2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Pancho 46549]

50 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Shapiro gets the progressives' panties in a twist if he's the choice. Tactically, he makes so much sense. She has to get PA which isn't a given. 

You’re starting to see a lot of people post online “it doesn’t matter who the pick is, we are voting for Harris—stay focused” or shit like that. I’ve seen it a lot over the last few days.

Walz is the new uncle Joe. You’d have a beer with him, go hunting with him, and he has a daughter that can stay engaged with those on the toks.

[Bozo_Casanova 27025]

13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I think Kelly is safer than Shapiro. 

As Texans, should we not have more disdain for Shapiro's support for school vouchers using taxpayer money? He didn't support it as a legislator and then suddenly flipped on it and started talking about it once he ran for governor. 

maybe a better way of saying it is that he's the obvious choice, because he's popular in Pennsylvania, and it's hard to imagine winning without PA.

And for the record - yes, I don't like the voucher thing but I don't live in PA. My main concern there is that it pisses off the teachers unions. the bigger issue with him is the sexual harassment thing with one of his aides, and the willingness of progressives to stay home plus the risk of alienating Arab-American voters and Lebanese voters in Michigan based on the Palestine thing. 

On the positive side, he possibly helps a LOT in Florida, which has overperformed in 3 elections with a black candidate at the top of the ballot. 

Speaking of representational choices involving Pennsylvania - in the leadup to the 1964 election against McClellan, Lincoln knew that the support of Pennsylvania and Germans in particular was critical to victory, and chose to promote an immigrant Prussian soldier and Pennsylvanian (and incidentally, a communist) named Alexander Schimmelfennig, despite him being scapegoated in the press for heavy losses at Chancelorsville and accused of cowardice at Gettysburg for sort of laying low at a house in town for a couple of days until things quieted down. 

The story goes that  when Secretary of War Stanton protested that Alexander Schimmelfennig was unfit to be a brigadier general, Lincoln responded: “No matter about that, his name will make up for any difference there may be, and I’ll take the risk of his coming out all right.”

Of course, he won Pennsylvania, and Lincoln evidently thought Alexander Schimmelfennig was crucial to continued support, because he was later honored to receive the surrender of Charleston.

[Bozo_Casanova 27025]

14 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Pete and Walz feel like the swing for the fences, I smell blood, picks. Kelly and Beshear are the safe ones. Shapiro is somewhere in between. 

good post. Shapiro has the highest floor and the lowest ceiling.

[mdmost 44337]

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

You’re starting to see a lot of people post online “it doesn’t matter who the luck is, we are voting for Harris—stay focused” or shit like that. I’ve seen it a lot over the last few days.

Walt is the new uncle Joe. You’d have a beer with him, go hunting with him, and he has a daughter that can stay engaged with those on the toks.

Sure but never underestimate the stupid left like chainsaw that will find some way to purity test the pick as a reason that people might not vote for Kamala even though doing so would make absolutely no sense for what they claim to care about. 

Walz would be a home run for me but I'm not sure what else he nets. But he knows how to speak to the Rust Belt. 

[tx ind 7061]

The best will be when Trump shits all over the pick after his VP comment at the NABJ interview.

[Mitch Cumsteen 19007]

They should just trot this bit out at the DNC.

[Aqua Buddha 14820]

1 minute ago, tx ind said:

The best will be when Trump shits all over the pick after his VP comment at the NABJ interview.

“He’s not really Jewish.”

[Brisketexan 107126]

33 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Yeah he's adopted Obama's cadence and accent - you can really hear it when he's giving a speech. Pretty creepy.

 

The cadence is quite similar.  Of course, I've heard more than a few politicians of that generation with that cadence, it's not uncommon.

The accent?  Ummm, they really aren't similar at all.  Shapiro definitely has a NE slant to his accent, Obama's is more neutral.

[jimmyjazz 47456]

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

good post. Shapiro has the highest floor and the lowest ceiling.

I consider you & @Js1 two of the most politically astute posters on surly.  How much would you say the VP choice can move the meter, historically speaking?

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

Not to be weird but I would only go Shapiro if he whispers "cease fire in Israel" every few weeks until the election. 

