2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Hookah Horns 3089]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

I just had a long conversation with my sister, whose high intelligence is restricted to healthcare-related matters. We were discussing inheritance and taxes for my now-deceased mother, along with the timing for selling our parents' house out in the oil patch. She wants to wait to put it on the market until after November, when we'll have a more oil-friendly president because, of course, prices will rise and housing demand will increase in the Permian Basin if Trump is elected.

I'd have strangled her if we weren't talking over the phone.

Sorry for your loss and your sister. 

[cactusflinthead 27628]

Y'all think Joe is going to take Michigan for granted and not campaign there? Or where else did she not go visit?

What about the specials since 22?

How about 22? The Red Wave that wasn't.

The news has to sell ad space. They want a race.

 

[tx 3 putt 78739]

The ads write themselves …

 

[tx 3 putt 78739]

More dem ads ….

 

[tx 3 putt 78739]

 

[Bullneck 19562]

[Rimbo 27088]

3 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

Same here. I think the people doing victory laps already are fucking insane. As if anyone thought Trump could win in 2016.

I knew it the minute Hillary clinched the Democrat nomination. Knew she'd lose the Rust Belt right then and there, and that the Democrats had just handed Trump victory on a silver platter.

There's always room for reasonable doubt between now and November, but this is just argumentum ad ignorantiam. The evidence for why Trump was likely to win was there at this point in 2016, and ultimately proved to be correct. The evidence for why Biden will win in 2024 is here now, as well, and there if you want to bother looking at it.

[atomheartbevo 90670]

3 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Is it possible they realized that being so loud about it actually hurt them?  I fully expect them all to vote for him and then say they voted for Gary Johnson again. 

Many maybe ashamed of it enough to not want people to know they like Trump, and I’m sure many of those will vote for him anyways.  With that said, I also think plenty were not full-on MAGA and don’t want to be associated with him if they think he will lose again.  It’s one thing to have the flags and stickers and signs if your guy wins,  but when he goes down in flames again, do you want to be associated with that?  Do you want to be reminded of it?

Like I said, these people were like Crossfitters - they want to convince you that they know what’s best.

 So many being silent now is not a good sign for him.  Shit, why aren’t they at least going to his rallies in larger numbers where they are around the other cult members?

 

[atomheartbevo 90670]

I did have an older MAGA relative try to tell me this weekend that he feels like something happened with the voting in 2020 and it may happen again. Basically Biden rigged the vote, but he wouldn’t say it because he knew I’d ask for the proof (we’ve had this discussion before).

My response was “if you truly feel like it’s rigged, why are you bothering to vote? Why waste your time?  Or is it that you know he will lose and you’re trying to find excuses?”

[Jhawkmvp 1514]

3 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

The ads write themselves …

 

It is telling that once Jared got that Saudi money she has kept away from him mostly. She had to put up with his gross shit for years to inherit. Now that she and her husband are probably wealthier than her father, she keeps him at a distance. Same with Tiffany after she married that billionaire's son though she was always on the periphery. Now Eric and Coke Jr. ... those guys are sweating bullets at all these judgements and worrying how much will be left for them when the Cheeto kicks the bucket. That is why they will always defend daddy.

[Pato del Muerto 53581]

1 hour ago, Bullneck said:

Make the Academy Great Again! 
 

because MAMPASGA doesn’t fit on the hats, and sounds like a psoriasis  cream. 

Edited March 11 by Pato del Muerto

[cactusflinthead 27628]

We're not discussing the state of the GOP in the states that are the ones to worry about. 

Take a quick look at Michigan. Has she surrendered the office as leader of the party in the state? 

---

“Based upon its initial review, it appears to the Counsel’s office that Ms. Karamo was properly removed in accordance with the MI GOP bylaws,” read the letter, which was obtained by The Associated Press.

While RNC members are expected to meet following a Jan. 30 winter meeting to make further recommendations, the dispute over the Michigan GOP chair position will likely play out in court in the months to come.

