2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[atomheartbevo 90702]

2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Man, I have historically been pretty unenthused and continue to hold mixed feelings about the prospect of a Kamala Harris presidency.

For all of the bullshit we see online and from places like Fox News, just remember - a lot of Musk's incels on twitter don't vote, and for all of Fox News bullshit, out of 155 million or so voters in the US, there's less than 4 million people who regularly tune into Fox News in the evening (and even then some of those might be double-counted).

3-4 million Fox News viewers are still a lot of people, but they really are a small portion of the overall population, and social media amplifies a lot of these groups who would not have been this loud in the past.  There are lots of Republicans who have no idea whether Vance fucked a couch or not, or even that it was trending, or that saw Trump at the NABJ conference - there's a shitload of people on both sides who just don't pay attention to politics at all, outside of catching the occasional 30-second soundbite while at somebody else's house or waiting on a car to be serviced or whatever and watching a TV in the the waiting room.

That's not to say they won't show up and vote and pull that lever for (R), but a whole lot of Americans just don't bother tuning in until right before the elections.  Hell, if you can hit up some of those folks with the weird shit, like Vance always wearing eyeliner or the couch stuff or Trump saying some batshit stuff about batteries in boats, you might cause them to tune out of politics.

 

[Hank_Hill 20117]

Pimphand would have to leave his lead lined basement to vote so I’m not worried about his 

[TexPx 2338]

Not just a blue Texas at the presidential level, but a monstrous blue wave that would transform Texas politics overnight. Allred would win. The Texas House would flip. I don't know what Texas Senate seats are up this year but Democrats would make major gains and potentially flip it if the right seats are up. Three Dems on the SCOTX. Local level government and judicial sweeps across the metro counties that hold 70% of the state population.
I assume you don't realize how red Montgomery County is. Suffice to say, that isn't going to happen. Deepest red/largest margin Republican county in the country. GOP losing there would be like aggy losing an online poll (there is, uh, a lot of voter overlap there). A world where Montgomery County flips is a complete implosion of the Texas GOP.
The aggregate Collin/Denton county vote is a decent bellwether for the state though.

This newsletter has good info about demographic and voting trends in Collin/Denton and other big Tx counties.

“Like much of Texas, Collin County is only getting bluer with time. Collin County only needs to secure three higher points this year than they did in 2020 to flip. Considering every presidential election (except for 2012), they’ve gained more than three points (over eight in 2020), it’s easy to see their path to victory.

Moreover, in 2020, it had one of the highest voter turnout rates in Texas, at 75.67%.”

https://www.lonestarleft.com/p/how-important-is-collin-county-in

[Js1 87333]

Oh look, Japan's stock market having it's best day since 2008.  Shocker, the internet overreacted? 

[Chuckie Finster 23113]

Oh look, Japan's stock market having it's best day since 2008.  Shocker, the internet overreacted? 

According to Republicans…

[bolverk 30390]

A quick comparison of these maps gives us a rough idea of how far we must go to flip Texas.

These seven counties represent a tiny bit over half of Texas's population: Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Tarrant, Travis, Collin, and Denton. Texas would flip if turn-out were equal across every county and every voter in each county voted according to its color.

 

Of course, it doesn't work that way because the vote in Texas's rural counties is so lopsided that it's common to see 80% Republican vs. 20% Democratic, whereas the largest counties are in the 55-75% range for Democrats (plus Collin and Denton haven't flipped yet).

Below is the 2020 presidential race. The blue counties are where Biden got over 50%. The lavender ones are where Biden got the plurality (more than Trump but a smidgeon less than 50%).

 

It goes without saying, but the Democrats need to solidify their gains in Tarrant and Williamson counties and continue to chip away votes in Collin and Denton counties. My gut tells me Tarrant will continue to be tight because the northeastern part of that county is like ground zero for a lot of the worst of MAGA. On the other hand, I do want to believe that Collin is gettable with the population surge it's experienced in the last few years from a very racially and ethnically diverse population: lots of new East and South Asians. I don't know about Denton. It's getting closer, plus it has a large college student population, but I feel that it probably needs another election cycle or two.

Then, there's the problem of eroding support among Hispanics in South Texas, where they've been trending more Republican. I think part of that in 2020 can be attributed to an increase in oil and gas jobs, especially in the upper parts of the Valley, and the fear-mongering Republicans do to tell that industry's workers the Democrats are coming for their jobs. There are also the likely contributing factors of folks wanting to pull the ladder up behind them as it relates to border issues, along with some machismo support for Trump and traditional Catholic opposition to abortion.