[NeverMarryAStripper 22436]

9 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Speaking of representational choices involving Pennsylvania - in the leadup to the 1964 election against McClellan, Lincoln knew that the support of Pennsylvania and Germans in particular was critical to victory, and chose to promote an immigrant Prussian soldier and Pennsylvanian (and incidentally, a communist) named Alexander Schimmelfennig, despite him being scapegoated in the press for heavy losses at Chancelorsville and accused of cowardice at Gettysburg for sort of laying low at a house in town for a couple of days until things quieted down. 

[C-Man 27908]

2 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

When you didn't prep for your speech, test or book report the night before:

 

 

Story of that shithead's life

 

2 hours ago, bolverk said:

 

Love the "you goofy fucks" at 2:45

 

2 hours ago, ROFL BOX said:

I will get the links if you want me to do the work, however I am surprised you aren't aware of Trump [after one of the many mass shootings that have occurred... this particular one during his term in office...] saying "Whe we do, what we have to do is take the guns.   We have to take the guns first & then let the courts settle it.  We take the guns."

 

Trump is the ONLY sitting PotIS to have ☆EVER☆ said anything like that.   EVER.  Not any Presidential candidate has said such a thing, even as a non-candidate & it was dug up from an old clip out of Forget-Landia.

But the 🍊🤡 says it & then the Qcumbers go deaf, deaf / dumb / blind 🙉 🙊 🙈.

 

:Edit: @Bozo_Casanova beat me to it.

 

1 hour ago, TexArcher said:

 

God damn, that is one professional, articulate ass whipping right there.

 

Shapiro was my initial knee-jerk choice for VP. I still think he'd be really good but I'm pulling for Walz first.

[Aqua Buddha 14820]

8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The cadence is quite similar.  Of course, I've heard more than a few politicians of that generation with that cadence, it's not uncommon.

The accent?  Ummm, they really aren't similar at all.  Shapiro definitely has a NE slant to his accent, Obama's is more neutral.

They also both speak in complete paragraphs.

[heso 2863]

11 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Sure but never underestimate the stupid left like chainsaw that will find some way to purity test the pick as a reason that people might not vote for Kamala even though doing so would make absolutely no sense for what they claim to care about. 

Walz would be a home run for me but I'm not sure what else he nets. But he knows how to speak to the Rust Belt. 

Hopefully all of the potentials have their calendars cleared so they can all be at the event introducing the pick to voice their support for the ticket to their individual constituents. 

[Js1 87401]

9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I consider you & @Js1 two of the most politically astute posters on surly.  How much would you say the VP choice can move the meter, historically speaking?

The pick can def hurt (Palin and Vance) or just do nothing (Kaine). I wouldn’t say a VP has down much geographically since 1960 anyhow. Mostly you’re just shoring up support among a demo you may not super strong with 

[jimmyjazz 47456]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Mostly you’re just shoring up support among a demo you may not super strong with 

This is what my gut instinct says, but I'm not exactly a scholar in that regard.

[Bozo_Casanova 27025]

19 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I consider you & @Js1 two of the most politically astute posters on surly.  How much would you say the VP choice can move the meter, historically speaking?

Thank you that's very kind. 

There's a lot of work in the political science field on this topic and the easiest way to characterize it is that the VP pick matters, but not in the sense of delivering a discrete result from a place or group. Where it seems to have the greatest effect is in positively or negatively reflecting on the judgment and priorities of the Presidential candidate, in that it's a reflection of what they think is important. 
in other words - of course it helps if your VP is popular in a battleground state and how much is a matter of degree, BUT it's hard to find an example of a VP "delivering" a close or battleground state. Bentsen didn't deliver Texas, Gore didn't deliver (or subsequently win) Tennessee. Biden already had Delaware, but arguably helped a little in PA.
That said - the VP choice says a lot about the presidential candidate. 

• Palin told the world McCain was desperate and would cater to the weirdos in the GOP.
• Biden told older white people that Obama wasn't a revolutionary.
• Cheney told the money guys that Bush was serious about playing ball. 
• Kaine told America that Hillary couldn't handle a strong #2 and thought she had the election in the bag.
• Vance tells coomers with waifu pillows that Donald Trump understands their loneliness. 

So, part of why I give a slight edge to Walz over Shapiro is that while Shapiro is very popular in a crucial state, Walz conveys the desire to return to normalcy - the idea that it's important to laugh off the madness and go do stuff and be nice people. Shapiro is good at the politics of the moment, but nobody loves those, and conveys to Democrats that this is a must win election, but at what cost?
 

Edited August 2 by Bozo_Casanova

[Js1 87401]

Just now, jimmyjazz said:

This is what my gut instinct says, but I'm not exactly a scholar in that regard.

