2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Chuckie Finster 22342]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Uncommitted creeping down a bit more. Might end up 11/12%. Which is functionally not much different than any other year 

“BUT BUT BUT THE RAW VOTE TOTALS!!!” - every attention whore on twitter 

[Chuckie Finster 22342]

 

[Horn Dog 9473]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

People who are mad answer and respond to polls. Who do you think that is 

Back when I used to answer my phone I particularly in a few political polls.  I always answered the opposite of how I really felt because I did not want like minded voters to become complacent.  I figured scaring the shit out of them might get them to vote.

[tx 3 putt 75560]

 

[berlinerbaer 670]

The father of a special needs child showing up at a Nazi rally, AND bringing the kid?

That can't be real.

[BamaATL 16286]

5 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

The father of a special needs child showing up at a Nazi rally, AND bringing the kid?

That can't be real.

Don Jr travels frequently I'm told.  

[956 Worldwide 34019]

48 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Uncommitted creeping down a bit more. Might end up 11/12%. Which is functionally not much different than any other year 

The “uncommitted” camp announced to the press that they would consider 10 percent a success. Slick move, that was almost guaranteed to happen even without a campaign. 

[tx 3 putt 75560]

 

[C-Man 26755]

 

[henrygandorf 28910]

5 hours ago, Js1 said:

Either Gen Z is trolling or polling is only picking up a specific conservative group bc none of that is going to happen 

also factor in that there are more registered dems than registered gop, especially in certain areas.  so to make up for that, they oversample (or undersample) certain demographics or parties, or they inflate/deflate the numbers on each side to make it seem like they polled each side equally.  this takes a small sample size and gives it even more potential variance.  to say nothing of the trolls or people who think it's more fun to fuck with pollsters than to not fuck with pollsters, because it probably is.

maga broke the polls.  they haven't been ~reliable since 2016.

Quote

The poll, which also found that some Democrats have warmed to Trump since 2020

 

seriously, did trump's doctor write that part?

[DigglerontheHoof 20599]

If that genz poll was gauging rural Texas genzers, I'd buy it.  The rurals aren't changing.  If anything, their kids are more maga. 

[troph 24028]

The generation that 20-25% claim to be LGBTQ+ in part because it’s cool (it really is btw) hates the homos, trannies and queers, and will lead Trump to victory?

Edited February 28 by troph

[High Plains Drifter 10937]

On 2/26/2024 at 10:54 AM, Zonahorn said:

 

 

Looking forward to the middle of summer when these early polls are all MAGA has to cling to.

 

"Cancel account and stop billing my credit card," Oklahoma resident Samie Elliot wrote in a January email that landed in Hurtt's inbox. She later explained to him that neither she nor her husband, who are both retired, recalled ever signing up for recurring monthly political donations and that these charges have been occurring for at least a year getting their faces eaten.

[High Plains Drifter 10937]

On 2/26/2024 at 1:14 PM, Slacks said:

So... I always wonder, and maybe one of you can explain... How is it that any minority group is the mover of the election?

On one hand, the comment is that X minority community doesn't vote. On the other hand, that same minority community is supposed to deliver a win to the D party.

To me, it always sounds like a way to keep minorities as 'them'.

Look at the last page or two of the thread... Muslims are a threat to the Ds... And should vote D because they're going to cause Trump to win.

If Trump wins, it won't be because 100,000 Muslims in Michigan or 10,000 black people in middle Ohio didn't vote Biden. It will be because millions of the majority that actually control the vote will have spoken and chosen Trump.

Why does this charade exist and get repeated?

 

if we didn't have the electoral system, this would be spot on. But when a handful of states decide the election, and those handful of state are very closely evenly divided, this is what you get. 

 

But I agree. If a candidate loses, and the other guy gets 65% of the white vote, you can't blame the muslims or the blacks in one state. 

 

 

AND, I am concerned about this "uncommitted" thing in Michigan. I think a lot of people on this board are dismissing the very real possibility that it could be a difference maker. 

 

 

 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13318]

5 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

"Cancel account and stop billing my credit card," Oklahoma resident Samie Elliot wrote in a January email that landed in Hurtt's inbox. She later explained to him that neither she nor her husband, who are both retired, recalled ever signing up for recurring monthly political donations and that these charges have been occurring for at least a year getting their faces eaten.

