2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[DaysOff 8212]

yeah guys, maybe today is the day the legacy media start's covering Trump properly lol

NBC Nightly News ended the segment with a CNBC national poll with Trump +2. WTF?

[Thatguy 9371]

33 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This is how you handle children. Stick to the first and then we will talk

And that's why I think we all just need to calm down. Maybe just maybe this lady knows how to anticipate moves because, you know, she is a prosecutor. Her messaging has been on point. Instead of the normal Dem drivel we seem to be on offense. Plus she picked a solid VP. We might just need to let go of the bike handlebars and say our little girl has got it.

 

 

[chainsaw 10298]

3 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

NBC Nightly News ended the segment with a CNBC national poll with Trump +2. WTF?

Rasmussen, highly suspect

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/washington-secrets/3115044/jumbled-polls-show-trump-up-surge-millennials-generation-x/

[Js1 87190]

6 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

NBC Nightly News ended the segment with a CNBC national poll with Trump +2. WTF?

I believe the CNBC poll was “all adults”

Not even registered voters.

I think the IPSOS one was also “all adults” so it’s really generally useless. By August, you should be getting to it likely voter screens ready 

Edited August 8 by Js1

[cmontexas 3373]

One thing I learned from Beto losing to Cruz is that absolutely nothing motivates Republicans to get up and vote more than the sight of hopeful or enthusiastic Dems 

[Thatguy 9371]

8 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Did you think Trump fared better in the debates than Hillary did?

No. But at that point no one knew that he was going to literally break all the rules to debate. He lied seemingly every time he opened his mouth. He talked over her, and was extremely childish. I just think she struggled to get her message across and he was a complete disruption.

[Snake Diggity 4714]

2 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Basically all Kamala has to do is keep her cool. She'll be prepared for all the outrageous things he will say. 

 

I don’t think it’s enough to just keep your cool.  Clinton kept her cool in 2016.  Harris has got to be ready to retaliate against Trump in a way that shows she’s smarter and of higher character than he is.  It sounds easy because Trump is so stupid and such a piece of shit.  But I think it requires a lot of skill to deal with someone as unique as Trump.

Edited August 8 by Snake Diggity

[Chopper 17432]

11 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

NBC Nightly News ended the segment with a CNBC national poll with Trump +2. WTF?

Even with the stuff that others posted about who was polled, the shitty polling outfit, ALL polls within plus or minus 3 are basically 50/50 on accuracy.

[BurntOrange&White 41912]

Fire with fire, you can't be passive vs Trump in debate. 

[atomheartbevo 90656]

4 hours ago, heso said:

Can someone explain internal polling to me? Why is it different than public polling and how is it more/less accurate than typical public polling data?

Public polling can be a lot more generic and cover broad groups.  It’s the phone calls you get wanting a few answers about multiple candidates and public polling is about showing the media where candidates stand.

Internal polling is contracted out by candidates, for the consumption of those individual campaigns (not to be shared with the public or even other politicians from the same party), and it’s about shaping campaign strategies that haven’t necessary been made public.  It can be A/B testing, and it can be very tight focus groups made up of key demographics, and those people maybe asked the same question every month or so to see if a particular candidate’s image or strategy is changing.

And these focus groups are truly focus groups - they have their income levels, family demographics, if their kids are in public or private schools, where they work, how they’ve voted in the past, what sports teams they follow, what tv shows they watch, and so on.

It’s not a “do you like Donald Trump, yes or no or don’t care” it’s “watch this video clip of Donald Trump, okay after watching that do you feel that Donald Trump has provided a clear answer on abortion, and on a scale of 1-10, with 1 being strongly disagree, and 5 being unsure and 10 being strongly agree, how would you rate Donald Trump’s answer in that video clip.”  And then weeks or a month later they are asked to watch another, newer clip of Trump, one that ostensibly incorporates tweaks to his answers, to see how he’s doing.

It can be extremely detailed questions and as I said, they can be asked to the same focus group every month or every few weeks or whatever, with the reasoning being that they are tying to build up a profile of a candidate over time and public opinion of them, and seeing if tweaks to the messaging are having an impact over time.  Veep converted it a bit in some of their episodes, but I don’t remember I’d they did a deep dive, but I think they did.

Trump is a problem though  because they may finely tune the answers he should be giving, but when he starts rambling, all that expensive research is out the window.