 

--

Karamo, an election conspiracist who refused to accept the results of her 14 percentage point loss in the 2022 secretary of state race, has claimed the Jan. 6 vote to remove her as chair was “illegitimate” and “illegal.” She sent cease and desist letters last week to Hoekstra and other opponents alleging defamation of character and trademark infringement.

https://apnews.com/article/kristina-karamo-michigan-republican-trump-88f8c427f97a39e71265bb70b883e2c1

so... definitely maybe. Meanwhile there is not a lotta money in the cash on hand.

 

let's go see how it's going in Arizona

 

 

“The release of our conversation by Lake confirms a disturbing tendency to exploit private interactions for personal gain and increases concerns about her habit of secretly recording personal and private conversations. This is obviously a concern given how much interaction she has with high profile people including President Trump,” DeWit said. “I question how effective a United States Senator can be when they cannot be trusted to engage in private and confidential conversations.”

Arizona is poised to play a pivotal role in 2024 as one of the nation’s most competitive presidential battlegrounds, and with a key Senate race on the ballot, as well.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/24/politics/arizona-republican-chairman-resigns-kari-lake/index.html

Uhhh. That's great. Just great. I mean really it is if you want Joe and Ruben to win there.

I saw two signs between Denton and Comanche about Trump. One was a gate that always has something political and the other is a cheesy billboard in Willow Park. "Born in New York but with Texas values" or equivalent bullshit.

I did see a rando pickup with a rather faded shoe polish message of 'Joe Biden is ruining America' Not really catchy, but it's the sentiment that counts.

This isn't 2016. 

[Satchel 6983]

I remain convinced Hillary would have confirmed the majority of polls and won in 2016 had it not been for the last minute sabotage of James Comey. The country has changed a lot since 2016, but it’s hard to imagine that so many rejected Hillary over a last minute 30 minute investigation into emails, while an even larger number seem unconcerned about Trump 91 criminal charges. I don’t understand it.

[BamaATL 16593]

18 minutes ago, Satchel said:

I remain convinced Hillary would have confirmed the majority of polls and won in 2016 had it not been for the last minute sabotage of James Comey. The country has changed a lot since 2016, but it’s hard to imagine that so many rejected Hillary over a last minute 30 minute investigation into emails, while an even larger number seem unconcerned about Trump 91 criminal charges. I don’t understand it.

I at least think I understand it.  It was never about emails or his criminal charges, or anything of the like.  For the MAGA nuts, it's always been about being cruel, racist, extraordinarily selfish people.  They comprise about 60% of the current Republican Party, this is always who these people have been, they just never had a vocal champion to get behind; once they did, it allowed the to come to full froth in the public eye.  The other 40% of the Republican Party is comprised of people that were always willing to turn a blind eye to the others because the genuinely believe that Republican policies work in their favor (the vast majority of these folks are wrong, because while they believe they are wealthy, they really aren't).  So to me, the sad truth is that there are about 40 million voting Americans beyond saving or redemption of any sort, and there are about 30 million voting Americans who don't mind courting the folks beyond redemption because they believe it suits them.  

We aren't going to peel away pretty much anyone from the MAGA portion of this; as I said they are beyond redemption, with rare exception.  The target group is the 30 million of them that just court those idiots.  With those folks, we might have a chance of convincing them to either not vote or in rare exception get them to vote Biden.  10% makes this a blowout, 5% makes gives us a fairly comfortable path.  I wish I could tell you we could convince a larger number of people, but I don't really think that's realistic.  

[Rimbo 27088]

48 minutes ago, Satchel said:

I remain convinced Hillary would have confirmed the majority of polls and won in 2016 had it not been for the last minute sabotage of James Comey. The country has changed a lot since 2016, but it’s hard to imagine that so many rejected Hillary over a last minute 30 minute investigation into emails, while an even larger number seem unconcerned about Trump 91 criminal charges. I don’t understand it.

