2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[naija 2804]

6 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Counterpoint: Shapiro doesn't belong in the same tier as Buttigieg. He authorized state paid hush money for a sexual assault by one of his top staffers. He licked the heels of Elise Stefanik. He cracked down on peaceful protests at Penn by actual students of Penn. He's only been gov for 18 months. 

Does Pete not have his own baggage? McKinsey, Lobbyist funding, bad, bad polling with Black voters during his run.

None of these are slam dunks or one far above the other. If it were a debate and talking head competition, yeah Buttigieg is likely #1 as a choice; but that's not the world we have to play in.

[Hank Kingsley 20147]

 

Edited July 28 by Hank Kingsley

[immamac 41747]

2 minutes ago, naija said:

Does Pete not have his own baggage? McKinsey, Lobbyist funding, bad, bad polling with Black voters during his run.

None of these are slam dunks or one far above the other. If it were a debate and talking head competition, yeah Buttigieg is likely #1 as a choice; but that's not the world we have to play in.

Buttigieg doesn't have baggage that isn't known and actually matters for credentials getting shit done. 

He's done an incredible job with transportation and it's biggest budget in decades. It cannot be understated how much he's changed so fast and how much he's deployed in a measurable and productive way. 

[Bozo_Casanova 25903]

52 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

The problem to overcome is those that think cost of groceries = economy.

To be fair, for around 90% of the American voting public, cost of living IS the economy and Democrats have to do a better job of connecting to that for middle class people and not treating it as a poverty problem. Speaking of connecting:
 

 

47 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I do like this guy a lot. Don't run from your record of...checks notes...feeding school children. Not being a shitbag should be an asset.

 

I don't know if this guy will be the pick or not, but this dude is demonstrating connection like Richard Schenck

 

[Aqua Buddha 14256]

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I agree about PA but Harris needs to win that on her own. PA/WI/MI will likely vote as a bloc yet again. If she can’t win PA, she’s not winning the other 2

Plenty of the candidates can speak to the WWC voters in those 3 states just as well as he can. Without his baggage and lack of a record 

This.  Harris wins or loses this on her own.  If she pings black turnout in Atlanta, then it's also there in Philly, Detroit, and Milwaukee.  It's why I think she should pick Kelly, which would help with NV and AZ.  

I suspect Harris wins all of these states and wins fairy easily.  I predict they'll call the election with the polls close on the west coast.

[Dutchrudder 11071]

49 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I do like this guy a lot. Don't run from your record of...checks notes...feeding school children. Not being a shitbag should be an asset.

 

I think there is an awesome TV show to be made of Tim Walz and Doug Emhoff going to local diners, amusement parks, small sports events and such. They can praise the local culture and food, while talking to everyday people about their concerns and problems with genuine empathy. They could call it "US Ambassadors to America" or something and feature them as a political dynamic duo highlighting the best parts of American culture while also calling attention and action to issues voters can impact. 

[Gourmand 7761]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

Better surrogates than VPs. I think Walz has some juice for VP though. 

Yep, they both remind me a lot of what Howard Dean was doing for Dems during the Bush administration fiasco. He was a great messenger at the time, especially pushing back against Bush administration lies, even against a backdrop of mainstream media normalizing the ginned-up frenzy around the "Global War on Terror."

 

[Chopper 16666]

9 minutes ago, immamac said:

Buttigieg doesn't have baggage that isn't known and actually matters for credentials getting shit done. 

He's done an incredible job with transportation and it's biggest budget in decades. It cannot be understated how much he's changed so fast and how much he's deployed in a measurable and productive way. 

Yeah working for McKinsey and quitting without going into private equity, running a business into the ground as CEO on behalf of private equity, or some other bullshit job is a plus in my book. I don't know what his favorables with Blacks in South Bend was but it's irrelevant as VP unless he'd make the same mistakes or the same issues are problematic on the national stage. He does a great job as spokesman. That said, of the known choices, I'm team Walz for now.

Edited July 28 by Chopper

[naija 2804]

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

To be fair, for around 90% of the American voting public, cost of living IS the economy and Democrats have to do a better job of connecting to that for middle class people and not treating it as a poverty problem. Speaking of connecting:
 

 

I don't know if this guy will be the pick or not, but this dude is demonstrating connection like Richard Schenck

 

everytime the messaging is about how well the stock market is doing, I wonder if there is a lack of realization of just how many Americans do not actively participate in the stock market and aren't sitting down watching their 401K rise. It's this is what I spent in 2021 to buy bread, this is what I spend now. A difficult needle to thread, but sometimes it comes across as being dismissive of lived experiences 

[Chopper 16666]

3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

This.  Harris wins or loses this on her own.  If she pings black turnout in Atlanta, then it's also there in Philly, Detroit, and Milwaukee.  It's why I think she should pick Kelly, which would help with NV and AZ.  

