2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[HenryJames 65793]

7 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

 

@Katfid54

[cactusflinthead 27586]

 

[cactusflinthead 27586]

Nate Cohn 

One way to think about her position is that she has become something like a “generic” Democrat. This might sound like an insult, but it’s really not. In fact, nothing is more coveted. An unnamed generic candidate — whether it’s a Democrat or a Republican — almost always fares better in the polls than named candidates, who are inevitably burdened by all the imperfections voters learn about in the process of a campaign.

When we polled these three states last October, an unnamed Democrat led Mr. Trump by around 10 points, even as Mr. Trump led Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris by about one point each. The upside of a different, broadly acceptable Democrat was purely hypothetical, of course. There was no guarantee that any real-world Democrat could avoid alienating many of the voters who would prefer to vote for someone other than Mr. Trump. And there was certainly no reason to think Ms. Harris would be such a Democrat, as she was viewed unfavorably by a majority of voters and brought plenty of political baggage from her tenure as vice president and her failed 2020 presidential campaign.

 

[Js1 84935]

It’s so Joever 

[cactusflinthead 27586]

There's a jolt in the coffee this morning. 

[Js1 84935]

On question after question, the poll finds that voters don’t seem to have any major reservations about her. A majority say that she’s honest and intelligent; that she brings the right kind of change and has the temperament to be president; and that she has a clear vision for the country. A majority doesn’t think she’s too far to the left, either: Only 44 percent of likely voters say she’s too liberal or progressive, compared with 44 percent who say she’s not too far either way and another 6 percent who say she isn’t progressive enough. We didn’t need to ask whether voters thought she was too old to be an effective president.

[cactusflinthead 27586]

Keep on rocking in the free world 

[cactusflinthead 27586]

 

[HenryJames 65793]

[G650 13745]

3 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

[Js1 84935]

13 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Message discipline 

[TexArcher 37373]

Fat man big mad.

 

[cactusflinthead 27586]

 

[TexPx 2309]

Think if Taylor drops in as a surprise. 

Idoits don’t know the demographics of Swifties.

“Congratulations! You will get every 12-16 girl excited for nothing”

[Js1 84935]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

It’s so Joever 

The four way polls with RFK and Stein are even better. +6 in WI, PA +3 and MI +6

[TexPx 2309]

Ok.  So probably had the ritzy fundraiser scheduled first.  Flight gets delay, you're way late to the fundraiser, you have a choice, and you chose a handful of rich people over an arena of commoners.  

Hosted by a group of Dental Floss Tycoons.

[Francisco 2.0 32289]

RE: Internal polling?  From the NYT article that was shared by Cactusflinthead:

 

Quote

Others are more concerned about what they are seeing in private polling. Two private polls conducted in Ohio recently by Republican pollsters — which Mr. Trump carried in 2020 with 53 percent of the vote — showed him receiving less than 50 percent of the vote against Ms. Harris in the state, according to a person with direct knowledge of the data.

 

[NAVY 6735]

17 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

It’s way too early on a Saturday for dustiness, right? 

[Js1 84935]

5 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

RE: Internal polling?  From the NYT article that was shared by Cactusflinthead:

 

 

I think it’s pretty obvious their internal polling is ass. He’s lashing out and flailing and looks awful. He knows they lost all momentum 

[DDD Dad 14133]

9 hours ago, Tuco said:

Shit, somebody forgot the drum roll.  It wouldn't have been really funny with a drumroll.  That way people would have noticed it was a joke.  

 

I got you. 
 

[BurntOrange&White 39187]

2 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

Oh it's on now 

 

[SydneyCarton 47808]

48 minutes ago, TexPx said:

Idoits don’t know the demographics of Swifties.

“Congratulations! You will get every 12-16 girl excited for nothing”

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1416130/share-of-us-respondents-who-consider-themselves-taylor-swift-fans-age/#:~:text=Share of U.S. respondents who,fans in 2023%2C by age&text=According to the results of,or older stated the same.

 

This doesn’t include kids who can’t vote, but her biggest chunk of fans are millennials. News flash, they can vote. She’s been performing for almost 20 years. Women who were teenagers when she sang country have literally grown up with her. 