Democrats have to figure out a message that can blunt those concerns/issues in South Texas. Maybe after four years of Biden, the O&G guys aren't so fearful of their jobs being taken away. Maybe Trump's bullshit he-man act has worn off. Maybe people are questioning the more draconian effects of losing their right to choose. Maybe I don't know what the hell I'm talking about, and they're getting more dug in on those issues. I just don't know.

I'll end with one final map. This one shows where TWO-THIRDS of Texas's population lives. Win these, and Texas will be blue for the foreseeable future. As others have said, Montgomery is a fool's errand. Brazoria likely is, too, but Bell County is closer than most realize.

 

The path is clear but not easy:

• Hold South Texas and the Valley.
• Solidify gains in the booming burbs, especially in North Texas.
• Somehow, offset the votes you'll never get in Montgomery.

Jefferson (Beaumont/Pt. Arthur) and Nueces (Corpus Christi) were close: 49% for Biden in the former and 48% in the latter. A strong labor message to those county's throngs of unionized industrial workers might do the trick, which could also happen to help make gains in Brazoria and Galveston.

If you squint, you can see it.

[Fastbreak 4057]

Now I’ve watched about 80 hours of Olympics across 4 networks. I have still yet to see a Trump ad. Harris has ads at least every hour.

It’s almost like Trump doesn’t have any money. Or maybe more likely, he just pocketed the cash thinking he had the election in the bag….

[immamac 44431]

3 minutes ago, Fastbreak said:

Now I’ve watched about 80 hours of Olympics across 4 networks. I have still yet to see a Trump ad. Harris has ads at least every hour.

It’s almost like Trump doesn’t have any money. Or maybe more likely, he just pocketed the cash thinking he had the election in the bag….

The polls are pretty pretty bad for trump before any of the additional bumps that are coming from VP pick and from DNC. 

They are going to need to figure out something in the next 10 days or pray for a fucking self sabotage disaster from the Democratic ticket. 

[South Austin 53325]

8 minutes ago, Fastbreak said:

Now I’ve watched about 80 hours of Olympics across 4 networks. I have still yet to see a Trump ad. Harris has ads at least every hour.

It’s almost like Trump doesn’t have any money. Or maybe more likely, he just pocketed the cash thinking he had the election in the bag….

I would say he's used most of the RNC funds to pay his mounting legal fees, but it's out of character for Trump to pay his lawyers.

[heso 2863]

Walz! LFG!

Harris picks Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, AP sources say

Edited August 6 by heso

[Pato del Muerto 53629]

Trump is in dire straits and I want my new VP!

[Woland 755]

35 minutes ago, bolverk said:

A quick comparison of these maps gives us a rough idea of how far we must go to flip Texas.

These seven counties represent a tiny bit over half of Texas's population: Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Tarrant, Travis, Collin, and Denton. Texas would flip if turn-out were equal across every county and every voter in each county voted according to its color.

 

Of course, it doesn't work that way because the vote in Texas's rural counties is so lopsided that it's common to see 80% Republican vs. 20% Democratic, whereas the largest counties are in the 55-75% range for Democrats (plus Collin and Denton haven't flipped yet).

Below is the 2020 presidential race. The blue counties are where Biden got over 50%. The lavender ones are where Biden got the plurality (more than Trump but a smidgeon less than 50%).

 

It goes without saying, but the Democrats need to solidify their gains in Tarrant and Williamson counties and continue to chip away votes in Collin and Denton counties. My gut tells me Tarrant will continue to be tight because the northeastern part of that county is like ground zero for a lot of the worst of MAGA. On the other hand, I do want to believe that Collin is gettable with the population surge it's experienced in the last few years from a very racially and ethnically diverse population: lots of new East and South Asians. I don't know about Denton. It's getting closer, plus it has a large college student population, but I feel that it probably needs another election cycle or two.

Then, there's the problem of eroding support among Hispanics in South Texas, where they've been trending more Republican. I think part of that in 2020 can be attributed to an increase in oil and gas jobs, especially in the upper parts of the Valley, and the fear-mongering Republicans do to tell that industry's workers the Democrats are coming for their jobs. There are also the likely contributing factors of folks wanting to pull the ladder up behind them as it relates to border issues, along with some machismo support for Trump and traditional Catholic opposition to abortion.

Democrats have to figure out a message that can blunt those concerns/issues in South Texas. Maybe after four years of Biden, the O&G guys aren't so fearful of their jobs being taken away. Maybe Trump's bullshit he-man act has worn off. Maybe people are questioning the more draconian effects of losing their right to choose. Maybe I don't know what the hell I'm talking about, and they're getting more dug in on those issues. I just don't know.