I suspect Harris wins all of these states and wins fairy easily.  I predict they'll call the election with the polls close on the west coast.

PA's votes won't be tallied on election night because republickans voted to block counting of absentee ballots until after voting. It's part of their win-at-the-fascist-court-level strategy.

[CooterBrown 17760]

This.  Harris wins or loses this on her own.  If she pings black turnout in Atlanta, then it's also there in Philly, Detroit, and Milwaukee.  It's why I think she should pick Kelly, which would help with NV and AZ.  
I suspect Harris wins all of these states and wins fairy easily.  I predict they'll call the election with the polls close on the west coast.

The election won’t be close. I’ll go with 65-35 nationwide. But, no red state will certify results and it’ll go to the House who will elect Trump.

[Surly Bevo 24604]

17 minutes ago, Okie State said:

I'd love to hear Trump's plan to lower grocery prices. I'm sure it's well thought out and full of details.

We are going to have lower grocery prices.  Beautiful grocery prices. There will be so many low grocery prices people will be coming to me begging, "stop, these grocery prices are too low we can't take this any more".

[Firemans4Horn 17223]

1 minute ago, CooterBrown said:

The election won’t be close. I’ll go with 65-35 nationwide. But, no red state will certify results and it’ll go to the House who will elect Trump.

let’s not start this doomsday shit

[Js1 83620]

Just now, Firemans4Horn said:

let’s not start this doomsday shit

Yeah, plus it’s putt’s territory 

[mdmost 42490]

1 minute ago, CooterBrown said:

The election won’t be close. I’ll go with 65-35 nationwide. But, no red state will certify results and it’ll go to the House who will elect Trump.

Then Republicans will get the Civil War they've been seeking. Oh look who is in charge of the military, not the Republicans. 

[Red Five 40449]

1 minute ago, Surly Bevo said:

We are going to have lower grocery prices.  Beautiful grocery prices. There will be so many low grocery prices people will be coming to me begging, "stop, these grocery prices are too low we can't take this any more".

Interviewer: "Great, thanks. Moving on...."

[mdmost 42490]

2 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

We are going to have lower grocery prices.  Beautiful grocery prices. There will be so many low grocery prices people will be coming to me begging, "stop, these grocery prices are too low we can't take this any more".

Grown men, with tears in their eyes, thanking me for lower grocery prices. 

[Hank Kingsley 20147]

"One banana is like what, 10 dollars? This is crazy. We will have 5 dollar bananas, folks. Big, beautiful, very yellow bananas. We make the best bananas here and they're gonna be 5 or 6 bucks". 

[naija 2804]

I'm not sure why I think of Arizona as being almost as crazy and lost as Texas and Florida, culturally.... 

[Bozo_Casanova 25903]

17 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

It's why I think she should pick Kelly, which would help with NV and AZ.  

 

I like Kelly and I like his resume, and he would be an ideal Presidential candidate to match up against a normie Republican like Nikki Haley, but I'd feel safer in this particular election with a VP Nominee who enjoys drawing blood with an audience the way an FFA sponsor enjoys castrating pigs in front of high school kids.

12 minutes ago, naija said:

everytime the messaging is about how well the stock market is doing, I wonder if there is a lack of realization of just how many Americans do not actively participate in the stock market and aren't sitting down watching their 401K rise. It's this is what I spent in 2021 to buy bread, this is what I spend now. A difficult needle to thread, but sometimes it comes across as being dismissive of lived experiences 

great post

Edited July 28 by Bozo_Casanova

[mdmost 42490]

10 minutes ago, naija said:

I'm not sure why I think of Arizona as being almost as crazy and lost as Texas and Florida, culturally.... 

Democratic governor, Democratic senator, thankfully getting rid of the horrible Sinemia and probably getting another Democratic senator. It's more purple than the other 2 by far. Now, demographically has it gotten more red with invading MAGA shitbags? Remains to be seen. Gallego is leading Kari Lake in all of the polls. 

Edited July 28 by mdmost

[Gil Bang 25681]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

He's total POTUS material once (if) we can get the electorate comfortable with a gay man in that office.  I'm not holding my breath, but hey, Obama got elected twice, so you never know.

blacks will vote black, but not gay.

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

As far as the electorate being comfortable with a gay candidate as either part of a presidential ticket- my initial thought is that more people would be comfortable with it if they were a single person that has come out as gay, but do not have a partner with which to hold hands or smooch on tv.  Does Pete have a partner?  It’s obviously completely unfair to ask that of a gay person running for high office, but is that the sacrifice the first openly gay president will have to make?  Or do we hope we (National electorate) can become better than that?

He's married with two children.

