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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4566

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10 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Not sure this is accurate. SCOWI for example is no longer under GOP

 

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah that one that is wrong. Michigan Supreme Court is also 4-3 Dem and one of the GOP is not running this year 

I was taking all that from ballotpedia.  Looks like their SC data is wonky.

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Js1

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Just now, Snake Diggity said:

 

I was taking all that from ballotpedia.  Looks like their SC data is wonky.

Dems flipped SCOWI in 2023. It was a big deal. Led to fair maps for the state legislature and a post-2024 challenge to the congressional maps. SCOMI flipped in 2020 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13310

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With so many Trump admin officials coming out to say they won’t vote for him, or telling a story from behind the scenes at the Trump WH, I hope Biden can convince them to be filmed for political ads. Biden is never going to convince some GOPers  to vote for him, but a certain percent might be convinced to stay home on Election Day.

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Hornius Emeritus

Hornius Emeritus 12332

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11 hours ago, LurkingHorn said:

Polling issues causing some angst and a potential Biden health scare aside, am I the only one who feels like this isn't going to be particularly close? I don't think Trump can count on all of these people switching to him in the General. Meanwhile, he's out of money and the RNC is out of money to really do much about it. 

The one thing that could upset the apple cart is as black swan event, like a huge terror attack coordinated by people who had come across the border.

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gmr548

gmr548 16312

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21 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

gonna make trump’s broke ass defend fl and tx. lol. 

 

20 hours ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

 

I guess it sort of makes sense.  Both states are booming, economically, under Biden.

It makes sense because of the former point. Biden has such a ridiculous cash advantage that deploying resources in FL/TX/NC (I was big on Democrats in NC in 2020 and I want to be again with migration trends but the polls look terrible for Biden) and making Trump play defense has as much or more utility as swamping the six Biden swing states *that* much more. Diminishing returns and all that. Not to mention he has so much cash that it's not really a trade off.

12 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Negative Nancy here but I hope that he doesn’t pull a Hillary and try to expand the map before locking up 270 EVs. 

Expanding the map is probably the best way to get to 270 EVs. You make Trump play defense and improve your chances in the swing states you won last time. And if you happen to win TX or FL, election is over.

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Dems flipped SCOWI in 2023. It was a big deal. Led to fair maps for the state legislature and a post-2024 challenge to the congressional maps. SCOMI flipped in 2020 

Yeah I'm pretty optimistic on WI. Democratic base has been consistently engaged there over the past four years and now they have an opportunity to reset the landscape in the state legislature. I cannot fathom an enthusiasm gap with the base there, and we know how the suburbs feel about Trump.

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GopherRock

GopherRock 1762

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3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Dems flipped SCOWI in 2023. It was a big deal. Led to fair maps for the state legislature and a post-2024 challenge to the congressional maps. SCOMI flipped in 2020 

The last time Wisconsin elected a Legislature under fair maps was either 2008 or 2010. 

One big reason why the SCOWI went Democrat last year is because all the students that were in elementary school during the open teacher rebellion of 2011 watched their teachers get boatraced in the years since.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 28824

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7 hours ago, 'stache said:

 

The presidency has become way more of a powerful position (both in reality and by perception) than it used to be, and voters act differently in presidential elections. I too have zero trust that traditionally republican voters who say they hate trump will stay home or vote against him. First, the fact that they are still staunchly republican means they have some love of cruelty and dislike for "others" and I feel are overstating their dislike of trump. The numbers are still astonishing to me that a vile hateful incompetent criminal of a human is the overwhelming choice of a major political party. That alone is alarming.

But more importantly, I just see way too many wedge issues prevail on the right. These people, even if they truly do not like trump, will almost certainly fall for the wedge issue of the day. Trump may be a bad guy, but the other side are socialists/baby killers/queer lovers/facists (because covid restrictions)/traitors (because of all these Mexicans). It's gonna happen. I also don't trust that the youths will save us. It was supposed to start happening at least a decade ago and yet we got the most despicable person ever elected (even missteps by Clinton should not have made it even close). And we're already seeing that young liberals are demanding idealogical purity (Gaza being a massive hotbutton for them), and others (males in particular) are falling for the incel "fuck everyone" mindset at way too high a clip. 

I do still think that Biden will win, but it won't be by much more than 2020, and we're guaranteed that the orange baby will act out again as will his worshipers. 

there's a large group of americans who have identified as (r) for a long time, probably because their parents were, and have been so turned off by politics (ironically, because of people like trump), that they are purposely disinterested and disengaged.  so when they vote (r), they don't even have to hold their nose.  they purposely don't follow it, they don't talk politics with their friends, they distract themselves with family, kids, reality tv, whatever, and haven't paid attention in 10-15+ years.

there's no possible way 75mm people know what trump is all about and are like, cool, i'll pick him.  no fucking way.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2241

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12 hours ago, LurkingHorn said:

Polling issues causing some angst and a potential Biden health scare aside, am I the only one who feels like this isn't going to be particularly close? I don't think Trump can count on all of these people switching to him in the General. Meanwhile, he's out of money and the RNC is out of money to really do much about it. 