I'll end with one final map. This one shows where TWO-THIRDS of Texas's population lives. Win these, and Texas will be blue for the foreseeable future. As others have said, Montgomery is a fool's errand. Brazoria likely is, too, but Bell County is closer than most realize.

 

The path is clear but not easy:

• Hold South Texas and the Valley.
• Solidify gains in the booming burbs, especially in North Texas.
• Somehow, offset the votes you'll never get in Montgomery.

Jefferson (Beaumont/Pt. Arthur) and Nueces (Corpus Christi) were close: 49% for Biden in the former and 48% in the latter. A strong labor message to those county's throngs of unionized industrial workers might do the trick, which could also happen to help make gains in Brazoria and Galveston.

If you squint, you can see it.

I live on the Mckinney/Melissa line in north Collin County and my observation is the northern suburbs are are being populated by MAGA transplants. On the positive side, the population is also becoming more diverse so I hope that is a good counter to all the conservative Californians moving in.

[bolverk 30390]

5 minutes ago, Woland said:

I live on the Mckinney/Melissa line in north Collin County and my observation is the northern suburbs are are being populated by MAGA transplants. On the positive side, the population is also becoming more diverse so I hope that is a good counter to all the conservative Californians moving in.

I don't live in either the Houston area or DFW, but I'm hoping to see Collin become like Fort Bend in that the diversity effect tips the scales. I understand conservatives are moving into the northern parts of Collin, but what's going on in Plano and Allen? 

[RomaVicta 30673]

12 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

That's called wishcasting

As president, I promise be focused most of the time.

 

I think Kamabala started as an attempt to mix her name with Obama's. He fucked it up, of course, which may be good for him. I don't think conflating any candidate with Obama would be good for the GOPs.

The other possibility is something to do with NAMBLA. He likely belongs to the heterosexual branch of that noted organization.

[DigglerontheHoof 21565]

6 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I don't live in either the Houston area or DFW, but I'm hoping to see Collin become like Fort Bend in that the diversity effect tips the scales. I understand conservatives are moving into the northern parts of Collin, but what's going on in Plano and Allen? 

I live in southern Collin Co., right on the Rockwall Co. line.  There is more diversity moving into this area (and new neighborhoods are exploding into existance around here)  but a lot of them are Asian and Indian.  I'm not sure that demographic is much more Dem leaning than the conservatives of northern Collin Co.  

[Fastbreak 4057]

Harris has been killing it. Making great moves and doing all the right things. It’s great to see.

[Js1 87333]

3 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

think Kamabala started as an attempt to mix her name with Obama's

I predicted weeks ago he’d do this with Obamala Harris 

[The Dog 44887]

 

[bluto 5000]

6 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

I live in southern Collin Co., right on the Rockwall Co. line.  There is more diversity moving into this area (and new neighborhoods are exploding into existance around here)  but a lot of them are Asian and Indian.  I'm not sure that demographic is much more Dem leaning than the conservatives of northern Collin Co.  

god Rockwall is a cesspool

[HenryJames 67518]

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1314]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

A quick comparison of these maps gives us a rough idea of how far we must go to flip Texas.

These seven counties represent a tiny bit over half of Texas's population: Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Tarrant, Travis, Collin, and Denton. Texas would flip if turn-out were equal across every county and every voter in each county voted according to its color.

 

Of course, it doesn't work that way because the vote in Texas's rural counties is so lopsided that it's common to see 80% Republican vs. 20% Democratic, whereas the largest counties are in the 55-75% range for Democrats (plus Collin and Denton haven't flipped yet).

Below is the 2020 presidential race. The blue counties are where Biden got over 50%. The lavender ones are where Biden got the plurality (more than Trump but a smidgeon less than 50%).

 

It goes without saying, but the Democrats need to solidify their gains in Tarrant and Williamson counties and continue to chip away votes in Collin and Denton counties. My gut tells me Tarrant will continue to be tight because the northeastern part of that county is like ground zero for a lot of the worst of MAGA. On the other hand, I do want to believe that Collin is gettable with the population surge it's experienced in the last few years from a very racially and ethnically diverse population: lots of new East and South Asians. I don't know about Denton. It's getting closer, plus it has a large college student population, but I feel that it probably needs another election cycle or two.

Then, there's the problem of eroding support among Hispanics in South Texas, where they've been trending more Republican. I think part of that in 2020 can be attributed to an increase in oil and gas jobs, especially in the upper parts of the Valley, and the fear-mongering Republicans do to tell that industry's workers the Democrats are coming for their jobs. There are also the likely contributing factors of folks wanting to pull the ladder up behind them as it relates to border issues, along with some machismo support for Trump and traditional Catholic opposition to abortion.