Obama needed to shore up support with WWC voters in the Midwest (sound familiar)

Romney needed to shore up support with the more hardcore base (Ryan)

Kerry needed someone to offset his limousine literalness (Edwards)

Trump needed someone to shore him up with the evangelicals (Pence)

Vance, Palin and Kaine were def WTF. I guess Palin shored up the age issue for McCain - who was OLD at 71 😂

Harris was the youth to offset Biden being OLD and def was a thank you to the black voters that won him the nomination 

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

BUT it's hard to find an example of a VP "delivering" a close or battleground state.

Yeah that why I said no one really has since 1960 (LBJ)

[linux 1787]

27 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Southern Democrat Gov to go with CA Senator is money  

Must have found something on Cooper because that was the homerun hire, NC + GA >>> PA

[Js1 87401]

Just now, linux said:

Must have found something on Cooper because that was the homerun hire, NC + GA >>> PA

Cooper is running for senate in 2026

[Bozo_Casanova 27025]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah that why I said no one really has since 1960 (LBJ)

It helps when you have the power to raise the dead from their graves

[Aqua Buddha 14820]

10 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Thank you that's very kind. 

There's a lot of work in the political science field on this topic and the easiest way to characterize it is that the VP pick matters, but not in the sense of delivering a discrete result from a place or group. Where it seems to have the greatest effect is in positively or negatively reflecting on the judgment and priorities of the Presidential candidate, in that it's a reflection of what they think is important. 
in other words - of course it helps if your VP is popular in a battleground state and how much is a matter of degree, BUT it's hard to find an example of a VP "delivering" a close or battleground state. Bentsen didn't deliver Texas, Gore didn't deliver (or subsequently win) Tennessee. Biden already had Delaware, but arguably helped a little in PA.
That said - the VP choice says a lot about the presidential candidate. 

• Palin told the world McCain was desperate and would cater to the weirdos in the GOP.
• Biden told older white people that Obama wasn't a revolutionary.
• Cheney told the money guys that Bush was serious about playing ball. 
• Kaine told America that Hillary couldn't handle a strong #2 and thought she had the election in the bag.
• Vance tells coomers with waifu pillows that Donald Trump understands their loneliness. 

So, part of why I give a slight edge to Walz over Shapiro is that while Shapiro is very popular in a crucial state, Walz conveys the desire to return to normalcy - the idea that it's important to laugh off the madness and go do stuff and be nice people. Shapiro is good at the politics of the moment, but nobody loves those, and conveys to Democrats that this is a must win election, but at what cost?
 

You could make the case that Harris delivered GA with turnout in Atlanta.

[Brisketexan 107126]

9 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Walz conveys the desire to return to normalcy - the idea that it's important to laugh off the madness and go do stuff and be nice people. Shapiro is good at the politics of the moment, but nobody loves those, and conveys to Democrats that this is a must win election, but at what cost?

I think this is a great, and pretty accurate, contrast.  In the LONG run, the ethos and vibe of Walz is something this country desperately needs.  It's definitely the vibe I want: no-nonsense, basic American values: just be decent, run the government in a way that provides some basic guardrails, provides broad opportunity, etc.  BUT....we have to win the election first, or else that vibe just stays in Minnesota.  It's a tough call.

[linux 1787]

15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The pick can def hurt (Palin and Vance) or just do nothing (Kaine). I wouldn’t say a VP has down much geographically since 1960 anyhow. Mostly you’re just shoring up support among a demo you may not super strong with 

Geographically as in multiple states? Clinton won TN with Gore twice, Gore himself did not win TN

[Bozo_Casanova 27025]

Take with a grain of salt but this is a real journalist. In the thread he speculates that this could backfire if true.

if it is true, I’d lean more towards thinking it’s a weekend trial balloon, since it’s Friday afternoon 

 

Edited August 2 by Bozo_Casanova

[C-Man 27908]

10 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Thank you that's very kind. 

There's a lot of work in the political science field on this topic and the easiest way to characterize it is that the VP pick matters, but not in the sense of delivering a discrete result from a place or group. Where it seems to have the greatest effect is in positively or negatively reflecting on the judgment and priorities of the Presidential candidate, in that it's a reflection of what they think is important. 
in other words - of course it helps if your VP is popular in a battleground state and how much is a matter of degree, BUT it's hard to find an example of a VP "delivering" a close or battleground state. Bentsen didn't deliver Texas, Gore didn't deliver (or subsequently win) Tennessee. Biden already had Delaware, but arguably helped a little in PA.
That said - the VP choice says a lot about the presidential candidate. 

