2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Surly Bevo 24608]

19 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

That's more like it

They just have to show up

[Pato del Muerto 52117]

3 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

They just have to show up

In the right states 

[Neonmoon 38126]

24 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

That's more like it

NYT: Biden is losing steam with voters over 30 

[atomheartbevo 89055]

1 hour ago, Zonahorn said:

That's more like it

Again, purely anecdotal, but I look at the Trump fans in my life (relatives, friends, former co-workers, etc.) , and their enthusiasm for him is a fraction of what it was in 2016/2020.  If they are buying MAGA gear, they don’t seem to be showing it off on social media, I don’t see the flags and bumper stickers like before.  It’s noticeable to the extent that seeing Trump 2024 stuff catches my immediate attention.

Of course the Dems have to still turn out.

[gmr548 16316]

On 3/2/2024 at 12:07 PM, Zonahorn said:

An actually good poll, holy shit.

I haven't looked into the methodology or crosstabs on this at all but Michigan is not going to be 3-4 points to the left of PA. Those two states will be within a percentage point of one another. Wisconsin I can see drifting right. It is notably whiter, less educated, and more religious than the other two (and MI slightly more so than PA). But it isn't going to be PA and WI flipping by several points and Michigan holding. If PA goes, MI goes.

 

On 3/2/2024 at 12:14 PM, Zonahorn said:

And lastly;

 

Keeping the "somewhat disapproves" in the fold has been key to the run of Democratic election wins from 2022-present and is probably one of the most solid, tested data points you can point to in support of Biden's chances. I'd rather not be in the position to have to count on that but it's clearly proven to be real.

On 3/2/2024 at 12:30 PM, Ghost of LL said:

Oh, and ok NYT—tell me more about how women have shifted 11 points to the right post-Dobbs.

Yeah it was hard for me to take the NYT poll seriously when I saw the numbers with women. Okay sure. I think the total dismissal of the polls is wishful thinking - there's a real malaise that is being captured there; Biden isn't doing anything about it and is running out of time to do so - but shit like that is impossible to take seriously. Adjust the result among women to something more likely to happen and all of a sudden you're well into statistical tie territory and watching turnout, which I think is ultimately where we'll end up.

[gmr548 16316]

10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Again, purely anecdotal, but I look at the Trump fans in my life (relatives, friends, former co-workers, etc.) , and their enthusiasm for him is a fraction of what it was in 2016/2020.  If they are buying MAGA gear, they don’t seem to be showing it off on social media, I don’t see the flags and bumper stickers like before.  It’s noticeable to the extent that seeing Trump 2024 stuff catches my immediate attention.

Of course the Dems have to still turn out.

A fraction of infinity is still infinity.

[Zonahorn 7972]

 

OF COURSE

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11571]

Silver is a troll now, which is weird.

[Brandywine 1295]

23 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Immunity or not what Trump did had nothing to do with his duties as President. 

[Js1 83685]

18 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Silver is a troll now, which is weird.

Silver is not a troll, he's fucking broken because polling is broken and he's a shit ass pundit. 

The pollsters are mad the election results don't match their polls, so they have to resort to really bad punditry to try to justify why they are employed.

[tx 3 putt 75570]

[C-Man 26757]

https://x.com/BidenHQ/status/1764824422056083462?s=20



 

Edited March 5 by C-Man

[C-Man 26757]

[WBT 20280]

14 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

seems legit

[Biff Tannen 45228]

38 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

24 minutes ago, WBT said:

seems legit

Well I saw it on the internet, so it must be true. 
Seriously 3putt, link your shit. 

[Mdhorn 5838]

9 hours ago, Js1 said:

Silver is not a troll, he's fucking broken because polling is broken and he's a shit ass pundit. 

The pollsters are mad the election results don't match their polls, so they have to resort to really bad punditry to try to justify why they are employed.

But when his platform supports trolls trolling, he's a troll by association.  His platform has become just another rw stooge bot echo chamber.  And he's not apologizing for his shitty research after common sense was posted to his attention.  

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11571]

NYT on the faded memories of the voters.