Democrats have to figure out a message that can blunt those concerns/issues in South Texas. Maybe after four years of Biden, the O&G guys aren't so fearful of their jobs being taken away. Maybe Trump's bullshit he-man act has worn off. Maybe people are questioning the more draconian effects of losing their right to choose. Maybe I don't know what the hell I'm talking about, and they're getting more dug in on those issues. I just don't know.

I'll end with one final map. This one shows where TWO-THIRDS of Texas's population lives. Win these, and Texas will be blue for the foreseeable future. As others have said, Montgomery is a fool's errand. Brazoria likely is, too, but Bell County is closer than most realize.

 

The path is clear but not easy:

• Hold South Texas and the Valley.
• Solidify gains in the booming burbs, especially in North Texas.
• Somehow, offset the votes you'll never get in Montgomery.

Jefferson (Beaumont/Pt. Arthur) and Nueces (Corpus Christi) were close: 49% for Biden in the former and 48% in the latter. A strong labor message to those county's throngs of unionized industrial workers might do the trick, which could also happen to help make gains in Brazoria and Galveston.

If you squint, you can see it.

Equal turnout across every county is impossible. People in rural counties can stop by and vote during their lunch break and still have time to eat lunch. People in the blue counties have to wait in line.

[YGIFS 19460]

8 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

Equal turnout across every county is impossible. People in rural counties can stop by and vote during their lunch break and still have time to eat lunch. People in the blue counties have to wait in line.

I’m embarrassed I don’t know this,

but can you vote in person in another country not Your own?  Like in the Metroplex, say you work in North Dallas county…can you hop into Collin or whatever is nearby and vote when you see more polling places with shorter lines?  

[Js1 87333]

Just now, YGIFS said:

I’m embarrassed I don’t know this,

but can you vote in person in another country not Your own?  Like in the Metroplex, say you work in North Dallas county…can you hop into Collin or whatever is nearby and vote when you see more polling places with shorter lines?  

No

[bolverk 30390]

11 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

Equal turnout across every county is impossible. People in rural counties can stop by and vote during their lunch break and still have time to eat lunch. People in the blue counties have to wait in line.

Of course, it's impossible, and that wasn't my main point at all, but it does bring up the other point about how the GQP is doing all it can to make it harder to vote in more populated counties.

[Dahobbs 18437]

35 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I predicted weeks ago he’d do this with Obamala Harris 

No. He saw your post and fucked up the execution. 

[Js1 87333]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

No. He saw your post and fucked up the execution. 

Trump reads my posts and then fucks up the execution? Okay....

I HOPE YOU LIVE FOREVER YOU FAT FUCK

[atomheartbevo 90702]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

The polls are pretty pretty bad for trump before any of the additional bumps that are coming from VP pick and from DNC. 

They are going to need to figure out something in the next 10 days or pray for a fucking self sabotage disaster from the Democratic ticket. 

Because the Democrats seem to have their shit together in a way we haven’t seen since 2008, I’m still concerned they will fuck it up somehow.

With that said, Trump has to ditch Vance, and do it soon.  Putting aside fans of household furniture fornication, Vance is not bringing new people in or getting the base worked up,

[mdmost 44141]

Seems the stock market is back up today so far. Is that the Kamala Crash or the Trump Cash at play?

[Js1 87333]

Just now, mdmost said:

Seems the stock market is back up today so far. Is that the Kamala Crash or the Trump Cash at play?

Yes, the discourse of THE NEXT GREAT DEPRESSION has already disappeared.

[texas08 1599]

Serious question, in which thread will we build a statute for Unc Walz?

 

don’t know where to go and keep up

[atomheartbevo 90702]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Trump is in dire straits and I want my new VP!

Dire Straits you say?

 

[Native Horn 3583]

20 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

I’m embarrassed I don’t know this,

but can you vote in person in another country not Your own?  Like in the Metroplex, say you work in North Dallas county…can you hop into Collin or whatever is nearby and vote when you see more polling places with shorter lines?  

I think that's a hard no.

[atomheartbevo 90702]

Just now, texas08 said:

Serious question, in which thread will we build a statute for Unc Walz?

don’t know where to go and keep up

Don’t know, but Walz is liable to either pitch in and help us build it, or at least bring us refreshments,

[South Austin 53325]

3 minutes ago, texas08 said:

Serious question, in which thread will we build a statute for Unc Walz?

 

don’t know where to go and keep up

We've already commissioned the artist.

[YGIFS 19460]

7 minutes ago, Native Horn said:

I think that's a hard no.