I feel the same way.  At this point, we just need the calendar to get shorter / election get closer without anything crazy happening that is negative for the dems. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89015

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Trump really needs Truth Social to succeed, but it also can’t survive without him.

But as the RNC and his campaign hurt for money more and more, I wonder if he’ll get back on Twitter to get more of a reach for no cost (other than Truth Social’s value).

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45151

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1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

there's no possible way 75mm people know what trump is all about and are like, cool, i'll pick him.  no fucking way.

I’m pretty sure it is possible my dude. A ton of people in this country are fucking awful people. I didn’t believe it until 2020 when he GAINED votes. 

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pyrohornIII

pyrohornIII 4770

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On 3/19/2024 at 8:06 PM, WhatTheBuck said:

I got my provisional voter at 7:28 pm with 2 minutes to spare! Last voter of the night.

He cast a Republican ballot which I was counting on. You see, I had accidentally grabbed a Republican ballot for the second 17-year-old girl but caught my mistake before she could mark it up and I gave her the correct ballot. But I had already marked a big “X” in the corner of the ballot which makes them unreadable by the machine counter. I was holding on to it in hopes of a provisional voter using it so I wouldn’t have to mark it as a spoiled ballot and document my error.

My partner at the table was really gung-ho to start packing things away early and I kept saying we should keep things in place to process a voter up to the last minute. You never know, that R provisional voter could still show up. The polls are open until 7:30 means the polls are open until 7:30. But she just kept tearing shit down.  So when I heard him walk up and announce to the roster judge that he needed to cast a provisional ballot I had to scramble to retrieve the necessary materials she had rushed to pack away. (He was registered but still had an out-of-state ID. I informed him he has 4 days to present a valid Ohio ID at the Board of Elections in order for his vote to count.)  And then I had to call several times for her to get her ass back to the table and double check his ballot envelope. Ugh. I like everyone else I work with at that polling location but she just grates on my nerves. She doesn’t really understand the process and everything she does on her own, thinking she’s helping, is just a nuisance that slows things down.

Sorry, just had to vent. But everything came out seamlessly and I was vindicated for trying to keep the store open until closing time. We can break down a lot of shit in the final 30 minutes but a certain minimum set of accoutrements need to be present in order to process a voter even up to the last minute. If I’m stuck with her again in November then I’ll remind her of tonight’s ordeal. Yes, I know it feels like no one else is going to come, but as long as the polls are open we have to be prepared for the possibility.

Today was really slow. November is probably going to be insane. 

Mad respect for you being an election worker.  A thankless job made harder by the idiots passing laws to make it harder to vote, not easier.

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Pancho

Pancho 42840

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6 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

poll after poll say its going to be close at best. we live in a world where the very worst person on planet earth would start with 150 EVs just because of the D and R.  this cheering circle we have here is a little too effective for our own good.

Polls are a lot like the debates—unnecessary and out of date considering how society has progressed with technology.

The problem is these polls give way for trump to scream “FRAUD” if he loses because 40% if our country can’t understand why most polls are flawed considering how they are conducted. 

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19445

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1 hour ago, Underdog said:

One person he can’t free is Ashli Babbitt, aka Dead Traitor! 

Ashli can still be resurrected if Mike Pence has the courage to pray right.  And hide the eggs

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gmr548

gmr548 16312

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9 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

there's a large group of americans who have identified as (r) for a long time, probably because their parents were, and have been so turned off by politics (ironically, because of people like trump), that they are purposely disinterested and disengaged.  so when they vote (r), they don't even have to hold their nose.  they purposely don't follow it, they don't talk politics with their friends, they distract themselves with family, kids, reality tv, whatever, and haven't paid attention in 10-15+ years.

there's no possible way 75mm people know what trump is all about and are like, cool, i'll pick him.  no fucking way.

Trump got like 75MM votes in 2020 and probably isn't going to shed a ton of support.

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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28613

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6 hours ago, pyrohornIII said:

Mad respect for you being an election worker.  A thankless job made harder by the idiots passing laws to make it harder to vote, not easier.

Thanks! I first volunteered for the special election last year when the Ohio GOP decided to hold an August election that they had just banned several months before. They were trying to sneak through a referendum to make it harder to amend the constitution, specifically to foil an amendment enshrining abortion rights that was on the ballot in November. They were having a hard time finding volunteers during the summer so I figured volunteering was one way to fight back. It’s a long day. We have to arrive at 5:30 am and don’t get out until about 8:00 pm but I’ve found that it’s pretty rewarding.

