2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[cactusflinthead 27,628]

Just now, mchookem said:

i am reminded of the surly genius who remarked 'women use, what, like two or three tampons a day on their period? what's the big deal about the cost?' 

 

I don't know how many and I need a picture to make sure they are the right ones, but I'll get a case of them if that's what it takes.

And chocolate and wine or gummies 

Just stop hollering at me! I didn't do it!

[Thatguy 9,457]

1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

Is it me or do you guys feel that the writers of 2024 are going to throw another curve ball that swings the pendulum back towards Trump and the republicans?! 

IDk. This good news stuff has got me worried. 

To me with all the weird moves Trump is making I think his whole play is just to cry foul on election night and try to destroy the democracy again.

[mchookem 16,805]

1 minute ago, Thatguy said:

To me with all the weird moves Trump is making I think his whole play is just to cry foul on election night and try to destroy the democracy again.

America gonna be like...

[aggie08 21,854]

Trumps biggest (maybe only?) move left is to go even harder to the extremes and court the RFKjr holdouts. Which would be hilarious if there wasn't a decent chance of it working.

[Brisketexan 107,053]

1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

Is it me or do you guys feel that the writers of 2024 are going to throw another curve ball that swings the pendulum back towards Trump and the republicans?! 

IDk. This good news stuff has got me worried. 

 

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

@Brisketexan, please pick up the burnt orange courtesy phone.

Oh, I've got you, fam.  Yes, I remain immensely worried.  Yes, all that matters is 5-8 states, so I don't give a shit if people nationwide have a boner for Harris-Walz or not, and yes, I've seen cascade of bad political outcome after bad political outcome, so I'm damned well expecting some giant turd to fall on us between now and 11/5.  I've got the pessimism front worried, don't you worry about that.

54 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

I give you George Washington and Thomas Jefferson, both non-Christians. and I know you said deists, But their flavor of deist was pointedly non-Christian.

"DEIST?"  More like "DEI-ist," amirite?!  I mean, Jefferson was all in on DEI.  He even had sex with a black woman!  DEI COMMIE!

29 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

So that means about 5% of all U.S. adults will actually take serious Walz's outlook on the Augsburg Confession.  

I mean, to be honest, I thought "the Augsburg Confession" was that thing where I told my wife I'd like to have a threesome with her and German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock, seen here responding to my sales pitch:

[TexasEd 8,271]

On 8/5/2024 at 10:01 AM, jimmyjazz said:

Sure, she has to keep them.  I'm just thinking out loud about how she should target various demographics.  If say 2/3 of the targeted group can't effect change, it's worth considering given somewhat limited resources.

Because of the opportunity to move the House and rebuke fascism she should be after everyone

[Chopper 17,457]

2 minutes ago, mchookem said:

America gonna be like...

Even if. Tim could fix it. Crazy radical.

[Pancho 46,391]

12 minutes ago, Thatguy said:

To me with all the weird moves Trump is making I think his whole play is just to cry foul on election night and try to destroy the democracy again.

That’s exactly his plan because they have radicals on the boards of states and in counties who they are counting on that won’t certify. 

[tbone_ 14,482]

Tampontim is a thing?

What is this, third grade again?

Wait, don’t answer that

That’s exactly his plan because they have radicals on the boards of states and in counties who they are counting on that won’t certify. 

100% this. It’s going to be the shit show of all shit shows.

[locodos 5,594]

53 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

There are 40 "sub-denominations" of Lutheranism.  Including "The Big 3" here in the U.S.  LCMS, WELS, and ELCA.  Having my father's side of my family deeply involved in the Lutheran Church over the past century (my great aunt was the first woman to graduate Harvard Divinity School and went on to become one of the first ordained ministers in the church after the the AALC/Synod shakeup/breakoff.  My paternal grandfather was a Church Elder in the LCMS for decades in both Illinois, North Carolina, and Florida.  There are a number of churches with plaques dedicated to him and his service.  All that to say, to this day, there is a lot of political infighting among Lutherans in the U.S. and Europe, and has been for centuries.  Such is the price you pay for being the first Protestant movement.  First guy through the wall always gets bloodied.  

blah blah blah

 My invisible friend says your invisible friend is stupid and made up!

Trumpkins are going to believe whatever they are told by Trump.  I can't imagine that any meaningful % of supposedly undecided voters will pull the lever based on intradenominational church politics.  So it's a non issue.

His hot dish recipe is more likely to make a difference than this.

