2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[chainsaw 9668]

I believe MAGA fatigue has sunken in with the base. This time in 2020 you saw a lot more "trump train" events, more flags, more yard signs, more bumper stickers. And no I don't think it's because these people became self-aware and adopted some kind of strategy of being less annoying. These people have not changed their values, and I expect most of them to still vote, but their reduced enthusiasm is a key indicator of something and I don't think it's something good for Trump.

[Rimbo 25252]

12 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I believe MAGA fatigue has sunken in with the base. This time in 2020 you saw a lot more "trump train" events, more flags, more yard signs, more bumper stickers. And no I don't think it's because these people became self-aware and adopted some kind of strategy of being less annoying. These people have not changed their values, and I expect most of them to still vote, but their reduced enthusiasm is a key indicator of something and I don't think it's something good for Trump.

And they're tapped out financially as well. You can't just keep going back to the same well over and over again, especially when it was shallow to begin with.

[TeeDubya 3329]

1 minute ago, Rimbo said:

And they're tapped out financially as well. You can't just keep going back to the same well over and over again, especially when it was shallow to begin with.

Memaw can only miss so many weeks of her meds.

[956 Worldwide 34019]

ODNI: The PRC is likely to use TikTok to meddle in U.S. elections. 
 

DJT: “You know actually TikTok isn’t that bad.” 
 

 

Edited March 11 by 956 Worldwide

[henrygandorf 28910]

leopards, faces, etc. 

[Js1 83679]

8 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

ODNI: The PRC is likely to use TikTok to meddle in U.S. elections. 
 

DJT: “You know actually TikTok isn’t that bad.” 
 

 

I like How Trump calls Facebook the enemy of the people as if Facebook isn’t why he got elected 

[956 Worldwide 34019]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I like How Trump calls Facebook the enemy of the people as if Facebook isn’t why he got elected 

It’s wild how we all decided that Facebook is over and it just keeps chugging along adding users. Its influence is tremendous (Trump word), it’s now like the network news of social media sites. Seemingly passé but dominant.

[atomheartbevo 89054]

38 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

leopards, faces, etc. 

Putting aside the loss of institutional knowledge and knowing how all of the state races work, what needs to be funded, etc. the RNC is now going to be run by grifters who could give two shits about down ballot/state races, and instead will be funneling resources into what they care about.

Just imagine long time RNC operatives being pushed out in favor of *checks notes* a bunch of catturd2 wannabes who were noticed for their social media posts.  

I love that Dotard is purging the people who made the proverbial trains run on time for the RNC.

Now would be a good time for somebody to fire up a Whig or Bill-Moose party.

[Biff Tannen 45226]

22 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Bill-Moose party.

Is that a Clinton-Teddy mash up?  Blowjobs and Rough Rides for everyone?

[Pato del Muerto 52117]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

I like How Trump calls Facebook the enemy of the people as if Facebook isn’t why he got elected 

Isn’t that fact proving him correct?

[henrygandorf 28910]

32 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Just imagine long time RNC operatives being pushed out in favor of *checks notes* a bunch of catturd2 wannabes who were noticed for their social media posts.  

you can pretty much picture the scene.  new rnc leadership walks into a big room, announces that part of trump's vision is get rid of career political people, enough is enough, drain the swamp, etc.

the room hoots and hollers.  then most of them get fired.

cut to people carrying their shit out in boxes looking at each other confused saying, "i didn't think they meant us".

[Biff Tannen 45226]

2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

cut to people carrying their shit out in boxes looking at each other confused saying, "i didn't think they meant us".

[Gatorubet 29789]

1 hour ago, TeeDubya said:

Memaw can only miss so many weeks of her meds.

I dunno know, man, I think Memaw off her meds for a few weeks might give more

” I don’t see any food in your pantry or refrigerator Memaw - when’s the last time you ate something?”

“Yesterday…I always have fish on Mondays… “

” What? Today is Saturday, Memaw!!  I I‘ll make you a nice cuppa tea and …is your faucet broken? I’m not getting any water.   Jesus! Where in God‘s name did you get those horrible gold sneakers?”

[Hookah Horns 2923]

It blows my fuckin mind that Trump isn't getting crushed in every poll. I can't fuckin believe how dumb this country is. 

[Slacks 6723]

2 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

leopards, faces, etc. 

[Biff Tannen 45226]

7 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

It blows my fuckin mind that Trump isn't getting crushed in every poll. I can't fuckin believe how dumb this country is. 

I'm telling you man.  I think this is just our fate.  We flew too close to the sun on wings of pastrami the internet.  Or something.  But I think the internet and social media completely broke us and there is no way back.

1 minute ago, Slacks said:

That's a cheetah

[Pato del Muerto 52117]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

 

That's a cheetah

Why you gotta put that guy on blast like that?