 

Not all that long ago, many Americans committed hours a day to tracking then-President Donald J. Trump’s every move. And then, sometime after the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and before his first indictment, they largely stopped.

They are having trouble remembering it all again.

More than three years of distance from the daily onslaught has faded, changed — and in some cases, warped — Americans’ memories of events that at the time felt searing. Polling suggests voters’ views on Mr. Trump’s policies and his presidency have improved in the rearview mirror. In interviews, voters often have a hazy recall of one of the most tumultuous periods in modern politics. Social scientists say that’s unsurprising. In an era of hyper-partisanship, there’s little agreed-upon collective memory, even about events that played out in public.

But as Mr. Trump pursues a return to power, the question of what exactly voters remember has rarely been more important. While Mr. Trump is staking his campaign on a nostalgia for a time not so long ago, Mr. Biden’s campaign is counting on voters to refocus on Mr. Trump, hoping they will recall why they denied him a second term.

“Remember how you felt the day after Donald Trump was elected president in 2016,” the Biden campaign wrote in a fund-raising appeal last month. “Remember walking around in disbelief and fear of what was to come.”

 

 

For now, the erosion of time appears to be working in Mr. Trump’s favor, as swing voters base their support on their feelings about the present, not the past. A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted late last month found 10 percent of Mr. Biden’s 2020 voters now say they support Mr. Trump, while virtually none of Mr. Trump’s voters had flipped to Mr. Biden. The poll found Mr. Trump’s policies were viewed far more favorably than Mr. Biden’s.

 

Image

Mr. Trump addressing supporters at a rally the day before the election in 2016.Credit...Stephen Crowley/The New York Times

Image

 

A local newspaper at a diner in Erie, Pa., days after the 2016 election.Credit...Hilary Swift for The New York Times

“What’s been clear for a while, especially among swing voters, is that Biden is just more front and center,” said Sarah Longwell, a Republican consultant who opposes Mr. Trump and has conducted dozens of focus groups with conservative and swing voters in recent months. “They know about what they don’t like about Biden, and they have forgotten what they don’t like about Trump.”

Polls suggest that Mr. Trump has also made inroads with voters who may have been too young to remember his first term in detail. The nearly 4.2 million 18-year-olds who are newly eligible to vote this year were in middle school when Mr. Trump was first elected. Polls show they have soured on Mr. Biden in part because of his support for Israel in the war in Gaza, saying they favor Mr. Trump on the issue, even though Mr. Trump was also a staunch ally to Israel while in office.

 

 

Ian Barrs, who works at a funeral home in Atlantic, Iowa, said there were other parts of Mr. Trump’s record that have seemed to fade. He often marvels how his Trump-supporting friends recall the years 2017 through 2019 as halcyon days. They all had forgotten 2020 and the year of Covid, he said.

“Now I don’t blame Trump for Covid,” Mr. Barrs said. “But all those things, the lockdowns, those happened under Trump.”

It’s common for Americans to look back fondly on ex-presidents. A Gallup analysis in June found 46 percent of adults approved of Mr. Trump’s handling of his presidency, based on what they “heard or remembered.” Mr. Trump’s approval rating when he left office was 34 percent.

Asked what events he remembered about the Trump administration, Roger Laney, a 55-year-old independent, undecided voter in South Carolina, described a general sense of “chaos.”

 

“He made great media,” Mr. Laney said, recalling how he would listen to public radio on the way home from work and think, “OK, what has Trump done this time?”

The frenetic pace of the Trump years meant many Americans made Trump news an obsessive habit — or tuned out completely. The rat-a-tat volume coincided with the continued rise of siloed, algorithm-driven social media and shrinking attention spans.

That environment created a kind of numbness that not even 91 felony counts or enormous civil penalties for defamation and fraud can break through, said Andrew Franks, a professor of political psychology at the University of Washington.

“Negative information about Trump is no longer distinctive, it is just the air that we breathe,” Dr. Franks said. “It’s the water that we are swimming in. It just becomes a conditioned emotional response, where you either feel joy and admiration or disgust and anger at the sight of his face — but each individual act is just a drop in the ocean.”

