2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Ted Lange 15951]

Today is the first day that the betting odds have flipped to Harris

 

https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president

 

[Js1 84935]

and RCP's own average hasn't included the Marquette poll. 

[Constant 6686]

Does anyone know if she has any events planned in Texas yet? 

[Chopper 17038]

The full-on nutters at the WSJ editorial board, the weirdest and most extreme editorial board of a major US newspaper for many decades, are concerned:

 

 

[Longhorn94 2424]

of course he will. he is a loser. he loses at everything he does. I really have no idea how 70M Americans voted for this idiot. he is absolutely incompetent at everything other than conning gullible people. (and I just answered my own question.)

[Js1 84935]

1 minute ago, Constant said:

Does anyone know if she has any events planned in Texas yet? 

Unless polling shows her competitive here, she needs to live in AZ/NV/MI/WI/PA/GA/NC.  

She can come to Texas to raise money. 

[Blotto 23349]

9 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

Today is the first day that the betting odds have flipped to Harris

 

https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president

 

Hot off the presses

 

Edited August 8 by Blotto

[Brisketexan 104194]

1 minute ago, Longhorn94 said:

of course he will. he is a loser. he loses at everything he does. I really have no idea how 70M Americans voted for this idiot. he is absolutely incompetent at everything other than conning gullible people. (and I just answered my own question.)

Yep.

Our problem isn't Trump and Pee Wee German and the Couch Fucker.  Our problem is 1) the 70 million+ who buy the shittiness they are selling, and 2) the evil fucking oligarchs with unlimited money who fuel that shitfire.  If we're going to make any progress, we have to crush both of those.  We are in an existential fight.  And we need to fight all the way.

[Ghost of LL 15321]

11 hours ago, gmr548 said:

I heard this via some in the weeds election podcast at some point in the last couple months, so no link, but evidently there is some research that indicates that outside of specific circumstances - mainly, holding rallies in competitive/purple areas - there actually isn't much polling/electoral performance impact.

I think there's very little indication that rallies have any effect on polling.  There is an exception for swing-state rallies held during early voting or right before Election Day, with the theory being that you generate excitement about voting for that candidate and remind people to vote.  But that's not really in play in August.

But that's not to say that rallies don't have value.  There are a few good reasons to go ahead with them:

1) They're an organizing tool.  The campaign is going to identify everyone who goes to a rally, because those are your 10/10 certain to vote for that candidate.  So you put them high on your list of calls to make during early voting to make sure they have gone to the polls.  And you contact them to see if they can give money or volunteer.  And for those who aren't registered to vote, you register them right there.  And, let's be real honest about the state of our democracy 2024--you run their contact information and make sure they haven't been scrubbed from the voter rolls.

2) It gives people the sense that there are other people with me who are voting for this person.  That was a huge deal for Trump in 2016.  We've often lamented on this board how all these people who never voted before came out of the woodwork to vote for (of all fucking people) Donald Trump.  And the rallies were a part of that.  People went out to these rallies for a show, and they saw that there were other people like them who agreed with the deplorable thoughts they had.  And that energized them and motivated them to actually vote.  In previous years, they would have rightly assumed that their ideas were noxious, that the Republican candidate would distance himself from them, and that there was no point in voting for a candidate that didn't share their ideas.  They'd still show up in the polling as supporting the Republican candidate, but they wouldn't show up on Election Day.

By the way--this is very much the same function that yard signs and bumper stickers have.  

[Pancho 44004]

5 minutes ago, Constant said:

Does anyone know if she has any events planned in Texas yet? 

No need to unless everyone is missing something. Just keep ads in the state. 

I know Allred doesn’t even want to be seen with her. 

Do what @Js1 said. 

Her internals would show more possibility in Florida before Texas, if anything.

['stache 21725]

3 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

of course he will. he is a loser. he loses at everything he does. I really have no idea how 70M Americans voted for this idiot. he is absolutely incompetent at everything other than conning gullible people. (and I just answered my own question.)

I think too few people actually listen to him or see his truth posts. They should be on billboards in every swing state captioned "Unfit for Office" or something like that, because I think there are lots of people who will just vote republican and don't fully understand how deranged and immature he actually is.

[Js1 84935]

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

I know Allred doesn’t even want to be seen with her. 