[Slacks 6723]

Ya know... I'm starting to think Trump might be a double agent who's real to goal is to destroy the Republican Party.

Of course, he will want his own party in return, which he can have... Until he BKs it and shuts it down.

3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

 

That's a cheetah

220. 221.

Edited March 12 by Slacks

[Rimbo 25252]

29 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

It blows my fuckin mind that Trump isn't getting crushed in every poll. I can't fuckin believe how dumb this country is. 

 

Smart people don't answer the phone when pollsters call.

 

18 minutes ago, Slacks said:

Ya know... I'm starting to think Trump might be a double agent who's real to goal is to destroy the Republican Party.

Of course, he will want his own party in return, which he can have... Until he BKs it and shuts it down.

220. 221.

 

Why would he get a new party? He already has one. The GOP.

I mean, I'd been thinking for years that "Trump is a double agent" would be an easy sell to the Q-Anon conspiracy theorists. Nothing sells an idea to a conspiracy theorist better than hearing them out, and then adding, "That's just what they WANT you to think, maaaaan... look at what's going on here..."

Anyway. Dog and I have been talking between ourselves for years that the death of the GOP was going to be the end result, but it was never the endgame. Trump isn't smart enough to do that. He is both charismatic enough, and fucked up enough, to take the party down with him. It's... interesting to see how that old prediction has played out.

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1548]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

I like How Trump calls Facebook the enemy of the people as if Facebook isn’t why he got elected 

he got elected because and solely because:

 

[BevoAbyss 1972]

20 hours ago, Rimbo said:

On top of this, the GOP has lost any kind of policy directive

Come on, dude. How can you possibly think this? 

How could you say this to women? People of color? Educators? LGBTQIA? IVF doctors and reproductive doctors? Scientists? Atheists? Environmentalists? ... the list keeps growing. They are passing laws and attacking standards all over the country and own the Supreme Court (plus many federal judges).

The GQP has a crystal clear "policy directive" and it is obvious. It's called fascism and theocracy. An idiot-world Team USA ruled by Christian fanatics, racists, barbarians, and billionaires ... with an overweight orange-faced simian at the top of the heap ... with tiny hands on the nuclear buttons. And 45-50% of America is fully on board.

 

Edited March 12 by BevoAbyss

[David Dennison 17804]

19 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Smart people don't answer the phone when pollsters call.

[Hookah Horns 2923]

28 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

 

Smart people don't answer the phone when pollsters call.

Definitely some truth to this and it's what I've been telling myself. Hopefully, if/when Trump does end up getting crushed, political opinion polls will be universally acknowledged as useless. 

[Rimbo 25252]

34 minutes ago, Hookah Horns said:

Definitely some truth to this and it's what I've been telling myself. Hopefully, if/when Trump does end up getting crushed, political opinion polls will be universally acknowledged as useless. 

The polls have been understating the Democrats' actual numbers for quite a while now. And it's getting worse. That NY congressional race? Polls showed it as being neck-and-neck; the end result, the Democrat won by 7.5%. And in a heavily Republican district. (NYTimes: "Here's why that's bad for Joe Biden." I'm not even making this up.)

[Goredho 17181]

On 3/10/2024 at 4:42 PM, BeardIP said:

Biden will walk into the end zone in November. It will be “red wave bust” 2.0 from a couple of years ago, but to hear everyone here tell it, Trump is halfway moved in to the White House already.
 

This is nothing like 2020 and Trump and the Trump machine is so far from 2016 shape that it might as well been a fever dream a lifetime ago.

 

On 3/10/2024 at 6:00 PM, Brian Fantana said:

Same here. I think the people doing victory laps already are fucking insane. As if anyone thought Trump could win in 2016.

Remember this?

A 2019 report by the Senate Intelligence Committee^[161] found "an unprecedented level of activity against state election infrastructure" by Russian intelligence in 2016.^[162] The activity occurred in "all 50 states" and is thought by "many officials and experts" to have been "a trial run ... to probe American defenses and identify weaknesses in the vast back-end apparatus—voter-registration operations, state and local election databases, electronic poll books and other equipment" of state election systems.^[163] The report warned that the United States "remains vulnerable" in the 2020 election.^[162]

During the summer and fall of 2016, Russian hackers intruded into voter databases and software systems in 39 different states, alarming Obama administration officials to the point that they took the unprecedented step of contacting Moscow directly via the Moscow–Washington hotline and warning that the attacks risked setting off a broader conflict.^[164]

In May 2018, the Senate Intelligence Committee released its interim report on election security.^[174] The committee concluded, on a bipartisan basis, that the response of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to Russian government-sponsored efforts to undermine confidence in the U.S. voting process was "inadequate". The committee reported that the Russian government was able to penetrate election systems in at least 18, and possibly up to 21, states, and that in a smaller subset of states, infiltrators "could have altered or deleted voter registration data", although they lacked the ability to manipulate individual votes or vote tallies. 