• Palin told the world McCain was desperate and would cater to the weirdos in the GOP.
• Biden told older white people that Obama wasn't a revolutionary.
• Cheney told the money guys that Bush was serious about playing ball. 
• Kaine told America that Hillary couldn't handle a strong #2 and thought she had the election in the bag.
• Vance tells coomers with waifu pillows that Donald Trump understands their loneliness. 

So, part of why I give a slight edge to Walz over Shapiro is that while Shapiro is very popular in a crucial state, Walz conveys the desire to return to normalcy - the idea that it's important to laugh off the madness and go do stuff and be nice people. Shapiro is good at the politics of the moment, but nobody loves those, and conveys to Democrats that this is a must win election, but at what cost?
 

I'm not nearly the student of this that you are but the way I see Walz is that he won't alienate anybody who is already on board with Kamala. His enthusiasm is infectious. His state is a stone-cold lock whether he's part of the national ticket or not but his energy can only help the good times keep rolling. Shapiro is popular in a must-win state. I think he's great on his feet and would absolutely obliterate JD Vance in any head-to-head debate. He was my early first pick. His only potential drag on the ticket would be the Israel-Palestine conflict. I don't think anything is slowing the train at this point but I don't think he brings the energy Walz does. At the end of the day, I think they're both good picks and well ahead of Mark Kelly.

[immamac 44482]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

Take with a grain of salt but this is a real journalist 

 

Not anymore it's not. 

[TexasEd 8276]

17 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Trump: She’s not even black followed by she’s a DEI hire

 

Back to fucking back. His brain doesn’t fucking work.

 

 

[Pancho 46549]

I’ve been offline for most of the day so sorry if this has been posted but he’s clearly just throwing shit at the wall to see what sticks. trunp, his campaign, and radical republicans absolutely do not care about disadvantaged populations in America. Not at all.

 

 

[Bozo_Casanova 27025]

 

4 minutes ago, immamac said:

Not anymore it's not. 

This is the video in question 

 

Edited August 2 by Bozo_Casanova

[Hank Kingsley 21877]

 

[Bozo_Casanova 27025]

7 minutes ago, linux said:

Geographically as in multiple states? Clinton won TN with Gore twice, Gore himself did not win TN

I am obviously undergoing cognitive decline 

[Francisco 2.0 32710]

Check must have cleared:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Gil Bang 26314]

42 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

maybe a better way of saying it is that he's the obvious choice, because he's popular in Pennsylvania, and it's hard to imagine winning without PA.

And for the record - yes, I don't like the voucher thing but I don't live in PA. My main concern there is that it pisses off the teachers unions. the bigger issue with him is the sexual harassment thing with one of his aides, and the willingness of progressives to stay home plus the risk of alienating Arab-American voters and Lebanese voters in Michigan based on the Palestine thing. 

On the positive side, he possibly helps a LOT in Florida, which has overperformed in 3 elections with a black candidate at the top of the ballot. 

Speaking of representational choices involving Pennsylvania - in the leadup to the 1964 election against McClellan, Lincoln knew that the support of Pennsylvania and Germans in particular was critical to victory, and chose to promote an immigrant Prussian soldier and Pennsylvanian (and incidentally, a communist) named Alexander Schimmelfennig, despite him being scapegoated in the press for heavy losses at Chancelorsville and accused of cowardice at Gettysburg for sort of laying low at a house in town for a couple of days until things quieted down. 

The story goes that  when Secretary of War Stanton protested that Alexander Schimmelfennig was unfit to be a brigadier general, Lincoln responded: “No matter about that, his name will make up for any difference there may be, and I’ll take the risk of his coming out all right.”

Of course, he won Pennsylvania, and Lincoln evidently thought Alexander Schimmelfennig was crucial to continued support, because he was later honored to receive the surrender of Charleston.

Call me crazy, but I think Harris' husband should wrap up the Jewish vote as well as Shapiro would   

[TexasEd 8276]

 

[Js1 87401]

The PSA guys were talking about the Veepstakes and mentioned that Obama had 3 diff speeches written for each VP he was considering the final weekend and none of them knew who he was picking.  The advance team in Philly doesn't know; Philly is in an important state and it's very close to campaign HQ.  Everyone was told to keep their weekends open for final meetings with Kamala. 