 

10 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I at least think I understand it.  It was never about emails or his criminal charges, or anything of the like.  For the MAGA nuts, it's always been about being cruel, racist, extraordinarily selfish people.  They comprise about 60% of the current Republican Party, this is always who these people have been, they just never had a vocal champion to get behind; once they did, it allowed the to come to full froth in the public eye.  The other 40% of the Republican Party is comprised of people that were always willing to turn a blind eye to the others because the genuinely believe that Republican policies work in their favor (the vast majority of these folks are wrong, because while they believe they are wealthy, they really aren't).  So to me, the sad truth is that there are about 40 million voting Americans beyond saving or redemption of any sort, and there are about 30 million voting Americans who don't mind courting the folks beyond redemption because they believe it suits them.  

We aren't going to peel away pretty much anyone from the MAGA portion of this; as I said they are beyond redemption, with rare exception.  The target group is the 30 million of them that just court those idiots.  With those folks, we might have a chance of convincing them to either not vote or in rare exception get them to vote Biden.  10% makes this a blowout, 5% makes gives us a fairly comfortable path.  I wish I could tell you we could convince a larger number of people, but I don't really think that's realistic.  

BamaATL is partway there, in that the racist appeal worked with the union, blue collar workers of the Midwest that had been abandoned in every policy and taken for granted by every Democrat since Bill Clinton became president.

Between Clinton's support for NAFTA and globalization, gutting those jobs and careers, Howard Dean being caught saying something about pickup trucks and gun racks, and Obama bailing out the banks, a generation of Rust Belt workers had never seen anything good from the Democrats. On top of that, they then went and coronated the wife of the guy who started the whole thing, who didn't even BOTHER to show up to a couple of their states for a campaign visit, as opposed to the one guy who actually spoke their language and promised to do something for them.

So in 2016, if you were blue collar rust belt, you were either voting for the same sort of person who destroyed your future, or this guy who promised you revenge on those fuckers. It was an easy choice.

The biggest difference between 2024 and 2016 is that Biden has actually done something for those areas. He's the first guy in decades to finally deliver on the promises that the Democrats were supposed to be doing for those union guys, and the unions are overwhelmingly behind him.

And, at the same time, they all saw that Trump's "swamp draining" did nothing for them; if anything, they ended up worse off.

Meanwhile, the demographics are getting ugly. Not only are the old voters who support Trump older, the young voters who hate him far more numerous, but COVID absolutely affected the unvaccinated, who form his base, more than any other demographic.

On top of this, the GOP has lost any kind of policy directive; they are purely the party of Trump.

Predicted a few years back that we'd see the end of the Republican party because of this, because it fit the pattern of the death of American political parties from our history. As time has gone by, the mechanism of the GOP's self-destruction has become more apparent.

Yeah, they're following the same script the Nazis did, but this isn't the Weimar Republic. We aren't in crippling future-ending debt to the rest of the world because of last generation's mistakes, and our federal system makes our government different in kind from theirs. This attempt will fail.

Where we DO see historical similarities is in the fall of the Federalist and Whig parties, although the non-starter Know-Nothings and Bull Moose party are more similar in respects to the current GOP...

[Rimbo 27088]

and i didn't even start on the abortion thing

tldr: the Republican party is dead and unable to win on the national level any more; it just hasn't realized it yet

[Snake Diggity 4716]

10 hours ago, Rimbo said:

and i didn't even start on the abortion thing

tldr: the Republican party is dead and unable to win on the national level any more; it just hasn't realized it yet

I hope you are right but refuse to believe it until we have some proof.  If what you said is true then Biden should waltz to 310+ EV in November.

Edited March 11 by Snake Diggity

[Snake Diggity 4716]

There seems to be more downside vs 2020 than upside.  Which states can be reasonably expected that will turn blue in 2024 vs 2020?  North Carolina, maybe? Ohio and Iowa and Florida and Texas are the next closest states and they don’t seem all that close.  On the other side, Trump’s path is pretty clear: repeat 2020 but flip Georgia, Arizona, and either Wisconsin or Michigan.  That may not be likely, but a Trump victory seems an awful lot more possible than a Biden landslide.

Edited March 11 by Snake Diggity

[Js1 87281]

1 minute ago, Snake Diggity said:

I hope you are right but refuse to believe it until we have some proof.  If what you said is true then Biden should waltz to 300+ EV in November.