Anecdotal: my wife is 43, my sister in law is 45, and they went to see Taylor together. And my SiL has been signing her to her 7 year old for awhile now. Her fans are introducing their kids to her dude. Did you think her endorsement last election was a big nothing-burger? Then why the fuck is the right so triggered?

Edited August 10 by SydneyCarton

[Francisco 2.0 32289]

Seems legit.   So I'll roll with it.

 

 

 

And here's the wall of text:

 

My BIG TAKEAWAY from Trump's absurd press conference is that he is finally undergoing something called NARCISSISTIC MORTIFICATION. We dusted off this Freudian term back in April during his criminal trial, and it's extra-relevant today.

Narcissistic Mortification is when a narcissist like Trump crosses over to a place where he sees visions of his own demise. A malignant narcissist who once held the loftiest of titles, cannot cope with this. Trump's fears have become "dread." He is very unhinged, yet uncomfortable in the feeling itself, because he knows he's partly responsible. Reality is being forced upon him, that's not of his making. He can't have that! To put it in more psychological terms, narcissistic mortification is EXTREME fear experienced when one with a rigidly grandiose pathology sees his sense of self as exposed, defective or inferior.

It was coined by Freud in his book Moses and Monotheism. It's described there as deep injuries to ego/self, triggered by one's own compulsiveness (unforced errors -- like suggesting Putin would only release prisoners to him which set him up for embarrassment, or choosing Vance as his running mate against his better judgment, which drives him crazy daily, or repeatedly attacking the popular Georgia Governor Kemp against his own interests, because he can't control himself). THIS is where I think he is. He's become his own worst enemy, and this conflicts with his pathology of being unable to admit fault. It's a very severe and very dissonant conflict.

Malignant narcissists need their grandiosity. For them to become exposed and weakened, is narcissistic injury - that happens. BUT - for them to become weakened to the extent of being able to visualize their own demise and know it's partly due to their own frailties - frailties they spend a lifetime avoiding and denying - this is irreconcilable. For a malignant narcissist like Trump, it's hell.

Bringing it back to the press conference, it causes him to become even more sensitized ("that was a stupid question"), to become more easily triggered (especially about "crowd size" - the symbol of his fading grandiosity - which he rambled about excessively), to use even more projection ("America" is failing, "America" is in danger means HE is failing and HE is in danger), and it has made him physically haggard (he looked gaunt and hunched over, with stiffness in his facial muscles), and finally - got disoriented (the Willie Brown/Jerry Brown helicopter story being the most pronounced example from yesterday).

Look for him to be carefully coddled by aides. They may not know the psychological terminology, but they know he's slipping away. Narcissistic mortification is a precursor to narcissistic collapse.

 

Like I mentioned few months ago when I first tweeted about narcissistic mortification, there actually IS a wiki page for it (and yes, I was utterly shocked there WAS a wiki page for it) and here's an interesting sentence from it, that I thought I'd echo here: Narcissistic Mortification is "the primitive terror of self-dissolution, triggered by the sudden exposure of one's sense of a defective self ... it is death by embarrassment."

 

[BrickHorn 18132]

1 hour ago, HenryJames said:

“Jet (helicopter!)”

[Js1 84935]

Chef’s kiss

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/10/us/politics/trump-campaign-election.html?unlocked_article_code=1.B04.pe37.CZ20vRWupYe_&smid=url-share

Highlights:

People around Trump describe him as "knocked off his bearings" by Harris.

Trump refers to Harris as a "bitch" in private.

Trump megadonors are being consumed by infighting over limited funds.

⁠Donors repeatedly asked Trump to remove JD Vance from the ticket, this is now confirmed.

Trump loves what JD has been doing recently and thinks his rally schedule is helping.

Trump's pollsters are now saying that Harris' numbers will probably keep improving through the DNC. They previously predicted only a few weeks of a bump for her at the start of the race.