And it’s not just questions of focus groups that help with internal polling - I have a friend that works at a data analytics company that feeds info to companies conducting internal polling, and they are contributing information on things like social media engagement, signs in yards (they will pay people to drive around counting signs in  an area), mentions in the media, what is being said on particular shows, etc.  literally something like “hey, we noticed that yard signs for Trump in Bumfuck, Wisconsin are down 52% versus 2020” and “people with Facebook profiles posting from Clitlick, Michigan are publicly talking about Trump 15% less than 2020, and they are talking about Harris 27% more than they did Biden in 2020”

ABC has a little article about it.

https://abcnews.go.com/538/defense-internal-polling/story?id=107003824

It can be extremely accurate, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s more accurate than public polls, it’s just more about shaping campaign strategies before they hit the public view.

Edited August 9 by atomheartbevo

[Bozo_Casanova 26861]

 

11 minutes ago, cmontexas said:

One thing I learned from Beto losing to Cruz is that absolutely nothing motivates Republicans to get up and vote more than the sight of hopeful or enthusiastic Dems 

Beto lost to Cruz because he turned the second half of his campaign into an apology tour, and the rest of the ticket was exceptionally weak, because the TDP is terrible at their job. Beto lost by 2.6. Lupe Valdez (remember her?) lost by 13. 

Edited August 9 by Bozo_Casanova

[safe sex 12023]

[Bozo_Casanova 26861]

4 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Fire with fire, you can't be passive vs Trump in debate. 

attack attack attack

mock, condescend, laugh

[gmr548 16702]

12 minutes ago, cmontexas said:

One thing I learned from Beto losing to Cruz is that absolutely nothing motivates Republicans to get up and vote more than the sight of hopeful or enthusiastic Dems 

2018 is probably not the cycle I'd use to make that case.

[Hank Kingsley 21790]

9 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I don’t think it’s enough to just keep your cool.  Clinton kept her cool in 2016.  Harris has got to be ready to retaliate against Trump in a way that shows she’s smarter and of higher character than he is.  It sounds easy because Trump is so stupid and such a piece of shit.  But I think it requires a lot of skill to deal with someone as unique as Trump.

I definitely think it would be foolish to underestimate Trump. You have to be well prepared for the shit he's gonna throw out. But let's be honest, Hillary was a uniquely hated politician with below average presence on TV.  Then Biden fell flat on his face the minute he walked on stage a month ago. 

This is by far our best prizefighter so far against Trump. 

 

[BurntOrange&White 41912]

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

attack attack attack

mock, condescend, laugh

Bait him as well. Get the sound clips you need. His brain isn't what it was 8 years ago

[WhatTheBuck 28931]

2 hours ago, Covri said:

Hilary did well in the debates, her losing wasn’t a reflection of her debate performance. 

Exactly. According to the polls, most people thought Hillary won the debates. I was surprised anyone could watch Trump’s despicable behavior and come away thinking he was even remotely fit for office. But I guess it’s just a sorry statement about the electorate.

Hillary comes off looking even better in hindsight because all of her predictions about a Trump presidency turned out to be true, starting with him being Putin’s puppet. 

[Pancho 46332]

She can attack, she can’t come off as the ABL though. 

This is where I think her prosecutor skills come into play because she can wrap you up in words and have you stumbling and saying shit you shouldn’t be saying in seconds.

[wildcat09 29592]

Decent chance she gets him to drop a hard R. 

[Gil Bang 26244]

5 hours ago, Red Five said:

"She destroyed California." 

 

5 hours ago, Red Five said:

History books will say that we just didn't know how to handle someone like that. The lies come so fast you can't even fact check them. He does terrible things so quickly that you forget about the last one after its happened. 

It's like watching "Veep", except it's bullshit instead of jokes

3 hours ago, mdmost said:

She just needs to not take the bait. I'd imagine her team is going to coach her over and over using his style of "debating". She'll be ready. She just needs to stay on message and pick her moments to expose his lies. 

is Joe Isuzu available as a debate partner?

2 hours ago, BearSchlong said:

My kid’s job is to make sure Gil’s kid gets a doc if he ever needs it.

Btw I’ll be on post next Friday.

Bring your umbrella. It's raining like a mofo according to reports I received about 30 mins ago.   And he very well need that doc someday.  An Apache went down at Novasel yesterday, killing a flight instructor.  The student will survive.  The flight instructor was, of course, a retired W-3.  I can only imagine that his family was so relieved that he was done flying combat, and was settled into an "easy", well-paying flight-instructor gig.  And he's gone, God Rest his Soul. 

[Red Five 41750]

I learned today that this picture, which has been seen around these parts a few times, is Harris. I had no idea.

[Born to Run 6601]

31 minutes ago, Thatguy said:

No. But at that point no one knew that he was going to literally break all the rules to debate. He lied seemingly every time he opened his mouth. He talked over her, and was extremely childish. I just think she struggled to get her message across and he was a complete disruption.