 

Keep her far away from Allred, Tester, Brown and DMP.  Tester and Brown need to use their brands to win, and DMP/Allred need to avoid being tied to the national party and use their opponents being unlikeable incumbents.  Too bad Allred sucks at that. 

[SydneyCarton 47808]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Keep her far away from Allred, Tester, Brown and DMP.  Tester and Brown need to use their brands to win, and DMP/Allred need to avoid being tied to the national party and use their opponents being unlikeable incumbents.  Too bad Allred sucks at that. 

FIFY

[Firemans4Horn 17673]

Allred is the Floyd Casey Stadium of candidates. 

[Goredho 17247]

13 hours ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Trump has given up? He's cooked and he knows it.

Having lived through many cycles, never seen the Dem enthusiasm so high. LFG!

 

13 hours ago, mdmost said:

Trying to sue your way back into the White House doesn't work if you get your ass blown out in most of the states. He's also slipping in the polls so he can't pull his bullshit of how "I was winning in the polls, how could I be losing at the ballot box without rigged elections". Kamala and Walz need to bring the pain so he'll drop out like the craven cunt he is. He doesn't want to suffer the indignity of a black....err Indian woman kicking his ass. I think he's so upset that getting shot at didn't hand him the White House. He really thought he was destined to win after that. Then people remembered just how much of a piece of shit he really is. 

Trump really needs that judge in New York to put him in jail in early September. That's his only remaining play to both save face, drop out, or get some sympathy points. 

This is a dangerous time for Trump.  When he's causing chaos and disrupting the federal government, he's a useful idiot to many here and abroad.  If he just becomes a failed politician with no ability to fuck up the federal government, he's far more useful to those same people as a martyr.

[Tuco 5076]

16 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Just talk about what’s in the bipartisan border bill that Trump killed.

13 minutes ago, TexasHooch said:

Yep.   The argument scores points, but the rebuttal effectively nullifies it immediately.

 

Yes, to both of those. She needs a defense and citing that Trump killed a border bill (twice, if you include when he was President) is an excellent defense.  

 

14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yep.  Chainsaw will throw a tantrum, but the polling had everything in that bill very popular with Americans. 

Another way to look at it would be to say that Dems (Kamala voters) are roughly split down the middle on the bill, which is why it's a wedge issue.  And a slight majority opposed making it easier to deport migrants and making it harder to get asylum. 

The other two items which weren't asked:

1. "Continue to build the wall for which funds were previously budgeted".  The bill would have required Biden to continue to build the wall/fence which had previously been budgeted.  That's a pretty big symbolic fuck-you to immigrant advocates. 

2. "Provide legislative protections for DACA Dreamers?" or "Provide a path to citizenship for DACA Dreamers?" - That was a major Democratic goal that was completely ignored in the bill.  That's the thing you trade some of the other shit for.  

[NAVY 6735]

19 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

of course he will. he is a loser. he loses at everything he does. I really have no idea how 70M Americans voted for this idiot. he is absolutely incompetent at everything other than conning gullible people. (and I just answered my own question.)

They love him because deep down they know they’re losers too. 
 

And, of course, fucking weirdos 

[Bozo_Casanova 26122]

1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

What does this mean exactly?

 

1 hour ago, 'stache said:

Seems like I've seen that "she won't answer questions" or something. No idea what they're talking about. They've been kinda busy, lol.

The press, in particular CNN and the NYT, are very pissed off about the fact that she hasn't had a pressed or done a sit down interview since she become the nominee apparent.  And they would have a point, except for a couple things. 
First, the press, in particular CNN and NYT, has very loudly been trying to manifest the end of the Harris honeymoon, and are very actively pushing angles fed to them by the Trump campaign, ie the Very Serious Questions involving Command Sgt Maj. Tim Walz retiring after only 24 years of service.  It's bullshit, and the Harris campaign are telling them to stop trying to make "fetch" happen, because it's not going to happen. 
Second, and much more importantly - the value of a press event or a sit down exclusive interview for politician during a campaign is normally because the press can provide them with a platform to either define themselves or do damage control. But that this moment, Harris and Walz are in command of the news cycle and successfully defining themselves without need of someone else's platform and with no damage to control. 

[SimonBolivar 10858]

13 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Allred is the Floyd Casey Stadium of candidates. 

A key part of my childhood that has been replaced by shiny corporatism?