[immamac 42338]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Chef’s kiss

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/10/us/politics/trump-campaign-election.html?unlocked_article_code=1.B04.pe37.CZ20vRWupYe_&smid=url-share

Highlights:

People around Trump describe him as "knocked off his bearings" by Harris.

Trump refers to Harris as a "bitch" in private.

Trump megadonors are being consumed by infighting over limited funds.

⁠Donors repeatedly asked Trump to remove JD Vance from the ticket, this is now confirmed.

Trump loves what JD has been doing recently and thinks his rally schedule is helping.

Trump's pollsters are now saying that Harris' numbers will probably keep improving through the DNC. They previously predicted only a few weeks of a bump for her at the start of the race.

He's fucked and he can't find a way out. 

[Js1 84935]

4 minutes ago, immamac said:

He's fucked and he can't find a way out. 

I actually am loving this. NYT with 3 punches at Trump - bad polling, campaign in disarray story and them reporting about the false helicopter story and him threatening to sue

I don’t trust the NYT not to both sides this again by tomorrow, but for today, they seem to be doing something productive 

[Captainant 27221]

6 minutes ago, immamac said:

He's fucked and he can't find a way out. 

It's gonna be interesting to see what kind of shit the christofascists pull to try and unfuck this 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

6 minutes ago, immamac said:

He's fucked and he can't find a way out. 

Pretty sure he’ll try to start a Civil War again 

[Js1 84935]

Fucking LOL at Trump attacking Miriam Adelson as a RINO through a staffer (after her $18m in ads via her Super PAC) because Ike Perlmutter was butthurt about something with a rival super PAC he backs 

[Red Five 40571]

57 minutes ago, TexPx said:

Idoits don’t know the demographics of Swifties.

“Congratulations! You will get every 12-16 girl excited for nothing”

[SaucyJack 3473]

3 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Pavarotti is a tenor, Paganini was a composer. 

…and Truganini was a song by Midnight Oil

 

 

[Js1 84935]

 

[Upgrayedd 5797]

3 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Pavarotti is a tenor, Paganini was a composer. 

[Chopper 17038]

8 hours ago, TexEx15 said:

It was one thing to read but it’s another to hear it.

 

His pleading for Biden will lead to epic mockery at the Democratic Convention.

 

6 hours ago, C-Man said:

Doubling down on ChopperGate. 

"What the fuck did you do now," my wife wanted to know.

 

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

On question after question, the poll finds that voters don’t seem to have any major reservations about her. A majority say that she’s honest and intelligent; that she brings the right kind of change and has the temperament to be president; and that she has a clear vision for the country. A majority doesn’t think she’s too far to the left, either: Only 44 percent of likely voters say she’s too liberal or progressive, compared with 44 percent who say she’s not too far either way and another 6 percent who say she isn’t progressive enough. We didn’t need to ask whether voters thought she was too old to be an effective president.

Half the country, or less, doesn't even know who Walz is yet. Big bump in the polls incoming and I can't believe (well, yes I can) Trump has advisors stupid enough to think Harris wouldn't get a post-convention bounce. (Trump prefers to hire people dumber than him or extremely subservient.)

 

39 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1416130/share-of-us-respondents-who-consider-themselves-taylor-swift-fans-age/#:~:text=Share of U.S. respondents who,fans in 2023%2C by age&text=According to the results of,or older stated the same.

 

This doesn’t include kids who can’t vote, but her biggest chunk of fans are millennials. News flash, they can vote. She’s been performing for almost 20 years. Women who were teenagers when she sang country have literally grown up with her. 

Anecdotal: my wife is 43, my sister in law is 45, and they went to see Taylor together. And my SiL has been signing her to her 7 year old for awhile now. Her fans are introducing their kids to her dude. Did you think her endorsement last election was a big nothing-burger? Then why the fuck is the right so triggered?

Yep. I'm anxious to see how many get on the call, how many volunteer, and how many donate. It'll probably be the first time donating or volunteering for many of them. Women under 50 are uniting for Kamala and fired up, except of course for the nutty trad wives.

[Biff Tannen 45384]

1 hour ago, TexPx said:

Idoits don’t know the demographics of Swifties.

