just airdrop/scatter cocaine over said states.  Raid Don Jr's stash, drop it over 6 states = victory.

[troph 25270]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

I'd also add that there being a slice of racists or misogynists in the electorate is not an inherent reason to not go forward with a mixed race, female nominee. That's "letting the terrorists win" so to speak.

You go out in a sprint campaign that just got a shot in the arm, draw a contrast with Trump, and win over the ~10% of voters still undecided. If 30% of them break GOP due to a nonwhite woman on the ballot, you need to make sure you get the other 70%.

troph household LOVES Kamala (I don't recall if she was on the super tuesday ballot in 2020 but if she was my wife voted for her, or would have), we are all in. I'm just talking politics.

to your second point, that is an observant angle there - instead of thinking about the downsides to timing, if you come out swinging hard and land some punches (and have a nice october surprise) then you might catch the otherside a bit and there's not enough time to cycle through to the next iteration.

[gmr548 16704]

8 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Joe is not going to let his legacy be that he served less than one full term as president. He deserves no less. If he has the grace to step aside then he’s earned the respect of letting him serve out his term with dignity and honor.

People are stupid but they’re not so stupid that they couldn’t see through the stunt of Joe resigning to make Kamala president in an attempt to confer upon her some sort of artificial incumbency. And what message would it send if the first female president got there by having it handed to her and not by winning a presidential election? I don’t see the public responding well to that.  

It'd also be a legitimate governance problem. Both houses of Congress have to approve a VP appointment. GOP House isn't appointing shit. So now we're operating with no VP, meaning among other things there's no one to break 50-50 ties on things like judicial votes that need to be passed the rest of the term, and Mike Johnson a heartbeat from the Presidency. And it's just a look of dysfunction. No thank you.

Biden and team can govern, Kamala can campaign full time. She'd need to focus on that anyway.

Edited July 18 by gmr548

[Js1 87333]

I think like Pancho said, you can’t just be scared that people won’t vote for her bc she’s a black woman. This is not a usual election. Voters, especially the younger ones, have been screaming for a younger candidate. You have one. Roe is the biggest issue front and center. A woman can make that argument. 

You need the enthusiasm and the shot in the arm. An open primary isn’t going to do anything but cause hurt feelings. 

Edited July 18 by Js1

[troph 25270]

4 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

Have you met white women before?

if they swing (vote), they aren't reliable to a Harris ticket.

 

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

I think like Pancho said, you can’t just be scared that people won’t vote for her bc she’s a black woman. This is not a usual election. Voters, especially the younger ones, have been screaming for a younger candidate. You have one. Roe is the biggest issue front and center. A woman can make that argument. 

You need the enthusiasm and the shot in the arm. An open primary isn’t going to do anything but cause hurt feelings. 

it's a foregone conclusion this is the only way. Harris/Shapiro, maybe Harris/Kelly.

Edited July 18 by troph

[hobbes2702 13520]

Just now, troph said:

if they swing, they aren't reliable.

 

They’re cunts generally speaking.

[gmr548 16704]

4 minutes ago, troph said:

troph household LOVES Kamala (I don't recall if she was on the super tuesday ballot in 2020 but if she was my wife voted for her, or would have), we are all in. I'm just talking politics.

to your second point, that is an observant angle there - instead of thinking about the downsides to timing, if you come out swinging hard and land some punches (and have a nice october surprise) then you might catch the otherside a bit and there's not enough time to cycle through to the next iteration.

Think of it this way:
 

I mean, for fuck's sake, a board of Texas fans should understand the damage a backup QB can inflict.

[DixonHur 11971]

Has there been polling on Harris with white women?

White women voted for Obama in large numbers, so why would they not vote for Harris?

[Js1 87333]

1 minute ago, DixonHur said:

Has there been polling on Harris with white women?

White women voted for Obama in large numbers, so why would they not vote for Harris?

Mostly has just felt like Doomerism at its finest 

[Dnaguy 12731]

38 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Not endorsing his own vice president would be completely shitty. The only good thing that comes out of that is if Whitmer, Newsom, and any other options all throw their support behind her and say they will not seek the nomination. 

I think the better move is to not endorse anyone and ‘let the people decide’. Just passing the torch I think is just as easy to alienate a constituency that you need to win the election 🤷🏼‍♂️

[troph 25270]

2 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Has there been polling on Harris with white women?

White women voted for Obama in large numbers, so why would they not vote for Harris?

she has a vagina.

[hobbes2702 13520]

2 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Has there been polling on Harris with white women?

White women voted for Obama in large numbers, so why would they not vote for Harris?

The same reasons they didn’t vote for Hillary.