[wildcat09 29103]

Harris should absolutely continue the Biden policy of no New York Times interviews because fuck them.  She should continue it for the rest of her campaign and for her entire presidency. 

[HenryJames 65792]

[Bozo_Casanova 26122]

1 minute ago, HenryJames said:

You know who else was absolutely great at that? George W Bush.  And the pool reporters treated him very kindly as a result. Good strategy. 

Edited August 8 by Bozo_Casanova

[Js1 84935]

Gaza is dead last among issues with RVs in that Marquette Poll 

Economy - 38
Immigration - 15
Abortion - 10
Medicare/SS - 10
Ensuring fair elections - 10
Health care - 5
Foreign relations - 3
Gaza - 2

It's tied for last with foreign relations for Dems and it's pretty darn low for independents too

Edited August 8 by Js1

[wildcat09 29103]

 

In the spirit of retaking American patriotism from the traitors, I would love to see the campaign embrace this and other pro-Union (both the Union and unions) songs. Let's make the right lose their fucking minds over The Battle Cry of Freedom, The Battle Hymn of the Republic, John Brown's Body, and a dozen Pete Seeger songs.  

[Pato del Muerto 52184]

If expanding the 2020 map is on the table, then do that business in Charlotte, Raleigh, and I guess Miami. 
 

Leave Texas for another time. 

[SydneyCarton 47808]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Gaza is dead last among issues with RVs in that Marquette Poll 

Economy In Gaza - 38
Immigration To and From Gaza - 15
Abortion - 10
Medicare In Gaza - 10
Ensuring fair elections Not in Gaza - 10
Health care In Gaza - 5
Foreign relations with Gaza- 3
Gaza - 2

It's tied for last with foreign relations for Dems and it's pretty darn low for independents too

Fixed it above for how Chainsaw reads that poll.

[BrickHorn 18131]

“Hardly anybody in our party gives a shit about human suffering” is a weird flex. 

[HenryJames 65792]

7 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

 

In the spirit of retaking American patriotism from the traitors, I would love to see the campaign embrace this and other pro-Union (both the Union and unions) songs. Let's make the right lose their fucking minds over The Battle Cry of Freedom, The Battle Hymn of the Republic, John Brown's Body, and a dozen Pete Seeger songs.  

This is very divisive. - Confederate flag wavers

[Js1 84935]

1 minute ago, BrickHorn said:

“Hardly anybody in our party gives a shit about human suffering” is a weird flex. 

I think it's more that people are more concerned for their own economic situation and their own rights. 

[Dahobbs 17314]

2 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

“Hardly anybody in our party gives a shit about human suffering” is a weird flex. 

No. It just means other issues are more important to them. Not sure why that is so hard for certain people to accept. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26122]

5 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

In the spirit of retaking American patriotism from the traitors, I would love to see the campaign embrace this and other pro-Union (both the Union and unions) songs. Let's make the right lose their fucking minds over The Battle Cry of Freedom, The Battle Hymn of the Republic, John Brown's Body, and a dozen Pete Seeger songs. 

I agree, but Bon Iver makes my ears bleed.  I get that he's from Wisconsin so that's great for them, but can we get Tyler Childers or Jason Isbell or Sturgill Simpson out in the rest of the country please?

[SydneyCarton 47808]

2 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

“Hardly anybody in our party gives a shit about human suffering” is a weird flex. 

Did I say I didn't care about Human Suffering? Please, point it out.

Can't do anything about the situation if you don't beat Trump in an election, which you know. 

[Red Five 40571]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

I agree, but Bon Iver makes my ears bleed.  I get that he's from Wisconsin so that's great for them, but can we get Tyler Childers or Jason Isbell or Sturgill Simpson out in the rest of the country please?

I like Bon Iver, but it seems like not exactly who you would want at your rally. "They're all asleep now." 

[SydneyCarton 47808]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

I agree, but Bon Iver makes my ears bleed.  I get that he's from Wisconsin so that's great for them, but can we get Tyler Childers or Jason Isbell or Sturgill Simpson out in the rest of the country please?

Simpson just released a new album. It's pretty good. And the motherfucker is only coming to Texas once for ACL. I'm pissed. 

Isbell was great touring with Zach Bryan, though. That show was the tits. 

[WelfareBuysMyWeed 5365]

2 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

This is very divisive. - Confederate flag wavers

The song was insanely popular among even the confederates, to the point where they tried to steal the song and make it anti-union.