[naija 2804]

Just now, mdmost said:

Democratic governor, Democratic senator, thankfully getting rid of the horrible Sinemia and probably getting another Democratic senator. It's more purple than the other 2 by far. Now, demographically has it gotten more red with invading MAGA shitbags? Remains to be seen. 

that's why I said I'm not sure why I think of it that way. Possibly because they generate similar crazy headlines in terms of legislation and "movements," and that skews my perception...

[Chopper 16666]

Important news update:

[Bevo in VA 342]

20 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

We are going to have lower grocery prices.  Beautiful grocery prices. There will be so many low grocery prices people will be coming to me begging, "stop Sir, these grocery prices are too low we can't take this any more".

FIFY

[immamac 41747]

Texas going blue for top of ticket is not out of the realm of possibility with 65%+ turnout and very good turnout in the cities amongst the youth. 

[Texas73 419]

22 minutes ago, mdmost said:

The election won’t be close. I’ll go with 65-35 nationwide.

I'll have what you're smoking.

 

[Bozo_Casanova 25903]

4 minutes ago, immamac said:

Texas going blue for top of ticket is not out of the realm of possibility with 65%+ turnout and very good turnout in the cities amongst the youth. 

THIS IS IT.
You are 100% correct and the only thing standing in the way of that is the institutionalized, multi-decade loserism of the Texas Democratic Party. Can you imagine if the Beto campaign from 2018 was running at this moment instead of Colin Allred's text-messaging campaign for bipartisan whatever and money please?

Texas can absolutely vote blue at a statewide level. All it takes is better organization in mid-size counties, which ... isn't available unless the candidate supplies it. 

Edited July 28 by Bozo_Casanova

[SubliminalHorn 6403]

3 minutes ago, immamac said:

Texas going blue for top of ticket is not out of the realm of possibility with 65%+ turnout and very good turnout in the cities amongst the youth. 

With an infinite number of universes and realities, nothing is out of the realm of possibility. But this universe and this reality? Not gonna hold my breath 

[mdmost 42490]

7 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

I'll have what you're smoking.

 

Well I didn't say that so maybe you are smoking something. 

[Francisco 2.0 32214]

 

 

 

[Js1 83620]

3 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

 

+ 170,000 volunteer signups 

[Pato del Muerto 52114]

If Texas is even a sweat, the election is long over. 

[Sawbonz 26892]

36 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

The election won’t be close. I’ll go with 65-35 nationwide. But, no red state will certify results and it’ll go to the House who will elect Trump.

[Js1 83620]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

If Texas is even a sweat, the election is long over. 

Considering Texas will finish counting well before PA and AZ and NV does, if Texas’ margin is fewer than 5 points, it’s an absolute bloodbath of an election.

I’m talking 319-219 EV and 5%+ popular vote margin. House would be easily won and decent chance Dems flipped TX or FL Senate and held both OH and MT

[Bozo_Casanova 25903]

2 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

With an infinite number of universes and realities, nothing is out of the realm of possibility. But this universe and this reality? Not gonna hold my breath 

R vs D in Texas with turnout Since 2012:
2012 (58%): 57-41 (16)
2016 (59%): 52-43 (9)
2020 (67%): 52-46.5 (5.5)

Does he margin get bigger or smaller this year?

Two takeaways here:
1) Despite the influx of assholes, the diversity of the cities provides the margin difference between presidential years and gubernatorial races
2) Higher turnout in cities would be more than enough to elect a governor
 

[South Austin 51681]

10 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

 

[Pato del Muerto 52114]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Considering Texas will finish counting well before PA and AZ and NV does, if Texas’ margin is fewer than 5 points, it’s an absolute bloodbath of an election.

I’m talking 319-219 EV and 5%+ popular vote margin. House would be easily won and decent chance Dems flipped TX or FL Senate and held both OH and MT

Aren’t there some rural counties that will be counting paper ballots by hand?  They may not make a difference in deciding Texas, but they will take some time to count and report. 

[SubliminalHorn 6403]

4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

R vs D in Texas with turnout Since 2012:
2012 (58%): 57-41 (16)
2016 (59%): 52-43 (9)
2020 (67%): 52-46.5 (5.5)

Does he margin get bigger or smaller this year?

Two takeaways here:
1) Despite the influx of assholes, the diversity of the cities provides the margin difference between presidential years and gubernatorial races
2) Higher turnout in cities would be more than enough to elect a governor
 

Just sayin’, not holding my breath 

[Js1 83620]

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

Aren’t there some rural counties that will be counting paper ballots by hand?  They may not make a difference in deciding Texas, but they will take some time to count and report. 