Harris can certainly win without them though. To me the bigger issue for her to address is the rust belt, which is why Shapiro is the obvious choice for VP.

1 minute ago, troph said:

she has a vagina.

Troph gets it. 

[DixonHur 11971]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Mostly has just felt like Doomerism at its finest 

Must be.  Not white women specific, but looks like she does well with women in general, so that should ease some minds.

[SydneyCarton 49538]

3 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

I think the better move is to not endorse anyone and ‘let the people decide’. Just passing the torch I think is just as easy to alienate a constituency that you need to win the election 🤷🏼‍♂️

Endorsing isn’t saying dont have an open convention. No matter what, he should endorse Harris. Why the fuck wouldn’t he endorse his own VP? What does that say about her and how he thinks of her? 
 

“I think the people should choose, but of course I endorse Kamala Harris. She’s tremendous, and there’s a reason I picked her to be my VP. And I think having a woman lead us through the right’s attack against women’s rights isn’t just the right thing for America, it’s the necessary thing for America.”

 

it’s not fucking hard. 

Edited July 18 by SydneyCarton

[DixonHur 11971]

Just now, hobbes2702 said:

The same reasons they didn’t vote for Hillary.

I don't believe that.  Hillary was a flawed candidate, and her gender was not the reason she lost.

She lost because people wanted someone new, and she was lugging around 20+ years of baggage.

[Dnaguy 12731]

2 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Has there been polling on Harris with white women?

White women voted for Obama in large numbers, so why would they not vote for Harris?

Because they don’t want to fuck her.

This isn’t GenZ we’re talking about

[SydneyCarton 49538]

1 minute ago, DixonHur said:

I don't believe that.  Hillary was a flawed candidate, and her gender was not the reason she lost.

She lost because people wanted someone new, and she was lugging around 20+ years of baggage.

And most of that baggage was the right hating on her because she was a woman who tried to have a prominent place in politics. They haaaaaaaated that. 

[sidis 10020]

20 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

@sidis 

You motherfukers better chill. 

You’re not going to be able to combat the kind of self loathing that can only come from growing up in Jasper and Lufkin. 

[Js1 87333]

2 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

I don't believe that.  Hillary was a flawed candidate, and her gender was not the reason she lost.

She lost because people wanted someone new, and she was lugging around 20+ years of baggage.

And she ran a bad campaign and Comey threw a huge wrench into things 

[troph 25270]

2 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Must be.  Not white women specific, but looks like she does well with women in general, so that should ease some minds.

That chart is entirely inconclusive regarding how white suburban women might have answered. Harris will win the women vote, Trump will win with men. The questions about white suburban women is a subset of that.

[DixonHur 11971]

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

And most of that baggage was the right hating on her because she was a woman who tried to have a prominent place in politics. They haaaaaaaated that. 

Maybe, but they used to make fun of her on SNL when she was the First Lady.  I think it was more time in the spotlight, and she had the last name Clinton.

1 minute ago, troph said:

That chart is entirely inconclusive regarding how white suburban women might have answered. Harris will win the women vote, Trump will win with men. The questions about white suburban women is a subset of that.

Yes, but statistically, it has to have as many, or more suburban white women to top both Biden and Warren.

[hobbes2702 13520]

5 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

I don't believe that.  Hillary was a flawed candidate, and her gender was not the reason she lost.

She lost because people wanted someone new, and she was lugging around 20+ years of baggage.

[troph 25270]

Just now, DixonHur said:

Maybe, but they used to make fun of her on SNL when she was the First Lady.  I think it was more time in the spotlight, and she had the last name Clinton.

most if not all of her 20 years of baggage was indirect criticism of her gender. she's too ambitious, she was trying to be a policy setter in HIS administration, she's not likable, her pants suits, stand by her man, she's not just a stand by her man, why didn't she leave Bill, etc. etc. etc.

[hobbes2702 13520]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

And she ran a bad campaign and Comey threw a huge wrench into things 

That’s also true. She also got fucking wrecked by white women. 

[Js1 87333]

Just now, hobbes2702 said:

That’s also true. She also got fucking wrecked by white women. 

And the coalitions have changed since 8 years ago. College educated women vote Dem, not overwhelmingly, but more than they did in 2016. Remember that Trump winning ended up flipping a lot of them to Dem

This board comprised of mostly men just go in circles about how women hate women and won’t vote for women. 

[DixonHur 11971]

Just now, troph said:

why didn't she leave Bill

I think this was a biggie.  But let's be honest, even if he could have run, Bill Clinton wouldn't have won either and, as far as I know he doesn't have a vagina.

Not many people, outside the beltway, liked Hillary. It wasn't just women.