There are always some voters who make a point of thanking us for our efforts and that’s nice to hear. It feels good to be part of the process. More people should consider giving it a try. If it weren’t for Republican skulduggery, I never would’ve thought about it. 

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 30850

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18 hours ago, chainsaw said:

I think of it as a reverse Mao policy. (In China, the government says that the praise to criticism ratio for Mao should be 70:30). I think Reagan was 70 percent demon (terrible on the environment, destroyed the mental health system, deregulated and cut taxes to favor the wealthy, was probably the worst president ever for unions and labor, appointed Scalia, Nancy's "Just Say No" bullshit and the "war on drugs", he destabilized Central America, and he was behind the Iran-Contra scandal, he also supported a federal ban on abortion), 30 percent decent (immigration amnesty, seemed to be a public servant rather than a grifter).

Honestly 30:70 is the wrong ratio for Reagan. Probably closer to 10:90, if that.

Point of order, the destruction of the mental health system, which mostly occurred at the state level, was well underway long before Reagan. And it is as much the fault of civil libertarians, ie libruls, as fiscal conservatives. 

He gets a bad rap on that. 

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BamaATL

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17 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Point of order, the destruction of the mental health system, which mostly occurred at the state level, was well underway long before Reagan. And it is as much the fault of civil libertarians, ie libruls, as fiscal conservatives. 

He gets a bad rap on that. 

Bullshit.  Right now we have a neighbor dealing with an adult daughter with tremendous mental difficulty and there is literally no where for her to go.  Specifically blaming Reagan may not be entirely right, but he and his ilk, and their cost cutting no government services platform are to blame for this sort of thing.  He was the ring leader of this movement that found power and his doctrines have guided us to where we are today. Trickle down economics and tax cuts for the rich have a direct correlation with the suspension of government services, like mental health.  He doesn't get a bad rap, if anything he gets far more of a pass from most Americans.  Fuck him, and fuck that movement.  

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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32175

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From this morning's Politico newsletter email.  Lots of this are probably known to many of you, but seeing it all lined up all neat and tidy...well, it just warms your heart on this fine March morning:

 

Spoiler

TRUMP’S MONEY PROBLEMS, PART I — The big takeaway from last night’s FEC deadline? JOE BIDEN has a major fundraising advantage over DONALD TRUMP.

In February:

  • Biden’s campaign raised $21.3 million. Cash on hand: $71 million.
  • Trump’s campaign raised $10.9 million. Cash on hand: $33.5 million.
  • The Democratic National Committee raised $16.6 million. Cash on hand: $26.5 million.
  • The Republican National Committee raised $10.7 million. Cash on hand: $11.3 million.

For those of you who aren’t math majors, the combined sums of Biden and the DNC more than doubled the combined sums of Trump and the RNC. (Those totals don’t include either side’s joint fundraising committees or super PACs.) More from Elena Schneider, Jessica Piper And Zach Montellaro

TRUMP’S MONEY PROBLEMS, PART II — Trump’s leadership PAC, Save America, spent another $5.6 million on legal expenses in February, and was “kept afloat” by a $5 million refund from MAGA Inc., a pro-Trump super PAC, Jessica Piper, Natalie Allison and Zach Montellaro write. MAGA Inc. “has now sent more than $50 million to Save America since last year to help cover Trump’s many legal costs,” and there are serious doubts about how much longer it can afford to do that.

TRUMP’S MONEY PROBLEMS, PART III — The RNC raised $10.6 million last month, a total that is “unlikely to help the party cut into Democrats’ massive fundraising advantage heading into the general election campaign,” our colleagues Natalie Allison and Jessica Piper report. (It has $11.3 million cash on hand — less than the $11.5 million NIKKI HALEY’s now-defunct campaign had in the bank at the end of February.)

TRUMP’S MONEY PROBLEMS, PART IV — “As Donald Trump faces dwindling options to pay off a massive fine imposed as a result of losing a fraud case in New York, financial experts say filing for bankruptcy would provide one clear way out of his financial jam. But Trump is not considering that approach, partially out of concern that it could damage his campaign,” WaPo’s Jonathan O'Connell and Josh Dawsey report.

 

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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 5832

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Pancho said:

Polls are a lot like the debates—unnecessary and out of date considering how society has progressed with technology.

The problem is these polls give way for trump to scream “FRAUD” if he loses because 40% if our country can’t understand why most polls are flawed considering how they are conducted. 

Counterpoint--Trump pointed to how the polls all favored Hillary when he won, and how wrong and out of touch they were.  But yeah, he'll now use the polls to scream "FRAUD," because it's all he's got.    