Ross Kuehne, an independent from Candia, N.H., who supported Nikki Haley, Mr. Trump’s rival for Republican nomination, said he remembered being overwhelmed during Mr. Trump’s term.

 

 

“It was coming too fast to process,” he said. “That was kind of the genius of it — is there was too much to keep track. It was like buses. Why get outraged about one thing when there’s going to be a new thing along in 15 minutes?”

 

Image

 

Signs in East Palestine, Ohio, the morning after the election in 2016.Credit...Hilary Swift for The New York Times

Image

 

A child who was detained by Border Patrol waved to protesters who gathered outside the Ursula Street Border Patrol Station in McAllen, Texas, to voice their opposition to the separation of children from their parents in 2018.Credit...Todd Heisler/The New York Times

Asked what he remembers now, Mr. Kuehne, who plans to vote for Mr. Biden, rattled off a greatest hits of what he considered low points: Mr. Trump noting he had “great friendship” with the North Korean dictator. A government shutdown. Mexico not paying for the border wall. Mr. Trump describing “very fine people on both sides” at a white supremacist rally in Charlottesville, Va. His supporters storming the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

That left out a whole host of major and minor dramas.

The recording of Mr. Trump saying he could grab women by the genitals. Praising Russian intelligence. Crudely disparaging African countries. Separating children from their parents at the Mexican border. Telling children Santa Claus isn’t real. Considering buying Greenland. Suggesting using nuclear weapons to stop a hurricane. Threatening to withhold aid from Ukraine if its president wouldn’t investigate the Biden family. Suggesting Covid patients inject bleach.

And then there were things Republicans remember. The climbing stock market. Tax cuts. Deregulation. Pulling out of the Paris climate accord. Abandoning the nuclear deal with Iran. The Abraham Accords codifying peace between Israel and several Arab countries. Fewer illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border.

 

 

“America was stronger and tougher and richer and safer and more confident,” Mr. Trump said at a recent rally in Rock Hill, S.C. “Think of it.”

Paul Schibbelhute, retired engineer from Nashua, N.H., who voted for Mr. Trump twice, doesn’t dispute part of the argument.

“My 401(k) went through the roof, I made a ton of money, life was good. There was no inflation. There were good times,” he said. But Mr. Schibbelhute broke from Mr. Trump after he refused to concede his defeat in 2020 and voted for Ms. Haley in his state’s primary.

But Ms. Haley has failed to dislodge this version of Trump’s presidency from enough Republicans’ minds.

“Everybody talks about the economy they had under Donald Trump,” Ms. Haley said during a campaign event in New Hampshire in January. “It was good right? But at what cost? He put us $8 trillion in debt in four years. Our kids will never forgive us for this.”

 

 

For any event to remembered, political psychologists say, it has to have mattered to you in the first place. James W. Pennebaker, a professor emeritus who researches collective memory at the University of Texas at Austin, said people were more likely to remember events that affect their lives, while events that are embarrassing or reflect negatively on people are more likely to be forgotten, he said.

 

Image

 

After white supremacists led a torch march through the grounds of the University of Virginia in 2017, Mr. Trump said there were “very fine people on both sides.”Credit...Edu Bayer for The New York Times

Image

 

Rioters outside the Senate chamber of the Capitol building on Jan. 6, 2021.Credit...Erin Schaff/The New York Times

Mr. Pennebaker noted that polarization and a fractured media environment meant that Americans were less likely to agree on set facts, preventing the country from creating a collective, shared memory.

“It is almost breathtaking to me,” he said. “We are living in a fascinating time when we see the other side threatening our existence, so we build up how great we are and denigrate how bad the other side is. And it entirely shapes not just the present but the past too.”

 

 

That pattern is particularly clear on how people remember Jan. 6. In the three years since the attack played out on television, Republicans have become less likely to describe the rioters as violent and more likely to absolve Mr. Trump of responsibility, according to a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll.

Professional Democrats, who have watched Mr. Trump eclipse Mr. Biden in public and private polling, continue to believe the former president isn’t as strong as the surveys indicate. They argue that if they inform enough people about Mr. Trump’s record in office that voters skeptical about Mr. Biden will vote for him anyway.