Spoiler

Ingredients:
1 package of brats
1 bottle Schell's beer
1 onion
1 teaspoon garlic powder
1 cup of chopped celery
1 can cream of cheddar soup
1 can cream of mushroom soup
1/2 cup milk
1 cups sharp cheddar cheese
1 package tater tots.

Bring a pot of water to a boil, add beer, onions and garlic powder. Submerge the brats into the pot and reduce heat to medium and cook for 10 min. Remove and let cool. Butter the casserole dish. Combine remaining ingredients into a separate bowl, minus the tots. Chop up the brats into bite sized pieces and add to the other ingredients. Pour the mixture into the casserole dish, top with tater tots and bake for 1 hour at 350 degrees. Sprinkle with cheese for the last 10-15 mins of baking.

 

Edited August 6 by locodos

[Js1 87,313]

10 minutes ago, Pancho said:

That’s exactly his plan because they have radicals on the boards of states and in counties who they are counting on that won’t certify. 

I mean, I think 2020 was a shitshow because it was *very fucking close* in several states. 

If Harris wins a bunch of the swing states by 3+ points, I don't think it will be contested that much, compared to Biden-level margins in AZ/NV/GA/MI/PA/WI.  Obviously the goal is a blowout EC win and no swing state is less than 2% margin. 4 states in 2020 were less than 1% margin (AZ, GA, PA, WI)

I think you will see a lot of Dems who runs elections in places like WI, PA, MI, NV, AZ tell those traitors to certify or take them to the state Supreme Court, who will tell them to certify. 

Remember - the state legislatures cannot overrule the will of voters and send Congress their own electors.  It's now against the law.  Congress can only accept electors from the governor, or whoever is deemed in that capacity in state law (i.e., SOS).  Democrats really helped themselves by holding onto pivotal state-level offices in 2022. 

[Mo Horn 8,943]

14 minutes ago, Pancho said:

That’s exactly his plan because they have radicals on the boards of states and in counties who they are counting on that won’t certify. 

Which is a real fear, considering the judges he appointed, not to mention SCOTUS. Any state he doesn't win is going to be one where shenanigans will ensure. I have hope that none of it will matter, but we know what's happened the last few years. This needs to be a landslide. 

[shakahorn 1,660]

2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

No, no Jewish President or Vice President in American history.  

 

Henry Kissinger was probably the GOP’s highest ranking Jew

Actually that would be Kush and Ivanka.

[gmr548 16,704]

13 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

For all of the bullshit we see online and from places like Fox News, just remember - a lot of Musk's incels on twitter don't vote, and for all of Fox News bullshit, out of 155 million or so voters in the US, there's less than 4 million people who regularly tune into Fox News in the evening (and even then some of those might be double-counted).

3-4 million Fox News viewers are still a lot of people, but they really are a small portion of the overall population, and social media amplifies a lot of these groups who would not have been this loud in the past.  There are lots of Republicans who have no idea whether Vance fucked a couch or not, or even that it was trending, or that saw Trump at the NABJ conference - there's a shitload of people on both sides who just don't pay attention to politics at all, outside of catching the occasional 30-second soundbite while at somebody else's house or waiting on a car to be serviced or whatever and watching a TV in the the waiting room.

That's not to say they won't show up and vote and pull that lever for (R), but a whole lot of Americans just don't bother tuning in until right before the elections.  Hell, if you can hit up some of those folks with the weird shit, like Vance always wearing eyeliner or the couch stuff or Trump saying some batshit stuff about batteries in boats, you might cause them to tune out of politics.

 

I don't disagree but I think you either meant to respond to another post or misunderstood mine? I was saying that I, personally, am ambivalent to Harris as a candidate. Of course, that's in a vacuum. I'm 100% voting for her and 99% sure I'll vote for her in 2028 if she wins, because of who she'll be running against.

6 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

Asking the important questions here.

2 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

I'm clearly not part of the majority here but this feels like an unforced error.  While I don't really think VP picks matter, she 100% has to win Pennsylvania to win and instead of picking the very popular governor she went with a guy from a state that was never in doubt.  I think Shapiro would've locked down PA and don't think picking him would've impacted Minnesota or Michigan. It can be framed pretty easily that she didn't pick Shapiro due to him being Jewish (even though that isn't true).  The honeymoon bump is over and now its about to be a race.  

One thing to add re: the bolded; look at where the situation in the Middle East is trending. Having a historically, strongly pro-Israel candidate on the ticket actually could be a problem in Michigan.