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WhatTheBuck

WhatTheBuck 28613

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25 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Bullshit.  Right now we have a neighbor dealing with an adult daughter with tremendous mental difficulty and there is literally no where for her to go.  Specifically blaming Reagan may not be entirely right, but he and his ilk, and their cost cutting no government services platform are to blame for this sort of thing.  He was the ring leader of this movement that found power and his doctrines have guided us to where we are today. Trickle down economics and tax cuts for the rich have a direct correlation with the suspension of government services, like mental health.  He doesn't get a bad rap, if anything he gets far more of a pass from most Americans.  Fuck him, and fuck that movement.  

Fuckin’ A right, man. ‘Reagan wasn’t as bad as he’s cracked up to be’ is never going to fly. No, he was much worse than the mythology would have you believe. I know, I fell for the illusion at the time. But the results are in. Fuck him and fuck Grover Norquist for perpetuating the myth. 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47471

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

From this morning's Politico newsletter email.  Lots of this are probably known to many of you, but seeing it all lined up all neat and tidy...well, it just warms your heart on this fine March morning:

 

  Hide contents

TRUMP’S MONEY PROBLEMS, PART I — The big takeaway from last night’s FEC deadline? JOE BIDEN has a major fundraising advantage over DONALD TRUMP.

In February:

  • Biden’s campaign raised $21.3 million. Cash on hand: $71 million.
  • Trump’s campaign raised $10.9 million. Cash on hand: $33.5 million.
  • The Democratic National Committee raised $16.6 million. Cash on hand: $26.5 million.
  • The Republican National Committee raised $10.7 million. Cash on hand: $11.3 million.

For those of you who aren’t math majors, the combined sums of Biden and the DNC more than doubled the combined sums of Trump and the RNC. (Those totals don’t include either side’s joint fundraising committees or super PACs.) More from Elena Schneider, Jessica Piper And Zach Montellaro

TRUMP’S MONEY PROBLEMS, PART II — Trump’s leadership PAC, Save America, spent another $5.6 million on legal expenses in February, and was “kept afloat” by a $5 million refund from MAGA Inc., a pro-Trump super PAC, Jessica Piper, Natalie Allison and Zach Montellaro write. MAGA Inc. “has now sent more than $50 million to Save America since last year to help cover Trump’s many legal costs,” and there are serious doubts about how much longer it can afford to do that.

TRUMP’S MONEY PROBLEMS, PART III — The RNC raised $10.6 million last month, a total that is “unlikely to help the party cut into Democrats’ massive fundraising advantage heading into the general election campaign,” our colleagues Natalie Allison and Jessica Piper report. (It has $11.3 million cash on hand — less than the $11.5 million NIKKI HALEY’s now-defunct campaign had in the bank at the end of February.)

TRUMP’S MONEY PROBLEMS, PART IV — “As Donald Trump faces dwindling options to pay off a massive fine imposed as a result of losing a fraud case in New York, financial experts say filing for bankruptcy would provide one clear way out of his financial jam. But Trump is not considering that approach, partially out of concern that it could damage his campaign,” WaPo’s Jonathan O'Connell and Josh Dawsey report.

 

He is so fucking stupid. He's literally said before, that declaring bankruptcy is smart. And he wasn't wrong. He's literally used the defense before of his bankruptcies being smart. He could do it again now, and point out it was necessary becuase of the "political witch-hunt" and blah blah blah, and all his voters would believe him. They'd sympathize with him. Fuck, they'd love him more. But he won't do it because of his fucking ego. 

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11536

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Just now, SydneyCarton said:

He is so fucking stupid. He's literally said before, that declaring bankruptcy is smart. And he wasn't wrong. He's literally used the defence before of his bankruptcies being smart. He could do it again now, and point out it was necessary becuase of the "political witch-hunt" and blah blah blah, and all his voters would believe him. They'd sympathize with him. Fuck, they'd love him more. But he won't do it because of his fucking ego. 

this stuff has made me rethink his post-election behavior.  before i was more focused on him wanting to hold on to power.  now the portion attributable to just having to avoid acknowledging he took an L on something seems bigger.  

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52094

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6 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

this stuff has made me rethink his post-election behavior.  before i was more focused on him wanting to hold on to power.  now the portion attributable to just having to avoid acknowledging he took an L on something seems bigger.  

I’d say one big clue that it’s about not being able to accept defeat is the idea that he’s floated that he probably actually won all 50 states if all the rigging could be accurately accounted for.  It’s not enough for him to have won the overall election- he is compelled to need to have won each state election. 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 25874

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2 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Right now we have a neighbor dealing with an adult daughter with tremendous mental difficulty and there is literally no where for her to go. 

I’ve been through this, except with a parent, and I wouldn’t wish it on anyone. 

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