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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4,572

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3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

First off, you're going to have cite your work that RFK is pulling from Biden and not Trump.  Because Trump is much more worried about RFK Jr. than Biden is.

And 2-3% is likely.  It was 1.85% in 2020.  2016 was 5% but I highly doubt it will be that high again.  I think 2-3% is likely, but not seeing anything that anti-vax nutjob RFK Jr. is pulling from Biden. 

There’s definitely question as to RFK’s specific impact.  Registered democrats have a more unfavorable view of him but I don’t think those voters make up the double haters.  My guess is that the double haters are mostly former Republicans who Trump has turned away. 

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A conversation with my wife: ”We have to go to Chili’s when Kamala wins.” ”…Why?” ”Because that’s what Surly is doing.” ”We have to go to Chili’s because of Surly.” “Yes.”

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11,598

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9 hours ago, Satchel said:

In recent days, Trump has made a couple of significant policy position reversals that have gone largely unnoticed by most media. When  the lobbyists for Bud Lite’s parent company announced the sponsorship of a 10k a plate Trump fundraiser, he publicly appealed to his followers to stop boycotting Bud Lite. More recently, he has sought and received the support of Jeff Yass who holds a 33 billion dollar share of TikTok. Guess what? After his years long crusade to de-platform TikTok in the US, he’s suddenly had a change of heart.

Anybody else agree with Steve Bannon who has reluctantly come to the inescapable conclusion that Trump may have been bought?
 

https://apnews.com/article/social-media-donald-trump-8e6e2f0a092135428c82c0cfa6598444

Bud Light.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,044

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7 hours ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

yes they are if name is Kennedy.  Also have to worry about Green Party. 

41 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Probably 2-3% (maybe more) of general election voters are absolutely desperate to vote for anyone other than Biden or Trump.  Those voters will break toward Biden if there is no 3rd party candidate.  In that way, any 3rd party candidate, including RFK Jr., will take away votes from Biden.

Is he on any ballots for November? And his supporters sound an awful lot like the types of past voters who were never going to vote for a major party candidate. People who wouldn’t bother to even show up and vote unless a third party candidate they liked was on the ballot.  

Toss in his batshit conspiracy theories that play well to the Qanon idiots and these people were probably never going to vote for Biden. And maybe not even Trump.  

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4,572

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Just now, atomheartbevo said:

Is he on any ballots for November? And his supporters sound an awful lot like the types of past voters who were never going to vote for a major party candidate. People who wouldn’t bother to even show up and vote unless a third party candidate they liked was on the ballot.  

Toss in his batshit conspiracy theories that play well to the Qanon idiots and these people were probably never going to vote for Biden. And maybe not even Trump.  

He’s already got the signatures to be on it in AZ and GA.

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19,445

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The Democratic Party would do well to create a video timeline with dates of the things Trump has claimed like a Facebook feed or something familiar.  Start with the airports at the Revolutionary War through his defeat of Obama in 2016 to his overturning of Roe when he wasn’t President to the pending Second World War.  
 

it would change any R votes to D.  But the idea is to keep humiliating that middle third of his voters so a few million just finally say “I just can’t with this fucking guy anymore.”

but anyway, I think it’s a decent idea and none of it would have to  be fake.  Though many would claim it was AI generated.  
 

we crack wise on here about being on the stupidest timeline every single day.  Let’s build out the actual chronological timeline based on the shit he says and watch heads implode.  

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Red Five

Red Five 40,449

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21 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

The Democratic Party would do well to create a video timeline with dates of the things Trump has claimed like a Facebook feed or something familiar.  Start with the airports at the Revolutionary War through his defeat of Obama in 2016 to his overturning of Roe when he wasn’t President to the pending Second World War.  

Maybe mix in the time he said to "take all the guns". And the talk of cutting SS and medicare. 

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Js1

Js1 83,621

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1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Maybe mix in the time he said to "take all the guns". And the talk of cutting SS and medicare. 

Bingo.  Time to scare the olds.  

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19,445

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30 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Maybe mix in the time he said to "take all the guns". And the talk of cutting SS and medicare. 