[Aqua Buddha 14820]

4 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Check must have cleared:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

He’s so dumb that he doesn’t know how to grift off the dumbest people alive.

[Francisco 2.0 32710]

Also this:

 

 

 

 

[linux 1787]

I guess this is the last we will ever hear about little piggy, unless he kills someone else, no way he is making money off the grift after today.

[Firemans4Horn 18552]

52 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

good post. Shapiro has the highest floor and the lowest ceiling.

I think Kelly has a lower ceiling. He’s pretty boring and more right wing than Shapiro. Pennsylvania is much more important than Arizona. 

[David Dennison 19593]

25 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

It helps when you have the power to raise the dead from their graves

#Legend

[gmr548 16704]

48 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I consider you & @Js1 two of the most politically astute posters on surly.  How much would you say the VP choice can move the meter, historically speaking?

Historically it's a pass/fail. It's pretty well established that a true plus-VP candidate is very rare, but you can do your campaign real harm with a bad pick. See Palin, Sarah and potentially Vance, JD.

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

18 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

 

Fake...seems to be a lot of these flying around.

[Francisco 2.0 32710]

29 minutes ago, linux said:

Must have found something on Cooper because that was the homerun hire, NC + GA >>> PA

 

Maybe, but Cooper himself put this out:

 

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/presidential/3108575/roy-cooper-claims-concerns-mark-robinson-reason-dropping-vp-race/

 

Quote

Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) said concerns over what Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson would do when Cooper went out of state to campaign served as a reason why he took his name out of the running to be Vice President Kamala Harris‘s running mate.

Cooper, who is term-limited, was widely considered a top contender for the vice presidential slot on the Democratic Party’s ticket, hailing from the Republican-leaning battleground state of North Carolina. He announced earlier this week that he was taking his name out of consideration and offered insight into the decision on Politico’s Playbook Deep Dive podcast.

Quote

“In North Carolina, we have in our constitution — back from the wagon wheel days — a provision that says when the governor leaves the state, the lieutenant governor becomes the acting governor,” Cooper explained, noting that other states also have similar provisions.

He also explained that if he were to leave the state to campaign, it could empower Robinson, who is running for governor in November.

 

Quote

“Mark Robinson, the Republican nominee, is the most extreme statewide candidate in the country right now. I was on a recruiting trip to Japan; he did claim he was acting governor. He did a big proclamation and press conference while I was gone. It was something about support for the state of Israel. It was obviously to make up for all of his antisemitic comments that he’d made, his denial of the Holocaust, that he’d made over the years, but it was a big distraction,” Cooper said.

Cooper said he predicted that if he had been picked as the vice presidential nominee, Robinson would take advantage of the acting governor provision more to boost his own campaign, and it would serve as a “distraction” from the presidential race.

 

 

[Bozo_Casanova 27025]

12 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

Call me crazy, but I think Harris' husband should wrap up the Jewish vote as well as Shapiro would   

undefeated though, so ...

[Red Five 41847]

Isn't Harris doing sit-downs with the VP candidates this weekend? I doubt they gave the go ahead to put together a video like that.

And yeah, I'm sure it accidentally "leaked".

[Hank Kingsley 21877]

Can't Shapiro and Kelly vigorously campaign and help win AZ and PA without being VP? I still don't understand why you have have to pick one of them in order to win either state. 

 

[Chuckie Finster 23114]

I’m a firm believer in the power of good nicknames, and “Baruch Obama” might single-handedly raise Shapiro’s approval by ten points.

[linux 1787]

Just now, Hank Kingsley said:

Can't Shapiro and Kelly vigorously campaign and help win AZ and PA without being VP? I still don't understand why you have have to pick one of them in order to win either state. 

 

They can, but the effort they put in would not be the same, VP despite being more Veep than an important position like Senator has one big big incentive and that is being a hearbeat away from being President and/or having a leg up on the nomination, see Bush I, Gore, Biden, Harris.

[Js1 87401]

2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Can't Shapiro and Kelly vigorously campaign and help win AZ and PA without being VP? I still don't understand why you have have to pick one of them in order to win either state. 

 

This. Harris needs to pick a governing partner first and foremost.  I truly believe any of them would be an asset in the swing states and the ones not picked are still going to campaign their asses off for her