“Congratulations! You will get every 12-16 girl excited for nothing”

Yeah, this is wrong. 

[BurntOrange&White 39187]

50 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1416130/share-of-us-respondents-who-consider-themselves-taylor-swift-fans-age/#:~:text=Share of U.S. respondents who,fans in 2023%2C by age&text=According to the results of,or older stated the same.

 

This doesn’t include kids who can’t vote, but her biggest chunk of fans are millennials. News flash, they can vote. She’s been performing for almost 20 years. Women who were teenagers when she sang country have literally grown up with her. 

Anecdotal: my wife is 43, my sister in law is 45, and they went to see Taylor together. And my SiL has been signing her to her 7 year old for awhile now. Her fans are introducing their kids to her dude. Did you think her endorsement last election was a big nothing-burger? Then why the fuck is the right so triggered?

She's huge with women in general, perhaps not boomer women but every other generation she is. 

[TexArcher 37373]

Okay, I'll say it.

All this pronouncing Trump dead in the water makes me a little nervous.

I can't even point to exactly why.  Maybe it's because it sounds too much like 2016?  Maybe I'm afraid that public overconfidence from Dems might lead to some folks staying home, thinking it's in the bag?

I just don't think it's in the bag.  Some of this bump is likely to be temporary and there is a long way to go, and potentially a lot of fuckery between the polls now and the voting booths.

I'm still concerned, dudes.

 

Edited August 10 by TexArcher

[Biff Tannen 45384]

1 minute ago, TexArcher said:

Okay, I'll say it.

All this pronouncing Trump dead in the water makes me a little nervous.

I can't even point to exactly why.  Maybe it's because it sounds too much like 2016?  Maybe I'm afraid that public overconfidence from Dems might lead to some folks staying home, thinking it's in the bag?

I just don't think it's in the bag.  Some of this bump is likely to be temporary and there is a long way to go, and potentially a lot of fuckery between the polls now and the voting booths.

I'm still concerned, dudes.

 

As you should be. Turnout is still what matters. We need to keep the pedal to the floor. Their side will still show up, even if they are depressed. They will see it as their last chance (which it probably is). Now is our time to crush them. 

[Mo Horn 8768]

Just now, TexArcher said:

Okay, I'll say it.

All this pronouncing Trump dead in the water makes me a little nervous.

I can't even point to exactly why.  Maybe it's because it sounds too much like 2016?  Maybe I'm afraid that public overconfidence from Dems might lead to some folks staying home, thinking it's in the bag?

I just don't think it's in the bag.  Some of this bump is likely to be temporary and there is a long way to go, and potentially a lot of fuckery between the polls now and the voting booths.

I'm still nervous.

Absolutely. Millions will still vote for him, and with the EC anything can happen. So far, it appears that Harris and Walz understand this and are saying this over and over. Keep the pressure on until the day after the election. Run through the finish line. 

[Francisco 2.0 32289]

3 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

I'm still concerned, dudes.

 

 

I don't believe anyone here is not concerned.  We've all experienced everything since 2016. 

[HenryJames 65793]

13 hours ago, HenryJames said:

Mr. Holden said that he called Mr. Brown to compare notes. Mr. Brown told him he had never been in a helicopter with Mr. Trump.

“I said, ‘Willie, you know what? That’s me!’” Mr. Holden said. “And I told him, “You’re a short Black guy and I’m a tall Black guy — but we all look alike, right?”

Mr. Holden gave his own height as 6-foot-1. “Willie has to be about 5-foot-6. Maybe 5-foot-5. He comes up to about my shoulders. And he’s bald. And I’m not bald.”

Mr. Brown, he said, “just laughed and laughed.”

Mr. Holden, summing up his assessment of Mr. Trump’s recollection, said: “I just think he makes things up. That’s what I think. He never thought anybody’s going to check.”

…

Asked if Mr. Trump might have confused the two California politicians because they are both Black, Mr. Brown said, “I wouldn’t want to conclude that he can’t tell Black people apart, because I’d hate for him to think that I’m Beyoncé.”

And then he burst out laughing.

[immamac 42338]

2 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Okay, I'll say it.