Well, yeah you can just list out all the shit he said he was gonna do/not gonna do that he completely failed on.  But watching that video in the House hearing...I was just realizing that yes, he lies about issues every fucking day.  But to just put "his world chronology" into like a facebook mockup timeline deal that his 50+ voters would understand visually with the appropriate video/audio/social media posts & clips.  I mean even their brains would look at it and think "THAT DON'T MAKE NO SENSE."  Again, they're not gonna onboard it and vote for Biden and but a not insignificant amount of his middle third base would think, "Well fuck me, he doesn't know about 1700's lack of airports and that we already had WWII and that he ran against Hillary in 2016."  Some sort of just concise visual that they're used to seeing that at least makes them feel some internal shame.  These people aren't watching the hearings and reading the shit we do.  But condense it into something familiar, based purely on Trump's revision of history.  That he worked with Frederick Douglas, overturned Roe, laid out the Afghani pullout years before it happened, etc.  I mean, it's not gonna move the needle but for 1-2 points, but we sickies gotta agree-it'd be fun as fuck to watch brains melt.  I dunno, just thought I'd throw something different out there for once besides Seinfeld quotes and longcat slurs against the stupids.  

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 75,524

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50 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Dems need not to overthink this. Keep running the plays that have been working (abortion, economy) and shore up the weak spots (Gaza, immigration).


they need to hammer the counties surrounding the major cities. When that female vote 

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Js1

Js1 83,621

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Yes Aaron Rodgers, noted liberal. Very concerning for Biden 😂 all those Biden supporters will be flocking to the biggest anti-vax ticket 

Wisconsin and Michigan would be locked up for Biden

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 29,764

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47 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I know there's been a lot of concern with those tiny sample sizes in national polls (the smaller the sample, the wonkier they turn out)

 

As a demographic, eligible black voters are younger than other demographics. advantage Democrats. In addition, there are more women black voters than men black voters. As of 2022 over half of black voters are located in seven states: Texas,Georgia, Florida, New York, California, North Carolina, Michigan, Maryland and Illinois. The order listed is from the largest population to the next largest. 

it is probably safe to say that Texas, Florida, New York, California, Maryland, and Illinois are states with outcomes already decided.

From the last several elections Georgia has been trending more Democratic thanks to the black vote, and it would surprise me if that changes. What is critical is North Carolina, as that was the closest Biden loss and there is a chance to pick up that state.

Finally, female black voters number about 6% more than black males.  My wild ass guess is that more male blacks polled wood favor Trump than females - with less of a chance that the males will actually pull the lever. The sisters, however, get their vote on.  We need some reproductive rights issue on every freaking ballot in November 24.

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22,342

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3 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I'll be honest, if Aaron Rodgers suffers the Kennedy curse, I wouldn't be sad. 

Have you met a Jets fan?  Homeboy won't even make it to the election if he bails on that fanbase for a vanity run like this.

Edited by Chuckie Finster
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BamaATL

BamaATL 16,251

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1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Have you met a Jets fan?  Homeboy won't even make it to the election if he bails on that fanbase for a vanity run like this.

I don't care about the NFL, I'm just tired of hearing from this simpleton in any capacity.  

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aggie08

aggie08 20,486

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3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Yes Aaron Rodgers, noted liberal. Very concerning for Biden 😂 all those Biden supporters will be flocking to the biggest anti-vax ticket 

Wisconsin and Michigan would be locked up for Biden

Noooo! Going to be siphoning off votes from Biden left and right! Democrats were counting on the "I like Trump, but he's not extreme enough, and didn't he try to take credit for the vaccine?" vote. Kennedy/Rodgers is going to do work in the suburbs with weekly Rogan and McAfee appearances!

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Satchel

Satchel 6,902

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This is a very positive development:

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/anti-trump-group-of-republicans-lays-out-50-million-plan-of-attack/

A Republican group dedicated to opposing former President Donald Trump is planning to spend $50 million to stop him through a series of homemade testimonial videos of voters who backed him in past elections but say they can no longer support him in 2024. 

The group, Republican Voters Against Trump, first emerged in the 2020 campaign and made a return appearance for the 2022 midterm elections. It is run by Sarah Longwell, a leading figure in Never-Trump politics whose focus groups and polling are a staple of center-right podcasts and have made her a go-to figure for political reporters aiming to decipher the motivations behind Trump supporters. 

Unlike Democratic organizations that aim to help President Joe Biden by promoting his record in office, Longwell’s group focuses solely on attacking Trump through the voices of his former backers. The Republican Voters Against Trump website features 100 videos, from one to three minutes long, of Republicans speaking to a computer or mobile-phone camera about why they voted for Trump in 2016 or 2020 and will not do so in 2024.

It’s really important to understand you’re not building a pro-Joe Biden coalition,” Longwell said. “You’re building an anti-Trump coalition.”

In 2020, Republican Voters Against Trump ended the presidential campaign with more than 1,000 homemade videos on its website of people who voted for Trump in 2016 but said they would not do so again. For 2024, the group is starting with 100 testimonials and instructions on its website for past Trump supporters to submit their own stories. 