[troph 25270]

my wife and I play tennis in a white lady tennis league in an area that qualifies as suburban. There are no men involved at all. So there is no dampener. Most of the time it's fun, but when decision-making and control is up for grabs, holy shit you have never seen more tearing down of one another than with a group of white suburban women. I stay the fuck out of it.

HRC lost from a combination of things, but suburban white women not voting enough for her was a top 3-5 reason.

Now I will also say that we have had conversations about abortion access, etc. and the conversations are short and not in depth but more conservative women than you might think are pretty pissed about Dobbs mostly for very selfish reasons - their daughters. 

So Dobbs is a game changer on this point.

Edited July 18 by troph

[Pancho 46438]

More from Deadline Whitehouse

 

Trunp campaign really, really, really wants to run against Biden. Their campaign has been strategically put together to run solely against Biden. It’s why they believe they are doing well with their targets and why the campaign really believes they are going to win in a “landslide” and this election is over. The last thing they want is a change at the top of the ticket.

There was a poll done (sorry I’m trying to remember this from listening while at the gym) about should Biden stay in a drop out and Biden’s strongest group of wanting him to stay in was Republicans lol. 

 

 

[Dbeasy 15616]

I think there is too much  “all or nothing” thinking around racism and misogyny. There are ranges and levels of both. 

Sure, there are a lot of people who simply don’t like the idea of a women or black in a position of authority, but a lot of the racism and misogyny out there is around preconceived notions about a person based upon their race or sex. If the candidate demonstrates competence, that can be overcome. It’s why Obama got to the top and why Hillary almost did. 

Harris can win by going apeshit on Trump’s flaws, misdeeds, etc while at the same time playing up her law and order side and slightly tamping down any extreme left positions. She’ll win the middle with that. 

[hobbes2702 13520]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

And the coalitions have changed since 8 years ago. College educated women vote Dem, not overwhelmingly, but more than they did in 2016. Remember that Trump winning ended up flipping a lot of them to Dem

This board comprised of mostly men just go in circles about how women hate women and won’t vote for women. 

You’re not wrong. My evidence is purely anecdotal from a life of interacting with suburban white women. They might be the worst subset of people on the planet outside of the Dutch. 

[troph 25270]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

And the coalitions have changed since 8 years ago. College educated women vote Dem, not overwhelmingly, but more than they did in 2016. Remember that Trump winning ended up flipping a lot of them to Dem

This board comprised of mostly men just go in circles about how women hate women and won’t vote for women. 

I think Dobbs changes everything on the suburban white women vote this go round for sure. So if not clear, I'm speaking historically.

[troph 25270]

1 minute ago, hobbes2702 said:

You’re not wrong. My evidence is purely anecdotal from a life of interacting with suburban white women. They might be the worst subset of people on the planet outside of the Dutch. 

Outside of really nasty people, like objectively really nasty people, I don't think you are wrong.

[mchookem 16821]

hell, i am a suburban white woman, and i hate suburban white women. 

Edited July 18 by mchookem

[DixonHur 11971]

2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I think there is too much  “all or nothing” thinking around racism and misogyny. There are ranges and levels of both. 

Sure, there are a lot of people who simply don’t like the idea of a women or black in a position of authority, but a lot of the racism and misogyny out there is around preconceived notions about a person based upon their race or sex. If the candidate demonstrates competence, that can be overcome. It’s why Obama got to the top and why Hillary almost did. 

Harris can win by going apeshit on Trump’s flaws, misdeeds, etc while at the same time playing up her law and order side and slightly tamping down any extreme left positions. She’ll win the middle with that. 

Yeah, I think the vast majority of racists and misogynists are voting Trump already.  I don't think either Harris' race or gender matter much.

Her biggest obstacle, in terms of GOP messaging, will be the fact that she was Biden's Border Czar.  But I think that's pretty easy to overcome by simply counting the number of times the GOP squashed border bills.

[Mo Horn 8945]

Claire McCaskill and Jen Psaki are on msnbc and both are saying everyone they are talking with say it's Kamala, even though nobody has said that publicly. 

[Js1 87333]

I’m not sitting here imagining all the Moms 4 Liberty suburban white women voting Dem. But there are a lot of very normal ones who will. Because of Dobbs. Because Project 2025. Etc. 

[troph 25270]

Just now, mchookem said:

he'll, i am a suburban white woman, and i hate suburban white women. 

I was posting about this topic and cringing hoping I wouldn't offend. I'm glad we are like-minded. I routinely turn down invites to all women things simply to avoid the nonsense. give me my queer people, guys or mixed company but all women, yeah I'm out.