All this pronouncing Trump dead in the water makes me a little nervous.

I can't even point to exactly why.  Maybe it's because it sounds too much like 2016?  Maybe I'm afraid that public overconfidence from Dems might lead to some folks staying home, thinking it's in the bag?

I just don't think it's in the bag.  Some of this bump is likely to be temporary and there is a long way to go, and potentially a lot of fuckery between the polls now and the voting booths.

I'm still concerned, dudes.

 

I don't think anyone is overconfident about anything. I think people are going for the jugular. It's not a business is taken care of narrative it's a snuff out evil until it goes away narrative. 

Trump being dead in the water is obvious. Have you seen him? He's completely flailing and unhinged. He's got supporters jumping ship like rats from a sinking vessel. That doesn't mean we have stopped firing on the ship, make sure the ship goes down and there are no rafts. 

[GhostOfTomJoad 9264]

Nobody's taking this lightly or truly thinks this is "in the bag." The EC by itself guarantees fuckery will still be in effect. But the undeniable facts at this point is that the Dems are killing it organizationally, they have a clear message for the American people, and their ticket is a combination of inspirational, aspirational, and relatable people. 

Ain't nobody going to take Trump and the MAGAts lightly until he's room temperature.

[Dahobbs 17314]

4 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Okay, I'll say it.

All this pronouncing Trump dead in the water makes me a little nervous.

I can't even point to exactly why.  Maybe it's because it sounds too much like 2016?  Maybe I'm afraid that public overconfidence from Dems might lead to some folks staying home, thinking it's in the bag?

I just don't think it's in the bag.  Some of this bump is likely to be temporary and there is a long way to go, and potentially a lot of fuckery between the polls now and the voting booths.

I'm still concerned, dudes.

 

Some optimism for you: In 2016 people thought Hillary would win because it was impossible for someone like Trump to win. It just didn't happen. There were too many gaffs, too many scandals. But people weren't generally jazzed or enthusiastic about voting for Hillary. I don't think you see that sort of voter apathy again. People now know Trump can win if they don't vote. And people want to vote for Kamala. 

[Francisco 2.0 32289]

 

 

 

[DigglerontheHoof 20919]

3 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Okay, I'll say it.

All this pronouncing Trump dead in the water makes me a little nervous.

I can't even point to exactly why.  Maybe it's because it sounds too much like 2016?  Maybe I'm afraid that public overconfidence from Dems might lead to some folks staying home, thinking it's in the bag?

I just don't think it's in the bag.  Some of this bump is likely to be temporary and there is a long way to go, and potentially a lot of fuckery between the polls now and the voting booths.

I'm still concerned, dudes.

 

The excitement for Harris/Walz dwarfs what the 2016 ticket had.  I voted 3rd party in 2016, this time I'm donating to the POTUS candidates and volunteering at a Harris phone bank.  

And Trump 2024 is an old, miserable fuck. 

But as Biff said, the turnout has to be there. 

[Js1 84935]

11 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Yeah, this is wrong. 

I assume the quotation marks is what republicans are saying. 

[Homercles 10205]

Some of y’all mofos need to watch Hunt For Red October again

[TexArcher 37373]

Just now, immamac said:

Trump being dead in the water is obvious. Have you seen him? He's completely flailing and unhinged. He's got supporters jumping ship like rats from a sinking vessel. That doesn't mean we have stopped firing on the ship, make sure the ship goes down and there are no rafts. 

Yeah, but he's been flailing and unhinged the whole time.  He definitely spiraling on a personal level, but I don't think that means he can't win.  He's still capable of pressing the right buttons on camera, as we saw in the debate.

I guess my main concern is this: I've said all along that I believe Trump still has a silent voting bloc that does not show up in the polls, but will show up on election day, again.  And I just don't trust young liberals to show up at the same level.  I think this election may be as simple as voter turnout, and there are things Republicans can and will do to interfere with that, compounding the natural laxness of a couple of generations behind us.

This should be a W.  But I just can't feel too good about it yet.  Trump is cagey and willing to fight dirty, and Democrats have blown layups before.