And this?

Former President Donald Trump on Saturday said he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any NATO member country that doesn’t meet spending guidelines on defense in a stunning admission he would not abide by the collective-defense clause at the heart of the alliance if reelected.

I have no clue who is going to win in November, but I think there are two things you can bank on.  Putin is going to go for broke to get Trump re-elected, and Trump would do anything to secure and aid those efforts.

[gmr548 16316]

3 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

ODNI: The PRC is likely to use TikTok to meddle in U.S. elections. 
 

DJT: “You know actually TikTok isn’t that bad.” 
 

 

 

1 hour ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

he got elected because and solely because:

 

Trump was elected because of the Electoral College. This woman received 2.9MM more votes than Trump did. For context, her popular vote margin would be a top 20 MSA and larger than the population of 13 states even today.

Biden's margin would be the #6 MSA and larger than 35 states. Trump only has a prayer in the first place because of the Electoral College.

[CTC2 2658]

I’ve just found it completely reasonable that Republicans have made backchannel agreements with Russia and China. 
Republicans agree to stop Ukraine funding so Putin gets to do his thing.  Russia in turn interferes in the election so Trump seemingly wins.  China takes Taiwan and no one gives a shit. 
I do a lot of weed so I guess that could be why. 

[Rimbo 25252]

1 hour ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

he got elected because and solely because:

 

That is the one-photo version of what I posted here, more or less.

Democrats nominate anyone unassociated with the Bill Clinton presidency, they walk into the White House in 2016. Instead, they literally threw another Clinton at us.

[gmr548 16316]

4 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

ODNI: The PRC is likely to use TikTok to meddle in U.S. elections. 
 

DJT: “You know actually TikTok isn’t that bad.” 
 

 

Meant to multiquote this but somehow fucked it up.

I'd actually be curious to be a fly on the wall in Chinese discussions on American elections. On the one hand, Trump clearly hurts them in the short term with his trade vendetta. It's economically destabilizing and with that comes a lot of risk for them. But Trump is also a much larger risk to American stability, which could elevate China. Long term, if Trump guts the US federal government and ushers in an economic meltdown, there's no doubt an opportunity for China.

[Biff Tannen 45226]

47 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Long term, if Trump guts the US federal government and ushers in an economic meltdown, there's no doubt an opportunity for China.

And China, like Russia, plays the long game.

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1548]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

 

Trump was elected because of the Electoral College. This woman received 2.9MM more votes than Trump did. For context, her popular vote margin would be a top 20 MSA and larger than the population of 13 states even today.

Biden's margin would be the #6 MSA and larger than 35 states. Trump only has a prayer in the first place because of the Electoral College.

EC always determines the winner.  I think Biden loses but has 7 million more. That's our corrupted system, we are powerless.

[Rimbo 25252]

5 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

EC always determines the winner.  I think Biden loses but has 7 million more. That's our corrupted system, we are powerless.

Based on what? How? Where are these magical fantasy EC votes going to come from? How is Trump going to magically conjure them up? Things don't just happen randomly. They happen for reasons.

[Gil Bang 25689]

5 hours ago, Js1 said:

I like How Trump calls Facebook the enemy of the people as if Facebook isn’t why he got elected 

It's not like they were running anti-Hillary ads where they got paid in Rubles.

 

 

 

What's that you say?  They ACTUALLY got paid in Rubles for anti-Hillary ads?     

 

 

Can we all agree that Charlie Strong was right about something?

[Satchel 6903]

In recent days, Trump has made a couple of significant policy position reversals that have gone largely unnoticed by most media. When  the lobbyists for Bud Lite’s parent company announced the sponsorship of a 10k a plate Trump fundraiser, he publicly appealed to his followers to stop boycotting Bud Lite. More recently, he has sought and received the support of Jeff Yass who holds a 33 billion dollar share of TikTok. Guess what? After his years long crusade to de-platform TikTok in the US, he’s suddenly had a change of heart.

Anybody else agree with Steve Bannon who has reluctantly come to the inescapable conclusion that Trump may have been bought?
 

https://apnews.com/article/social-media-donald-trump-8e6e2f0a092135428c82c0cfa6598444

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1548]

46 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Based on what? How? Where are these magical fantasy EC votes going to come from? How is Trump going to magically conjure them up? Things don't just happen randomly. They happen for reasons.

if Trump is given GA, all he needs is PA 

edit:  Biden wins even if Trump takes MI, but PA is the key given GA to Trump

Edited March 12 by Make em eat Taco Bell

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1548]

and if the LOON RFK jr makes a 1-2% difference somewhere, Biden is dead.

so it might come down to a handful of PA swing counties, which is damn scary for the fate of this nation and the world. 