Sure but we will know based on the big cities and what their results look like compared to 2020

[BrickHorn 18072]

1 hour ago, Chopper said:

Counterpoint: Shapiro doesn't belong in the same tier as Buttigieg. He authorized state paid hush money for a sexual assault by one of his top staffers. He licked the heels of Elise Stefanik. He cracked down on peaceful protests at Penn by actual students of Penn. He's only been gov for 18 months. 

Shapiro seems like he sucks.

[Bozo_Casanova 25903]

7 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Aren’t there some rural counties that will be counting paper ballots by hand?  They may not make a difference in deciding Texas, but they will take some time to count and report. 

It will matter a lot in the event that the election is particularly close in particularly important places (i.e. Wisconsin), but

As it happens:
 

Quote

Hand counting paper ballots is usually conducted in smaller jurisdictions: In 2024, less than 0.2% of registered voters in the U.S. live in election jurisdictions that will hand count their early voting, Election Day, and mail ballots. Many of these jurisdictions are single-precinct municipalities in Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Wisconsin. Some counties in Arkansas, California, Nevada, and South Dakota have recently decided to hand count paper ballots—in some cases alongside machine counts, which remain the official count.

 

That said, I think this election is not going to be especially close, except in Wisconsin. I'm not saying Harris will win, BTW. I'm saying that in most of the seven states that are strategic to their respective campaigns, one candidate will have pulled away by election day at a level below the margin of error in the polls but sufficient to call the election by midnight on the east coast.  

[tx 3 putt 75522]

Georgia is going to be a huge huge problem if it goes blue again this cycle ….

 

[Js1 83620]

Didn’t you make a thread just for that?

[Hank Kingsley 20147]

We need to get Walz on Fox News ASAP. Throw him into the fire. If he handles it well then it’s another data point in his favor. 

[bolverk 29097]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Didn’t you make a thread just for that?

Putt's a repost machine. I don't think he actually reads the content in threads except for whatever is on the most recent page (not even that lots of times).

 

1 hour ago, Chopper said:

Counterpoint: Shapiro doesn't belong in the same tier as Buttigieg. He authorized state paid hush money for a sexual assault by one of his top staffers. He licked the heels of Elise Stefanik. He cracked down on peaceful protests at Penn by actual students of Penn. He's only been gov for 18 months. 

 

14 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Shapiro seems like he sucks.

This was the first I've heard of this allegation, so I just looked it up. The payment wasn't for sexual assault but for sexual harassment by an advisor. Obviously, that's not much better and something that should be condemned. It also clearly doesn't help Shapiro's chances of being selected, especially since he'd be on a ticket going up against a sex criminal.

https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2023/10/pennsylvania-josh-shapiro-mike-vereb-sexual-harassment-settlement-amount/

HARRISBURG — Gov. Josh Shapiro’s office agreed to pay $295,000 to quietly settle a sexual harassment complaint against one of his most trusted advisors, according to records obtained by Spotlight PA through a public records request.

The settlement will be paid using public dollars. It was signed on Sept. 5, more than three weeks before the advisor, Mike Vereb, abruptly resigned from his job as Shapiro’s liaison to the state legislature, prompting Republicans to question the governor’s handling of the matter.

The agreement included a controversial confidentiality clause that bars both sides from discussing the allegations against Vereb. Spotlight PA is not naming the woman who brought the complaint, in which she alleges Vereb made inappropriate, crude, and sexually suggestive comments during her brief stint working for him earlier this year.

[Sawbonz 26892]

20 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Georgia is going to be a huge huge problem if it goes blue again this cycle ….

 

You should take a break from political SM

[Bozo_Casanova 25903]

15 minutes ago, bolverk said:

This was the first I've heard of this allegation, so I just looked it up. The payment wasn't for sexual assault but for sexual harassment by an advisor. Obviously, that's not much better and something that should be condemned. It also clearly doesn't help Shapiro's chances of being selected, especially since he'd be on a ticket going up against a sex criminal.

It's the first time a lot of people have heard it, and it's the third time I've heard it today, which tells me somebody is pushing it.   PA is so important I still like Shapiro more than a Kelly nod, but Shapiro has downsides I wouldn't want unless there was upside to Shapiro that they couldn't get elsewhere. I do think Harris can win PA on her own with Casey on the ballot if she has momentum going into October and a good running mate who can do well in either Wisconsin and Michigan (Walz) or North Carolina and Georgia (Bashear and Cooper). 

[Sawbonz 26892]

You can’t put someone on this ticket who paid hush money and got an NDA signed for a sexual harassment complaint 

 

You just can’t 

[bolverk 29097]

3 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

You can’t put someone on this ticket who paid hush money and got an NDA signed for a sexual harassment complaint 

 

You just can’t 

Agreed. 10-15 years ago before #metoo? Sure, but it'd still be gross. Right now? With these options and that competition? I simply don't see it.