Yeah, meant county. 
 

can we merge the kamala
And walz threads into one now?  A threac about all their campaigning, appearances, interviews, policy proposals,etc?  And have the general presidential election thread be about  them head to head with Trump/Vance and the third party candidates.  Then just one thread about all Trump’s other bullshit-legal, beloved cunt/cult leader, etc.   this is all getting way to cluttered the closer we get to convention/elextion. 

Edited August 6 by YGIFS

[Js1 87333]

Just now, YGIFS said:

Yeah, meant county. 

I mean, technically yes, but you get what is called a "limited ballot" which only has the statewide races, Senate and POTUS on it.  You will get no vote for your local races unless they overlap with the county you're voting in. 

And only during Early Voting.   And usually it's for people who have moved and didn't make the deadline to register in their new county. 

https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/laws/limited-ballot-voters-and-district-chart.shtml

[Tuco 5099]

7 minutes ago, South Austin said:

We've already commissioned the artist.

Best. Thread. Ever.

[Pancho 46438]

[Js1 87333]

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

“What a monster!” Walz quipped on CNN. “Kids are eating and having full bellies so they can go learn and women are making their own healthcare decisions ... So, if that’s where they want to label me, I’m more than happy to take the label.”

[Red Five 41804]

"Embracing policies to allow convicted felons to vote."

Wait, so the Trump team doesn't think Trump should be allowed to vote? Interesting. 

[wildcat09 29609]

I know this wasn't Biden's pick and maybe he didn't even have any input in it at all, but goddamn my hat is off to Biden and Harris over what they've been able to do in the last month. They were underwater, with virtually no enthusiasm from the base and facing down a donor revolt from a bunch of morons with punditbrain who wanted to force a contested convention. And in one month, thanks to great humility from Biden and a better grasp of politics than any fucking centrist dipshit pundits or the triangulation wing of the party will ever have, they've completely flipped the game around. Now the base is energized like we haven't seen since 2008, Harris and her campaign have finally figured out the right way to attack Republicans, and picking Walz shows that she's got better political instincts than the "progressive" Dems from Obama's era.

You don't fucking moderate by triangulating and supporting unpopular Republican policies to try to appear bipartisan. You don't give on your core values to support some shit like school vouchers so you can say you worked across the aisle. It's actually not fucking weird or out there to think people deserve healthcare or that kids deserve to eat. Just fucking believe that and act like you believe it, and make it clear that you're happy to work with Republicans who believe it too but that the many who don't are fucking weirdos who are the ones who actually hurt kids.  

[Pancho 46438]

Just now, Js1 said:

“What a monster!” Walz quipped on CNN. “Kids are eating and having full bellies so they can go learn and women are making their own healthcare decisions ... So, if that’s where they want to label me, I’m more than happy to take the label.”

They have absolutely nothing while also trying convince people of the lie that they are glad it’s not Shapiro.

[The Dog 44887]

Holy shit that's the best they could do?

[27-25 2088]

4 minutes ago, Pancho said:

"...embracing policies to allow convicted felons to vote"

Did Trump's campaign proof read this?

- RedFive beat me to it!

Edited August 6 by 27-25
Giving credit where it's due

[Js1 87333]

Just now, The Dog said:

Holy shit that's the best they could do?

Are you surprised? They still can't nail down a strategy against Harris

[Js1 87333]

1 minute ago, 27-25 said:

"...embracing policies to allow convicted felons to vote"

Did Trump's campaign proof read this?

You can vote if...

• you were charged with or convicted of a misdemeanor or gross misdemeanor.
• you are in jail, but are not currently serving a felony sentence.
• you have been charged with a felony, but you haven’t been convicted.
• you have been given a stay of adjudication.
• you have been convicted of a felony, but are not incarcerated.

You cannot vote if...

• you are currently incarcerated serving a felony sentence.

Wow, such extremism. 

[Red Five 41804]

2 minutes ago, 27-25 said:

"...embracing policies to allow convicted felons to vote"

Did Trump's campaign proof read this?

- RedFive beat me to it!

I hadn't even thought of that angle before. The decision to put that out there is certainly interesting. Oh so he shouldn't be allowed to vote, but he should be allowed to run the country?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Fox News tonight….

 

[yoladu 4197]

 

^^^ i guess the big question is: is America buying/loving this vitriolic, hyperbolic bullshit anymore?

exhausting.

Edited August 6 by yoladu

['stache 22149]

18 minutes ago, South Austin said:

We've already commissioned the artist.

 

10 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Best. Thread. Ever.

That thread is how I found my way to Shaggy/Surly. Still laugh my ass off when it comes up.