I know everyone is most concerned about Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona.   The one I do not see flipping back, at all, is Arizona.  First off, Dems swept into power there in 2022 with governor, AG, SOS + Mark Kelly winning again in a more favorable GOP environment.  The GOP has the most odious and unlikeable Senate candidate in big loser Kari Lake who is going to drag down the GOP slate there. 

Biden can lose WI + GA (which I doubt he loses both) and still win with 277. 

And let's recall - Wisconsin re-elected Evers and Johnson *barely* won in 2022 + flipping the state supreme court in 2023 and the Wisconsin legislature is finally unfucked and totally and completely competitive for the first time in decades.  Democrats have a reason to vote in Wisconsin.  

And I will not even entertain Michigan or Pennsylvania.  Big Gretch is not going to let Biden lose Michigan and the suburbs of PA are long fucking gone for the GOP.  

[South Austin 53261]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I know everyone is most concerned about Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona.   The one I do not see flipping back, at all, is Arizona.  First off, Dems swept into power there in 2022 with governor, AG, SOS + Mark Kelly winning again in a more favorable GOP environment.  The GOP has the most odious and unlikeable Senate candidate in big loser Kari Lake who is going to drag down the GOP slate there. 

Biden can lose WI + GA (which I doubt he loses both) and still win with 277. 

And let's recall - Wisconsin re-elected Evers and Johnson *barely* won in 2022 + flipping the state supreme court in 2023 and the Wisconsin legislature is finally unfucked and totally and completely competitive for the first time in decades.  Democrats have a reason to vote in Wisconsin.  

And I will not even entertain Michigan or Pennsylvania.  Big Gretch is not going to let Biden lose Michigan and the suburbs of PA are long fucking gone for the GOP.  

[Brisketexan 107009]

21 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

There seems to be more downside vs 2020 than upside.  Which states can be reasonably expected that will turn blue in 2024 vs 2020?  North Carolina, maybe? Ohio and Iowa and Florida and Texas are the next closest states and they don’t seem all that close.  On the other side, Trump’s path is pretty clear: repeat 2020 but flip Georgia, Arizona, and either Wisconsin or Michigan.  That may not be likely, but a Trump victory seems an awful lot more possible than a Biden landslide.

This is our concern, dude.  And the downside of that victory is too fucking horrific for anyone to get a decent night's sleep between now and election day.

[Snake Diggity 4716]

23 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I know everyone is most concerned about Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona.   The one I do not see flipping back, at all, is Arizona.  First off, Dems swept into power there in 2022 with governor, AG, SOS + Mark Kelly winning again in a more favorable GOP environment.  The GOP has the most odious and unlikeable Senate candidate in big loser Kari Lake who is going to drag down the GOP slate there. 

Biden can lose WI + GA (which I doubt he loses both) and still win with 277. 

And let's recall - Wisconsin re-elected Evers and Johnson *barely* won in 2022 + flipping the state supreme court in 2023 and the Wisconsin legislature is finally unfucked and totally and completely competitive for the first time in decades.  Democrats have a reason to vote in Wisconsin.  

And I will not even entertain Michigan or Pennsylvania.  Big Gretch is not going to let Biden lose Michigan and the suburbs of PA are long fucking gone for the GOP.  

I am not too worried about PA and I figure if Michigan goes then it probably means GA, AZ, and WI are even further gone.

Trump won in 2016 and was very fucking close to winning in 2020 despite all logic.  We can point all we want to “why” Biden should easily win those swing states, but Trump has shown that obvious logic often does not apply to his outcomes.

[BamaATL 16593]

A side note about Georgia that I think is relevant is the population growth of Atlanta.  In the four years since 2020, the population has grown by estimated 450k.  Obviously, not all these folks are going to be democratic voters, but a better than majority are.  The days of Georgia being under a rural strangle hold are over.  We still have to turn out, but I like our chances of holding here.  

[chainsaw 10307]

19 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

The days of Georgia being under a rural strangle hold are over.  We still have to turn out, but I like our chances of holding here.  

Counterpoint:

[BamaATL 16593]

5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Counterpoint:

Fuck we are doomed.  