"There is a 6 month processing time to accommodate these requests so the monthly charges will continue. And while normally there is a $299 cancellation fee, for today only we're running a special for the low, low price of $99 if you agree to a 9 month processing time. You're welcome."

You have to wonder how much social security money has flowed into the Trump coffers. I agree that it's the old folks' money to do as they please but I'm sure there is something else of more value they could have bought.

[Kel Varnsen 8327]

10 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Who is taking the time to click a link and fill out an internet or text poll? 

aggy

[Js1 83679]

Media: OMG UNCOMMITTED GOT 13% BIDEN IS GOING TO LOSE SO BAD IN NOVEMBER

Not media: Trump is still losing 30% of the vote in a GOP primary as a de facto incumbent, continues to bleed support in the suburbs and underperforms his primary polling every time.  *crickets*

[DigglerontheHoof 20599]

27 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

"Cancel account and stop billing my credit card," Oklahoma resident Samie Elliot wrote in a January email that landed in Hurtt's inbox. She later explained to him that neither she nor her husband, who are both retired, recalled ever signing up for recurring monthly political donations and that these charges have been occurring for at least a year getting their faces eaten.

I love that he's draining the accounts of these morons.  FAFO indeed.  

[High Plains Drifter 10937]

20 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Media: OMG UNCOMMITTED GOT 13% BIDEN IS GOING TO LOSE SO BAD IN NOVEMBER

Not media: Trump is still losing 30% of the vote in a GOP primary as a de facto incumbent, continues to bleed support in the suburbs and underperforms his primary polling every time.  *crickets*

 

Uh, I just a heard story on NPR this morning about how doTaRD is underperforming in the primaries, including Michigan, vs Haley. 

 

[Js1 83679]

Just now, High Plains Drifter said:

 

Uh, I just a heard story on NPR this morning about how doTaRD is underperforming in the primaries, including Michigan, vs Haley. 

 

it would be nice if the more MSM actually covers this.  CNN, MSNBC, the Big 3, NYT.  Even if Cohn/Silver would acknowledge it, but they probably won't, because it doesn't conform to their polling data. 

He's not just underperforming his polling by 10-15%, he is bleeding support in the suburbs and college towns to Haley.  They're either going to vote Biden or just sit out. 

[South Austin 51681]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

it would be nice if the more MSM actually covers this.  CNN, MSNBC, the Big 3, NYT. 

I used to watch Joe Scarborough a lot, and would be surprised if he's not pouncing on Trump any chance he gets.  Then again, few people are awake when his show is on.

[DigglerontheHoof 20599]

9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

it would be nice if the more MSM actually covers this.  CNN, MSNBC, the Big 3, NYT.  Even if Cohn/Silver would acknowledge it, but they probably won't, because it doesn't conform to their polling data. 

He's not just underperforming his polling by 10-15%, he is bleeding support in the suburbs and college towns to Haley.  They're either going to vote Biden or just sit out. 

I think what they are attempting to do is keep a fire under Biden supporters/Trump haters.  It seems they believe if they paint a dire picture of the election outcome, the opposition won't get complacent.  Of course, they could just be idiots. 

[Chuckie Finster 22342]

50 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

AND, I am concerned about this "uncommitted" thing in Michigan. I think a lot of people on this board are dismissing the very real possibility that it could be a difference maker. 

I guess I just don't see the logic here.

• Biden won Michigan in 2020 by 150k votes.  Uncommitted will likely end up between 100-110k.
• The people who care enough about Gaza to make it a political red-line likely made their voices heard last night.  I don't think there is much untapped growth potential in the "uncommitted" number.  
• There is some percentage (I would argue fairly large) of voters who absolutely will still vote Biden, but viewed last night as a consequence free way to let him know they aren't pleased 
• The vast majority of people who do care deeply enough to not vote for Biden will just stay home.  Biden won Wayne County (Dearborn) with 68% of the vote.  These "Trump is winning Dearborn!" takes are not based in reality, as he won't be getting these people's votes.  (And if they do vote for Trump because of Gaza, then they are too stupid to even consider pandering to)
• Any action dramatic enough to genuinely shift the opinion of the Gaza hardliners would likely have negative repercussions in other, much larger political groups

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11569]

I do think it is a consequence free way of making a political statement by and large.  There are going to be some votes shaved off this November because of it, but my guess is that is on the order of 1-in-10 of those that voted this way in the primary.  It’s MI so every vote counts but hopefully not down to that level. 