[wildcat09 29,601]

10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I mean, I think 2020 was a shitshow because it was *very fucking close* in several states. 

If Harris wins a bunch of the swing states by 3+ points, I don't think it will be contested that much, compared to Biden-level margins in AZ/NV/GA/MI/PA/WI.  Obviously the goal is a blowout EC win and no swing state is less than 2% margin. 4 states in 2020 were less than 1% margin (AZ, GA, PA, WI)

I think you will see a lot of Dems who runs elections in places like WI, PA, MI, NV, AZ tell those traitors to certify or take them to the state Supreme Court, who will tell them to certify. 

Remember - the state legislatures cannot overrule the will of voters and send Congress their own electors.  It's now against the law.  Congress can only accept electors from the governor, or whoever is deemed in that capacity in state law (i.e., SOS).  Democrats really helped themselves by holding onto pivotal state-level offices in 2022. 

The real key in blowing them the fuck out is that it will change the calculus of the Republicans on SCOTUS whether they think they can get away with it or not. If it's close like 2020 in several states and a bunch of county-level GOP officials refuse to certify, SCOTUS will likely make up some pretextual bullshit to intervene.  If they lose by 2+ in those states and it's only close in like North Carolina, the Republicans on SCOTUS will be too scared of what might happen to them if they intervene to try. 

[Js1 87,313]

4 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

The real key in blowing them the fuck out is that it will change the calculus of the Republicans on SCOTUS whether they think they can get away with it or not. If it's close like 2020 in several states and a bunch of county-level GOP officials refuse to certify, SCOTUS will likely make up some pretextual bullshit to intervene.  If they lose by 2+ in those states and it's only close in like North Carolina, the Republicans on SCOTUS will be too scared of what might happen to them if they intervene to try. 

I'm kind of curious if SCOTUS would even intervene - I could def see Thomas/Alito/Gorsuch having a giddy 4 years just fucking up a Harris admin, striking down a bunch of shit and trying to make life hell.    You know they absolutely go home and get their rocks off at whatever Dem agenda item they struck down. 

The whole thing is predicated on Dems keeping 50 senate seats and if Tester or Brown lose, it's probably not going to happen (barring a flip like Murkowski or a surprise win by DMP or Allred) and then none of that SCOTUS ethics reform will pass.  And they'd probably find some pretense to strike it down if it did.  

Edited August 6 by Js1

[TheStoicPaisano 9,954]

HUSSEIN.

 

[Js1 87,313]

Why would a bunch of Dem elected officials crash the DNC? 

[Chuckie Finster 23,112]

Just now, TheStoicPaisano said:

HUSSEIN.

 

wat

[YGIFS 19,458]

that's a lot of plot twists in one post for a guy who supposedly doesn't drink

[mdmost 44,124]

Okay Grandpa. Let's get you back to bed. Oh wait, you shit your pants. We'll need to have the nurse clean that up first. 

[wildcat09 29,601]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I'm kind of curious if SCOTUS would even intervene - I could def see Thomas/Alito/Gorsuch having a giddy 4 years just fucking up a Harris admin, striking down a bunch of shit and trying to make life hell.    You know they absolutely go home and get their rocks off at whatever Dem agenda item they struck down. 

The whole thing is predicated on Dems keeping 50 senate seats and if Tester or Brown lose, it's probably not going to happen (barring a flip like Murkowski or a surprise win by DMP or Allred) and then none of that SCOTUS ethics reform will pass.  And they'd probably find some pretense to strike it down if it did.  

A much saner court stole it in 2000. These assholes all just chose to give Trump total immunity a month ago, expecting he'll be the next President and that he'll finish destroying American democracy. They're going to be all in on that unless they're worried about angry mobs outside their homes.

[6th Street 6,711]

4 minutes ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

HUSSEIN.

 

[Js1 87,313]

Just now, wildcat09 said:

A much saner court stole it in 2000.

Well then we gotta make sure one state doesn't go to a recount that decides the whole thing.  Good thing none of them have Trump's family member as governor, either. Phew.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,486]

5 minutes ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

HUSSEIN.

 

Somebody spike his adderall with LSD today?

[chainsaw 10,313]

10 minutes ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

HUSSEIN.

 

this must be the Bargaining stage

[Red Five 41,795]

Does Dotard know that Biden is still president? None of that makes any sense, shockingly.

[Js1 87,313]

Marist: Harris 51, Trump 48 (+3)

Previous poll: Trump +1 on July 22

[Ted Lange 16,450]

12 minutes ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

HUSSEIN.