[TexPx 2337]

A side note about Georgia that I think is relevant is the population growth of Atlanta.  In the four years since 2020, the population has grown by estimated 450k.  Obviously, not all these folks are going to be democratic voters, but a better than majority are.  The days of Georgia being under a rural strangle hold are over.  We still have to turn out, but I like our chances of holding here.  

Reverse migration?

[BamaATL 16593]

5 minutes ago, TexPx said:

Reverse migration?

That's certainly part of things, but not the entire story.  We get a lot from the northeast, New England area as well.  

[Rimbo 27088]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

I hope you are right but refuse to believe it until we have some proof.  If what you said is true then Biden should waltz to 310+ EV in November.

I mean, we already have proof. What we don't have is certainty, because the election is happening eight months from now, and not today. Though when you pile the Republicans' financial woes - which will be made much worse now that a Trump family member holds the purse-strings - the trend looks like things will get even worse than they are now for Trump.

Again... it's not about what we don't know now like you say; we know plenty now. It's what COULD happen over the next eight months that leaves room for doubt.

Edited March 11 by Rimbo

[Rimbo 27088]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

There seems to be more downside vs 2020 than upside.

There is absolutely zero evidence to support this.

Unless you're hiding something or helping it a secret.

[TexPx 2337]

That's certainly part of things, but not the entire story.  We get a lot from the northeast, New England area as well.  

Isn’t most of reverse migration people from the northeast (and Midwest) moving back to the South?

[Snake Diggity 4716]

1 hour ago, Rimbo said:

There is absolutely zero evidence to support this.

Unless you're hiding something or helping it a secret.

Are you saying you think the odds are high that Biden will achieve a larger EV victory than he did in 2020?  Which states that went red in 2020 do you think are actually in play for Biden in 2024?

[tx 3 putt 78739]

More free ads ….

 

[tx 3 putt 78739]

 

[tx 3 putt 78739]

He’s a blabbering ad ….

 

[Gap03 3395]

12 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

He’s a blabbering ad ….

 

Dotard putting out strong Dr. Lexus vibes ...

 

[tx 3 putt 78739]

All this needs to be dem ads ….

 

[YGIFS 19458]

The only thing I doubt about that 1000 page Project2025 report is that Trump has actually read it.  

[elfenix 34775]

Congressional Republicans do a 180 on banning TikTok in 3 ... 2 .... 1 

Edited March 11 by elfenix

[Rimbo 27088]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Are you saying you think the odds are high that Biden will achieve a larger EV victory than he did in 2020?  Which states that went red in 2020 do you think are actually in play for Biden in 2024?

Look, don't get ad ignoratum on me again, trying to flip this back on me to try and produce evidence countering your claim.

You made a claim with no evidence. I'm asking YOU to show YOUR work. I've already shown you mine.

[Js1 87281]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Are you saying you think the odds are high that Biden will achieve a larger EV victory than he did in 2020?  Which states that went red in 2020 do you think are actually in play for Biden in 2024?

Let's look at it objectively

The closest states were Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada.  All were under 3 points.

Then you can expand it to Florida and Texas (3-6 points).  There's not really much else, as the next two on the top 10 list are Minnesota and NH and both were 7 point wins. 

So...North Carolina is probably the only one. 

[Snake Diggity 4716]

3 hours ago, Rimbo said:

There is absolutely zero evidence to support this.

Unless you're hiding something or helping it a secret.

 

28 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Look, don't get ad ignoratum on me again, trying to flip this back on me to try and produce evidence countering your claim.

You made a claim with no evidence. I'm asking YOU to show YOUR work. I've already shown you mine.

Relax, lil’ fella. My comment wasn’t in response to anything you said.  I quoted your response to me.  You didn’t show shit.  But since you asked, here’s the margin in 2020 of the closest states:

Blue states most at risk to flip red in 2024:

AZ, GA, WI: <1%

PA: <2%

NV, MI: <3%

Red states most at risk to flip blue in 2024:

NC <2%

FL <4%

No other red states were within 5 points in 2020.

Now you tell me how there’s more upside than downside for Biden vs 2020.

[tx 3 putt 78739]

 

[Js1 87281]

3 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Now you tell me how there’s more upside than downside for Biden vs 2020.