[Js1 83679]

I saw one of the state Senators who led the charge to vote uncommitted mention after the polls closed yesterday that the goal is to elect Biden in November and use yesterday to voice displeasure at the Israel/Hamas situation  and ultimately change policy with their vote. But that doesn’t mean elect Trump. Not even close 

[South Austin 51681]

33 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I saw one of the state Senators who led the charge to vote uncommitted mention after the polls closed yesterday that the goal is to elect Biden in November and use yesterday to voice displeasure at the Israel/Hamas situation  and ultimately change policy with their vote. But that doesn’t mean elect Trump. Not even close 

I bet that's right, and if the "Uncommitted" movement leaders say something along the lines of, "Well, yeah, we still won't vote for Trump in November," then what bit of leverage do that have in their primary "message"?

[Zonahorn 7972]

 

Quite literally the only thing suggesting Trump and MAGA will win the election is polling. Stupid ass media and their engagement numbers

[Zonahorn 7972]

3 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

If that genz poll was gauging rural Texas genzers, I'd buy it.  The rurals aren't changing.  If anything, their kids are more maga. 

I've had this thought, even when Trump is gone Republican politics will be poisoned for multiple generations by all this. MAGA will continue to be the dominant force in the Republican Party

[WBT 20280]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Media: OMG UNCOMMITTED GOT 13% BIDEN IS GOING TO LOSE SO BAD IN NOVEMBER

Not media: Trump is still losing 30% of the vote in a GOP primary as a de facto incumbent, continues to bleed support in the suburbs and underperforms his primary polling every time.  *crickets*

Outside of a brief window post midterm, pre Ronnie shitting the bed, the rematch has been inevitable since the Rs bitched out on convictng for imprachment.  I don't see the point of trying to tease meaning out of the primaries on either side.  Why would voters take them seriously?

Edited February 28 by WBT

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11569]

we're all educated.  educated people love data.  it stinks that we are going to have to just repeat "who even answers the phone these days?" and our other half dozen memorized excuses in order to ignore the data for the foreseeable future.  hopefully the polls will switch soon so we can go back to looking at them.

 

if biden can repeat the map of 2020, but lose AZ, NV, and MI, he still gets over 269 EVs which made me feel better.

[tx 3 putt 75560]

2 hours ago, troph said:

The generation that 20-25% claim to be LGBTQ+ in part because it’s cool (it really is btw) hates the homos, trannies and queers, and will lead Trump to victory?

‘Homos’ always cracks me up 😂😂😂

[WBT 20280]

4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

 

if biden can repeat the map of 2020, but lose AZ, NV, and MI, he still gets over 269 EVs which made me feel better.

Or AZ and GA.  The states Trump FAFO with post election were never even enough to change the outcome.  Only the best people...

[aggie08 20487]

6 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

if biden can repeat the map of 2020, but lose AZ, NV, and MI, he still gets over 269 EVs which made me feel better.

Arizona is staying blue. Which is sure to piss off your typical lifelong Arizonan. Which makes me smile.

[shakahorn 1608]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Media: OMG UNCOMMITTED GOT 13% BIDEN IS GOING TO LOSE SO BAD IN NOVEMBER

Not media: Trump is still losing 30% of the vote in a GOP primary as a de facto incumbent, continues to bleed support in the suburbs and underperforms his primary polling every time.  *crickets*

They have to do this to keep folks watching.  Kinda like in last night's basketball game, the announcers kept saying "it's not over, stranger things have happened" when we were up by 29.

[Js1 83679]

17 minutes ago, WBT said:

Outside of a brief window post midterm, pre Ronnie shitting the bed, the rematch has been inevitable since the Rs bitched out on convictng for imprachment.  I don't see the point of trying to tease meaning out of the primaries on either side.  Why would voters take them seriously?