She was a policy nerd and smug af. Too many words. Same shit Biden tried to pull. You really have to dumb it down vs Trump (and for idiot Americans, and shitty legacy media) and just keep to short brutal responses to his bullshit. "He is lying again; it's all he's good for; over and over."

You can't bring facts to a debate with a toddler about whose the best Pokémon or Sesame Street character.

[BurntOrange&White 41912]

 

[mdmost 44065]

18 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I learned today that this picture, which has been seen around these parts a few times, is Harris. I had no idea.

She's got a Sheena Easton look going. 

Edited August 9 by mdmost

[BrickHorn 18447]

2 hours ago, Royalfan5 said:

On your Nebraska white guy update the guys bit hard on the Walz horse semen story to try and counter the couch fucking, and spent a weirdly long time talking about how much money it would take to get them to drink a glass of horse semen. (Spoiler there was definitely a price they’d happily do it for) 

STOP CALLING US WEIRD!

[Js1 87190]

25 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I learned today that this picture, which has been seen around these parts a few times, is Harris. I had no idea.

[WhatTheBuck 28931]

2 hours ago, Tuco said:

I mean, don't people pretty much do the equivalent on gross-out reality shows for a chance to win money? 

No. It’s fake. 

[Tuco 5094]

14 minutes ago, mdmost said:

She's got a Sheena Easton look going. 

I'm seeing more Naomi.   

[Ted Lange 16424]

ne

 

NEVER STOP GRIFTING 

[ultimaton 2985]

1 hour ago, Tuco said:

And it demonstrates he is not some great negotiator. 

Kamala: Let's debate on ABC.

Donald: No, I'm not sure I am going to debate you. 

Kamala: Chicken

Donald: Instead of debating on ABC, we will now debate on Fox. 

Kamala: No, let's debate on ABC. 

Donald: Ok, let's debate on Fox, ABC, and CBS. 

Kamala: No, let's debate on ABC.

Donald: Ok.

 

[Hefeweizen 5445]

Trump cash?  Brilliant.  Can’t wait for the inevitable collapse.

[Ted Lange 16424]

29 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

 

Elon said

[Brandywine 1330]

3 debates or 1?. Thoughts?

Edited August 9 by Brandywine

[Sawbonz 28229]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

I believe the CNBC poll was “all adults”

['stache 22145]

44 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I learned today that this picture, which has been seen around these parts a few times, is Harris. I had no idea.

Would

 

 

. . . . not fuck with her because she looks like she'd cut me up good like those guys from the Michael Jackson video.

Edited August 9 by 'stache

[Js1 87190]

[WhatTheBuck 28931]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

His handlers can’t walk him off the stage after 30 minutes because he doesn’t like Rachel Scott’s questions. And he won’t have the guts to tell Kamala Harris to her face that he doesn’t think she’s black.

It would be fun to watch her tell him he’s not white, he’s orange. “When did you decide to become orange, Donald?”

[Bozo_Casanova 26861]

47 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I learned today that this picture, which has been seen around these parts a few times, is Harris. I had no idea.

Looks like a chick who blew me off ca. 1990.  Indigo something. 

Edited August 9 by Bozo_Casanova

[Tuco 5094]

5 minutes ago, Brandywine said:

3 debates or 1?. Thoughts?

I'd do just one.  There are other things to focus on and I'm not sure what you really get from three that you can't do in one. 

[HenryJames 67400]

[Goredho 17659]

3 hours ago, Red Five said:

All I’ve got to say is, “Quack!!”

[Pancho 46332]

Just now, HenryJames said:

[Hank Kingsley 21790]

2 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Damn, Sorbo with another checkmate. FUCK. 

 

 

[Pancho 46332]

Scaramoochie - “Walz is the College Gameday candidate”

[Firemans4Horn 18533]

9 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

[WhatTheBuck 28931]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Interesting study. As much as we love weird, pro-Harris messages resonate more with voters. 

 

 

Biden was novel? He’d been in the public eye for 50 years. I think one thing that worked for Biden was that everyone did know him. He was that guy who rode the Amtrak train to work. He was a good, decent fellow prone to verbal gaffes. Trump wasn’t able to make a label stick to him because everyone already knew who he was. Cultists excepted, of course. I don’t know what methodology they used to suggest that anti-Biden messages worked when the fact that he won the election by 8,000,000,000 votes suggests that they didn’t. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

14 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Looks like a chick who blew me off ca. 1990.  Indigo something. 

Uh. I might know why she blew you off. 
 

[Ted Lange 16424]

16 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

[HOOKEM4 5176]

1 hour ago, Red Five said:

I learned today that this picture, which has been seen around these parts a few times, is Harris. I had no idea.

See this photo is from before she became black!!! /trump

Also, WOOD.

[GhostOfTomJoad 9509]

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