My assertion of more upside is:

• 2022 in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia (Senate), Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania were not indicative of a state leaning back the other way.  Nevada was the only state that elected a GOP governor, but that was a very local issue, not federal (COVID restrictions by the Dem governor) - Dems maintained the other row offices and their Senate seat.
• GOP parties in Michigan, Georgia, Arizona are a fucking mess
• Non-competitive Senate nominees in NV, WI, MI, PA so far.  AZ is re-nominating a loser from 2022.
• Special election results since Dobbs

It's also very early.  People are finally realizing it's going to be Biden v Trump.  But even then, people won't be tuning in until August.

[chainsaw 10307]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

My assertion of more upside is:

• 2022 in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia (Senate), Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania were not indicative of a state leaning back the other way.  Nevada was the only state that elected a GOP governor, but that was a very local issue, not federal (COVID restrictions by the Dem governor) - Dems maintained the other row offices and their Senate seat.
• GOP parties in Michigan, Georgia, Arizona are a fucking mess
• Non-competitive Senate nominees in NV, WI, MI, PA so far.  AZ is re-nominating a loser from 2022.
• Special election results since Dobbs

It's also very early.  People are finally realizing it's going to be Biden v Trump.  But even then, people won't be tuning in until August.

That and the GOP's main issue is "border border" but instead of average families feeling the pain from that the party has to dig back 20 years to something that didn't even happen in the US.

[Red Five 41780]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It's also very early.  People are finally realizing it's going to be Biden v Trump.  But even then, people won't be tuning in until August.

If you believe the polling, this will be a landslide if Trump is convicted in any of his cases. There are supposedly a lot of people who would vote for him right now, but not if he's convicted of a felony. I don't think I believe them, but it's something to hope for.

[Snake Diggity 4716]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

My assertion of more upside is:

• 2022 in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia (Senate), Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania were not indicative of a state leaning back the other way.  Nevada was the only state that elected a GOP governor, but that was a very local issue, not federal (COVID restrictions by the Dem governor) - Dems maintained the other row offices and their Senate seat.
• GOP parties in Michigan, Georgia, Arizona are a fucking mess
• Non-competitive Senate nominees in NV, WI, MI, PA so far.  AZ is re-nominating a loser from 2022.
• Special election results since Dobbs

It's also very early.  People are finally realizing it's going to be Biden v Trump.  But even then, people won't be tuning in until August.

But Biden won all those states in 2020.  Sure, we can hope the margins aren’t as close, but there’s no upside there in terms of EVs.

[Js1 87281]

Just now, Red Five said:

If you believe the polling, this will be a landslide if Trump is convicted in any of his cases. There are supposedly a lot of people who would vote for him right now, but not if he's convicted of a felony. I don't think I believe them, but it's something to hope for.

Also they’re actively discouraging support from Haley supporters. Just get 5% to vote Biden and 10% to stay home or skip the race. 

[tx 3 putt 78739]

GoP lack of funding to the state operations have to count for something 

Georgia asked for more money before the last election and was denied by the kush 

Edited March 11 by tx 3 putt

[Rimbo 27088]

19 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

But Biden won all those states in 2020.  Sure, we can hope the margins aren’t as close, but there’s no upside there in terms of EVs.

The upside is that they're less likely to flip even though the margins were closer. See: 2022 results, failure to enact pro-GOP election "reforms," Biden economy being strong, Trump unpopularity increasing nationwide, GOP financial issues. Also, abortion is a huge pro-D swing, and the NY congressional race last month showed that failure to enact the bipartisan border security bill has basically gift-wrapped that issue to the Democrats.

Plus all the other things I've added.

The GOP's only remaining "issue" is "do ya like Trump?" and people don't.

So all the numbers are going to swing D. It's not even worth considering if states that went for Biden in 2020 might swing back any more.

[Js1 87281]

Also by the summer, the race is a straight up “democracy or fascist dictatorship” head to head. I think most independents (real ones) won’t care for a dictatorship.

People really just gotta bite the bullet with Biden - at least he means we have an actual election in 2028