It's incredibly frustrating.  All the media typically covers is "Biden old" or "Dems hate Biden."  They're so afraid (or unwilling?) to cover Trump's cognitive decline.  Or, if the GOP was a Middle East terrorist group, they'd never stop covering their rallies and actions/plans - rounding up immigrants, deporting Muslims, going after IVF, national abortion bans, etc. But because it's Trump/the GOP, they just don't talk about it at all. 

Project '25 should be in the news every fucking day.  And the media should be the ones screaming about it, because they're in just as much as danger as the Muslims, Mexicans and LGBT folks. 

[Zonahorn 7972]

11 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Arizona is staying blue. Which is sure to piss off your typical lifelong Arizonan. Which makes me smile.

I am ecstatic that my home state has turned blue, I never thought I would see the day.

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It's incredibly frustrating.  All the media typically covers is "Biden old" or "Dems hate Biden."  They're so afraid (or unwilling?) to cover Trump's cognitive decline.  Or, if the GOP was a Middle East terrorist group, they'd never stop covering their rallies and actions/plans - rounding up immigrants, deporting Muslims, going after IVF, national abortion bans, etc. But because it's Trump/the GOP, they just don't talk about it at all. 

Project '25 should be in the news every fucking day.  And the media should be the ones screaming about it, because they're in just as much as danger as the Muslims, Mexicans and LGBT folks. 

 

[babysdaddy 2708]

48 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

I've had this thought, even when Trump is gone Republican politics will be poisoned for multiple generations by all this. MAGA will continue to be the dominant force in the Republican Party

Because of these rural cunts the Pubs are going to end up with Matt Gaetz or MTG or the hand job specialist running for president in 2028

[TheStoicPaisano 9848]

dat pivot doe

 

 

and guess who's back? Deano loses to Goop Girl.

 

Edited February 28 by TheStoicPaisano

[Neonmoon 38126]

https://www.threads.net/@keithedwards/post/C35fc8uJUaL

But but but I won. 

Sorry we got sued and lost a lot of money. 

[Zonahorn 7972]

 

Reality starting to crack through the media bubble

[softlynow 1620]

4 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

 

Reality starting to crack through the media bubble

Boring. Doesn't drive clicks. I'm sure a new bad-for-Biden narrative about something that registers no more than a blip in the numbers will take hold soon.

[Chuckie Finster 22342]

33 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It's incredibly frustrating.  All the media typically covers is "Biden old" or "Dems hate Biden."  They're so afraid (or unwilling?) to cover Trump's cognitive decline.  Or, if the GOP was a Middle East terrorist group, they'd never stop covering their rallies and actions/plans - rounding up immigrants, deporting Muslims, going after IVF, national abortion bans, etc. But because it's Trump/the GOP, they just don't talk about it at all. 

Project '25 should be in the news every fucking day.  And the media should be the ones screaming about it, because they're in just as much as danger as the Muslims, Mexicans and LGBT folks. 

Team Biden on it.

 

 

[The Dog 43490]

THE POLLS ARE STILL RIGHT EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE WRONG:

My takeaway (after reading the article so you don't have to): Democrats need high suburban college educated crackers (especially women) to turn out bigly. If they do they win in November (and Biden as a result).

These are the people driving Haley's numbers as much as anti-MAGA Republicans. 

[Zonahorn 7972]

 

HOLY FUCKING SHIT

[Js1 83679]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

My takeaway (after reading the article so you don't have to): Democrats need high suburban college educated crackers (especially women) to turn out bigly. If they do they win in November (and Biden as a result).

 

So the group most likely to show up in every election? 

[SydneyCarton 47486]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

So the group most likely to show up in every election? 

You think that group is more likely to show up than the general *waves hands* Olds?

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11569]

4 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

 

HOLY FUCKING SHIT

wow.

[Js1 83679]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

You think that group is more likely to show up than the general *waves hands* Olds?

Yes...

College educated suburban voters are a highly reliable demographic in terms of turnout.  A big reason why the GOP dominated midterms and specials for so long until they realigned into Dem-leaning voters.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11569]

cornyn going to be #1 now?

[tokamak 6324]

I'm a page behind but Haley primary voters will come home to Trump in November. They hate Democrats much more than they dislike Trump.