“You can look back and have that sort of collective amnesia of just how bad the policies were and just how harmful they were,” said Lori Lodes, the executive director of Climate Power, a liberal advocacy group whose polling found 52 percent of likely voters now approve of Mr. Trump’s time in office.

The majority support for Mr. Trump that shows up in polling, Ms. Lodes said, is “not there now. It is based on this false illusion of looking back.”

[Js1 83685]

I can’t imagine why voters forget how bad Trump is. It’s like the msm decided not to cover his insanity or cognitive decline bc Biden said the wrong name or republicans are flooding the media with Hunter Biden bullshit 

[Red Five 40455]

The dems can put together what should be some devastating ads, hilariously easily. "Remember four years ago? Remember what it was like when Trump left office? Unwillingly left, by the way. He was being impeached.... again. The Capitol was under attack. The economy was wrecked." etc etc etc.

[YGIFS 19445]

Is there some high school or college campus club where you get mad pussy or dick by decrying Biden’s position in the Gaza Strip and proudly vote for Trump instead, that I’m just too old and lame to know about?  
 

when you vote for that fuckstick and he puts you and your family on a Muslim registry.  Remember my words “I warned you.  And I no longer care.  I’m a partially Jewish Mexican.  But I can easily re-assimilate back into white nationalist Christian Republican America.  When the bullets hit your parent’s skulls, what difference will it make the reason why?”   You fucking pedantic children and your obsession with being performatively bold.  

[Doc Sam Beckett 5727]

20 hours ago, Brandywine said:

Immunity or not what Trump did had nothing to do with his duties as President. 

 

Everyone knows that. What this Supreme Court presupposes is, maybe it did? 

[tx 3 putt 75570]

[Fudge Nuggets 19001]

On 3/4/2024 at 8:55 AM, gmr548 said:

Adjust the result among women to something more likely to happen and all of a sudden you're well into statistical tie territory and watching turnout, which I think is ultimately where we'll end up.

Biden not leading by 60+ points is an indictment on the stupidity of the electorate.

[BamaATL 16289]

North Dakota Republican Caucus Results

Dotard - 1632

Haley - 273

Other receiving votes: Stuckenberg, Blinkey

 

Democratic Caucus not until March 30th.  In 2016 the Republican Party did not have a Caucus prior to the election, just sent unpledged delegates.  Due to this, hard to tell if meek turnout means anything at all; in 2016 217k voters went with Dotard.  Zero question the state will be Republican, still somewhat maddening they get two Senators.  

[tx 3 putt 75570]

 

[Zonahorn 7972]

 

exits, but that seems like a big deal 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33723]

10 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

 

exits, but that seems like a big deal 

no polls are a big deal right now. please try to learn from 2016... and 2018.... and 2020.... also 2022....

[StassneyHorn 6446]

I believe those are exit polls

[Zonahorn 7972]

4 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

no polls are a big deal right now. please try to learn from 2016... and 2018.... and 2020.... also 2022....

Just mentioned it because most national polls have Biden's approval in the 30s. So him being -4 with Haley voters is interesting 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33723]

3 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

I believe those are exit polls

i see that now, thank you for the correction

[BamaATL 16289]

First polls close in 5 minutes, they include Alabama, Virginia, and Vermont

Alabama turnout 2016 - R 861k

Alabama turnout 2020 - D 453k

Virginia turnout 2016 - R 1.026 m

Virginia turnout 2020- D 1.326 m

Vermont 2016 R - 62k

Vermont 2020 D - 158k

 

[Pancho 43020]

You’ve got to think Robinson being the R nominee for Governor of Nawf Carolina hurts trump more than it helps. I don’t think the trump team wanted that to happen but I sure as fuck did.

[Stilicho 1394]

8 minutes ago, Pancho said:

You’ve got to think Robinson being the R nominee for Governor of Nawf Carolina hurts trump more than it helps. I don’t think the trump team wanted that to happen but I sure as fuck did.

Read up a bit about Robinson today. Total fucking nutcase.

[Js1 83685]

Fatscist Orange Fuck is sucking wind in the burbs of NC and VA

[BamaATL 16289]

If the math is correct, in Virginia, it looks like Republicans will under perform in Virginia compared to 2016 by 50k to 100k.  