[aggie08 20487]

12 minutes ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

and if the LOON RFK jr makes a 1-2% difference somewhere, Biden is dead.

Nutjob conspiracy theorists who lie easier than breathing aren't taking votes away from Democrats. 

[Schulz2.0 28652]

4 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Nutjob conspiracy theorists who lie easier than breathing aren't taking votes away from Democrats. 

Yep, the "RFK Jr is going to take away Dem votes" argument doesn't make much sense.

[Rimbo 25252]

1 hour ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

if Trump is given GA, all he needs is PA 

edit:  Biden wins even if Trump takes MI, but PA is the key given GA to Trump

gah, we've been over this already

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1548]

57 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Nutjob conspiracy theorists who lie easier than breathing aren't taking votes away from Democrats. 

yes they are if name is Kennedy.  Also have to worry about Green Party. 

Edited March 12 by Make em eat Taco Bell

[tx 3 putt 75560]

Looks like the new trump gop has a game plan to keep down the vote ….

 

[tx 3 putt 75560]

 

[staboner 4941]

2 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Yep, the "RFK Jr is going to take away Dem votes" argument doesn't make much sense.

 

2 hours ago, aggie08 said:

Nutjob conspiracy theorists who lie easier than breathing aren't taking votes away from Democrats. 

I don't find this to be true. I know a few 20-something Americans abroad now that will vote for RFK jr. These are, for the most part, people who I find intelligent, but young and malleable. The anti-war, anti-Israel side is why they won't vote D. At least thats what they are saying as explanation. Anecdotal but hey its all we got. Who knows

oh and they hate trump

Edited March 12 by staboner

[Schulz2.0 28652]

54 minutes ago, staboner said:

 

I don't find this to be true. I know a few 20-something Americans abroad now that will vote for RFK jr. These are, for the most part, people who I find intelligent, but young and malleable. The anti-war, anti-Israel side is why they won't vote D. At least thats what they are saying as explanation. Anecdotal but hey its all we got. Who knows

oh and they hate trump

They don't sound intelligent.

[Huckleberry 32417]

5 hours ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

yes they are if name is Kennedy.  Also have to worry about Green Party. 

lullz

[Snake Diggity 4574]

Probably 2-3% (maybe more) of general election voters are absolutely desperate to vote for anyone other than Biden or Trump.  Those voters will break toward Biden if there is no 3rd party candidate.  In that way, any 3rd party candidate, including RFK Jr., will take away votes from Biden.

[Huckleberry 32417]

5 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Probably 2-3% (maybe more) of general election voters are absolutely desperate to vote for anyone other than Biden or Trump.  Those voters will break toward Biden if there is no 3rd party candidate.  In that way, any 3rd party candidate, including RFK Jr., will take away votes from Biden.

Wild ass guess, assumption with no supporting evidence, ergo point proven. 

Hard to argue with that. 

[Snake Diggity 4574]

7 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Wild ass guess, assumption with no supporting evidence, ergo point proven. 

Hard to argue with that. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-03-04/2024-presidential-election-s-key-voters-hate-both-trump-biden?embedded-checkout=true
 

That article pegs it at 3-5%.  You can google “double haters” and see pretty easily that it’s not a “wild ass guess” in terms of % of electorate and who they break for.

[Js1 83679]

15 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Probably 2-3% (maybe more) of general election voters are absolutely desperate to vote for anyone other than Biden or Trump.  Those voters will break toward Biden if there is no 3rd party candidate.  In that way, any 3rd party candidate, including RFK Jr., will take away votes from Biden.

First off, you're going to have cite your work that RFK is pulling from Biden and not Trump.  Because Trump is much more worried about RFK Jr. than Biden is.

And 2-3% is likely.  It was 1.85% in 2020.  2016 was 5% but I highly doubt it will be that high again.  I think 2-3% is likely, but not seeing anything that anti-vax nutjob RFK Jr. is pulling from Biden. 

1 minute ago, Snake Diggity said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-03-04/2024-presidential-election-s-key-voters-hate-both-trump-biden?embedded-checkout=true
 

That article pegs it at 3-5%.  You can google “double haters” and see pretty easily that it’s not a “wild ass guess” in terms of % of electorate and who they break for.

Also there's already polling that the voters who don't like either candidate lean towards Biden by a large margin.  That was in his favor in 2020 and in Trump's favor in 2016.

[Pato del Muerto 52117]

5 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-03-04/2024-presidential-election-s-key-voters-hate-both-trump-biden?embedded-checkout=true
 

That article pegs it at 3-5%.  You can google “double haters” and see pretty easily that it’s not a “wild ass guess” in terms of % of electorate and who they break for.

That article doesn’t even begin to attempt to say who the double haters will vote for or how they have voted previously. 
 

it also relies on polling data. Is polling data reliable at present?  If it is, then Trump is winning the election anyway, right?