 

['stache 22,148]

14 minutes ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

HUSSEIN.

 

I seriously just don't get it, how does this childish nonsubstantive bullshit still appeal to half the country. We need a blowout to make these fucking people disappear.

[Red Five 41,795]

Dotard was up something like 62-38 over Biden when he dropped out.

[Constant 6,941]

16 minutes ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

HUSSEIN.

 

Scared old man hopes yelling helps relieve his pain.

[Js1 87,313]

1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Dotard was up something like 62-38 over Biden when he dropped out.

 

Trump hasn't led in any of the last 14 (15 with Marist) polls posted on 538.   Only has led in something called Activote, a really really bad GOP pollster in McLaughlin, the HarrisX/Harvard one and Big Data Poll.  Definitely not one of the name brands. 

[TexEx15 17,961]

20 minutes ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

HUSSEIN.

 

[Ted Lange 16,450]

5 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Dotard was up something like 62-38 over Biden when he dropped out.

He is still ahead in every other betting line.  But Kamala is catching up fast.

[Hank_Hill 20,112]

23 minutes ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

HUSSEIN.

 

That whole thing is 2 sentences. Jesus Christ he’s an idiot freak.

[Mo Horn 8,943]

He is just flat out fucking nuts. There's no other way to say it. 

[aggie08 21,854]

Trump's strategy is to trick Biden into re-accepting the nomination?

[Red Five 41,795]

Does he think he can dare Biden to get back in the race? Is that what's going through that tiny brain?

[Js1 87,313]

Some swing state polls from Redfield & Wilton (not a great pollster, but data is data) - with change from their last polls

Arizona Harris +1 (was Trump +3)
Florida Trump +6 (was Trump +8)
Georgia Trump +2 (was Trump +5)
Minnesota Harris +5 (was Harris +3)
Michigan Trump +1 (was Trump +3)
Nevada TIE (was Trump +2)
North Carolina Trump +3 (was Trump +3)
Pennsylvania Trump +2 (was Trump +4)
Wisconsin TIE (was a tie last time)

So the trends are very good. 
 

[aggie08 21,854]

I mean, trying to confuse a proud old man isn't the worst idea I can think of I guess. 

[safe sex 12,047]

1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Does he think he can dare Biden to get back in the race? Is that what's going through that tiny brain?

Weird narcissist can't put himself into the frame of reference for any normal person, news at 11

[Js1 87,313]

3 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Trump's strategy is to trick Biden into re-accepting the nomination?

The ratings are gonna be YUGE

Give me back my nomination! 

[Chopper 17,457]

**small donations** are defined as $200 or less

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

His brain is mush 

[SydneyCarton 49,537]

17 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I seriously just don't get it, how does this childish nonsubstantive bullshit still appeal to half the country. We need a blowout to make these fucking people disappear.

Becuase a massive chunk of America doesn't see this unhinged lunacy. 

[Js1 87,313]

Minnesota had the highest turnout in 2020 - almost 80%

Walz effect? 

[Beantown Express 2.0 6,598]

16 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Some swing state polls from Redfield & Wilton (not a great pollster, but data is data) - with change from their last polls

Arizona Harris +1 (was Trump +3)
Florida Trump +6 (was Trump +8)
Georgia Trump +2 (was Trump +5)
Minnesota Harris +5 (was Harris +3)
Michigan Trump +1 (was Trump +3)
Nevada TIE (was Trump +2)
North Carolina Trump +3 (was Trump +3)
Pennsylvania Trump +2 (was Trump +4)
Wisconsin TIE (was a tie last time)

So the trends are very good. 
 

I find it hard to believe that PA was ever +4 for Trump.  I am guessing all of these numbers will change as the VP bump hasn't happened yet and then the convention bump should happen in a few weeks.  Most of the polling may show Harris up in all of these states by a point or 2.  The polls don't mean shit anyways as I truly don't think they are capturing the correct data anymore.

 

[bolverk 30,388]

Live stream of the Philly rally. Warm-up acts right now trying to build hype.

 

[Js1 87,313]

Just now, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I find it hard to believe that PA was ever +4 for Trump.  I am guessing all of these numbers will change as the VP bump hasn't happened yet and then the convention bump should happen in a few weeks.  Most of the polling may show Harris up in all of these states by a point or 2.  The polls don't mean shit anyways as I truly don't think they are capturing the correct data anymore.

 

I agree with you.  These last polls were likely taken during the dark days of early to mid July. 

Also state polls tend to lag national polls.