[Dnaguy 11599]

On 3/3/2024 at 4:09 PM, mchookem said:

he's not confused, he's a liar.

 

Trump doesn’t know what the fuck he did as President. 
 

Someone wrote it down for his speech and now he believes he did this.

I’m pretty sure he believes he beat Obama in 2016 right now. His decline is real and precipitous 

[David Dennison 17804]

Someone should ask him to name his Senators and Representative.

[Satchel 6903]

1 hour ago, Stilicho said:

Read up a bit about Robinson today. Total fucking nutcase.

There was the time he called school shooting survivors “media prosti-tots” for advocating for gun-control policies. The meme mocking a Harvey Weinstein accuser, and the other meme mocking actresses for wearing “whore dresses to protest sexual harassment.” The prediction that rising acceptance of homosexuality would lead to pedophilia and “the END of civilization as we know it”; the talk of arresting transgender people for their bathroom choice; the use of antisemitic tropes; the Facebook posts calling Hillary Clinton a “heifer” and Michelle Obama a man.

[BamaATL 16289]

Van Jones is the only person worth a shit at CNN.  

[gmr548 16316]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

If the math is correct, in Virginia, it looks like Republicans will under perform in Virginia compared to 2016 by 50k to 100k.  

Comparing turnout to past primaries is just spinning your wheels. They are noncompetitive rubber stamping of incumbents on both sides. Turnout is always low in those. I really wouldn't make anything of it.

[TexArcher 37104]

Jason Palmer upsets Joe Biden in American Samoa.  

Also, if Vermont does go to Haley, I fully expect Trump to try to sell Vermont to Canada when he's president again next year.

[Js1 83685]

1 minute ago, TexArcher said:

Jason Palmer upsets Joe Biden in American Samoa.  

Also, if Vermont does go to Haley, I fully expect Trump to try to sell Vermont to Canada when he's president again next year.

Just like Bloomberg spending $1m in AS last time, Palmer actually showed up. Nice vacation he took

[StassneyHorn 6446]

My prediction is right and I’ll hold the parade later. First sizable elections for Trump on the ballot after Jan 6th and it’s a disaster.

[AustinHorn 57]

Have there been any white flags waving in the Haley camp yet? 

[TexArcher 37104]

Donald Trump just said that the only thing going right in the economy is the stock market, and it's only up because his poll numbers are so much better than Biden's.

 

[tx 3 putt 75570]

Just now, TexArcher said:

Donald Trump just said that the only thing going right in the economy is the stock market, and it's only up because his poll numbers are so much better than Biden's.

 

He also shit his pants on stage …..

 

[BamaATL 16289]

2 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

My prediction is right and I’ll hold the parade later. First sizable elections for Trump on the ballot after Jan 6th and it’s a disaster.

He won by about the same margins in rural areas, but the suburbs are where they Haley voters showed up, and that's not great news for him.  If we can just get 10% of the Haley voters to either no show or vote Biden, quite frankly either combination, things look good for us.   Nationally that sort of number would tally somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.5 million to 2 million votes.  Even if you evenly distributed that across all 50 states (it's more concentrated in swing areas), that 50kish per state has pretty big implications.  

Obviously we need to turn out, but there is plenty of soft underbelly here.  

[TheStoicPaisano 9849]

ou sux

Edited March 6 by TheStoicPaisano

[troph 24028]

11 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

He also shit his pants on stage …..

 

“This is a whole other level of fucked up” - michel Cohen.

[gmr548 16316]

10 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

He won by about the same margins in rural areas, but the suburbs are where they Haley voters showed up, and that's not great news for him.  If we can just get 10% of the Haley voters to either no show or vote Biden, quite frankly either combination, things look good for us.   Nationally that sort of number would tally somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.5 million to 2 million votes.  Even if you evenly distributed that across all 50 states (it's more concentrated in swing areas), that 50kish per state has pretty big implications.  

Obviously we need to turn out, but there is plenty of soft underbelly here.  

I don't think it's this simple. A large number of those Haley voters likely voted for Biden in 2020.