So far, the anti-Trump Republicans who have recorded their thoughts for Longwell have focused on Trump’s attempt to overturn the 2020 election, blaming him for the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol.

Abortion, Longwell said, was a far less urgent concern for these voters. She said many of them did not connect Trump with the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision and did not believe he opposes the practice.

“They view Trump as a cultural moderate,” she said. “They think he’s paying for abortions. Nobody thinks this guy has an ounce of sexual morality. They don’t think he’s Mike Pence. And so that sort of helps him.”

Longwell said she had $20 million already committed to her 2024 effort and aimed to raise the rest of the money for her advertising campaign between now and the fall.

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bolverk

bolverk 29,097

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Someone help me out. Is this pretty much what will appear on the ballot in November?

  • Joe Biden/Kamala Harris (Democratic Party)
  • Trump/??? (GQP)
  • Robert F. Kennedy Jr./Jesse Ventura or Aaron Rodgers (Conspiracy Party)
  • Libertarian Party: No announced candidate
  • Yang's "centrist" Forward Party: No announced candidate 
  • Harlan Crow-funded "centrist" No Labels Party: No announced candidate
  • Jill Stein (Green Party)


I'm sure the appeal of Forward and No Labels to Never Trumpers will depend on their selected candidates and on how many states they can get on the ballot.

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TeeDubya

TeeDubya 3,329

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Trump showing more cracks in Georgia in the suburbs - Fulton, DeKalb, Gwinnett, Forsyth. Losing 25-50% of the vote there. 

Who ever, in their wildest dreams, would've expected GA governor Brian Kemp would stand up to Trump in 2020?

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Satchel

Satchel 6,902

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5 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

As a demographic, eligible black voters are younger than other demographics. advantage Democrats. In addition, there are more women black voters than men black voters. As of 2022 over half of black voters are located in seven states: Texas,Georgia, Florida, New York, California, North Carolina, Michigan, Maryland and Illinois. The order listed is from the largest population to the next largest. 

it is probably safe to say that Texas, Florida, New York, California, Maryland, and Illinois are states with outcomes already decided.

From the last several elections Georgia has been trending more Democratic thanks to the black vote, and it would surprise me if that changes. What is critical is North Carolina, as that was the closest Biden loss and there is a chance to pick up that state.

Finally, female black voters number about 6% more than black males.  My wild ass guess is that more male blacks polled wood favor Trump than females - with less of a chance that the males will actually pull the lever. The sisters, however, get their vote on.  We need some reproductive rights issue on every freaking ballot in November 24.

This is so much bullshit. Ain’t no 20% of black people voting for that ignoramus.

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 29,764

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Just now, Satchel said:

This is so much bullshit. Ain’t no 20% of black people voting for that ignoramus.

You must’ve meant to quote the post I was responding to. Nowhere in my post did I say that 20% of Black people would vote for Trump.

Because that would be bullshit.

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Satchel

Satchel 6,902

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5 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

You must’ve meant to quote the post I was responding to. Nowhere in my post did I say that 20% of Black people would vote for Trump.

Because that would be bullshit.

I was responding to the quote and tweet.

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52,114

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Amazing how a polling company as well as any media that reports the polls can look at a result like 20% black support for Trump, with the backdrop of polling inaccuracy for the past 8 years, and conclude not that the poll is flawed but rather that trump’s numbers with black voters are actually greatly improving. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,317

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https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/us-oil-record-2023-permian-shale-boom-18933093.php

Quote

The nation’s oil production reached an average of 12.9 million barrels per day in 2023, up from the previous global record of 12.3 million barrels per day set by the U.S. in 2019. The monthly average in December — 13.3 million barrels per day — was high enough to set a new monthly record.

If Biden and his dementia are leading our economy, keep the dementia coming.

Quote

The Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico is the largest oil-producing region in the country, accounting for roughly 40% of all U.S. crude oil production, and among the largest in the world.

And the Permian area of Texas will vote heavily for Trump. I guess they feel that Biden is holding them back.

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 75,524

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Trump had full control for 2 full years 2017-2019

POTUS
SCOTUS
HOUSE
SENATE
DOJ

Immigration bills passed = 0
Borders closed = 0
Wall money = 0
Illegal immigration soared up to a new record in 2019

Tax cuts for billionaires = 1
 

🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔

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Covri

Covri 6,154

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9 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

Trump had full control for 2 full years 2017-2019

POTUS
SCOTUS
HOUSE
SENATE
DOJ

Immigration bills passed = 0
Borders closed = 0
Wall money = 0
Illegal immigration soared up to a new record in 2019

Tax cuts for billionaires = 1
 

🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔

Yes but how many instances of civil unrest and culture wars? Checkmate society!

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