[tx 3 putt 75850]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

100,000 people at a rally? Okay, go book Kyle Field or Neyland and see if you sell out 

he’d fill up Kyle field, those dumb fucks love trump 

[4th&Five 41394]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Simpson just released a new album. It's pretty good. And the motherfucker is only coming to Texas once for ACL. I'm pissed. 

Isbell was great touring with Zach Bryan, though. That show was the tits. 

[wildcat09 29103]

5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I agree, but Bon Iver makes my ears bleed.  I get that he's from Wisconsin so that's great for them, but can we get Tyler Childers or Jason Isbell or Sturgill Simpson out in the rest of the country please?

Agreed. 

[Bullneck 18892]

3 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

That and we can't watch the Olympics without being blasted by Harris ads.  Nothing for Trump.

The media needs to start asking where the money went.

It went into crypto so Trump can access it when he's living in Russia.

[Js1 84935]

3 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

he’d fill up Kyle field, those dumb fucks love trump 

Just like to remind people that Biden won most of the precincts that cover aggy

[tx ind 6950]

8 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I agree, but Bon Iver makes my ears bleed.  I get that he's from Wisconsin so that's great for them, but can we get Tyler Childers or Jason Isbell or Sturgill Simpson out in the rest of the country please?

Wait til Beyonce and Taylor show up in Sept/Oct and blow the doors off.  MAGA heads will explode.

[Js1 84935]

Fabrizio (R) / Impact (D)
Georgia

48-48

[WelfareBuysMyWeed 5365]

Re: Battle cry of Freedom

Here's the superior Burl Ives version:

 

[dcbc 14358]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

She needs to do sit down interviews and press conferences, I guess. 

Like said above, she's been kind of busy getting a campaign off the ground in 17 days, introducing herself to voters and picking a running mate. 

She's doing fine.  She doesn't need to let Donald  and company dictate how she runs for President.

[Js1 84935]

Dem consultant Culvert did a Miami-Dade poll and Harris is winning it by 15.  Biden only won it by 8, while losing the state by 3.5

May not be enough to win FL, but that's a real good recovery in an area Dems have struggled with since Clinton won it by 30

[Gil Bang 25822]

10 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

I'll add to this conversation about war combat. My dad was drafted out of UT law school in '70 to go to Vietnam. Since he had a degree, he was given a desk job in Saigon. Didn't see action on the front lines, but his entire hotel was blown to bits by a VC kid on a bicycle. My dad was down the street when it happened but lost a handful of friends. Later he would get a nasty intestinal bug and had to be med flighted back to the states. He always said he would never complain about that being that the guys on that plane with him were in way worse shape than him. He was always shy about talking about his tour and never wanted people to think of him as a vet since he wasn't in the jungle getting shot at, but he still fucking served and did his duty, and almost died for it. JV Vance can lick my dad's taint. 

You probably should check with your dad on that. 

3 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Reminds me of my grandfather, who grew up poor as fuck in central Texas, and had to hunt for food. He always said the only guns a man needs are a .30-06 and a 20 gauge. He eventually became a .270 guy, but he maintained his convention that owning more than a couple of guns made you weird AF. 

Mine would have said 30-30, but yeah. 

[Aqua Buddha 14450]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Dem consultant Culvert did a Miami-Dade poll and Harris is winning it by 15.  Biden only won it by 8, while losing the state by 3.5

May not be enough to win FL, but that's a real good recovery in an area Dems have struggled with since Clinton won it by 30

Isn't abortion on the ballot in FL?

[Foosters 17684]

58 minutes ago, Chopper said:

The full-on nutters at the WSJ editorial board, the weirdest and most extreme editorial board of a major US newspaper for many decades, are concerned:

 

 

I'm actually somewhat surprised I haven't seen a WSJ editorial criticizing the Biden deal that brought Gershkovich home.

[Js1 84935]

1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Isn't abortion on the ballot in FL?

And weed! 

[tx ind 6950]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Dem consultant Culvert did a Miami-Dade poll and Harris is winning it by 15.  Biden only won it by 8, while losing the state by 3.5

May not be enough to win FL, but that's a real good recovery in an area Dems have struggled with since Clinton won it by 30

I'd suggest Kamala pay for Desantis to go around Florida and stump for Trump to boost those numbers even more.